Bradley Beal - Part II

Dark Faze · Post #1781 » by **Dark Faze** » Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:34 pm

I'm not sure why we're talking about the beal of the last three seasons--this is a new Beal that is optimizing his play through improved shot selection and its paying off. Lets give him more time to either continue the trend or not.

tontoz · Post #1782 » by **tontoz** » Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:49 pm

Dark Faze wrote:I'm not sure why we're talking about the beal of the last three seasons--this is a new Beal that is optimizing his play through improved shot selection and its paying off. Lets give him more time to either continue the trend or not.

Last 3 years Beal's ORTG was 102-103. So far this year it is 101.

Porter is at 117.

Post #1783 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:58 pm

Dark Faze wrote:I'm not sure why we're talking about the beal of the last three seasons--this is a new Beal that is optimizing his play through improved shot selection and its paying off. Lets give him more time to either continue the trend or not.

Not as much as you might think. He's at least going in the right direction, but last season 48.8% of his FGA were 2pt attempts from beyond 3 feet. This season: 45.2%. So far this season, 29.6% of his FGA have been 3pt attempts -- actually the lowest mark of his career. He IS taking fewer long 2pt FGs (16+ feet), but his biggest increase in FGA has been in 2pt attempts from 3-10 feet...which is a crappy shot. His at-rim attempts are up too, but not in the same proportion as those 3-10 foot attempts.

His FTA are up a little, which is good.

dckingsfan · Post #1784 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:21 pm

tontoz wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:I'm not sure why we're talking about the beal of the last three seasons--this is a new Beal that is optimizing his play through improved shot selection and its paying off. Lets give him more time to either continue the trend or not.

Last 3 years Beal's ORTG was 102-103. So far this year it is 101.

Porter is at 117.

Yep, it is a small sample size - but I don't think he is the player we are wishing for...

Post #1785 » by **nate33** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 2:55 pm

Beal is now 16 games into his 4th season. He still has shown no statistical improvement as a basketball player. Right now, he is no better than his rookie year, actually a bit worse. I'm really tired of waiting for him to make The Leap. I really don't think it's going to happen. His flaws remain. He can't draw fouls, he's only a mediocre defender, and he's really not even that great of a shooter. He hasn't even cracked 80% from the FT line.

His ORtg is 99! I think people need to really consider how easily replaceable this guy is. He is, at best, an average SG, and that's only if you give him the benefit of the doubt due to injuries suppressing his performance. The following SG's are unquestionably better than Beal so far this season:

Harden
Butler
DeRozan
Barton
Fournier
Thompson
Miles
Lamb
Oladipo
McCollum
Wade
Ginobili
Burks
Ellis
Korver
Redick
Matthews
Harris
Knight
Bradley

If he doesn't improve... dramatically... there there is no way he should get the max. It's hard to justify paying him more than $8M or so. Heck, you can make a case that we'd be better off with Garrett freaking Temple at starting SG.

tontoz · Post #1786 » by **tontoz** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 3:20 pm

^^Get ready for people to accuse you of being a hater.

Upper Decker · Post #1787 » by **Upper Decker** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 3:26 pm

nate33 wrote: I'm really tired of waiting for him to make The Leap. I really don't think it's going to happen.

In this era of advanced stats and data analytics, isn't it safe to assume most (if not all) NBA GM's have come to this conclusion as well? I highly doubt he'll have suiters as a RFA. I expect Beal to accept the QO and tests his luck in unrestricted free agency in a couple years.

If I'm not mistaken, Wizards Dynasty was really trumpeting Drummond in that draft (what an awesome players he's developed into). No one had better signatures than WizD.

Post #1788 » by **nate33** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 3:30 pm

Upper Decker wrote:
nate33 wrote: I'm really tired of waiting for him to make The Leap. I really don't think it's going to happen.

In this era of advanced stats and data analytics, isn't it safe to assume most (if not all) NBA GM's have come to this conclusion as well? I highly doubt he'll have suiters as a RFA. I expect Beal to accept the QO and tests his luck in unrestricted free agency in a couple years.

If I'm not mistaken, Wizards Dynasty was really trumpeting Drummond in that draft (what an awesome players he's developed into). No one had better signatures than WizD.

Possibly. But he has always had a reputation that is better than his actual production. Maybe that's just the idiot fans and the sports media. Hopefully, GM's know better. But all it takes is one idiot to extend a max offer.

sashae · Post #1789 » by **sashae** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 3:53 pm

Vlade Divac and Billy King both have jobs still. There's hope.

sashae · Post #1790 » by **sashae** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 3:55 pm

I mean hell, Ernie's employed too.

