Chris Paul In The Clutch - The Cold Hard Facts

[Wammy Giveaway]

On Tuesday's edition of Inside The NBA, Shaquille O'Neal revealed that the Clippers rely too much on Chris Paul to make game-deciding baskets, especially in clutch situations and in Sudden Death. Depending too much on their point guard to be the hero when nobody else could was one of the major reasons why the Clippers lacked a killer instinct, resulting in CP3 taking on too much of a role than he already had as a pure point guard. As a result, Paul may have the worst stats when it comes to crunch time.

Before I start, I want you to understand that I'm trying to help the Clippers, not demoralize them. You love Chris Paul for what he has done in transforming the franchise and leading them into four straight playoff appearances. I get that, and I applaud them for this accomplishment. What I'm not here to do is present compelling evidence that will force you into the epiphany that trading Chris Paul is the only way for the Clippers to succeed. The Clippers can win with Paul. Their chances of winning depend on the score, not on their opponent.

Using Basketball-Reference, I've piled up all events since the 2011-12 lockout season in which Chris Paul took a shot under these filters:

1. 4th quarter, with less than 2 minutes remaining. All of overtime is also included as it is considered clutch. All shot attempts above 2 minutes are disregarded.
2. 6 point score cover: when the Clippers are behind by no less than 3 PTS, are tied, or above by no more than 3 PTS. This is where Paul's weakness comes to light.

For now, I'm only going to post the regular season results. Playoff results will be posted later. But this is still significant.

First, I will post Paul's results when his team is up by no more than 3 PTS:

Code: Select all

2011-12

FGA: 10-20 (0.500)
Rec: 11-2 (0.846)
1/1/2012     POR    4th    00:09.3    LAC up 2 (90-88)      Make 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC up 4 (92-88)     Win
1/29/2012    DEN    4th    01:26.0    LAC up 1 (102-101)    Make 2-pt shot from 16 ft    LAC up 3 (104-101)   Win
2/1/2012     UTA    4th    00:32.9    LAC up 2 (96-94)      Miss 2-pt shot from 12 ft    LAC up 2 (96-94)
2/1/2012     UTA    4th    01:06.0    LAC up 2 (94-92)      Make 2-pt shot from 19 ft    LAC up 4 (96-92)
2/1/2012     UTA    4th    01:35.0    LAC up 2 (94-92)      Miss 2-pt shot from 6 ft     LAC up 2 (94-92)     Win
2/6/2012     ORL    4th    01:10.0    LAC up 2 (93-91)      Miss 2-pt shot from 17 ft    LAC up 2 (93-91)
2/6/2012     ORL    OT     01:16.0    LAC up 1 (101-100)    Make 2-pt shot from 15 ft    LAC up 3 (103-100)   
2/6/2012     ORL    OT     00:13.7    LAC up 1 (103-102)    Miss 2-pt shot from 21 ft    LAC up 1 (103-102)   Win
2/10/2012    PHI    4th    01:54.0    LAC up 1 (74-73)      Miss 3-pt shot from 26 ft    LAC up 1 (74-73)
2/10/2012    PHI    4th    00:27.8    LAC up 2 (76-74)      Miss 2-pt shot from 18 ft    LAC up 2 (76-74)     Win
2/16/2012    POR    4th    01:05.0    LAC up 3 (70-67)      Make 2-pt shot from 16 ft    LAC up 5 (72-67)     Win
2/18/2012    SAS    OT     02:18.0    LAC up 2 (97-95)      Miss 2-pt shot from 5 ft     LAC up 2 (97-95)     Loss
3/4/2012     HOU    OT     02:32.0    LAC up 1 (100-99)     Miss 3-pt shot from 27 ft    LAC up 1 (100-99)    Win
3/18/2012    DET    OT     03:06.0    LAC up 2 (76-74)      Make 2-pt shot from 21 ft    LAC up 4 (78-74)
3/18/2012    DET    OT     02:22.0    LAC up 2 (78-76)      Make 3-pt shot from 26 ft    LAC up 5 (81-76)     Win
4/5/2012     SAC    4th    01:03.0    LAC up 1 (84-83)      Make 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC up 3 (86-83)     Win
4/11/2012    OKC    4th    01:19.0    LAC up 3 (96-93)      Make 2-pt shot from 1 ft     LAC up 5 (98-93)
4/11/2012    OKC    4th    01:19.0    LAC up 3 (96-93)      Miss 2-pt shot from 4 ft     LAC up 3 (96-93)     Win
4/18/2012    DEN    4th    00:54.9    LAC up 2 (96-94)      Miss 2-pt shot from 7 ft     LAC up 2 (96-94)     Win
4/19/2012    PHO    4th    01:59.0    LAC up 1 (84-83)      Make 2-pt shot from 11 ft    LAC up 3 (86-83)     Loss

