Jays extend $15.8M QO to Estrada

[MikeM]

Why is it horrible mismanagement to make a playoff run with your own star players??? I think some people would only be happy if we're constantly ranked #1 on the prospect rankings list rather than actually using our best players to try to win a world series. By your logic we should have traded away Bautista and Edwin this past summer. I wonder how our magical 2-3 months would have gone if that was the case. Maybe it would have set us up for great success in 2018, but by that time we'd have to trade away Pompey, Travis, Osuna and Stroman in order to re-stock the farm for 2021.

How about, for once, we try to line up the ages of our quality players so that we don't end up with a bunch of young talent that isn't quite there yet tied to a couple aging stars who are soon to depart. We've seen proof positive that any belief that a playoff run would lead to the vault being opened is complete fantasy; we cannot keep trying to do that. We need to be more like the teams that cycle their top-end talent into controllable years, because we do not and will not have the asset base to say "welp, we could have had multiple top prospects, but we were much happier watching an MVP candidate toil on a 75 win team."

And yes, I think that it's quite likely that we would be in a better position if, in 2012, we had opted to trade the vets, rather than opting to try to build around them, forcing us into a situation where we spunked all of our future because their window was almost closed. And that's with it having worked just about as well as could reasonably be imagined. Difference with Donaldson is that we do not have the assets to do it again before his contract expires.

I think it would be hard to find a better match of young talent to go with quality veterans than what we have now. Pillar, Travis, Stroman are pretty much 4 WAR players. Osuna looks like a quality closer even though it'd be better if he was starting. Then you still have Goins and whatever Pompey turns into next year.

It's pretty hard to win the WS. We were certainly at least a top 3 team in the MLB last year. There are arguments that could be made that we were the best team that lost out due to the normal variance that occurs in the playoffs.

I also cringe every time it's insinuated that we mortgaged our future when the only guys we gave up with talent are Hoffman and Norris. I don't care about guys like Boyd. They suck.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I'd suggest it goes both ways, Schad. On one hand, we've seen proof positive that winning and making Rogers a bunch of money results in just that. We've also seen proof positive that Rogers generally isn't all that interested in trading away their marquee stars for draft picks and trying to line everything up like you've suggested, and would rather milk the names of a few stars while bemoaning playing in an unfair conference that always has them finishing .500 or so but never actively trying to be worse than that, with AA's essentially accelerating of the draft process was about as close as they've come to it. Basically, we've seen proof positive that Rogers isn't particularly willing to do anything to build a winner and the only argument either direction has to offer, be it farm-building and then waiting on that farm or big spending after cashing in on a farm, is that there is hopefully a first time for everything.

Rogers seems pretty pleased to test the limits of infinite time, however, so long as they keep making money. They know there are lots of sports fans in Toronto that would drop for at least a few seasons if they actually started operating like a small market team, and the risk there is that if the farm building didn't work out, they could be gone like the rest of the fans around Canada, as witnessed by this season's resurgence. They also know that there is risk in spending big, so they'll spend just enough to outspend other teams and get their marquee names, but will also cycle prospects while they wait. That's what Rogers does. The only real hope is that the Jays find some brilliant GM who can grow a farm team into a contender in about a 3 or 4 year span.

[Schad]

I think it would be hard to find a better match of young talent to go with quality veterans than what we have now. Pillar, Travis, Stroman are pretty much 4 WAR players. Osuna looks like a quality closer even though it'd be better if he was starting. Then you still have Goins and whatever Pompey turns into next year.

Well, you shouldn't try to do it with a gun to your head in the form of the imminent departure of your star player(s). The mix of young talent we have now, good though they are, proved insufficient alongside our (grossly underpaid) group of vets, resulting in us shipping most of the farm out to acquire necessary reinforcements, and with general agreement that our window will have been two years long, if we're lucky. That's really not ideal.

