GT #11: Pacers @ Wizards 7 PM (CSN/99.1 FM) [11/24/2015]

[tontoz]

Beals TS to start the season prior to his injury was fine. He was scoring efficiently. His problem was TOs and in my opinion some questionable defense every now and then. He fell off a cliff in the 2nd half, why I don't know, but they were open 3s so I don't fault him for shooting them. Oddly it seemed he shot the mid range better then he shot from distance, makes me wonder if the shoulder is still affecting his range. a 40%+ three pointer shouldn't miss that many open threes.

If you wanna wrag on him for being injury prone sure that is fine, cause if injuries affect his ability to produce even when he is "healthy enough " to play then that can be a detriment.

Even then, has Beal two more threes and had 26 points on 20 shots, I don't think we would have won. When TWO guys on another team shoot contested threes like that, you don't have much of a chance to keep pace and you end up pressing the issue.

I am not "wraging" on him because of injuries or costing us a win. It is because this game highlights why he is not an efficient scorer.

The most efficient shots are at the rim or foul line. Only 4 of his 22 shots were at the rim and he took only 1 foul shot. Whether the shots go in or not is a secondary issue. Over the long term his shot selection limits his ability to score efficiently.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Glad I missed this one. Looks like it was more of the same. Too many Wall turnovers. Too many shots from Beal at mediocre efficiency. Not enough defense.

Frank Vogel has to be the most underrated coach in the league. At the start of the season, nobody would have considered Ian Mahinmi and C.J. Miles to be starting caliber players. Outside of Paul George, nobody on their roster is even above-average at their position. Yet Vogel has them at 9-5.

Heck, last year, Indiana was complete garbage to start, and then suffered a wave of injuries, yet managed to win 38 games.

I tell you what, the East is starting to accumulate some of the very best young coaches in basketball. There's Frank Vogel, Mike Budenholzer, Brad Stevens and Erik Spoelstra who are all top 10 coaches. It's too early to assess Hoiberg in Chicago, but he might be another real good one. And there's obviously Stan Van Gundy (who isn't young anymore, but he's damn good). This is a big factor in why the East is catching up the West lately.

Agree with a lot of this. CJ Miles actually had a decent rating in PPA last season (90). I have him at 138 this season (not including last night's game). One guy who's better than average at his position is George Hill. I think he gets routinely underrated. He's not necessarily good at any one thing, but he does a lot of the stuff that helps a team win.

From my PPA update earlier in the week, the Pacers have George playing at an All-NBA level (PPA: 207); Miles and Mahinmi at above average starter level (138 and 135 respectively), then Jordan Hill and George Hill at average starter production (128 and 120 respectively). Jordan Hill is coming off the bench for the most part. Vogel seems damn good.

Definitely agree on the coaching. Makes me even more concerned about the Wizards. Wittman ain't of the same caliber as those guys. Not no way, not no how.

[nuposse04]

Beals TS to start the season prior to his injury was fine. He was scoring efficiently. His problem was TOs and in my opinion some questionable defense every now and then. He fell off a cliff in the 2nd half, why I don't know, but they were open 3s so I don't fault him for shooting them. Oddly it seemed he shot the mid range better then he shot from distance, makes me wonder if the shoulder is still affecting his range. a 40%+ three pointer shouldn't miss that many open threes.

If you wanna wrag on him for being injury prone sure that is fine, cause if injuries affect his ability to produce even when he is "healthy enough " to play then that can be a detriment.

Even then, has Beal two more threes and had 26 points on 20 shots, I don't think we would have won. When TWO guys on another team shoot contested threes like that, you don't have much of a chance to keep pace and you end up pressing the issue.

I am not "wraging" on him because of injuries or costing us a win. It is because this game highlights why he is not an efficient scorer.

The most efficient shots are at the rim or foul line. Only 4 of his 22 shots were at the rim and he took only 1 foul shot. Whether the shots go in or not is a secondary issue. Over the long term his shot selection limits his ability to score efficiently.

I think you need to see the context in the 4th quarter to try to make that assumption. We were down double digits and he was getting open looks from 3s... some nights they don't fall for w/e reason, I won't fault him for jacking the three's he did in the 2nd half in order to try to get us back into it. That and 22 y.o. Beal should not be expected to win a matchup against the defensive efforts of Paul George. This was a game in which Wall and Porter would have had to gone off in order to win, cause the Pacers rightly made it the gameplan to stick their best defender on Beal.

He DOES need to increase his FT rate but he has made an apparent effort to try to drive more in other games than in seasons past. Whether he can flop and flail like guys like Kevin Martin and Harden is another question.

[tontoz]

I think you need to see the context in the 4th quarter to try to make that assumption. We were down double digits and he was getting open looks from 3s... some nights they don't fall for w/e reason, I won't fault him for jacking the three's he did in the 2nd half in order to try to get us back into it. That and 22 y.o. Beal should not be expected to win a matchup against the defensive efforts of Paul George. This was a game in which Wall and Porter would have had to gone off in order to win, cause the Pacers rightly made it the gameplan to stick their best defender on Beal.

