Fun with Stats!!!

[Mystical Apples]

You'd think they'd be able to classify players a little better than the 5 rigid positions. Such an odd juxtaposition compared to the advanced metrics themselves when there has to be upwards of 10 different playing positions.

One can only assume a smoothing effect over time considering Nene is the 8th PF.

[JDR720]

evidently age, height and minutes played are all variables in the formula.

that doesn't make sense to me

[EwingSweatsALot]

evidently age, height and minutes played are all variables in the formula.

that doesn't make sense to me

Minutes should. The other two shouldn't. You shouldn't get benefit of the doubt because you're old and short or whatever it is

[steady]

Not just because I was disappointed at how badly RPM came out for Lin ... Here is a fun post about some reasons to be skeptical about RPM, although in general I like this stat (if taken with a grain of salt.)

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/4/8/5594238/problem-with-real-plus-minus

[EwingSweatsALot]

Updated Adjusted Net Rating stat that factors in who each team has played. It does have a slightly higher correlation to winning percentage than net rating does. *toot toot*

We are 8th in it. 5th in the east. The west has 3 of the top 4, but doesn't have another team until Utah at 12. Don't know why that is.

I also stole one of MYSTICAL APPLES style charts to just show how dominant GSW has been, which we all know.

Only two teams are better than a point on both offense and defense, GSW and TOR. But GSW is at least 3.5 points better on both sides of the court. Just absolutely unreal.

[Yit]

Updating after Game 15

Contribution Points of Players Per Game
Player---G1---G2---G3---G4---G5---G6---G7---G8---G9---G10---G11---G12---G13----G14---G15
KW15 ---36--- 26---39----25---30--- 51---18--- 21---39-----26-----49----36-----34-----49-----22
JL7 ------33---28--- 26---38--- 20---31--- 38---46----15----15------28----27-----18-----24-----16
BR22 ----21---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA----UR----NA-----NA-----9------NA----NA
NB5 ------19---30---38----33----23---23----28---38---50-----47-----10-----32----22-----30-----42
JL3 ------NA---42---33--- 37---32----10----40---35----28-----30-----36-----17----22-----25----39
TD30 ----NA---NA---NA--UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---UR----NA-----NA----NA-----UR-----NA----NA
AH9 -----NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA----NA-----NA----NA-----UR----NA-----NA
MW2 ----25---33----30---19----38----21---21----21---27----21-------7-----28-----25------21----33
PJH19 ---10---10---19----24---12----14---25----16----20----UR-----NA-----NA----NA-----18----20
MKG14--NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA-----NA-----NA----NA----NA------NA-----NA
CZ40 ----24---18---20----20---31------9---33----30---NA----10------21------8-----NA-----22-----33
FK44 ----NA---23---UR---18---UR---UR---UR---UR---18----NA------12------24----28------22------7
TH50 ---NA---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---NA----NA------NA----NA-----UR-----NA-----NA
AJ25 ----43---30---30----32----60----30---20---16----20-----49------29-----36----52------21-----38
SH00 ----23---31---12----29-----6-----15----9-----9----11-----11------47----34----16------UR-----NA

Averages over 10+games:
AJ25 (15Gav) - 34 +/- 13
KW15 (15Gav) - 33 +/- 11
NB5 (15Gav) - 31 +/- 11
JL7 (15Gav) - 27 +/- 9
MW2 (15Gav) - 25 +/- 7

JL3 (10Gav) - 32 +/- 9
CZ40 (10Gav) - 21 +/- 8
PJH19 (10Gav) - 17 +/- 5
SH00 (10Gav) - 15 +/- 9

[Yit]

