The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1)

[JulesWinnfield]

If you root for any other team in the league right now with championship aspirations it's entirely deflating watching this all unfold. It's still incredibly hard to believe this is sustainable, but damn.

The most interesting aspect about watching this all unfold is that for some reason around all star break last year, Curry basically came to the conclusion that he was going to start gunning double digit 3 attempts every night and push this volume aspect into totally uncharted territory. He continued that on through the playoffs and now into this year. The fact that he has done so without sacrificing efficiency (in fact he's shooting them even better) is just crazy. Why stop at 10 attempts at this point? I feel like he's going to keep tinkering with this and may not be done yet. He certainly doesn't have trouble getting his own shot. Not only is he the GOAT shooter, hes on the short list of GOAT ball handlers. The way he completely warps your defense with the attention he must get so far from the bucket is crazy, totally mangles the structure of your D

[giordunk]

Is Curry higher than Durant on the All-Time list?

Prisoners of the moment...

Maybe it's possible Curry eventually surpasses Durant, but it's entirely unlikely. Curry is in the midst of his third truly elite season, Durant is in the midst of his sixth. from what I've seen most people agree that KD's MVP season was slightly better than Curry's. Curry is actually a few months older than Durant and has scored almost 7,000 fewer points, that's a huge gap to overcome. Unless Durant breaks down or Curry ends up with an insanely long prime, I'd say there's almost no shot of it happening.

Would another ring do it for you? I think Curry's 'peak' last year is already higher than Durant, and if he sustains close to 90% of his production this season, 2016 is his new peak.

[nate33]

Is Curry higher than Durant on the All-Time list?

Prisoners of the moment...

Maybe it's possible Curry eventually surpasses Durant, but it's entirely unlikely. Curry is in the midst of his third truly elite season, Durant is in the midst of his sixth. from what I've seen most people agree that KD's MVP season was slightly better than Curry's. Curry is actually a few months older than Durant and has scored almost 7,000 fewer points, that's a huge gap to overcome. Unless Durant breaks down or Curry ends up with an insanely long prime, I'd say there's almost no shot of it happening.

Would another ring do it for you? I think Curry's 'peak' last year is already higher than Durant, and if he sustains close to 90% of his production this season, 2016 is his new peak.

I'd take Durant's season 2 years ago just barely over Curry last year. But Curry appears to be taking it to a new level. Surely, he can't keep up this torrid pace all season, but it seems likely that he'll post better overall numbers this year than last year. If that's the case, then maybe Curry peaks higher than Durant. Durant has been at an elite level for longer so he has that in his favor, but Durant also has foot issues which may curtail his career. Curry's peak might last a long, long time. Elite, hyper-efficient, highly skilled PG's have a track record of playing well through their late 30's (think Stockton and Nash).

[sisibilio]

Would another ring do it for you? I think Curry's 'peak' last year is already higher than Durant, and if he sustains close to 90% of his production this season, 2016 is his new peak.

IDK about last year but the level he's playing this season (small sample size and all) i agree is better than anything we've seen from Durant so far.

[sisibilio]

I'd take Durant's season 2 years ago just barely over Curry last year. But Curry appears to be taking it to a new level. Surely, he can't keep up this torrid pace all season, but it seems likely that he'll post better overall numbers this year than last year. If that's the case, then maybe Curry peaks higher than Durant. Durant has been at an elite level for longer so he has that in his favor, but Durant also has foot issues which may curtail his career. Curry's peak might last a long, long time. Elite, hyper-efficient, highly skilled PG's have a track record of playing well through their late 30's (think Stockton and Nash).

And it's not like he displays a superhuman physical effort a la Westbrook every game, most of the time he's just walking-jogging up and down the court.

[nate33]

I'd take Durant's season 2 years ago just barely over Curry last year. But Curry appears to be taking it to a new level. Surely, he can't keep up this torrid pace all season, but it seems likely that he'll post better overall numbers this year than last year. If that's the case, then maybe Curry peaks higher than Durant. Durant has been at an elite level for longer so he has that in his favor, but Durant also has foot issues which may curtail his career. Curry's peak might last a long, long time. Elite, hyper-efficient, highly skilled PG's have a track record of playing well through their late 30's (think Stockton and Nash).

