Jays sign Happ 3 for 36

[Randle McMurphy]

Randle...if you were in any way arguing FOR the Happ deal, how could it not be based on 2015? There's nothing else in his history that would remotely justify that contract.

The possibility of sustaining some of that improvement was a factor, of course (and LaCava said as much on Saturday when talking about Happ's adjustments), but his stable floor of being a 1-2 WAR pitcher played no small part in it either. They're not buying him to repeat his 2015 season, nor does he need to pitch to that level again to make the contract worth it.

What kind of contract does he get if the 2nd half of last year doesn't happen? (honest question)

Well less than what he got (3/36), but obviously more than what AA gave him a few years ago to buy out his arbitration years (3/17). There's not much point in trying to guess as the market is different than it was in the past, but maybe something like the 2/20 Jason Hammel (a similar 1-2 win pitcher from Baltimore) got last season from the Cubs?

[Santoki]

Randle...if you were in any way arguing FOR the Happ deal, how could it not be based on 2015? There's nothing else in his history that would remotely justify that contract.

This thread hasn't even been a for or against the Happ deal discussion. It's pretty much been a philosophical team building discussion that often ignores the reality of the situation. Essentially it's an extension of the Price trade where those against it are now telling those for it why and how that deal is impacting deals like the one Happ was given. And the other side is saying "who cares about those prospects? You can win now? Sign a big pitcher we're all in!". But again that completely ignores the mandate corporate ownership has always had with this team.

Trying to get people to understand why Lecava and Shapiro have made the moves they've made is not arguing for the Happ deal. It's trying to bring some reality back to this place that was warned about in late July.

I've seen maybe a handful of posters actually really like this deal and the rest of the people not completely bashing it saying at best it's not the worst deal in the world (including Randle).

Put me in the "we're all in" camp. It's crazy not to go for it, IMO.

I'd love to join you in that camp but I've been following this team long enough to understand that Rogers as an owner isn't going to change. There's no point in wasting my time hoping that is going to change, so my only options are to quit watching the team or understand how management is trying to build a team on the budget set this year (which people have pegged rightly or wrongly around $140 million). I've done it this long and through the entire AA/Beeston regime, so I'm willing to give Lecava and Shapiro a chance before I burn them at the stake.

Also, if we're going for it in 2016, then you definitely don't trade someone like Troy Tulowitzki. It's all hands on deck this year and you figure out 2017 later (taking into account the reality of a budget likely set somewhere around the $140 million mark).

[YogiStewart]

Career numbers mean nothing for a 24 year old.

And I'd be willing to bet that even a hobbled Travis is more productive than Goins.

silly argument.
Goins is 27. he's had 1 more big league season than Travis.
Goins's career numbers also mean nothing, as do his great numbers he put up in his last 2 months.

Travis may be done for as far as we know. exploratory surgery to drain a cyst. his career can go either way. but i'd bet that if he returns to the jays, he's not putting up that 0.301 batting average or hitting those HRs again. those were outliers

[cram]

This thread hasn't even been a for or against the Happ deal discussion. It's pretty much been a philosophical team building discussion that often ignores the reality of the situation. Essentially it's an extension of the Price trade where those against it are now telling those for it why and how that deal is impacting deals like the one Happ was given. And the other side is saying "who cares about those prospects? You can win now? Sign a big pitcher we're all in!". But again that completely ignores the mandate corporate ownership has always had with this team.

Trying to get people to understand why Lecava and Shapiro have made the moves they've made is not arguing for the Happ deal. It's trying to bring some reality back to this place that was warned about in late July.

I've seen maybe a handful of posters actually really like this deal and the rest of the people not completely bashing it saying at best it's not the worst deal in the world (including Randle).

Put me in the "we're all in" camp. It's crazy not to go for it, IMO.

I'd love to join you in that camp but I've been following this team long enough to understand that Rogers as an owner isn't going to change. There's no point in wasting my time hoping that is going to change, so my only options are to quit watching the team or understand how management is trying to build a team on the budget set this year (which people have pegged rightly or wrongly around $140 million). I've done it this long and through the entire AA/Beeston regime, so I'm willing to give Lecava and Shapiro a chance before I burn them at the stake.

