Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers?

[jayjaysee]

We are now criticizing Noel? Just to criticize Hinkie?

Feels kind of desperate.

I'd rather my team do the Sixers rebuild style vs retooling, where I know my team is very unlikely to make noise and I just have to be excited to make the playoffs. I would start getting upset next season if the team isn't trying to be competitive, but I wouldn't expect playoffs next season. I'd just want progress. The third year - this year - I'd want the number one pick and some fun things to watch. The Sixers have Noel and Okafor to watch. They can look at highlights of Saric. And they are the worst team in the league. I'd be very happy if I were a Sixer fan.

I would still go to Mavs games watch my team lose by 20 and love every move Okafor makes. Would pick a bandwagon team to cheer to feel involved in the playoffs.

I'd pick Okafor or Noel over any two prospects the Celtics have. And I'd take the Sixers pick over the Nets pick - the Sixers want to be horrible this year, the Nets have a bit of talent and don't want to be terrible..throughout the season that should show much clearer. And I'd take a shot at the Lakers pick over any non-Brooklyn pick the Celtics have.

But Ainge and Hinkie did completely different rebuilds and neither should be judged yet.

Ainge's shouldn't be judged until he either sells the Brooklyn picks for a star or the players they get with the Brooklyn picks have a couple years to develop with whatever the roster looks like at that point. He has ended up on the right side of pretty much every deal and what he did to the Brooklyn Nets was clearly robbery and is showing it could work out very well at the end of this season.

Hinkie's shouldn't be judged on wins until the goal of the team is to win IMO. As a fan, I'd say that would be starting next year, but if ownership gives Hinkie next year to tank - then why would we blame Hinkie for rolling more assets? As long as he is getting great value - which he has in every move I can think of.

[Dr Positivity]

We're the only winless team and WS is correlative to team wins.

Yes and no. Noel is at -0.6 OWS and 0.3 DWS. His defensive win shares would be better if the Sixers were playing D like last year. His offensive win shares are mostly his own individual stats.

Per Basketball Reference-

In my system, one win is equivalent to one Win Share.

Wins are directly referenced in the formula to calculate WS.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

Players that have negative win share have performed poorly, I wasn't denying that, however the affect of team wins relative to win share is only positive so it skews league rankings, which is what I was referring to. There is occasional error and players can play above and below their team win threshold, however the intention is that the roster will divvy up win shares' among the players themselves according to varying factors that will cumulatively be about the number of wins the team has.

I know what you're saying, but

Sixers total WS is not 0, it's +0.7 according to the rounded numbers on ball-reference, cause it uses point differential where their expected W/L is 1-9
There are 8 Sixers with positive WS (Grant leads the team at 0.3)
Noel is last

So I don't think there's any way to get around that by WS Noel rates as one of the league's worst players. If someone wants to argue Noel is helping his team in a way not captured by WS that is fine, though

[CoreyGallagher]

So I don't think there's any way to get around that by WS Noel rates as one of the league's worst players.

By WS, but WS is skewed, which is my point.

[I Am Awesome-O]

Tanking is a good thing, but you have to nail more drafts than you whiff on. Otherwise you're screwed. Remains to be see how effective a drafter Hinkie is - though I think he made a big mistake taking Okafor over Porzingis. Okafor will be a beast, but Kristaps might be a superstar and that's what every rebuilding team desperately needs to land.

[HartfordWhalers]

by WS Noel rates as one of the league's worst players.

Through 8 games played at a new position ignoring his previous season, as a 21 year old prospect who's main contributions are on defense and those not captured by the formula because his teammates are bad on that end.

But if you think it is meaningful...

[HartfordWhalers]

How many picks should Philly add to Noel to switch him into Waiters?

[R-DAWG]

the plan would look a lot better if he had at least something to show from the 2014 draft. The plan has been good, they just botched their biggest opportunity. And the ball hasn't bounded their way. Part of it is luck. A bounce here or there and they could have had Wiggins or Parker instead of Embiid. Imagine how that changes things.

[Smitty731]

How many picks should Philly add to Noel to switch him into Waiters?

