Charlotte Hornets Offseason Plan

JMAC3 · Post #1 » by **JMAC3** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:38 am

Hey Guys...

This season has been a blast so far!!! 10 wins through our first 17 games is way better than I thought we would be after looking at our schedule. Not to look too far ahead or past a great thing, but this offseason is going to be huge for this team. With only 7 guys under contract for next year we have a ton of options and not a lot easily decisions. Especially when considering these guys are all free agents:

Al Jefferson
Nicolas Batum
Marvin Williams
Jeremy Lin
Brian Roberts
PJ Hairston
Tyler Hansbrough
Troy Daniels

A lot questions...Do we want Jefferson back? How much is he worth? Should we pay Batum the max? Is Marvin going to be overpriced? Will Lin resign or look for starter minutes? Is anyone worth keeping outside those 4? Who is our starting frontcourt next year?

Only players under contract...

Kemba- Harrison
Lamb
MKG
Zeller
Hawes- Frank

Those 7 make up just under 47 million in Cap, projected cap 89 million, so 42 million to spend. Will we spend that on retaining our own guys or look to sign outside talent?

As far as outside talent goes there are several tiers of players, but overall looks like a weak free agent class especially considering the amount of space many teams will have. How much will players be overpaid?

Lastly, we will have our draft pick which could end up anywhere from pick 8 to pick 22 knowing this team. With the cap going up, draft picks are going to be extremely valuable and I do not see Cho giving them up. What do we do in Draft?

Again I know this is early, but we do not have a thread like this and hopefully this will keep these thoughts outside other threads...

JMAC3 · Post #2 » by **JMAC3** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:40 am

A Quick Look at the top of the 2016 Free Agent Market

Tier 1- The Prize
Kevin Durant- He is in a tier all by himself, will be the one everyone is chasing for and clearing cap space for. However, I think he resigns with OKC causing teams to miss out on a lot of solid other options.

Tier 2- The Future, all Young guys who will get big offers for Max, but teams will match

Andre Drummond
Bradley Beal
Harrison Barnes

Tier 3- All-stars, but will any change teams?

LeBron James- Will opt out and sign for new Max money for 5 years. Boring.
Dwight Howard- Really interesting... has a player option, but I think he opts out for long-term. Does Houston want?
Al Horford- Atlanta will offer Max, but he is unrestricted.
Paul Gasol- Player option, but will he opt out for long term deal? Title is top concern not money.
Dwayne Wade- Heat will keep but for how long/much?

Tier 4-Wildcard group, all will most likely get Max offers, but are they worth it?

Hassan Whiteside- Most deserving, but will he stay with Miami with so many teams chasing?
Demarr Derozan- Is Toronto excited to pay him huge bucks?
Nicolas Batum- Market will make him a max, but is he worth it?
Al Jefferson- Not as old as he plays, will he be willing to take less money for better situation?
Mike Conley- Hard to Value, will Memphis look to take step back and rebuild around Gasol?

Tier 5- The Legends, these guys have player options, but we all know they aren’t going anywhere

Tim Duncan
Dirk Nowitzki

Tier 6- Ooops, the rest of the guys that will get overpaid

Chandler Parsons- No Clue how much he is worth…
Rajon Rondo- Playing well and needs to get that last big deal.
Deron Williams- Player option, but with so much money floating he will opt out.
Joakim Noah- An MVP candidate not too long ago, seems disgruntled. Say goodbye Bulls
Brandon Jennings- Somebody will pay him.…Knicks maybe?
Jordan Clarkson- Young combo guard who has shown flashes. Brandon Knight 2.0?
Timothy Mozgov- Good defensive big with underrated offensive game

MasterIchiro · Post #3 » by **MasterIchiro** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:51 am

I would take Batum and Whiteside. I would package Cody with our 1st for an upgrade at PF or SG. I would re-sign Lin for the MLE.

Kemba
Lin
Lamb
Batum
MKG
Kaminsky
Whiteside
Cody + 1st

That's 8 of a 9 man rotation. Hawes, unless I can package 2nds with him for a slight upgrade.

tondi123 · Post #4 » by **tondi123** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:51 am

My guess is Jefferson is gone, we overpay to keep Batum, try to keep Marvin and Lin (although whether we do or not will be based on what the other teams are willing to pay), and bid adios to everyone else on the list unless we resign them for the vet minimum to fill out the bottom of the roster.

Liver_Pooty · Post #5 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:52 am

Makes me nervous to be honest. Everyone talks about needing go retain Batum, and rightfully so, but Marvin could be interesting. He could get a really nice pay day from someone, but depending on how Frank progresses I may look into spending that money elsewhere. I'd hate to lose him though.