[Schad]

I'd suggest it goes both ways, Schad. On one hand, we've seen proof positive that winning and making Rogers a bunch of money results in just that. We've also seen proof positive that Rogers generally isn't all that interested in trading away their marquee stars for draft picks and trying to line everything up like you've suggested, and would rather milk the names of a few stars while bemoaning playing in an unfair conference that always has them finishing .500 or so but never actively trying to be worse than that, with AA's essentially accelerating of the draft process was about as close as they've come to it. Basically, we've seen proof positive that Rogers isn't particularly willing to do anything to build a winner and the only argument either direction has to offer, be it farm-building and then waiting on that farm or big spending after cashing in on a farm, is that there is hopefully a first time for everything.

Rogers seems pretty pleased to test the limits of infinite time, however, so long as they keep making money. They know there are lots of sports fans in Toronto that would drop for at least a few seasons if they actually started operating like a small market team, and the risk there is that if the farm building didn't work out, they could be gone like the rest of the fans around Canada, as witnessed by this season's resurgence. They also know that there is risk in spending big, so they'll spend just enough to outspend other teams and get their marquee names, but will also cycle prospects while they wait. That's what Rogers does.

The hope is that Shapiro can convince them to think more than twelve months ahead, as AA did briefly, but have them actually stick to the timeline. That may ultimately be too much to ask; it's also the only thing within their parameters that will ever result in more success than an occasional flash-in-the-pan.

[I_Like_Dirt]

The hope is that Shapiro can convince them to think more than twelve months ahead, as AA did briefly, but have them actually stick to the timeline.

I seem to recall some saying about **** in one hand and wishing in the other. This is every bit as wishful thinking as Rogers paying for Price was, imo. Describing Rogers as being "briefly" sold on it epitomizes Rogers' quarterly capitalism.

Shapiro hasn't exactly been the type of draft wizard to quickly restock the farm, either. To me, he looks a bit more like a hatchet man brought in to keep salaries in line, or even slash them while the Canadian dollar takes a hit, while trying to keep the team competitive enough that revenues don't drop while the team has significant expenses renovating Skydome. I think he understands the importance of farm systems, but Rogers is out for finances right now especially and Shapiro has a history of quickly cutting salaries while not bottoming out, really. There is simply too much risk in bottoming things out for Rogers to be interested in that type of path for too long. Even if they bite for a year or two, eventually they will get antsy. Wait out 3 more years and risk a strike at the wrong time, or go for it now and reap some profits from a bunch of fans rushing to be disappointed yet again. Rogers hasn't chosen differently a single time yet, and have had the opportunity to make that kind of choice more times than they've had the choice between spending on a winner or not.

[Schad]

The hope is that Shapiro can convince them to think more than twelve months ahead, as AA did briefly, but have them actually stick to the timeline.

I seem to recall some saying about **** in one hand and wishing in the other. This is every bit as wishful thinking as Rogers paying for Price was, imo. Describing Rogers as being "briefly" sold on it epitomizes Rogers' quarterly capitalism.

Shapiro hasn't exactly been the type of draft wizard to quickly restock the farm, either. To me, he looks a bit more like a hatchet man brought in to keep salaries in line, or even slash them while the Canadian dollar takes a hit, while trying to keep the team competitive enough that revenues don't drop while the team has significant expenses renovating Skydome. I think he understands the importance of farm systems, but Rogers is out for finances right now especially and Shapiro has a history of quickly cutting salaries while not bottoming out, really. There is simply too much risk in bottoming things out for Rogers to be interested in that type of path for too long. Even if they bite for a year or two, eventually they will get antsy. Wait out 3 more years and risk a strike at the wrong time, or go for it now and reap some profits from a bunch of fans rushing to be disappointed yet again. Rogers hasn't chosen differently a single time yet, and have had the opportunity to make that kind of choice more times than they've had the choice between spending on a winner or not.

Bottoming out isn't necessary, just re-cycling talent. Hell, if that's what they're looking to avoid, situations in which our best players walk for damned near nothing is far more likely to result in us having a period of several utterly bleak seasons.

[MikeM]

I think it would be hard to find a better match of young talent to go with quality veterans than what we have now. Pillar, Travis, Stroman are pretty much 4 WAR players. Osuna looks like a quality closer even though it'd be better if he was starting. Then you still have Goins and whatever Pompey turns into next year.