He DOES need to increase his FT rate but he has made an apparent effort to try to drive more in other games than in seasons past. Whether he can flop and flail like guys like Kevin Martin and Harden is another question.

Yet again you are missing the point. I don't have a problem with him shooting 8 3s. I have a problem with him shooting 10 2 point shots (from 3-22 feet) that he routinely shoots sub-40% on.

Getting to the foul line isn't just about flopping. It is also about forcing the defender to commit by using shot fakes, something he rarely does inside the 3 pt line.

[nuposse04]

I think you need to see the context in the 4th quarter to try to make that assumption. We were down double digits and he was getting open looks from 3s... some nights they don't fall for w/e reason, I won't fault him for jacking the three's he did in the 2nd half in order to try to get us back into it. That and 22 y.o. Beal should not be expected to win a matchup against the defensive efforts of Paul George. This was a game in which Wall and Porter would have had to gone off in order to win, cause the Pacers rightly made it the gameplan to stick their best defender on Beal.

He DOES need to increase his FT rate but he has made an apparent effort to try to drive more in other games than in seasons past. Whether he can flop and flail like guys like Kevin Martin and Harden is another question.

Yet again you are missing the point. I don't have a problem with him shooting 8 3s. I have a problem with him shooting 10 2 point shots (from 3-22 feet) that he routinely shoots sub-40% on.

Getting to the foul line isn't just about flopping. It is also about forcing the defender to commit by using shot fakes, something he rarely does inside the 3 pt line.

I get what you are saying but I still don't think you can call him an inefficient shooter to start THIS season, seasons past, sure. He is attempting more shots at the rim (0-3ft) then last season, only by 3% so it is up to 23% now, but it can go higher. Oddly enough his 3-10 ft attempts are up from 9% to 13% and he is shooting better on those shots from 29 to 39 percent... I do think he takes more floaters now, but as you said, he should try to expand on that and draw contact, hopefully as teams begin to respect his floater he may able to do that.

Also, mildly amusing to me, the dreaded long 2, he is taking less of this season but from 16-3 pt line, he is shooting 44%, up from 33%. his FTr has dipped I think over the last 2 games, not surprising coming back from 2 weeks off and really affecting his sample size.

Hopefully the aggressive pre/post-season Brad makes a return sooner then later :/

[tontoz]

I get what you are saying but I still don't think you can call him an inefficient shooter to start THIS season, seasons past, sure. He is attempting more shots at the rim (0-3ft) then last season, only by 3% so it is up to 23% now, but it can go higher. Oddly enough his 3-10 ft attempts are up from 9% to 13% and he is shooting better on those shots from 29 to 39 percent... I do think he takes more floaters now, but as you said, he should try to expand on that and draw contact, hopefully as teams begin to respect his floater he may able to do that.

Also, mildly amusing to me, the dreaded long 2, he is taking less of this season but from 16-3 pt line, he is shooting 44%, up from 33%. his FTr has dipped I think over the last 2 games, not surprising coming back from 2 weeks off and really affecting his sample size.

Hopefully the aggressive pre/post-season Brad makes a return sooner then later :/

The differences in his shot selection this season compared to last season are so small that they can easily be chalked up to random variance. And that shot selection, unless it changes drastically, will inevitably lead to another inefficient scoring season unless his shooting skill shows dramatic improvement.

[nate33]

Glad I missed this one. Looks like it was more of the same. Too many Wall turnovers. Too many shots from Beal at mediocre efficiency. Not enough defense.

Frank Vogel has to be the most underrated coach in the league. At the start of the season, nobody would have considered Ian Mahinmi and C.J. Miles to be starting caliber players. Outside of Paul George, nobody on their roster is even above-average at their position. Yet Vogel has them at 9-5.

Heck, last year, Indiana was complete garbage to start, and then suffered a wave of injuries, yet managed to win 38 games.

I tell you what, the East is starting to accumulate some of the very best young coaches in basketball. There's Frank Vogel, Mike Budenholzer, Brad Stevens and Erik Spoelstra who are all top 10 coaches. It's too early to assess Hoiberg in Chicago, but he might be another real good one. And there's obviously Stan Van Gundy (who isn't young anymore, but he's damn good). This is a big factor in why the East is catching up the West lately.

Don't forget Randy "Playoff GOAT" Wittman.

My theory is that coaching matters less in the playoffs. Good coaches quickly recognize mismatches and develop schemes to exploit them. Bad coaches take longer to do so. But all NBA coaches are good enough to figure these things out eventually. In a 7 game series, after the first 2 games or so, the rest just boils down to talent.