Also, if we're going for it in 2016, then you definitely don't trade someone like Troy Tulowitzki. It's all hands on deck this year and you figure out 2017 later (taking into account the reality of a budget likely set somewhere around the $140 million mark).

Do you believe that budget should be aligned with revenue?

[Raps in 4]

The Blue Jays are in no position to assume that the very limited sample size of Goins and Travis' play is worth much at this point.

Travis was the team's second best player over 60+ games. The two shouldn't be brought up in the same sentence.

[Raps in 4]

Career numbers mean nothing for a 24 year old.

And I'd be willing to bet that even a hobbled Travis is more productive than Goins.

silly argument.
Goins is 27. he's had 1 more big league season than Travis.
Goins's career numbers also mean nothing, as do his great numbers he put up in his last 2 months.

Travis may be done for as far as we know. exploratory surgery to drain a cyst. his career can go either way. but i'd bet that if he returns to the jays, he's not putting up that 0.301 batting average or hitting those HRs again. those were outliers

I find it hard to believe that 2+ WAR in over 60 games was an outlier.

[Santoki]

Career numbers mean nothing for a 24 year old.

And I'd be willing to bet that even a hobbled Travis is more productive than Goins.

silly argument.
Goins is 27. he's had 1 more big league season than Travis.
Goins's career numbers also mean nothing, as do his great numbers he put up in his last 2 months.

Travis may be done for as far as we know. exploratory surgery to drain a cyst. his career can go either way. but i'd bet that if he returns to the jays, he's not putting up that 0.301 batting average or hitting those HRs again. those were outliers

I find it hard to believe that 2+ WAR in over 60 games was an outlier.

There's plenty of examples of a rookie coming in and having a hot start and then completely levelling off. We don't have to look any further than Brett Lawrie for our own recent example.

[rarefind]

The Blue Jays are in no position to assume that the very limited sample size of Goins and Travis' play is worth much at this point.

Travis was the team's second best player over 60+ games. The two shouldn't be brought up in the same sentence.

Travis' major league experience is limited to the entire 60+ games you refer to, they have every right being in same sentence. His success comparatively speaking to Goins' 2 and a half month stretch where he was hitting like an all-star calibre 2b is a wash. The only difference being that Goins had been (and probably still is) a much below average offensive player while Travis is a unknown aside from 2 months of service.

Factor in him rehabbing his shoulder and in all likelihood probably being able to start a rehab until May which further hampers the situation. I'm high as anyone on Travis, but he is far from a sure thing at this point.

[Santoki]

Put me in the "we're all in" camp. It's crazy not to go for it, IMO.

I'd love to join you in that camp but I've been following this team long enough to understand that Rogers as an owner isn't going to change. There's no point in wasting my time hoping that is going to change, so my only options are to quit watching the team or understand how management is trying to build a team on the budget set this year (which people have pegged rightly or wrongly around $140 million). I've done it this long and through the entire AA/Beeston regime, so I'm willing to give Lecava and Shapiro a chance before I burn them at the stake.

Also, if we're going for it in 2016, then you definitely don't trade someone like Troy Tulowitzki. It's all hands on deck this year and you figure out 2017 later (taking into account the reality of a budget likely set somewhere around the $140 million mark).

Do you believe that budget should be aligned with revenue?

It doesn't really matter what I believe does it? It doesn't change anything.

I would love to have an owner like Illitch that just spends to win and doesn't care about the next fiscal quarter, but that's not who we have running the team. And I won't pretend to understand how these guys make financial/baseball decisions because every time I think I have them figured out they do something seemingly logic-defying (like nuke a proper rebuild in 2013 with all those trades and then standing pat at the deadline in 2014 when the Jays had a legitimate chance at the division only to let AA sacrifice a large portion of the future only one year later while 7 back).