At least a couple right? I mean Waiters WANTS to play there. That alone means they have to add a couple of picks.

[the_process]

I'm surprised I haven't seen an OKC/PHI trade thread pop up yet to rehash the idea of getting Waiters to Philly. I actually admire the restraint being shown. With that being said, cue the thread in 3, 2, 1...

[Chinook]

Seriously? MCW was traded for a pick that looks like gold compared to an 11th pick in a weak draft, and Noel has looked extremely good, coming in what 3rd in the ROY race which isn't so shabby for a 6th pick.

Thinking that draft was bad for Philly seems crazy...

I feel like you were so keen to be offended that you missed his point. Philly looks bad right now because they are CURRENTLY getting nothing out of their picks. That MCW was traded for great value doesn't help the team this year. And if that pick is another Embiid or Saric, it may not even help for a few years, or ever. Philly is at the mercy of their draft prowess, and so far they don't have enough to show they're good at drafting.

I don't claim to watch the Sixers much nowadays. I didn't even watch them much when I was in Philly. But from what I've seen, the culture over there is souring more and more with each loss. Brown looks fed up, Noel had a pretty notable reaction the other day.

The question I would ask about the 76ers is this: Does Hinkie really have a plan, or does he just have a philosophy? Those are two different things. It's not a plan to trade away decent young players for picks and to draft delayed-gratification prospects. I thought they were going with length and defense which they were going to teach to shoot, but then they trade away two of their lengthy guys before they really had a chance to teach them to shoot.

Just seems more and more to me that they are just shuffling papers and waiting on a miracle, while other teams are picking up foundational pieces while not going through this much strife.

I'm pretty sure I responded to exactly what he said. I just think what he said was crazytown.

No, this is what he said:

The reason PHI is 0-10 is so far this season they are getting nothing from the 2013 picks (MCW - traded, Noel - replacement level production this season) or 2014 ones (Embiid - injured, Saric - not playing). No wonder the process looks slow

And you specifically decided NOT to quote that part in your response. If Philly ends up getting a top-five pick out of MCW, it still doesn't make them better THIS season. And getting good value for MCW doesn't negate the fact that he was a failure in Philly. There are two or three more players drafted after him that were arguably worth more than the Lakers pick. Having a plan that relies on tanking means you HAVE to hit on several of your picks (though to different degrees). Noel and Okafor look to be really good prospects but unless they become superstars they can't be the only substantial things you get out of years of tanking.

[Chinook]

Seriously? MCW was traded for a pick that looks like gold compared to an 11th pick in a weak draft, and Noel has looked extremely good, coming in what 3rd in the ROY race which isn't so shabby for a 6th pick.

Thinking that draft was bad for Philly seems crazy...

I feel like you were so keen to be offended that you missed his point. Philly looks bad right now because they are CURRENTLY getting nothing out of their picks.

No, he started by saying that the plan won't work if the Sixers are only at a "C" at drafting and then cited what HW quoted. Unless we're no longer going to assume that there is a logical connection between a sentence and the sentence that follows it, it seems pretty clear he was using the drafting of Noel and MCW as evidence of potentially bad drafting.

As I said to HW, his conclusion is that Philly is struggling because they have almost nothing tangible from their 2013 and 2014 drafts. You and HW want to act like the Lakers pick somehow negates that conclusion, but it doesn't. They have to hit on it for it to change their fortunes, and even then it would be in 2016-2017 at the earliest.

And, as has been discussed repeatedly, is there anyone that they could have drafted over MCW, at 11 in a terrible draft, other than Gobert and maybe Giannis that would make any difference right now? Hell, forget after MCW, other than Noel and Olapido, is there anyone they could have drafted before MCW that could have made a difference?[

Anyone who thinks the Sixers knocked the past three drafts out of the park is biased, I feel. I can see the argument for saying they did the best they could in 2013, but even that only matters so much. When you base your plan on building through the draft, then you have to do better than "the best you can", if that makes sense. The Knicks did the best they could building through free agency, and I don't think we have to call their off-season a success or believe their plan is going to work out.