Updating after Game 16

Contribution Points of Players Per Game
Player---G1---G2---G3---G4---G5---G6---G7---G8---G9---G10---G11---G12---G13----G14---G15----G16
KW15 ---36--- 26---39----25---30--- 51---18--- 21---39-----26-----49----36-----34-----49-----22------40
JL7 ------33---28--- 26---38--- 20---31--- 38---46----15----15------28----27-----18-----24-----16------25
BR22 ----21---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA----UR----NA-----NA-----9------NA----NA------NA
NB5 ------19---30---38----33----23---23----28---38---50-----47-----10-----32----22-----30-----42------36
JL3 ------NA---42---33--- 37---32----10----40---35----28-----30-----36-----17----22-----25----39-------35
TD30 ----NA---NA---NA--UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---UR----NA-----NA----NA-----UR-----NA----NA-------NA
AH9 -----NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA----NA-----NA----NA-----UR----NA-----NA-------NA
MW2 ----25---33----30---19----38----21---21----21---27----21-------7-----28-----25------21----33-------25
PJH19 ---10---10---19----24---12----14---25----16----20----UR-----NA-----NA----NA-----18----20-------10
MKG14--NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA-----NA-----NA----NA----NA------NA-----NA------NA
CZ40 ----24---18---20----20---31------9---33----30---NA----10------21------8-----NA-----22-----33-------31
FK44 ----NA---23---UR---18---UR---UR---UR---UR---18----NA------12------24----28------22------7-------11
TH50 ---NA---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---NA----NA------NA----NA-----UR-----NA-----NA------NA
AJ25 ----43---30---30----32----60----30---20---16----20-----49------29-----36----52------21-----38-------30
SH00 ----23---31---12----29-----6-----15----9-----9----11-----11------47----34----16------UR-----NA------UR

Averages over 10+games:
AJ25 (15Gav) - 34 +/- 13
KW15 (15Gav) - 33 +/- 11
JL3 (15Gav) - 31 +/- 9
NB5 (15Gav) - 31 +/- 11
JL7 (15Gav) - 27 +/- 9
MW2 (15Gav) - 25 +/- 7

CZ40 (10Gav) - 21 +/- 8
PJH19 (10Gav) - 17 +/- 5
SH00 (10Gav) - 15 +/- 9

[Yit]

Updating after Game 17

Contribution Points of Players Per Game
Player---G1---G2---G3---G4---G5---G6---G7---G8---G9---G10---G11---G12---G13----G14---G15----G16----G17
KW15 ---36--- 26---39----25---30--- 51---18--- 21---39-----26-----49----36-----34-----49-----22------40-----41
JL7 ------33---28--- 26---38--- 20---31--- 38---46----15----15------28----27-----18-----24-----16------25-----26
BR22 ----21---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA----UR----NA-----NA-----9------NA----NA------NA-----NA
NB5 ------19---30---38----33----23---23----28---38---50-----47-----10-----32----22-----30-----42------36------30
JL3 ------NA---42---33--- 37---32----10----40---35----28-----30-----36-----17----22-----25----39-------35-----42
TD30 ----NA---NA---NA--UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---UR----NA-----NA----NA-----UR-----NA----NA-------NA----NA
AH9 -----NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA----NA-----NA----NA-----UR----NA-----NA-------NA----NA
MW2 ----25---33----30---19----38----21---21----21---27----21-------7-----28-----25------21----33-------25-----30
PJH19 ---10---10---19----24---12----14---25----16----20----UR-----NA-----NA----NA-----18----20-------10-----13
MKG14--NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA-----NA-----NA----NA----NA------NA-----NA------NA-----NA
CZ40 ----24---18---20----20---31------9---33----30---NA----10------21------8-----NA-----22-----33-------31-----10
FK44 ----NA---23---UR---18---UR---UR---UR---UR---18----NA------12------24----28------22------7-------11-----22
TH50 ---NA---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---NA----NA------NA----NA-----UR-----NA-----NA------NA-----UR
AJ25 ----43---30---30----32----60----30---20---16----20-----49------29-----36----52------21-----38-------30-----UR
SH00 ----23---31---12----29-----6-----15----9-----9----11-----11------47----34----16------UR-----NA------UR-----24

Averages over 10+games:
AJ25 (15Gav) - 34 +/- 13
KW15 (15Gav) - 33 +/- 11
JL3 (15Gav) - 31 +/- 9
NB5 (15Gav) - 31 +/- 11
JL7 (15Gav) - 27 +/- 9
MW2 (15Gav) - 25 +/- 7
CZ40 (15Gav) - 21 +/- 9