And it's not like he displays a superhuman physical effort a la Westbrook every game, most of the time he's just walking-jogging up and down the court.

Yeah. And he's playing on a stacked team that blows people out all the time so he's averaging just 33 minutes a game. And he will probably get to take a couple of games off each year to rest any minor injuries.

[Dr Spaceman]

.

SSB,

Curry is at 37.0 PER right now. I remember Anthony Davis' PER being around 37 at this point last year, but I'm wondering whether you have this info on hand for a quick spreadsheet lookup or something. If not I can dig through the Davis thread from last year.

So through 10 games, Curry is at 37 PER, what would you say the % chance is he breaks the all-time record?

[JulesWinnfield]

I don't know. I look at Golden State and don't think the roster is nearly as stacked as others do, at least in comparison to other teams who have achieved a similar level of dominance. I still struggle to explain just how they are this dominant in that conference and now looking even better with a fill-in coach. I don't want to be robbed of one single Stephen curry viewing experience, but it would be an interesting test case seeing how this group would perform should he be forced to miss a decent chunk of time. His net on/offs have been pretty absurd the last few years.

I think Curry's impact is probably even greater than most account for even though we know his impact is massive. The way he completely warps the spacing of your defense certainly has impact that doesn't necessarily get fully appreciated statistically

[The-Power]

@Apricot, in the meantime, analyzed some more Warriors' plays on his mission to reveal the Warriors' - extended - playbook this season. Great read as always, I'll just leave the links for you guys.

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2015/11/7/9687124/warriors-vs-nuggets-highlight-triangle-offense-harrison-barnes-festus-ezeli?_ga=1.166833854.1449004994.1402600932
-> One Play: Warriors + Triangle Offense = Barnes 3 (Post-Cross/Guard Squeeze)
vs. Denver

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2015/11/8/9690796/warriors-vs-kings-2015-highlight-video-klay-thompson-three?_ga=1.29292600.549428171.1401175904
-> Explain One Play: Warriors + Floppy = Klay 3 (Floppy)
vs. Sacramento

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2015/11/10/9703406/warriors-versus-pistons-2015-highlight-video-defense-andre-drummond?_ga=1.29292600.549428171.1401175904
-> Explain One Play: Warriors Swarm Drummond (Post Double Teams)
vs. Detroit

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2015/11/12/9720054/warriors-vs-grizzlies-2015-highlight-video-stephen-curry-screen-barnes-dunk?_ga=1.257298703.549428171.1401175904
-> Explain One Play: Curry Screen = Barnes Dunk AGAIN (Warriors Rip)
vs. Memphis

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2015/11/13/9727110/warriors-vs-timberwolves-2015-highlight-video-stephen-curry-bank-shot
-> Explain One Play: Awesome Stephen Curry Bank Shot And-1
vs. Minnesota

[SideshowBob]

.

SSB,

Curry is at 37.0 PER right now. I remember Anthony Davis' PER being around 37 at this point last year, but I'm wondering whether you have this info on hand for a quick spreadsheet lookup or something. If not I can dig through the Davis thread from last year.

So through 10 games, Curry is at 37 PER, what would you say the % chance is he breaks the all-time record?

Used to have a spreadsheet but I lost it when I lost my old HDD and never made a new one.

Fortunately for us, the web archive has a screenshot of 2015 AD through 10 games and actually quite a bit more as well.

He was at 36.1 through 10 games, so pretty similar to current Steph. Throughout the seasons, it's not very difficult to find similar or better 10 game PER stretches (Lebron in 2010/13/14, Wade in 09, Jordan in 89, all hit >40 if I recall correctly). None of those seasons set the record funny enough (09 Lebron and 88 Jordan), so I'm always going to lean on the side of failing to set a new record.