2012-13

FGA: 6-15 (0.400)
Rec: 7-0 (100%)
11/19/2012   SAS    4th    00:24.9    LAC up 2 (89-87)      Make 2-pt shot from 10 ft    LAC up 4 (91-87)
11/19/2012   SAS    4th    01:42.0    LAC up 2 (87-85)      Miss 2-pt shot from 14 ft    LAC up 2 (87-85)     Win
12/11/2012   CHI    4th    00:27.1    LAC up 2 (89-87)      Make 2-pt shot from 6 ft     LAC up 4 (91-87)     Win
12/28/2012   UTA    4th    00:23.4    LAC up 1 (111-110)    Make 2-pt shot from 17 ft    LAC up 3 (113-110)
12/28/2012   UTA    4th    00:56.9    LAC up 1 (111-110)    Miss 3-pt shot from 25 ft    LAC up 1 (111-110)
12/28/2012   UTA    4th    01:54.0    LAC up 1 (109-108)    Miss 2-pt shot from 20 ft    LAC up 1 (109-108)   Win
1/19/2013    WAS    4th    01:10.0    LAC up 1 (87-86)      Miss 3-pt shot from 27 ft    LAC up 1 (87-86)
1/19/2013    WAS    4th    00:32.4    LAC up 3 (89-86)      Make 2-pt shot from 17 ft    LAC up 5 (91-86)     Win
3/23/2013    BRK    4th    00:22.0    LAC up 2 (94-92)      Make 2-pt shot from 5 ft     LAC up 4 (96-92)
3/23/2013    BRK    4th    00:57.8    LAC up 2 (92-90)      Miss 2-pt shot from 20 ft    LAC up 2 (92-90)     Win
4/12/2013    NOH    4th    00:52.3    LAC up 1 (86-85)      Make 2-pt shot from 16 ft    LAC up 3 (88-85)
4/12/2013    NOH    4th    00:26.6    LAC up 3 (88-85)      Miss 2-pt shot from 1 ft     LAC up 3 (88-85)     Win
4/13/2013    MEM    4th    00:41.9    LAC up 3 (88-85)      Miss 2-pt shot from 12 ft    LAC up 3 (88-85)
4/13/2013    MEM    4th    01:56.0    LAC up 3 (88-85)      Miss 2-pt shot from 7 ft     LAC up 3 (88-85)     Win