PJH19 (10Gav) - 17 +/- 5
SH00 (10Gav) - 15 +/- 9

[sutton]

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612766

clutch time stats

[EwingSweatsALot]

Charlotte defenders net points allowed per 100 defended shot attempts. This gives for 2s, 3s, and the total. I don't know how NBA.com defines if they defend the shot or not. Closest defender? Within a certain amount of feet of the shooter? I don't know. It's based on what defenders shoot on them compared to what they normally shoot.

[fatlever]

Charlotte defenders net points allowed per 100 defended shot attempts. This gives for 2s, 3s, and the total. I don't know how NBA.com defines if they defend the shot or not. Closest defender? Within a certain amount of feet of the shooter? I don't know. It's based on what defenders shoot on them compared to what they normally shoot.

Negative is good, right? Poor PJ stuck on the best scorer every night always going to fair poorly in this setting.

[EwingSweatsALot]

Charlotte defenders net points allowed per 100 defended shot attempts. This gives for 2s, 3s, and the total. I don't know how NBA.com defines if they defend the shot or not. Closest defender? Within a certain amount of feet of the shooter? I don't know. It's based on what defenders shoot on them compared to what they normally shoot.

Negative is good, right? Poor PJ stuck on the best scorer every night always going to fair poorly in this setting.

Negative is good.

And I don't know if it's necessarily him fairing poorly in this. Everything is normalized by the players they defend. PJs opponents are shooting 51.6% from 2 and 45.5% from 3 on him. So those same guys he has defended shoot 47% and 39% respectively. So yeah he is facing the best guys, but they are also shooting better on him than their averages. So it normalizes it in a sense based on who you defend.

If a guy shoots 25% from 3 and you hold him to 29%, then even though 29% is good, you still did worse on him than others do. So with Hairston it's like yeah he faces really good guys, but they still shoot better on him than most other guys that defend them. So in a sense it is unlucky for him, but it's also showing guys are still shooting better on our guy that is out there to defend.

[mrknowitall215]

I guess that backup my notion that Hairston hasn't been a plus defender this season despite what many want to falsely believe and has fared worse than Lamb beyond the perception that it appears that Hairston tries harder on defense while Lamb look lackadaisical

[Mystical Apples]

Charlotte defenders net points allowed per 100 defended shot attempts. This gives for 2s, 3s, and the total. I don't know how NBA.com defines if they defend the shot or not. Closest defender? Within a certain amount of feet of the shooter? I don't know. It's based on what defenders shoot on them compared to what they normally shoot.

I think the closest secondary defender might be causing some noise in the data (see below). PJ and Kemba are rock bottom in a statistically significant way, which makes me wonder if it's entirely them...or you know who (glances at Al). PJ plays almost 100% of his minutes with Al, Kemba second most. Conversely, Marvin and Batum spend a lot of time on the second unit, and Lamb relatively infequently and Hawes never with Al.

Here's a slightly different look at noise that occurs with rim protection and the closest defender conundrum from last year.

"Misappropriated “closest defender” shots this season have happened with the median “closest defender distance” of just 2 feet, and a median shot distance of 4.9 feet from the basket. The closest defender could be anywhere in that 2-foot radius!"

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/03/06/reinterpreting-defenders-with-sportvu/

[sidestep]

Regarding closest defender stats:

Take a recent example from the Cavs game: Love catches the ball on the arc in transition, and at that moment he's semi-open. PJ closes out hard on him, and does so by simultaneously cutting off Love's right-hand drive and getting his own right hand up to bother Love's shooting hand. The result was that Love neither shoots nor drive, but decides to pass the ball off.

This example of good defensive work is not counted in the stat above, because there was no shot attempt at all. And speaking more generally, superior defensive pressure often causes no shot attempt at all, instead of a missed shot. There is no metric for this.