Randy is a mediocre coach. The Wizards will continue to underperform relative to their talent in the regular season. In the playoffs, they will probably have a real good chance of getting out of the first round again because they have more talent than teams like Boston, Indy, and Toronto.

[Dat2U]

It's funny how Wall, Beal & Gortat have massively under performed thus far and were still 6-5. Our season rides on the play of those 3... they eventually need to get it together otherwise missing the playoffs is a realistic possibility in the East where IMO there's only one real contender, 2 solid playoff teams and about 9 other flawed teams that could win anywhere from 35 to 45 teams.

What's been surprising is how well the bench has played. I think moving Nene has a lot to do with this. Even at his advanced age, he's simply more talented than most bigs off the bench. I think he's the best backup C in the league - especially when he's not playing on a back-to-back. Dudley is smart & heady and pretty much what I expected. Sessions is really playing well, maybe even better than Wall at the moment. Temple has become a calming influence and a solid rotation guy at both wing positions - Alan Anderson is a better version of him when healthy. Neal is the guy that should worry everyone the most. When he's on, he's passable. When he's not, he's unplayable and most of the time he's unplayable.

If Wall, Beal & Gortat managed to return to their career norms, I think were possibly 4th or 5th in the East. If Wall/Beal improve as I suspect they will over the course of the season, the 2nd seed isn't out of the question.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This is the 2nd 8 turnover game for Wall this month. He had 7 in another game, and the month isn't over.

(Doubt he reads this forum but hope someone who knows him does)

Turns out at this rate Wall won't even be in the top PG discussions. He sure didn't prove his point against Reggie Jackson or against George Hill. But what does Wall care, now that he's got his max contract?

Who cares about Adidas?

(For the record John is human and the season is early. Life is HARD sometimes.)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It's funny how Wall, Beal & Gortat have massively under performed thus far and were still 6-5. Our season rides on the play of those 3... they eventually need to get it together otherwise missing the playoffs is a realistic possibility in the East where IMO there's only one real contender, 2 solid playoff teams and about 9 other flawed teams that could win anywhere from 35 to 45 teams.

What's been surprising is how well the bench has played. I think moving Nene has a lot to do with this. Even at his advanced age, he's simply more talented than most bigs off the bench. I think he's the best backup C in the league - especially when he's not playing on a back-to-back. Dudley is smart & heady and pretty much what I expected. Sessions is really playing well, maybe even better than Wall at the moment. Temple has become a calming influence and a solid rotation guy at both wing positions - Alan Anderson is a better version of him when healthy. Neal is the guy that should worry everyone the most. When he's on, he's passable. When he's not, he's unplayable and most of the time he's unplayable.

If Wall, Beal & Gortat managed to return to their career norms, I think were possibly 4th or 5th in the East. If Wall/Beal improve as I suspect they will over the course of the season, the 2nd seed isn't out of the question.

The way I see it we already know what those three bring to the table. I'm not tripping after 11 games. One thing about playing with pace is that haste can make waste. Turnovers increase with mental and physical fatigue as well as with carelessness. Flow is important. It is unrealistic to expect career norms when things have been radically different this season. Yet, the players Wall, Beal, and Gortat are known commodities.

Beal has been himself in one regard: he's been injured.

The bench has adapted well to system ball. If anything Wall and Beal are forcing shots or pounding the ball at times, and Gortat isn't as intense at either end. Stars and system don't always mesh well.

PS -- I have only listened and read summaries of the past 6-7 games. If anybody disagrees you won't hurt my feelings by stating a completely differing point of view.

[dobrojim]

It's funny how Wall, Beal & Gortat have massively under performed thus far and were still 6-5. Our season rides on the play of those 3... they eventually need to get it together otherwise missing the playoffs is a realistic possibility in the East where IMO there's only one real contender, 2 solid playoff teams and about 9 other flawed teams that could win anywhere from 35 to 45 teams.

What's been surprising is how well the bench has played. I think moving Nene has a lot to do with this. Even at his advanced age, he's simply more talented than most bigs off the bench. I think he's the best backup C in the league - especially when he's not playing on a back-to-back. Dudley is smart & heady and pretty much what I expected. Sessions is really playing well, maybe even better than Wall at the moment. Temple has become a calming influence and a solid rotation guy at both wing positions - Alan Anderson is a better version of him when healthy. Neal is the guy that should worry everyone the most. When he's on, he's passable. When he's not, he's unplayable and most of the time he's unplayable.

If Wall, Beal & Gortat managed to return to their career norms, I think were possibly 4th or 5th in the East. If Wall/Beal improve as I suspect they will over the course of the season, the 2nd seed isn't out of the question.

Completely agree.

There is nothing so massively wrong with us that returns to near career norms from our 'big' 3
won't fix.

It's a shame that Neal's current high level of play is being wasted or undermined
by poor overall team play. He's exceeding expectations at the moment, shades
of Butler last year. Doubtful it'll last.