FAH1223 · Post #1791 » by **FAH1223** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 4:51 pm

nate33 wrote:Beal is now 16 games into his 4th season. He still has shown no statistical improvement as a basketball player. Right now, he is no better than his rookie year, actually a bit worse. I'm really tired of waiting for him to make The Leap. I really don't think it's going to happen. His flaws remain. He can't draw fouls, he's only a mediocre defender, and he's really not even that great of a shooter. He hasn't even cracked 80% from the FT line.

His ORtg is 99! I think people need to really consider how easily replaceable this guy is. He is, at best, an average SG, and that's only if you give him the benefit of the doubt due to injuries suppressing his performance. The following SG's are unquestionably better than Beal so far this season:

Harden
Butler
DeRozan
Barton
Fournier
Thompson
Miles
Lamb
Oladipo
McCollum
Wade
Ginobili
Burks
Ellis
Korver
Redick
Matthews
Harris
Knight
Bradley

If he doesn't improve... dramatically... there there is no way he should get the max. It's hard to justify paying him more than $8M or so. Heck, you can make a case that we'd be better off with Garrett freaking Temple at starting SG.

Should we make an Amazingly Sucky Bradley Beal thread?

tontoz · Post #1792 » by **tontoz** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 4:56 pm

FAH1223 wrote:Should we make an Amazingly Sucky Bradley Beal thread?

He isn't sucky he just isn't that good. I would have no problem with it if they trade him or let him walk.

Dat2U · Post #1793 » by **Dat2U** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 6:35 pm

The good thing about the whole Beal debate is that it's December 3rd, 2015 and not July 3rd, 2016. The ridiculousness of trading for Avery Bradley & Jae Crowder will hopefully be met with complete disdain by then.

Post #1794 » by **nate33** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 7:03 pm

Dat2U wrote:The good thing about the whole Beal debate is that it's December 3rd, 2015 and not July 3rd, 2016. The ridiculousness of trading for Avery Bradley & Jae Crowder will hopefully be met with complete disdain by then.

We'll see how you feel about that statement next year when Beal is sporting an ORtg of 102 and a salary of $20M.

It's not just a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder. It's a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder + $8M in cap room. That $8M could be the difference between a PF like Humphries and a PF like Terrence Jones.

Post #1795 » by **nate33** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 7:16 pm

By the way, Eric Gordan is an UFA this summer, and Evan Fournier is a RFA. Either would be a suitable replacement for Beal at a substantially lower price.

Dat2U · Post #1796 » by **Dat2U** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 7:19 pm

nate33 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:The good thing about the whole Beal debate is that it's December 3rd, 2015 and not July 3rd, 2016. The ridiculousness of trading for Avery Bradley & Jae Crowder will hopefully be met with complete disdain by then.

We'll see how you feel about that statement next year when Beal is sporting an ORtg of 102 and a salary of $20M.

It's not just a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder. It's a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder + $8M in cap room. That $8M could be the difference between a PF like Humphries and a PF like Terrence Jones.

Well I'm not a huge Terrence Jones fan either so maybe that's not the comparison to make to me... :lol:

If Beal plays like this the entire year then you'll have an argument. I don't expect him too, much like I didn't expect Wall to play like the 20th best PG in league this year for much longer than he had. Beal's confidence ebbs/flows a little more than I like it but I think he's going to have a stretch where he plays very well for us and hopefully that will carry over into another all pro type performance in the playoffs.

tontoz · Post #1797 » by **tontoz** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 7:27 pm

Dat2U wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:The good thing about the whole Beal debate is that it's December 3rd, 2015 and not July 3rd, 2016. The ridiculousness of trading for Avery Bradley & Jae Crowder will hopefully be met with complete disdain by then.

We'll see how you feel about that statement next year when Beal is sporting an ORtg of 102 and a salary of $20M.

It's not just a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder. It's a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder + $8M in cap room. That $8M could be the difference between a PF like Humphries and a PF like Terrence Jones.

Well I'm not a huge Terrence Jones fan either so maybe that's not the comparison to make to me...

If Beal plays like this the entire year then you'll have an argument. I don't expect him too, much like I didn't expect Wall to play like the 20th best PG in league this year for much longer than he had. Beal's confidence ebbs/flows a little more than I like it but I think he's going to have a stretch where he plays very well for us and hopefully that will carry over into another all pro type performance in the playoffs.

Please spare us the Wall/Beal comparison. Wall has his issues but at least he showed improvement in his early years and played like a top 5 pg last year.

Beal has never been anything more than an average starter. His short bursts of good play keep giving people hope that he will make a big leap but he always reverts back to the mean.

At the rate Beal has been improving the Avery trade will look exactly the same in July as it does now.

Post #1798 » by **nate33** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 7:42 pm

tontoz wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
nate33 wrote:We'll see how you feel about that statement next year when Beal is sporting an ORtg of 102 and a salary of $20M.