There are other examples. Closest defender stats also do not reward ball denial, which is especially important against the deadly offensive players of the opposing team. The stat also doesn't reward shadowing the ball-hander so tight on a drive that he decides to kick it out instead of trying to finish himself.

Anyway, I think those numbers are pretty much meaningless if they are not matched with things seen in the game. To use those numbers in isolation and say so-and-so is a better defender than so-and-so is folly.

Watch Lamb when he gets screened off (either in a PnR, or with an off-ball screen) and thus has to recover to get back towards the ball handler. It is rare when Lamb manages to be a half-step behind the ball handler (which is excellent), and there are quite a lot of instances in which he fails to be one step behind (which is decent or good, depending on the situation); it happens too often that he is two steps behind and therefore out of the play. Guess what? In the worst cases, he's NOT the closest defender when the shot goes off because he's completely out of the play. In this case, the stat does not punish him, but actually punishes a teammate who has to rotate to help.

So many things not accounted in metrics using closest defender and FGA. I would say it's nearly worthless, unless you have like an entire season of data.

[Flip Murray]

this is the one thread I dare not enter

[EwingSweatsALot]

Charlotte defenders net points allowed per 100 defended shot attempts. This gives for 2s, 3s, and the total. I don't know how NBA.com defines if they defend the shot or not. Closest defender? Within a certain amount of feet of the shooter? I don't know. It's based on what defenders shoot on them compared to what they normally shoot.

I think the closest secondary defender might be causing some noise in the data (see below). PJ and Kemba are rock bottom in a statistically significant way, which makes me wonder if it's entirely them...or you know who (glances at Al). PJ plays almost 100% of his minutes with Al, Kemba second most. Conversely, Marvin and Batum spend a lot of time on the second unit, and Lamb relatively infequently and Hawes never with Al.

Here's a slightly different look at noise that occurs with rim protection and the closest defender conundrum from last year.

"Misappropriated “closest defender” shots this season have happened with the median “closest defender distance” of just 2 feet, and a median shot distance of 4.9 feet from the basket. The closest defender could be anywhere in that 2-foot radius!"

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/03/06/reinterpreting-defenders-with-sportvu/

Good info, MA.

It can be misconstrued, but eventually with enough data, hopefully it would be diluted to some extent.

Every now and then I keep some unhealthy detailed spreadsheets for games and have closest defender and what not, the person that blocks the shot always gets the closest defender. I don't know why it would be anyone else. I guess SportsVU can't really determine that.

[Mystical Apples]

I do think over larger sample sizes it could be useful combined with other tracking info. Maybe if we knew the defending % for each player in various lineup groups to pinpoint certain players. And/or shot percentage by shot clock time remaining. My guess is the data is there for a good reason we just need to find out why.

It's like the passing and possession tracking info. Conclusions aren't force fed to us but combining the 2 with a little math goes a long way.

[Yit]

Updating after Game 18

Contribution Points of Players Per Game
Player---G1---G2---G3---G4---G5---G6---G7---G8---G9---G10---G11---G12---G13----G14---G15----G16----G17---G18
KW15 ---36--- 26---39----25---30--- 51---18--- 21---39-----26-----49----36-----34-----49-----22------40-----41-----10
JL7 ------33---28--- 26---38--- 20---31--- 38---46----15----15------28----27-----18-----24-----16------25-----26-----24
BR22 ----21---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA----UR----NA-----NA-----9------NA----NA------NA-----NA----24
NB5 ------19---30---38----33----23---23----28---38---50-----47-----10-----32----22-----30-----42------36------30----43
JL3 ------NA---42---33--- 37---32----10----40---35----28-----30-----36-----17----22-----25----39-------35-----42----34
TD30 ----NA---NA---NA--UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---UR----NA-----NA----NA-----UR-----NA----NA-------NA----NA----34
AH9 -----NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA----NA-----NA----NA-----UR----NA-----NA-------NA----NA----UR
MW2 ----25---33----30---19----38----21---21----21---27----21-------7-----28-----25------21----33-------25-----30----UR
PJH19 ---10---10---19----24---12----14---25----16----20----UR-----NA-----NA----NA-----18----20-------10-----13----UR
MKG14--NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA-----NA-----NA----NA----NA------NA-----NA------NA-----NA---NA
CZ40 ----24---18---20----20---31------9---33----30---NA----10------21------8-----NA-----22-----33-------31-----10----19
FK44 ----NA---23---UR---18---UR---UR---UR---UR---18----NA------12------24----28------22------7-------11-----22----35
TH50 ---NA---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---NA----NA------NA----NA-----UR-----NA-----NA------NA-----UR---46
AJ25 ----43---30---30----32----60----30---20---16----20-----49------29-----36----52------21-----38-------30-----UR---NA
SH00 ----23---31---12----29-----6-----15----9-----9----11-----11------47----34----16------UR-----NA------UR-----24----38