2013-14

Ahead 3
FGA: 2-7 (0.285)
Rec: 3-1 (0.750)
11/1/2013    SAC    4th    01:54.0    LAC up 3 (102-99)     Miss 2-pt shot from 21 ft    LAC up 3 (102-99)    Win
11/20/2013   MIN    4th    00:31.0    LAC up 3 (96-93)      Make 2-pt shot from 19 ft    LAC up 5 (98-93)     Win
12/26/2013   POR    4th    00:10.0    LAC up 1 (99-98)      Make 2-pt shot from 21 ft    LAC up 3 (101-98)
12/26/2013   POR    OT     01:46.0    LAC up 1 (107-106)    Miss 2-pt shot from 18 ft    LAC up 1 (107-106)   Loss
4/2/2014     PHO    4th    01:12.0    LAC up 2 (108-106)    Miss 3-pt shot from 25 ft    LAC up 2 (108-106)
4/2/2014     PHO    4th    00:29.0    LAC up 2 (110-108)    Miss 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC up 2 (110-108)
4/2/2014     PHO    4th    00:21.0    LAC up 2 (110-108)    Miss 2-pt shot from 23 ft    LAC up 2 (110-108)   Win

2014-15

FGA: 4-14 (0.285)
Rec: 8-2 (0.800)
10/31/2014   LAL    4th    00:41.0    LAC up 1 (112-111)    Miss 2-pt shot from 6 ft     LAC up 1 (112-111)   Win
11/8/2014    POR    4th    00:11.0    LAC up 2 (104-102)    Miss 2-pt shot from 18 ft    LAC up 2 (104-102)   Win
12/8/2014    PHO    4th    01:42.0    LAC up 1 (110-109)    Make 2-pt shot from 16 ft    LAC up 3 (112-109)
12/8/2014    PHO    4th    01:05.0    LAC up 3 (112-109)    Miss 2-pt shot from 20 ft    LAC up 3 (112-109)   Win
12/20/2014   MIL    4th    00:07.0    LAC up 2 (104-102)    Miss 2-pt shot from 20 ft    LAC up 2 (104-102)   Win
12/29/2014   UTA    4th    01:56.0    LAC up 1 (97-96)      Miss 2-pt shot from 17 ft    LAC up 1 (97-96)
12/29/2014   UTA    4th    00:47.0    LAC up 3 (99-96)      Miss 2-pt shot from 12 ft    LAC up 3 (99-96)     Win
1/26/2015    DEN    4th    00:11.0    LAC up 3 (99-96)      Miss 2-pt shot from 16 ft    LAC up 3 (99-96)     Win
2/2/2015     BRK    4th    00:26.0    LAC up 2 (98-96)      Miss 2-pt shot from 16 ft    LAC up 2 (98-96)     Loss
2/19/2015    SAS    4th    00:08.0    LAC up 1 (115-114)    Make 2-pt shot from 16 ft    LAC up 3 (117-114)
2/19/2015    SAS    4th    01:11.0    LAC up 1 (110-109)    Make 2-pt shot from 8 ft     LAC up 3 (112-109)   Win
3/2/2015     MIN    4th    00:17.0    LAC up 3 (108-105)    Miss 2-pt shot from 8 ft     LAC up 3 (108-105)
3/2/2015     MIN    4th    00:38.0    LAC up 3 (106-103)    Make 2-pt shot from 19 ft    LAC up 5 (108-103)   Win
3/4/2015     POR    OT     03:37.0    LAC up 2 (89-87)      Miss 2-pt shot from 18 ft    LAC up 2 (89-87)     Loss

Second, when the game is tied:

Code: Select all

2011-12

FGA: 3-8 (0.375)
Rec: 6-2 (0.750)
2/6/2012     ORL    4th    01:38.0    LAC tied (91-91)      Make 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC up 2 (93-91)     Win
2/10/2012    PHI    4th    01:19.0    LAC tied (74-74)      Miss 2-pt shot from 17 ft    LAC tied (74-74)     Win
2/18/2012    SAS    4th    00:00.2    LAC tied (95-95)      Miss 2-pt shot from 14 ft    LAC tied (95-95)     Loss
3/17/2012    HOU    4th    00:24.6    LAC tied (89-89)      Make 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC up 2 (91-89)     Win
3/18/2012    DET    4th    00:00.1    LAC tied (74-74)      Miss 3-pt shot from 64 ft    LAC tied (74-74)     Win
4/11/2012    OKC    4th    00:08.8    LAC tied (98-98)      Make 2-pt shot from 1 ft     LAC up 2 (100-98)    Win
4/18/2012    DEN    4th    00:28.1    LAC tied (96-96)      Miss 2-pt shot from 17 ft    LAC tied (96-96)     Win
4/19/2012    PHO    4th    00:53.9    LAC tied (88-88)      Miss 2-pt shot from 17 ft    LAC tied (88-88)     Loss