Jefferson is a goner.

MasterIchiro · Post #6 » by **MasterIchiro** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:53 am

Wish Beal were unrestricted.

MasterIchiro · Post #7 » by **MasterIchiro** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:55 am

Just think of all the things we could run offensively with a stopper on each unit if we split MKG and Whiteside.

Post #8 » by **fatlever** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:55 am

Since I don't see any realistic chance of luring a big name free agent this summer, I would prefer to stay the course and at least retain Batum, Lin and Marvin. I'd let Jefferson go unless he was willing to take a massive pay cut and accept a much lesser role going forward. Hopefully we will see some internal growth with some of our young guys - MKG, Zeller, Frank and Lamb that will result in a better team next year.

And a very good chance, that despite a better than expected record, we still miss the playoffs and land a pick in the 10-14 range.

MasterIchiro · Post #9 » by **MasterIchiro** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:02 am

Put my name down for not wanting Marvin back at all.

Liver_Pooty · Post #10 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:08 am

Keeping my eye on Evan Fournier. That kid can flat out shoot the deep ball and is having a breakout year. If for some reason Batum bolts I'd go after him hard.

JMAC3 · Post #11 » by **JMAC3** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:14 am

Great feedback so far guys.

Would love to sign Whiteside, but I just do not think that is likely. If we do not resign Big Al, what is our solution at Center? What free agents do you think would be good solutions if we did not draft a center and Zeller and Kaminsky are not ready to be the starter.

Liver_Pooty · Post #12 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:19 am

JMAC3 wrote:Great feedback so far guys.

Would love to sign Whiteside, but I just do not think that is likely. If we do not resign Big Al, what is our solution at Center? What free agents do you think would be good solutions if we did not draft a center and Zeller and Kaminsky are not ready to be the starter.

Festus Ezeli would be a really nice under the radar signing for us. Good shot blocking big man that's in his prime.

MasterIchiro · Post #13 » by **MasterIchiro** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:40 am

Fournier is a nice thought but I think Batum stays. He can be a featured guy here and we have a kickass clubhouse. These guys are having fun. You can pencil him in.

Whiteside is from Gastonia. We are younger than the Heat. He's a huge Panthers fan as well. Hopefully we make a deep push in the playoffs and all his hometown friends can talk about is the Hornets.

Young centers who play with his athleticism and dominance are hard to find.

We need to go after him hard after we lock up Batum.

Braggins · Post #14 » by **Braggins** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:52 am

Great thread topic

Firstly, if we can't trade Hawes for an expiring contract I seriously think we should look into using the stretch provision on him. I cannot stand the idea of paying that scrub 6 million for two more seasons after this one and even though we have tons of cap we could still use the extra space if we want to resign Batum and throw a max at someone else.

Drummond is restricted, so he is getting matched no matter what. Horford is basically the perfect center for us, but if we waste our time pursuing an unlikely shot of getting him we could miss out on some other guys. Whiteside might be our best play if we are going for something big. I'm still a bit iffy on him but I think he might be someone we should really look into. I'm not really into any of the other center options tbh. They are all either old and declining or overrated. I want no part of Al Jefferson.

I want to resign Batum, but I'm not yet completely sold on the idea of giving him a max. I think I'd be pretty comfortable with a 5 years/18.5 mil per. Thats still a 6 million a year raise and would leave us with 23.5 million (27 if we stretch Hawes), which leaves us enough for a max deal for someone else and fill out our roster.

I actually do want to resign Marvin if the price is right since I believe we can go over the cap to resign him, which allows us to use our cap space more efficiently.

I think the ideal scenario for me at this point that is potentially at least somewhat realistic would this:

Stretch Hawes
Sign Whiteside for 3/20 with the 3rd year being a team option
Use the full MLE on Lin
Resign Batum for 5/18.5
Resign Marv for 3/10
Draft a backup SF

I think if we do all that in the right order it works and we wouldn't be that far over the cap (and we could even give a little more to Whiteside and Batum). We would be over by about 3 million plus our draft picks salary and the Lin's mid level salary. I believe we could throw in another smallish contract (before we resign Batum/Marv) and then also use the mini-MLE to fill out our depth.