It's not just a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder. It's a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder + $8M in cap room. That $8M could be the difference between a PF like Humphries and a PF like Terrence Jones.

Well I'm not a huge Terrence Jones fan either so maybe that's not the comparison to make to me...

If Beal plays like this the entire year then you'll have an argument. I don't expect him too, much like I didn't expect Wall to play like the 20th best PG in league this year for much longer than he had. Beal's confidence ebbs/flows a little more than I like it but I think he's going to have a stretch where he plays very well for us and hopefully that will carry over into another all pro type performance in the playoffs.

Please spare us the Wall/Beal comparison. Wall has his issues but at least he showed improvement in his early years and played like a top 5 pg last year.

Beal has never been anything more than an average starter. His short bursts of good play keep giving people hope that he will make a big leap but he always reverts back to the mean.

At the rate Beal has been improving the Avery trade will look exactly the same in July as it does now.

Exactly. Wall may not be perfect, but he's unquestionably a legit star. He has had significant stretches of play were he looked like a top 10ish overall player in the league. His bad play at the start of the season could reasonably be attributed to him being in a slump. I never once called for him to be traded.

Beal has never had an extended stretch of play that could reasonably put him in All Star consideration. Basically, his entire career has been a "slump" and he has shown no tangible improvement.

Kanyewest · Post #1799 » by **Kanyewest** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 8:19 pm

Dat2U wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:The good thing about the whole Beal debate is that it's December 3rd, 2015 and not July 3rd, 2016. The ridiculousness of trading for Avery Bradley & Jae Crowder will hopefully be met with complete disdain by then.

We'll see how you feel about that statement next year when Beal is sporting an ORtg of 102 and a salary of $20M.

It's not just a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder. It's a comparison of Beal versus Bradley + Crowder + $8M in cap room. That $8M could be the difference between a PF like Humphries and a PF like Terrence Jones.

Well I'm not a huge Terrence Jones fan either so maybe that's not the comparison to make to me...

If Beal plays like this the entire year then you'll have an argument. I don't expect him too, much like I didn't expect Wall to play like the 20th best PG in league this year for much longer than he had. Beal's confidence ebbs/flows a little more than I like it but I think he's going to have a stretch where he plays very well for us and hopefully that will carry over into another all pro type performance in the playoffs.

I agree, I wouldn't hit the panic button yet for Beal. This is just his reputation at this point- he is mediocre for most of the regular season and then somewhere in the postseason he plays like a top 5 shooting guard. I believe he did the same thing in college and only picked it up in the 2nd half of season.

That being said, I am not sure about giving Beal a max contract if he isn't that consistent. I'll knock up last night though to playing the 2nd game of a back to back after playing 40+ minutes of high intensity basketball against the Cavs.

Sluggerface · Post #1800 » by **Sluggerface** » Thu Dec 3, 2015 9:07 pm

nate33 wrote:Beal is now 16 games into his 4th season. He still has shown no statistical improvement as a basketball player. Right now, he is no better than his rookie year, actually a bit worse. I'm really tired of waiting for him to make The Leap. I really don't think it's going to happen. His flaws remain. He can't draw fouls, he's only a mediocre defender, and he's really not even that great of a shooter. He hasn't even cracked 80% from the FT line.

His ORtg is 99! I think people need to really consider how easily replaceable this guy is. He is, at best, an average SG, and that's only if you give him the benefit of the doubt due to injuries suppressing his performance. The following SG's are unquestionably better than Beal so far this season:

Harden
Butler
DeRozan
Barton
Fournier
Thompson
Miles
Lamb
Oladipo
McCollum
Wade
Ginobili
Burks
Ellis
Korver
Redick
Matthews
Harris
Knight
Bradley

If he doesn't improve... dramatically... there there is no way he should get the max. It's hard to justify paying him more than $8M or so. Heck, you can make a case that we'd be better off with Garrett freaking Temple at starting SG.

I was going to reply in the game thread, but you've officially gone off the deep end. Temple is barely a rotation player. You're bitching about a player posting a **** offensive rating when the entire team is posting **** offensive ratings (and have been since Randy landed the job.)

John -99
Gortat -102
Brad -99
Otto - 105 (predictably fell back down to earth this week)

That's four starters that are struggling to produce at a league average level.

"His flaws remain. He can't draw fouls, he's only a mediocre defender, and he's really not even that great of a shooter. He hasn't even cracked 80% from the FT line."

All of this is just blind hate. Beal is posting an efg% of .507. That's above league average, and it's the first time Beal has shot the ball above league average for his entire career.

It's cool if you don't think he deserves the max, but saying that temple should be starting over him is basically **** posting.