2012-13

FGA: 4-5 (0.800)
Rec: 1-3 (0.250)
11/21/2012   OKC    4th    00:00.0    LAC tied (102-102)    Miss 2-pt shot from 14 ft    LAC tied (102-102)   Loss
12/3/2012    UTA    4th    00:39.9    LAC tied (99-99)      Make 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC up 2 (101-99)    Win
3/26/2013    DAL    4th    00:05.9    LAC tied (95-95)      Make 2-pt shot from 6 ft     LAC up 2 (97-95)
3/26/2013    DAL    OT     04:18.0    LAC tied (97-97)      Make 2-pt shot from 18 ft    LAC up 2 (99-97)     Loss
3/29/2013    SAS    4th    00:35.9    LAC tied (99-99)      Make 2-pt shot from 4 ft     LAC up 2 (101-99)    Loss

2013-14

FGA: 3-6 (0.500)
Rec: 4-1 (0.800)
11/23/2013   SAC    4th    01:04.0    LAC tied (98-98)      Make 2-pt shot from 1 ft     LAC up 2 (100-98)    Win
12/22/2013   MIN    OT     04:43.0    LAC tied (106-106)    Miss 2-pt shot from 9 ft     LAC tied (106-106)
12/22/2013   MIN    OT     04:41.0    LAC tied (106-106)    Make 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC up 2 (108-106)   Win
12/26/2013   POR    4th    00:01.0    LAC tied (101-101)    Miss 2-pt shot from 17 ft    LAC tied (101-101)   Loss
3/8/2014     ATL    4th    00:55.0    LAC tied (107-107)    Make 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC up 2 (109-107)   Win
3/27/2014    DAL    4th    00:55.0    LAC tied (101-101)    Miss 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC tied (101-101)   Win

2014-15

FGA: 0-4 (0%)
Rec: 2-1 (0.667)
12/8/2014    PHO    4th    00:00.0    LAC tied (112-112)    Miss 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC tied (112-112)
12/8/2014    PHO    OT     04:34.0    LAC tied (112-112)    Miss 3-pt shot from 25 ft    LAC tied (112-112)   Win
12/20/2014   MIL    4th    01:12.0    LAC tied (102-102)    Miss 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC tied (102-102)   Win
3/4/2015     POR    4th    00:01.0    LAC tied (87-87)      Miss 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC tied (87-87)     Loss

And finally, when his team is behind by no less than 3 PTS:

Code: Select all

2011-12

FGA: 8-19 (0.421)
Rec: 6-6 (0.500)
1/11/2012    MIA    4th    00:58.8    LAC down 1 (83-84)    Miss 2-pt shot from 11 ft    LAC down 1 (83-84)   Win
1/25/2012    LAL    4th    01:22.0    LAC down 2 (87-89)    Miss 3-pt shot from 28 ft    LAC down 2 (87-89)
1/25/2012    LAL    4th    00:51.0    LAC down 2 (87-89)    Miss 2-pt shot from 1 ft     LAC down 2 (87-89)   Loss
2/10/2012    PHI    4th    00:03.9    LAC down 1 (76-77)    Make 2-pt shot from 16 ft    LAC up 1 (78-77)     Win
2/18/2012    SAS    4th    01:32.0    LAC down 3 (87-90)    Make 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC down 1 (89-90)   
2/18/2012    SAS    4th    00:50.9    LAC down 1 (89-90)    Make 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC up 1 (91-90)
2/18/2012    SAS    OT     00:18.9    LAC down 3 (98-101)   Miss 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC down 3 (98-101)   
2/18/2012    SAS    OT     00:01.9    LAC down 3 (100-103)  Miss 3-pt shot from 28 ft    LAC down 3 (100-103) Loss
2/20/2012    GSW    4th    01:37.0    LAC down 1 (97-98)    Miss 2-pt shot from 18 ft    LAC down 1 (97-98)
2/20/2012    GSW    4th    01:04.0    LAC down 3 (97-100)   Miss 2-pt shot from 14 ft    LAC down 3 (97-100)  Loss
3/4/2012     HOU    4th    00:25.1    LAC down 1 (95-96)    Make 2-pt shot from 12 ft    LAC up 1 (97-96)
3/4/2012     HOU    OT     00:50.6    LAC down 1 (102-103)  Make 2-pt shot from 9 ft     LAC up 1 (104-103)   Win
3/5/2012     MIN    4th    00:00.3    LAC down 1 (94-95)    Miss 3-pt shot from 66 ft    LAC down 1 (94-95)   Loss
3/11/2012    GSW    4th    01:45.0    LAC down 3 (84-87)    Miss 2-pt shot from 10 ft    LAC down 3 (84-87)   Loss
3/17/2012    HOU    4th    00:57.6    LAC down 2 (87-89)    Make 2-pt shot from 10 ft    LAC tied (89-89)     Win
3/18/2012    DET    4th    00:19.9    LAC down 2 (72-74)    Miss 2-pt shot from 4 ft     LAC down 2 (72-74)
3/18/2012    DET    OT     00:22.1    LAC down 1 (81-82)    Make 2-pt shot from 16 ft    LAC up 1 (83-82)     Win
3/30/2012    POR    4th    00:05.0    LAC down 1 (96-97)    Make 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC up 1 (98-97)     Win
4/19/2012    PHO    4th    00:07.7    LAC down 1 (90-91)    Miss 2-pt shot from 5 ft     LAC down 1 (90-91)   Loss

2012-13

FGA: 4-8 (0.500)
Rec: 1-7 (0.125)
11/3/2012    GSW    4th    00:23.8    LAC down 3 (108-111)  Make 2-pt shot from 4 ft     LAC down 1 (110-111) Loss
11/21/2012   OKC    4th    01:53.0    LAC down 3 (95-98)    Miss 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC down 3 (95-98)   Loss
12/3/2012    UTA    4th    01:50.0    LAC down 1 (95-96)    Make 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC up 1 (97-96)     Win
1/12/2013    ORL    4th    00:33.5    LAC down 3 (99-102)   Make 2-pt shot from 15 ft    LAC down 1 (101-102) Loss
3/3/2013     OKC    4th    01:10.0    LAC down 1 (100-101)  Miss 2-pt shot from 7 ft     LAC down 1 (100-101) Loss
3/26/2013    DAL    4th    00:45.9    LAC down 2 (93-95)    Make 2-pt shot from 6 ft     LAC tied (95-95)     Loss
3/29/2013    SAS    4th    00:01.2    LAC down 2 (102-104)  Miss 2-pt shot from 7 ft     LAC down 2 (102-104) Loss
4/1/2013     IND    4th    00:03.9    LAC down 3 (104-107)  Miss 3-pt shot from 26 ft    LAC down 3 (104-107) Loss