Still, let's consider. I don't typically count the pre-TO/STL/BLK/ORB/DRB era stats, so I'm not going to consider Wilt's 31.82 from 63 or 31.74 from 62. 1988 Jordan's 31.71 is the mark to beat. Curry would need to sustain 30.99 for the remaining 72 games. Doesn't seem all that crazy given what he was able to do last season already; his shooting from all spots on the floor hasn't deviated that much aside from inside the lane, which might not be sustainable. On the flipside, he's currently at the highest scoring rate of all time; how reasonable is it to expect defenses to smarten up a little and start aggressively trapping and cutting off the head of the PnR at the top? Do they even need to? If they do adjust, the most frequent outcome would be that the teammates start performing even better offensively, to whatever marginal degree would be expected when more attention is focused on Curry. It's possible that once we see that equilibrium, Curry's volume is simply not enough to sustain a record PER pace. But does the 10 game head start give him enough of a buffer to hit the record anyway? I can't really see him dipping below 30 anytime soon.

I don't feel comfortable putting a percentage on it, but I'd at least say I think he's got a better chance than Davis did last year.

[SideshowBob]

So not only highest scoring rate of all time, but also highest TS% of all time among qualified players.

[WinisKing]

New Curry Band-wagoner signing in

Smoothest Bball player I've seen in a long time

[nate33]

I don't know. I look at Golden State and don't think the roster is nearly as stacked as others do, at least in comparison to other teams who have achieved a similar level of dominance. I still struggle to explain just how they are this dominant in that conference and now looking even better with a fill-in coach. I don't want to be robbed of one single Stephen curry viewing experience, but it would be an interesting test case seeing how this group would perform should he be forced to miss a decent chunk of time. His net on/offs have been pretty absurd the last few years.

I think Curry's impact is probably even greater than most account for even though we know his impact is massive. The way he completely warps the spacing of your defense certainly has impact that doesn't necessarily get fully appreciated statistically

Yeah, I suppose "stacked team" is a bit of an overstatement. He plays on a legitimately great team (thanks in great part to his efforts). The real point is that his team wins by such large margins that he doesn't have to play a ton of minutes.

[DreDay]

I'd take Durant's season 2 years ago just barely over Curry last year. But Curry appears to be taking it to a new level. Surely, he can't keep up this torrid pace all season, but it seems likely that he'll post better overall numbers this year than last year. If that's the case, then maybe Curry peaks higher than Durant. Durant has been at an elite level for longer so he has that in his favor, but Durant also has foot issues which may curtail his career. Curry's peak might last a long, long time. Elite, hyper-efficient, highly skilled PG's have a track record of playing well through their late 30's (think Stockton and Nash).

And it's not like he displays a superhuman physical effort a la Westbrook every game, most of the time he's just walking-jogging up and down the court.

Yeah. And he's playing on a stacked team that blows people out all the time so he's averaging just 33 minutes a game. And he will probably get to take a couple of games off each year to rest any minor injuries.

Stacked? It's a great defensive team for sure, but offensively this team is not good at all without Curry. I'm not even exaggerating, check the on-off court numbers and the games that Curry missed. It's brutal.

Saying stuff like this absolutely discredits what Curry is doing and attributes his work to the team he's on. That's incorrect in every way.

[JimmyTD3]

I don't know. I look at Golden State and don't think the roster is nearly as stacked as others do, at least in comparison to other teams who have achieved a similar level of dominance. I still struggle to explain just how they are this dominant in that conference and now looking even better with a fill-in coach. I don't want to be robbed of one single Stephen curry viewing experience, but it would be an interesting test case seeing how this group would perform should he be forced to miss a decent chunk of time. His net on/offs have been pretty absurd the last few years.

I think Curry's impact is probably even greater than most account for even though we know his impact is massive. The way he completely warps the spacing of your defense certainly has impact that doesn't necessarily get fully appreciated statistically

The reason a lot of people don't see this team as stacked is because we prop up players from previous generations, and de-value current players. It's that simple.

Guys like Pippen, Rodman, Kukoc, Kerr...we think back to those guys and we think "legendary role players". Because they played 20 years ago, and won titles. Don't get me wrong. Those guys were incredible, especially Pip and Rodman. But are they really THAT much better than the current Warriors players? If better at all?

Aside from Harrison Barnes, everyone in our starting lineup is either an All-Star or an All-NBA Defender. Then you have Iguodala as an incredible 6th man. You have Ezeli, a starting caliber C, as a backup. The group of: Livingston, Barbosa, and Speights are all fantastic role players, and I challenge you to find me a better 7-8-9 rotation.