Kemba/Lin
Batum/Lamb
MKG/Draft pick
Frank/Marv
Whiteside/Cody

Roy Tarpley · Post #15 » by **Roy Tarpley** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:03 am

I generally agree with what most posters are saying but I think a more fundamental question is what is the ultimate goal for the Hornets? Assuming it's a championship, you need championship level players. The Hornets' best players are Kemba, Batum, and Jefferson. Jefferson will likely be gone. The Hornets may re-sign Batum for big money, but he was the 4th best player on a Blazers team that never got beyond the 2nd round of the playoffs. Batum may be the 4th or 5th best player on a championship team but if he's the best or 2nd best player, that team isn't a championship team. Before this season, I would have argued that Kemba is one of the worst starting PGs in the league. Now, I think he's a solid NBA point guard but like Batum, I don't think he is championship level.

Ultimately, even if you have Kemba, Batum, Lamb, MKG, Frank develops, keep Lin, sign Whiteside -- this is still probably a 2nd round playoff team at best because there are no superstars. Maybe I'm just repeating Zach Lowe's article about the Hornets being in no man's land. You either need to sign a superstar FA (which probably isn't likely for a place like Charlotte) or you tank and get a superstar in the draft. Otherwise, you end up with a pretty good team, like the current one which may make the playoffs, but that's as far as you go.

Post #16 » by **yosemiteben** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:05 am

Above all else, we have to save space for Curry in 2017. Non-negotiable. If we tanked for a shot at a star, we damn well better save cap space for one.

HornetJail · Post #17 » by **HornetJail** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:19 am

Let's break this down:

We definitely have MKG, Kemba, Lamb, Zeller, Kaminsky on the books next season. That's $38,650,358, and our 1st rounder pushes us to just north of $40M. We'll say the cap is $90M, so that's $50M in cap space- not including Hawes, who is owed $6.35M next season and has a player option of $6.02M the following year. If we waive/stretch Hawes next summer, we would owe him $2.48M per year until 2021, saving $4M. So we have roughly $43.5M in cap space with Hawes, and $47.5M in cap space if we cut and stretch his contract.

Let's say we have a best case scenario targets all want to sign with us, and as a result we cut Hawes, and renounce all of our free agents except Batum (includes Al, Marvin, Roberts, Lin, PJ, Hansbrough, Daniels, Harrison). Our number 1 target is Al Horford with a 4 year max deal, starting at a whopping $27M. That leaves us with $20.5M to re-sign Nic Batum. If he has a terrific season, that may not be enough. Do we try to move Kaminsky for a future pick? Zeller? Do we use a future 1st rounder to dump Hawes' contract entirely?

Let's say we do the latter and Nic signs for $23M.

We have a lineup of Horford/Kaminsky/MKG/Batum/Kemba with Zeller/Lamb/rookie off the bench, and we're forced to fill out a lineup with only the room exception and a ton of minimum contracts. *note: we would have had the Bi-Annual exception as well, but we used that on Lin instead of using part of the MLE, which was stupid.

So at point guard and center, we'd pretty much have to draft a backup with our late-teens pick and sign a backup with the $3M-ish room exception (which is what Biyombo signed with TOR btw), and then fill out the 10-15 spots with vets and youngsters that continually travel to our shiny new D-League team.

Is the team a bit shallow? Absolutely, but our top 7 would be among the best in the conference. There are four guys with legitimate All-Star abilities (now or in the future) and this is as close to last season's ATL Hawks that we could possibly ask for.

Ideas for min. salary bench pieces: Troy Daniels, CDR, Tolliver, Kirk Hinrich, Tyler Hansbrough (throws up), Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson, James Johnson, D-League dudes, undrafted rookies

EDIT: and about Curry... the cap will be roughly $110M, Curry's max is $33M. Kemba, MKG, Nic, and Horford puts us at right at the magic number of $77M, meaning we'd either need to trade Lamb and Frank, and all other pieces, or Kemba in order to make the Curry dream happen.

Braggins · Post #18 » by **Braggins** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:23 am

yosemiteben wrote:Above all else, we have to save space for Curry in 2017. Non-negotiable. If we tanked for a shot at a star, we damn well better save cap space for one.

We might have to just keep ourselves from going too far over and count on a sign and trade if we want Curry. It might not be possible to keep open the 30 or so million it will take to outright sign Curry and keep our team good enough to win a playoff series next season.

Vanderbilt_Grad · Post #19 » by **Vanderbilt_Grad** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:23 am

You guys do realized that Whiteside has 10 total assists. As in ever. Dude isn't a great passer. For all of his other talent he would be a poor fit here.

MasterIchiro · Post #20 » by **MasterIchiro** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:44 am

It would be ideal to trade Al for a cheap rotation player, this way you have more than just cap space and you can squeeze out maybe two players, protecting the depth we enjoy.

Bring back Batum and target one more free agent and get a cheap,rotation player for Al.

Stretching Hawes would offset the cost of adding a small contract for Al.