2013-14

FGA: 5-13 (0.384)
Rec: 3-4 (0.428)
11/6/2013    ORL    4th    01:25.0    LAC down 1 (89-90)    Miss 3-pt shot from 25 ft    LAC down 1 (89-90)   Loss
11/23/2013   SAC    4th    01:29.0    LAC down 3 (95-98)    Make 3-pt shot from 25 ft    LAC tied (98-98)     Win
12/1/2013    IND    4th    01:35.0    LAC down 2 (98-100)   Miss 2-pt shot from 15 ft    LAC down 2 (98-100)
12/1/2013    IND    4th    00:32.0    LAC down 2 (100-102)  Miss 2-pt shot from 15 ft    LAC down 2 (100-102) Loss
12/22/2013   MIN    4th    01:50.0    LAC down 3 (100-103)  Miss 3-pt shot from 25 ft    LAC down 3 (100-103)
12/22/2013   MIN    OT     03:33.0    LAC down 2 (108-110)  Miss 3-pt shot from 24 ft    LAC down 2 (108-110)
12/22/2013   MIN    OT     01:54.0    LAC down 2 (110-112)  Make 2-pt shot from 9 ft     LAC tied (112-112)   Win
12/25/2013   GSW    4th    00:42.0    LAC down 2 (103-105)  Miss 2-pt shot from 9 ft     LAC down 2 (103-105)
12/25/2013   GSW    4th    00:12.0    LAC down 2 (103-105)  Miss 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC down 2 (103-105)
12/25/2013   GSW    4th    00:01.0    LAC down 2 (103-105)  Miss 2-pt shot from 7 ft     LAC down 2 (103-105) Loss
12/26/2013   POR    4th    01:08.0    LAC down 1 (95-96)    Make 2-pt shot from 18 ft    LAC up 1 (97-96)
12/26/2013   POR    4th    00:40.0    LAC down 1 (97-98)    Make 2-pt shot from 15 ft    LAC up 1 (99-98)     Loss
4/2/2014     PHO    4th    01:48.0    LAC down 1 (105-106)  Make 3-pt shot from 32 ft    LAC up 2 (108-106)   Win

2014-15

FGA: 3-9 (0.333)
Rec: 0-6 (0%)
11/10/2014   SAS    4th    00:03.0    LAC down 2 (85-87)    Miss 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC down 2 (85-87)   Loss
2/2/2015     BRK    4th    00:09.0    LAC down 2 (98-100)   Make 2-pt shot from 2 ft     LAC tied (100-100)   Loss
2/23/2015    MEM    4th    01:10.0    LAC down 3 (85-88)    Make 2-pt shot from 14 ft    LAC down 1 (87-88)
2/23/2015    MEM    4th    00:38.0    LAC down 1 (87-88)    Miss 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC down 1 (87-88)   Loss
3/4/2015     POR    OT     02:17.0    LAC down 2 (89-91)    Miss 2-pt shot from 17 ft    LAC down 2 (89-91)
3/4/2015     POR    OT     01:10.0    LAC down 2 (91-93)    Make 2-pt shot from 15 ft    LAC tied (93-93)     Loss
3/15/2015    HOU    4th    00:55.0    LAC down 1 (98-99)    Miss 2-pt shot from 3 ft     LAC down 1 (98-99)
3/15/2015    HOU    4th    00:01.0    LAC down 2 (98-100)   Miss 2-pt shot from 4 ft     LAC down 2 (98-100)  Loss
3/31/2015    GSW    4th    01:59.0    LAC down 3 (100-103)  Miss 3-pt shot from 25 ft    LAC down 3 (100-103) Loss

Notes:
1. Chris Paul excels in the clutch when the Clippers are in the lead. Despite having a total field goal percentage of 22-56 (0.392), he has a winning record whenever the Clippers have the lead once the 2 minute mark has passed. His Clipper clutch record in this situation is 29-5. Even if he misses free throws, or his shots don't go in, you can bet that if the Clippers have the lead, it's a win.

2. On the other side of the coin, when the Clippers are in a deficit, Paul's shot accuracy increases but at the expense of winning. Out of 49 shots, he made 20 of them for a FG% of 0.408. But his record is on the losing side: 10-23 whenever the Clippers are down by 3 within 2 minutes of the 4th quarter and all of overtime. That's a 0.434 losing percentage. Last year was his worst ever: 0-6 when his team was down by 3 when the 2 minute warning was announced.