Well, you shouldn't try to do it with a gun to your head in the form of the imminent departure of your star player(s). The mix of young talent we have now, good though they are, proved insufficient alongside our (grossly underpaid) group of vets, resulting in us shipping most of the farm out to acquire necessary reinforcements, and with general agreement that our window will have been two years long, if we're lucky. That's really not ideal.

God the talk of "windows" is so futile. We didn't even have a window this off-season until AA came up with Donaldson, Travis, Martin, etc.

Realistically, the only window you got is when BOS and NYY suck. So we took our shot this year and we'll take it again next year. And if Jose and EE are still good, we'll take it again the year after that. And if they're not good, we'll move on and hopefully find some other talent and create another window.

There's so many ways to build a good team in baseball (especially when you have a 140M payroll) that windows really shouldn't exist.

[Skin Blues]

The mix of young talent we have now, good though they are, proved insufficient alongside our (grossly underpaid) group of vets, resulting in us shipping most of the farm out to acquire necessary reinforcements

The fact that we reinforced with David Price doesn't prove we were insufficient. It proved that management thought we had a team that could compete in the playoffs and they wanted to go balls to the wall. Almost every playoff-bound team makes trades to benefit themselves in the short-term. The Royals added Zobrist and Cueto. Does that mean they were proven to be insufficient?? If so, then what team didn't have an insufficient player mix??

As for dumping Reyes and taking on Tulo, that move makes sense even if we aren't a playoff contender in 2015. Making trades to improve your team is not a sign of weakness. This idea that we have a limited window of opportunity is just flat out wrong. We have probably the best left side of the infield in all of baseball locked up for 3+ more years and both in their prime, not to mention Stroman and Travis and Pompey and Pillar and Osuna and Martin and... you get the idea. It's a pretty enviable position to be in. Yeah, it'd be nice to have Norris back, but his presence doesn't make or break this team.

[Schad]

The fact that we reinforced with David Price doesn't prove we were insufficient. It proved that management thought we had a team that could compete in the playoffs and they wanted to go balls to the wall. Almost every playoff-bound team makes trades to benefit themselves in the short-term. The Royals added Zobrist and Cueto. Does that mean they were proven to be insufficient?? If so, then what team didn't have an insufficient player mix??

As for dumping Reyes and taking on Tulo, that move makes sense even if we aren't a playoff contender in 2015. Making trades to improve your team is not a sign of weakness. This idea that we have a limited window of opportunity is just flat out wrong. We have probably the best left side of the infield in all of baseball locked up for 3+ more years and both in their prime, not to mention Stroman and Travis and Pompey and Pillar and Osuna and Martin and... you get the idea. It's a pretty enviable position to be in. Yeah, it'd be nice to have Norris back, but his presence doesn't make or break this team.

We absolutely have talent. We don't have enough of it, and we don't have the resources to get much more of it. Hence our plan went from "balls to the wall to make the playoffs in 2015 and 2016" to "balls to the wall to make the playoffs in 2015, and I guess we'll just figure it out after that".

[Schad]

u got is when BOS and NYY suck. So we took our shot this year and we'll take it again next year. And if Jose and EE are still good, we'll take it again the year after that. And if they're not good, we'll move on and hopefully find some other talent and create another window.

Tampa managed to win the division in two seasons where the Yankees/Red Sox won 95 and 89 games (heh, with the order of finish swapped in the second year). We don't need to wait until they suck, and we don't need to take one-off shots.

There's so many ways to build a good team in baseball (especially when you have a 140M payroll) that windows really shouldn't exist.

They do exist if you have an older team, though. $140m doesn't go that far with a bunch of veterans.

[MikeM]

I don't really know what the alternative is when you have as many good players as we have. Certainly at this point it doesn't make much sense to trade Jose and EE when we're a top 3 team in the MLB. If anything our budget should go up and we should just bludgeon our way to a WS by signing tons of players who are not really worth their contracts but are still good players.

KC just threw **** at the wall for a couple years and ended up winning it all. They had Rios in RF and relied heavily on Edinson Volquez ffs. They had their worst hitter batting leadoff.

In baseball, you just have to build a team good enough to make the playoffs and then pray to god. We could lose EE and Jose tomorrow and still have an outside shot at the playoffs with the rest of the talent on the roster.