I don't think people realize, for example, how good Draymond Green is quite yet. Klay is struggling, but when he gets back to form, he's an incredible player. Iggy is a Finals MVP. Bogut is a defensive anchor. Barnes (the one un-spectacular player we have) is a fantastic glue guy.

There is a lot of talent on this team

[SideshowBob]

Looking at the rosters, how good does the board think the Warriors are compared to the 96/97 Bulls? Curry and Jordan both look like +6.5ish guys to me, but what about the rest of the casts?

Of the guys playing >20 MPG, almost every single one of them is a strong highly portable two-way player.

Klay (hobbled, but still lots of utility)

3P shooting/spacing
Movement off the ball
Isolation/slashing game
Post scoring
+
Length and discipline on defensive end
Defensive rebounding

Dray

3P shooting/spacing at the 4/5 spots
High-post passing/spacing (he's playing Bogut's role rather well and leading the team in assists)
Movement/PnR finisher
PnR playmaking
+
Rim/lane protection
Single coverage versatility
Movement/floor coverage
Defensive glass

Iggy

Solid PnR playmaker
Cutting/finishing
Adequate 3P shooting when left open
Baseline isolation ability
Fosters ball movement
+
Perimeter coverage
Aggressive in the passing lanes
Single coverage versatility
Movement/floor coverage

Its early in the season, so I won't give them concrete ratings yet, but they all look like +2.5-3.5 guys who have offensive skillsets that are highly additive. They don't really interfere with the games of others, while simultaneously being super valuable on defense (Dray/Iggy/Klay). All three are all-star caliber (I think that threshold is hit at around +2) and then furthermore, even Barnes might have a case IMO (iso scoring/spacing/shooting/low-post game/etc.), he's only a bit behind that first group. Ezeli's clearly improving and might be the team's best off-ball finisher, as well as becoming a force on the offensive glass. On top of that, the bench unit has been underwhelming, Bogut has played just 38 minutes, and he might be their best per-minute defensive player (at worst he's the 3rd best following Dray/Iggy, but he's their best rim/lane protector) and is a key cog as a high-post hub in their offense. And despite all of this they're sporting a 15.5 SRS through 8 games (I'll do an HCA adjustment and post their numbers in the Curry thread later).

This is a **** stacked team. Their top-end talent after Curry is insane.

[nate33]

And it's not like he displays a superhuman physical effort a la Westbrook every game, most of the time he's just walking-jogging up and down the court.

Yeah. And he's playing on a stacked team that blows people out all the time so he's averaging just 33 minutes a game. And he will probably get to take a couple of games off each year to rest any minor injuries.

Stacked? It's a great defensive team for sure, but offensively this team is not good at all without Curry. I'm not even exaggerating, check the on-off court numbers and the games that Curry missed. It's brutal.

Saying stuff like this absolutely discredits what Curry is doing and attributes his work to the team he's on. That's incorrect in every way.

Read what I posted just ahead of your post. I walked back my "stacked" remark. My point wasn't that Curry was benefiting from the talent of players around him. It was merely that, (thank in no small part to Curry), Golden State is blowing teams out so much that Curry doesn't have to play a lot of minutes. Golden State is perfectly constructed to amplify Curry's talent, but I agree that Golden State isn't really a great team without him. Take Curry away and they'd probably struggle to play .500 ball.

[cpower]

I don't know. I look at Golden State and don't think the roster is nearly as stacked as others do, at least in comparison to other teams who have achieved a similar level of dominance. I still struggle to explain just how they are this dominant in that conference and now looking even better with a fill-in coach. I don't want to be robbed of one single Stephen curry viewing experience, but it would be an interesting test case seeing how this group would perform should he be forced to miss a decent chunk of time. His net on/offs have been pretty absurd the last few years.

I think Curry's impact is probably even greater than most account for even though we know his impact is massive. The way he completely warps the spacing of your defense certainly has impact that doesn't necessarily get fully appreciated statistically

The reason a lot of people don't see this team as stacked is because we prop up players from previous generations, and de-value current players. It's that simple.