Now we are left with questions. As long as the Clippers have the lead, Paul doesn't have to worry about creating his own shot. But when the team is in a deficit as close as 1, the pressure to seize control of the game weighs so heavily on him that he panics. Why does this happen?

Solving this puzzle will be the key to going deep into the playoffs.

[og15]

Generally those percentages are fairly low, and raw FG% doesn't take into account players taking and making three's, so it would be better to have TS%. Also many times in the clutch CP is breaking down the defense and getting an assist.

In terms of wins/losses when up or down, I don't think that is surprising at all. I believe if we look around the league that most teams are more likely to win when they are up later and a lot less likely to win when they are down later. How other teams records compare to the Clippers, I don't know.

Some bad teams probably just lose in both situations or are barely ever up that late, and some other good teams might lose more up two, but win more when down, etc.

I know since we watch them so much we think it is a Clipper issue, but in general teams just tend to go more stagnant down the stretch. The reason is obviously because with less time teams are trying to protect possessions and the ball touching fewer hands tends to cause less turnovers and have it more likely to be in the hand of your best player at a critical time, or if in a role players hands, it is for an open shot.

Clippers have probably had a bigger crunch time defense problem since CP has been here to be honest. I remember back in 11-12 and/or 12-13 it was pretty bad, but I don't think that was the case in the previous seasons, at least not to the same extent. Maybe we have a renaissance.

Clippers Clutch 15-16
42 mins played
111.6 Ortg (10th)
37.3% FG (18th)
33.3% 3PT (11th)
42.5% eFG (18th)
76.9 FT% (15th)
5.2 FTA (3rd)
0.776 FTArate (5th)
0.8 TOV (12th)

Clippers Opponent Clutch 15-16
131.0 Ortg (27th)
43.3% FG (18th)
44.0% 3PT (27th)
51.5% eFG (23rd)
5.4 FTA (29th)
0.806 FTA rate (26th)
1.4 OREB (26th)
0.8 TOV (17th)

Obviously the sample size for this season is not very big. It's 42 minutes total for the Clippers, and it isn't equal among all teams, so the ranking numbers of raw stats shouldn't be taken to the maximum extent since some teams have played more minutes per game determined as "clutch" than others. That said, the shooting numbers and per possessions / rate stats are fine.

I say this a lot because I know offense is always the first focus. Clippers are not perfect, Clippers late game offense has issues, etc. Still, most times the Clippers produce enough offense to win if they can defend better, other times not so much. Most fans interpret the Clippers lack of defense for lack of offense. The Clippers tend to play so poorly on defense that they basically have to score every time down the floor, and people think they are failing when they can't score on every trip.

Now for some consolation, SA is also giving up a high eFG% in clutch so far, but it's not really a consolation since overall they are the league's best defense so that is more likely to be sample size error for them than any sort of issue. FT's are obviously saving the team's Ortg as well as not turning it over much. Some of those FTA might be coming from intentional fouling, so that has to be taken into account. Percentages have not been so great, and I believe that was similar last season.

I think the Clippers need to find a good balance in crunch time in terms of lineups. I like the starting lineup used yesterday as a good balance of offense and defense as well as shooting. Secondly the team needs to stress trusting the system all the time, not most of the game and then going to isolation ball down the stretch. You have to keep trusting the system and playing the right way. That is on coaches sometimes too, don't get me wrong, and isolation is not necessarily wrong. I do hate players where they run pick and rolls trying to get a favorable switch, don't get it and just end up wasting time.

For example, I don't think the solution is to now start isolating Blake Griffin on an island more. I know there's the fear of turning it over trying to do too much on offense late, and the reality is that defenses get more focused and intense down the stretch, so some things are harder to come by. Still, the team needs to maintain what they do if they truly believe in it.

[TucsonClip]

The problem has always been that we either cant isolate Blake on the block because defenders help off DJ or Blake simply takes too long to go to work and doesnt post up low enough to be as effective as he can be.