Averages over 10+games:
AJ25 (15Gav) - 34 +/- 13
KW15 (15Gav) - 33 +/- 11
JL3 (15Gav) - 31 +/- 9
NB5 (15Gav) - 31 +/- 11
JL7 (15Gav) - 27 +/- 9
MW2 (15Gav) - 25 +/- 7
CZ40 (15Gav) - 21 +/- 9
SH00 (15Gav) - 21 +/- 12

PJH19 (10Gav) - 17 +/- 5

[Yit]

Updating after Game 19

Contribution Points of Players Per Game
Player---G1---G2---G3---G4---G5---G6---G7---G8---G9---G10---G11---G12---G13----G14---G15----G16----G17---G18---G19
KW15 ---36--- 26---39----25---30--- 51---18--- 21---39-----26-----49----36-----34-----49-----22------40-----41-----10-----35
JL7 ------33---28--- 26---38--- 20---31--- 38---46----15----15------28----27-----18-----24-----16------25-----26-----24-----28
BR22 ----21---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA----UR----NA-----NA-----9------NA----NA------NA-----NA----24-----NA
NB5 ------19---30---38----33----23---23----28---38---50-----47-----10-----32----22-----30-----42------36------30----43-----48
JL3 ------NA---42---33--- 37---32----10----40---35----28-----30-----36-----17----22-----25----39-------35-----42----34-----24
TD30 ----NA---NA---NA--UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---UR----NA-----NA----NA-----UR-----NA----NA-------NA----NA----34----NA
AH9 -----NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA----NA-----NA----NA-----UR----NA-----NA-------NA----NA----UR----NA
MW2 ----25---33----30---19----38----21---21----21---27----21-------7-----28-----25------21----33-------25-----30----UR----26
PJH19 ---10---10---19----24---12----14---25----16----20----UR-----NA-----NA----NA-----18----20-------10-----13----UR-----0
MKG14--NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA---NA-----NA-----NA----NA----NA------NA-----NA------NA-----NA---NA-----NA
CZ40 ----24---18---20----20---31------9---33----30---NA----10------21------8-----NA-----22-----33-------31-----10----19----38
FK44 ----NA---23---UR---18---UR---UR---UR---UR---18----NA------12------24----28------22------7-------11-----22----35----13
TH50 ---NA---NA---NA---UR---UR---UR---NA---NA---NA----NA------NA----NA-----UR-----NA-----NA------NA-----UR---46----UR
AJ25 ----43---30---30----32----60----30---20---16----20-----49------29-----36----52------21-----38-------30-----UR---NA----NA
SH00 ----23---31---12----29-----6-----15----9-----9----11-----11------47----34----16------UR-----NA------UR-----24----38----41

Averages over 10+games:
AJ25 (15Gav) - 34 +/- 13
KW15 (15Gav) - 33 +/- 11
JL3 (15Gav) - 31 +/- 9
NB5 (15Gav) - 31 +/- 11
JL7 (15Gav) - 27 +/- 9
MW2 (15Gav) - 25 +/- 7
CZ40 (15Gav) - 21 +/- 9
SH00 (15Gav) - 21 +/- 12

FK44 (10Gav) - 18 +/- 7
PJH19 (10Gav) - 17 +/- 5