[Sportfan73]

I feel like you were so keen to be offended that you missed his point. Philly looks bad right now because they are CURRENTLY getting nothing out of their picks.

No, he started by saying that the plan won't work if the Sixers are only at a "C" at drafting and then cited what HW quoted. Unless we're no longer going to assume that there is a logical connection between a sentence and the sentence that follows it, it seems pretty clear he was using the drafting of Noel and MCW as evidence of potentially bad drafting.

As I said to HW, his conclusion is that Philly is struggling because they have almost nothing tangible from their 2013 and 2014 drafts. You and HW want to act like the Lakers pick somehow negates that conclusion, but it doesn't. They have to hit on it for it to change their fortunes, and even then it would be in 2016-2017 at the earliest.

And, as has been discussed repeatedly, is there anyone that they could have drafted over MCW, at 11 in a terrible draft, other than Gobert and maybe Giannis that would make any difference right now? Hell, forget after MCW, other than Noel and Olapido, is there anyone they could have drafted before MCW that could have made a difference?[

Anyone who thinks the Sixers knocked the past three drafts out of the park is biased, I feel. I can see the argument for saying they did the best they could in 2013, but even that only matters so much. When you base your plan on building through the draft, then you have to do better than "the best you can", if that makes sense. The Knicks did the best they could building through free agency, and I don't think we have to call their off-season a success or believe their plan is going to work out.

Give me the better option over Embiid at 3. Just one please.

[bondom34]

I'm surprised I haven't seen an OKC/PHI trade thread pop up yet to rehash the idea of getting Waiters to Philly. I actually admire the restraint being shown. With that being said, cue the thread in 3, 2, 1...

Waiters for Canaan, or Wroten. Whoever you want.

[Patsfan1081]

The only grudge I have with the Sixers is they are doing a disearvice to Noel/Okafor in not sourounding them with the correct tools to improve their game. Look at Minny, KG is a great influence on KAT and Rubio is huge for Wiggings and KAT's developement. Sixers had all the ammo to go out and trade for a Tyrus Jones or even Cameron Payne, even if they didn't think they were the pg of the future. You don't have to bring in a player the calibure of KG, but not having one or two vets to teach the bigs the riggers of the nba will hurt them in the long run. I'm not saying to go waste money on a aging vet on his last leg, but even signing a guy that's been in the league three or four years that has gone against the leagues elite bigs.

What? How would those rookie pg's promote 'improving the game of Noel/Okafor' compared to McConnell or Marshall? Basically they would be stop gaps if not pgs of the future, and the Sixers have those already, why squander assets. (Also easily trading up to the lottery isn't really easy or cheap at all. Tyus cost Minnesota 3 2nds including the 31st and the 36th pick so the cost is very steep to get into the 20 range


In terms of bigs, Noel's month to month progressions showed dramatic improvement last year. It might not be what people think the learning process is (there seems a lot of preconceived notions that are pretty unshakable here), but if anyone is actually looking under the hood the Sixers are doing everything they can to improve the games of their players and it appears to be working very well.

Payne and Jones haven't gotten any minutes because they are blocked on the depth chart, how exactly do you know if they would be just a stop gap? Both seemed like recents prospects coming out of school that might have flourished if they were given minutes their rookie year. Having a decent backcourt that can plug the lane makes a big difference on defense, especially playin with a guy like Okafor who isn't known for his transitions and plugging the hole. You don't want your bigs developing any bad habits on defense their rookie year. Also, I never said Noel wasn't progressing last year, that would have been the farthest thing from the truth. I grew up a town over from Noel and watched him play ball against us, so I'm fallowing his career closely. I only pointed out the lack of veteran leadership. The coaching staff can only do so much for young players, especially ones a young team that isn't winning. Losing takes a toll on young players, veteran leadership is vital for for things that won't show up on the stat sheet. I guarentee it playing a big part of why we are seeing KAT playing at such a high level so early. I guarentee the players aren't looking at Hinkies plan the same way fans do.

[Chinook]

No, he started by saying that the plan won't work if the Sixers are only at a "C" at drafting and then cited what HW quoted. Unless we're no longer going to assume that there is a logical connection between a sentence and the sentence that follows it, it seems pretty clear he was using the drafting of Noel and MCW as evidence of potentially bad drafting.