Blake's post up game is fine, but has moves and counters, but he reoutinely has to take multiples dribbles to get lower on the block to execute his moves. If thats the case, then just square up and attack right away.

[Wammy Giveaway]

I may end up having to do a Blake Griffin one. And later on, I'm going to include free throws and turnovers from both Paul, Griffin, and possibly the team as a collective.

The only reason I did Paul initially was to prove that whenever the ball is in his hands in the 4th quarter, his shots were always going to miss. What I see from him is a guy who wants to be the man to finish off the enemy once and for all, and the only way to do that is to make a Sudden Death Shot (down one or two points, less than 5 sec. left, last shot ended the game, must be a winning shot). He's seen Kobe do it, LeBron do it; he wants to be part of that group. He's made game winning buzzer beating shots when the score was tied (2013 NBA Playoffs vs. Grizzlies Game 2), or made shots when there were still seconds remaining in the game (2015 NBA Playoffs vs. Spurs Game 7, 1 sec. remaining), but he's never made a shot when he was in a deficit AND it was a last second shot. There used to be a video on YouTube that highlighted all of Paul's game winners. None of them were Sudden Death Shots.

If I'm right about this, Chris Paul is 0-3 in Sudden Death Shots. This is just going by memory.

The only time the Clippers have made a Sudden Death Shot was last season against the Phoenix Suns, and it wasn't from Paul. Down 2 points in overtime, Griffin passed the ball inbounds to Paul. Paul set a screen, then returned the ball back to Griffin who would make a miraculous 3-pointer to defeat the Suns. Griffin was the one who made the Sudden Death Shot. Had the roles been reversed, I'd bet you that Paul would have missed this shot and the record when down by at least 3 points in the 2014-15 season would have been a ghastly 0-7.

When I first saw these records, I thought the only way the Clippers were going to survive a deficit in the final two minutes would be to bench Paul for the duration of the game until the Clippers regained the lead. Once the lead comes back, bring Paul back in. He wants those Sudden Death Shots so bad as if those shots would validate him as the best point guard in the world. But time after time, he would miss those shots. I've made previous statements saying that Chris Paul has to give up being a superstar and become a common role player. With Paul in the decline because of age, does this now become an issue?

Why I ask this: I don't want Paul to end up like Dominique Wilkins who never made the conference finals, Tracy McGrady who made the Finals by giving up playing time completely, or Elgin Baylor who retired, but got a ring from the Lakers out of sympathy.

[og15]

I think you look a little too much at patterns to make connections that might not be there. When we're talking about such small samples, the variability is pretty high. While the last second shot stuff is all nice, generally as a team you want to win before last second shots anyways

[mattd13]

I have said this many times that the clips need a better game plane in close games. you need to use all of your assets. jj scores in the first quarter and then is not used the rest of the game. why? when you only use one game plan every time it is easy to plan for.

[nickhx2]

unfortunately it's the old school and often predominant thought in basketball that you put out your best scorers/creators late in the game and to hell with all else. and often that means disavowing your entire offense which is clearly stupid because your offense is what gets you there in the first place if you're a good team.

[BlzMwt]

so when the clippers are up with 2 minutes left they have a better record compared to when they are down with 2 minutes left? and you think there is a huge correlation with this in regards to paul?

This is typical of any nba team, probably any sports team, they have a better record when they are in the lead.

You did some solid stats research, except when you make statements like Blake making a miraculous 3 point sudden death shot, but if Paul was taking it then he likely would have missed it... it really invalidates your analysis. Blake's shot was ridiculously lucky, in a game sitation he probably gets that bounce 1/1000 times if not worse. But because of this narrative that you have about Paul, Blake is able to make this shot but Paul won't?

I think as og said, your sample sizes are the problem. They cause you to lose sight of things.

Good stats work though, appreciate the time and thought you put into it