[Skin Blues]

our plan went from "balls to the wall to make the playoffs in 2015 and 2016" to "balls to the wall to make the playoffs in 2015, and I guess we'll just figure it out after that"

What exactly did we do that shut the door on 2016? We retained Bautista and Edwin, we added Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Saunders, Colabello, Revere, and Travis all within the past 12 months. And we sacrificed 2016 because we traded away Hoffman and Norris? Really? I don't know why you are so dead set on this sky-is-falling business.

[Schad]

our plan went from "balls to the wall to make the playoffs in 2015 and 2016" to "balls to the wall to make the playoffs in 2015, and I guess we'll just figure it out after that"

What exactly did we do that shut the door on 2016? We retained Bautista and Edwin, we added Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Saunders, Colabello, Revere, and Travis all within the past 12 months. And we sacrificed 2016 because we traded away Hoffman and Norris? Really? I don't know why you are so dead set on this sky-is-falling business.

We have a shot in 2016, just not as good of one, because we currently have only two starters on the roster, multiple holes in the bullpen, and a sum of money to fix those problems which doesn't actually go that far when adding players through free agency. Trading away the likes of Norris for a rental hurts, because (assuming he wasn't himself able to step in) that's the sort of asset one would normally be using to get a high-calibre pitcher capable of helping in both years.

[Kurtz]

Cole Hamels refusing to come here really hurt us in that respect, sadly.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Bottoming out isn't necessary, just re-cycling talent. Hell, if that's what they're looking to avoid, situations in which our best players walk for damned near nothing is far more likely to result in us having a period of several utterly bleak seasons.

The Jays haven't exactly been a model franchise for getting value from their talent before it leaves or declines. Recycling talent? The Jays have only bothered with that ever once their guys are either so old, or hurt, or in a salary situation where they aren't worth much, or simply leave for nothing and then replace them with whatever farm they have left. It isn't like the Indians have some amazing stock of a farm team after cycling talent for several years now.

As far as your ideas on how to build a successful MLB team, I agree, actually. My point is that pointing out to others that Rogers won't go for big spending and they shouldn't dream as it's an impossibility is entirely hypocritical when you're spending your time doing exactly the same thing dreaming that Rogers will magically decide to build the team the way you want them to, which they have never really shown anything more than a fleeting (quarterly) interest in doing. And quarterly capitalism is exactly why the Jays don't usually get huge hauls for their vets despite cycling through variations on .500 seasons for decade after decade: it doesn't make sense when you have the name and branding in the bag already. Rogers has shown nothing more than a desire to try and accelerate things without spending more while never going for a stretch without a few names riding the way and making passive attempts at building a winner rather than heavily investing for a long-term farm project.

[The_Hater]

Jon Heyman says that Price is no longer in play for the Jays and it comes down to Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers. Does that make Estrada more important to keep if it's true? Losing MB, Estrada and Price is a pretty big loss.

It doesn't matter if it's Estrada or some other similar pitcher so no, I don't see keeping Estrada as more important if Price leaves. Buerhle bascially as replaced and upgraded in September/October with Stroman's return so they'll need to find 2 decent starters somewhere. And if they're in looking like contenders again next summer, the option of trading for another starter will be there again.

[The_Hater]

We have a shot in 2016, just not as good of one, because we currently have only two starters on the roster, multiple holes in the bullpen, and a sum of money to fix those problems which doesn't actually go that far when adding players through free agency. Trading away the likes of Norris for a rental hurts, because (assuming he wasn't himself able to step in) that's the sort of asset one would normally be using to get a high-calibre pitcher capable of helping in both years.

Schad every MLB team has some holes to fill in the off-season, the Jays just happen to have all those holes at one position. But if taken on a whole, it's not that many.

Every single starting position player is back (with a trade surplus present if needed) and the bullpen has all it's main players back. Plus the team played last season without Stroman who will now be available for a full season.

Yes 2 new bodies are needed in the starting rotation but overall we have the best team in baseball from 2015 (by far) coming back with just two holes and they have the money and assets to fix those holes. I just don't see why anyone would think this team doesn't have a very good shot in 2016? An average pitching staff coupled with this lineup will almost certainly be a playoff team.