As I said to HW, his conclusion is that Philly is struggling because they have almost nothing tangible from their 2013 and 2014 drafts. You and HW want to act like the Lakers pick somehow negates that conclusion, but it doesn't. They have to hit on it for it to change their fortunes, and even then it would be in 2016-2017 at the earliest.

And, as has been discussed repeatedly, is there anyone that they could have drafted over MCW, at 11 in a terrible draft, other than Gobert and maybe Giannis that would make any difference right now? Hell, forget after MCW, other than Noel and Olapido, is there anyone they could have drafted before MCW that could have made a difference?[

Anyone who thinks the Sixers knocked the past three drafts out of the park is biased, I feel. I can see the argument for saying they did the best they could in 2013, but even that only matters so much. When you base your plan on building through the draft, then you have to do better than "the best you can", if that makes sense. The Knicks did the best they could building through free agency, and I don't think we have to call their off-season a success or believe their plan is going to work out.

Give me the better option over Embiid at 3. Just one please.

As of this point, almost everyone drafted after Embiid has been better than him. I'm not saying I don't get your point about potential at that slot. I just think you're ignoring the real issue. If you are going to build your team through the draft, you have to get good players, not just the best players available, or more accurately, the best picks available. The NBA is a results-based league, and Philly is lacking in that category right now. Most GMs don't survive multiple "bad breaks" when it comes to their personnel moves. At the end of the day, you have to put together a team, not win the numbers game.

[HartfordWhalers]

And you specifically decided NOT to quote that part in your response.

Yes, I had no problem with that part.

I had a massive problem with the part I quoted directly.

2013 - Noel and MCW. I don't love this draft for them right now. MCW is a flawed but talented player they gave up on a year and a half in. Noel was solid as a rookie but has played bad so far this year like MCW did to start last season.

He has made abundantly clear he stands by his assessment of Noel, so this idea that I am mischaracterizing him is absolutely ****. Which is why he didn't think he was. Please do better.

[HartfordWhalers]

The coaching staff can only do so much for young players, especially ones a young team that isn't winning. Losing takes a toll on young players, veteran leadership is vital for for things that won't show up on the stat sheet. I guarentee it playing a big part of why we are seeing KAT playing at such a high level so early.

This gets thrown out as a fact despite lacking in anything that would elevate it to that level versus opinion.

But this is a nice example of it. I really don't think KAT is playing like the clear number one prospect because of 40 days with KG, but you do even so far as to guarantee it.

[Chinook]

And you specifically decided NOT to quote that part in your response.

Yes, I had no problem with that part.

I had a massive problem with the part I quoted directly.

2013 - Noel and MCW. I don't love this draft for them right now. MCW is a flawed but talented player they gave up on a year and a half in. Noel was solid as a rookie but has played bad so far this year like MCW did to start last season.

He has made abundantly clear he stands by his assessment of Noel, so this idea that I am mischaracterizing him is absolutely ****. Which is why he didn't think he was. Please do better.

Your retort to that was to cite Noel's rookie stats. But he didn't say Noel didn't play well last year. So what do you want? Is Noel playing well and is just being misjudged? From the one game I watched with him, he showed potential but looked out of control. Is it 100-percent absurd to think Philly would trade Noel is they got a top-five pick? I don't know personally, but I could see him getting frustrated and wanting out. And even if they trade him for the 2016 first-overall pick, would it change the fact that they have nothing to show from their 2013 draft this season?

So I don't think Dr. P was out of line with his observation or with his reasoning. I think you cherrypicked one line and ignored the actual argument. MCW is not on the team anymore; Noel is struggling this season. That Philly is getting little out of two picks one would hope form the foundation of their rebuild explains why their plan looks shaky. They have a lot of picks, but if 2016 and 2017 are like 2013 and 2014, then there's no way you can call the plan successful. Assets have to translate into on-court production, and by Year Three, you simply want to see that that's happened.

[HartfordWhalers]

And you specifically decided NOT to quote that part in your response.