Guys like Pippen, Rodman, Kukoc, Kerr...we think back to those guys and we think "legendary role players". Because they played 20 years ago, and won titles. Don't get me wrong. Those guys were incredible, especially Pip and Rodman. But are they really THAT much better than the current Warriors players? If better at all?

Aside from Harrison Barnes, everyone in our starting lineup is either an All-Star or an All-NBA Defender. Then you have Iguodala as an incredible 6th man. You have Ezeli, a starting caliber C, as a backup. The group of: Livingston, Barbosa, and Speights are all fantastic role players, and I challenge you to find me a better 7-8-9 rotation.

I don't think people realize, for example, how good Draymond Green is quite yet. Klay is struggling, but when he gets back to form, he's an incredible player. Iggy is a Finals MVP. Bogut is a defensive anchor. Barnes (the one un-spectacular player we have) is a fantastic glue guy.

There is a lot of talent on this team

Pippen was a legit MVP candidate back in the day, 21/8/5 without MJ , still anchors a top 3 defensive team in the league and second round in PS. Rodman is comparable to Green but Pippen is light years better than Klay. Harper, Kerr and Kukoc are not worse than Iggy and livingston. So yeah the bulls had more depth than current warriors.

[nate33]

Yeah, that's an interesting comparison between the Bulls' supporting cast and the Warriors'.

Chicago definitely has the edge with the #2 guy. Pippen >> Klay. But after that, it's pretty even. Rodman and Green cancel each other out. Longley/Wennington are roughly equal to Ezeli/Bogut. The sixth men, Kukoc and Iggy, cancel each other out. Barnes is probably a bit better than Harper. The end of the bench probably favors Golden State a bit: Livingston + Barbosa + Speights are better than Kerr + Buechler + Simpkins.

[JulesWinnfield]

I don't know. I look at Golden State and don't think the roster is nearly as stacked as others do, at least in comparison to other teams who have achieved a similar level of dominance. I still struggle to explain just how they are this dominant in that conference and now looking even better with a fill-in coach. I don't want to be robbed of one single Stephen curry viewing experience, but it would be an interesting test case seeing how this group would perform should he be forced to miss a decent chunk of time. His net on/offs have been pretty absurd the last few years.

I think Curry's impact is probably even greater than most account for even though we know his impact is massive. The way he completely warps the spacing of your defense certainly has impact that doesn't necessarily get fully appreciated statistically

The reason a lot of people don't see this team as stacked is because we prop up players from previous generations, and de-value current players. It's that simple.

Guys like Pippen, Rodman, Kukoc, Kerr...we think back to those guys and we think "legendary role players". Because they played 20 years ago, and won titles. Don't get me wrong. Those guys were incredible, especially Pip and Rodman. But are they really THAT much better than the current Warriors players? If better at all?

Aside from Harrison Barnes, everyone in our starting lineup is either an All-Star or an All-NBA Defender. Then you have Iguodala as an incredible 6th man. You have Ezeli, a starting caliber C, as a backup. The group of: Livingston, Barbosa, and Speights are all fantastic role players, and I challenge you to find me a better 7-8-9 rotation.

I don't think people realize, for example, how good Draymond Green is quite yet. Klay is struggling, but when he gets back to form, he's an incredible player. Iggy is a Finals MVP. Bogut is a defensive anchor. Barnes (the one un-spectacular player we have) is a fantastic glue guy.

There is a lot of talent on this team

I fight against the whole over glorification of the past as much as anyone, but Scottie Pippen is so much better than the 2nd best Warrior it's nuts. If Steph didn't play this season they would not be the 1994 Bulls

.... And forget about even comparing them to legendary squads of past eras, I don't see this Warrior roster as head and shoulders above many of their contemporaries on paper. A healthy Cavs. A healthy OKC or SA. I know a lot more goes into assembling a team, but Klay Thompson is quite possibly the weakest number 2 you can have on a team this good. The Warriors are very deep and the parts fit together extremely well, But I still scratch my head at times at the level of dominance, especially during what I consider to be a very strong era we are currently in the midst of. I'm simply left to believe Curry's impact is even greater than we are currently led to believe by statistics that don't so his impact justice.