Yes, I had no problem with that part.

I had a massive problem with the part I quoted directly.

2013 - Noel and MCW. I don't love this draft for them right now. MCW is a flawed but talented player they gave up on a year and a half in. Noel was solid as a rookie but has played bad so far this year like MCW did to start last season.

He has made abundantly clear he stands by his assessment of Noel, so this idea that I am mischaracterizing him is absolutely ****. Which is why he didn't think he was. Please do better.

Your retort to that was to cite Noel's rookie stats. But he didn't say Noel didn't play well last year. So what do you want? Is Noel playing well and is just being misjudged? From the one game I watched with him, he showed potential but looked out of control. Is it 100-percent absurd to think Philly would trade Noel is they got a top-five pick? I don't know personally, but I could see him getting frustrated and wanting out. And even if they trade him for the 2016 first-overall pick, would it change the fact that they have nothing to show from their 2013 draft this season?

So I don't think Dr. P was out of line with his observation or with his reasoning. I think you cherrypicked one line and ignored the actual argument. MCW is not on the team anymore; Noel is struggling this season. That Philly is getting little out of two picks one would hope form the foundation of their rebuild explains why their plan looks shaky. They have a lot of picks, but if 2016 and 2017 are like 2013 and 2014, then there's no way you can call the plan successful. Assets have to translate into on-court production, and by Year Three, you simply want to see that that's happened.

Lol. This is absurd. We have moved from judging Noel as a 'not good pick' based upon 8 games down to based upon 1 game.

He didn't just say the team was currently getting little production, he also said the players were evidence of not great drafting.

You are amazing...

[Chinook]

Yes, I had no problem with that part.

I had a massive problem with the part I quoted directly.



He has made abundantly clear he stands by his assessment of Noel, so this idea that I am mischaracterizing him is absolutely ****. Which is why he didn't think he was. Please do better.

Your retort to that was to cite Noel's rookie stats. But he didn't say Noel didn't play well last year. So what do you want? Is Noel playing well and is just being misjudged? From the one game I watched with him, he showed potential but looked out of control. Is it 100-percent absurd to think Philly would trade Noel is they got a top-five pick? I don't know personally, but I could see him getting frustrated and wanting out. And even if they trade him for the 2016 first-overall pick, would it change the fact that they have nothing to show from their 2013 draft this season?

So I don't think Dr. P was out of line with his observation or with his reasoning. I think you cherrypicked one line and ignored the actual argument. MCW is not on the team anymore; Noel is struggling this season. That Philly is getting little out of two picks one would hope form the foundation of their rebuild explains why their plan looks shaky. They have a lot of picks, but if 2016 and 2017 are like 2013 and 2014, then there's no way you can call the plan successful. Assets have to translate into on-court production, and by Year Three, you simply want to see that that's happened.

Lol. This is absurd. We have moved from judging Noel as a 'not good pick' based upon 8 games down to based upon 1 game.

He didn't just say the team was currently getting little production, he also said the players were evidence of not great drafting.

You are amazing...

Honestly, you've been coming off really rudely this whole discourse with the "please do better" and "you are amazing" lines that would get blue text in most other circumstances. I don't get why you think the other view point is so ridiculous that you can say such things and feel justified.

Anyway, draft success is based on results, not value. MCW isn't a Sixer, so he hasn't been a good pick. Noel isn't playing well so far this year. He played well last year, which is something on which no one has disagreed, but that doesn't mean that he was a great pick yet. If that's all he does for the Sixers, is the pick still great? Look at it this way: When talking about MCW, you didn't mention that he was the ROY in 2013-2014. You just talked about his trade haul. Isn't MCW winning the ROY more impressive than Noel showing in the race?

Again, I think you're missing the point. If all of Philly's picks turn out like MCW, have even mediocre years like Noel, get injured like Embiid or stay overseas like Saric, then it's a really big deal. I don't think a C is an inappropriate grade really, seeing as a C is considered average many grading curves, and Philly has been pretty average when it comes to the actual players they chose. It's not like it's an F. But I don't think I'd call it an A or even a B until or unless the situations with Saric and Embiid are resolved.