So, I'll hold out the tiniest bit of hope that Rogers once again decides to spend like drunken sailors but at this payroll level I doubt it happens.

[Raps in 4]

The Blue Jays are in no position to assume that the very limited sample size of Goins and Travis' play is worth much at this point.

Travis was the team's second best player over 60+ games. The two shouldn't be brought up in the same sentence.

Travis' major league experience is limited to the entire 60+ games you refer to, they have every right being in same sentence. His success comparatively speaking to Goins' 2 and a half month stretch where he was hitting like an all-star calibre 2b is a wash. The only difference being that Goins had been (and probably still is) a much below average offensive player while Travis is a unknown aside from 2 months of service.

Factor in him rehabbing his shoulder and in all likelihood probably being able to start a rehab until May which further hampers the situation. I'm high as anyone on Travis, but he is far from a sure thing at this point.

Travis was elite before and after his first DL stint. He also managed to fight through a slump in May and return to elite hitting. Those are all good signs that he wasn't just on a hot streak and that he can sustain this long term. Goins had a single uninterrupted month where he was an elite hitter (the only month he was an above average hitter). There really is no comparison between the two.

[rarefind]

Travis was the team's second best player over 60+ games. The two shouldn't be brought up in the same sentence.

Travis' major league experience is limited to the entire 60+ games you refer to, they have every right being in same sentence. His success comparatively speaking to Goins' 2 and a half month stretch where he was hitting like an all-star calibre 2b is a wash. The only difference being that Goins had been (and probably still is) a much below average offensive player while Travis is a unknown aside from 2 months of service.

Factor in him rehabbing his shoulder and in all likelihood probably being able to start a rehab until May which further hampers the situation. I'm high as anyone on Travis, but he is far from a sure thing at this point.

Travis was elite before and after his first DL stint. He also managed to fight through a slump in May and return to elite hitting. Those are all good signs that he wasn't just on a hot streak and that he can sustain this long term. Goins had a single uninterrupted month where he was an elite hitter (the only month he was an above average hitter). There really is no comparison between the two.

You're talking about 60 something games. I am not hinting that Goins will ever be a better hit than Travis but to suggest that one or either of those guys can be depended on outright without having to earn an everyday job is massively irresponsible. Having early success in your career is encouraging but it doesn't close to book on what a player is going to accomplish over the span of their career. By this logic, Marcus Stroman has already won the 2016 Cy Young Award.

[joseph227]

Travis' major league experience is limited to the entire 60+ games you refer to, they have every right being in same sentence. His success comparatively speaking to Goins' 2 and a half month stretch where he was hitting like an all-star calibre 2b is a wash. The only difference being that Goins had been (and probably still is) a much below average offensive player while Travis is a unknown aside from 2 months of service.

Factor in him rehabbing his shoulder and in all likelihood probably being able to start a rehab until May which further hampers the situation. I'm high as anyone on Travis, but he is far from a sure thing at this point.

Travis was elite before and after his first DL stint. He also managed to fight through a slump in May and return to elite hitting. Those are all good signs that he wasn't just on a hot streak and that he can sustain this long term. Goins had a single uninterrupted month where he was an elite hitter (the only month he was an above average hitter). There really is no comparison between the two.

You're talking about 60 something games. I am not hinting that Goins will ever be a better hit than Travis but to suggest that one or either of those guys can be depended on outright without having to earn an everyday job is massively irresponsible. Having early success in your career is encouraging but it doesn't close to book on what a player is going to accomplish over the span of their career. By this logic, Marcus Stroman has already won the 2016 Cy Young Award.

It's not so much that Travis can be relied upon, it's the fact that outside of August, Goins has been a terrible hitter all through his professional career including the minors. If Travis is healthy he should get the job to see if he's the real deal, we're not talking about him taking a spot away from a star second basemen here, we're talking about Goins.

And Goins was hitting like an all-star for 2 and half months, more like for 24 games.

[rarefind]

Travis was elite before and after his first DL stint. He also managed to fight through a slump in May and return to elite hitting. Those are all good signs that he wasn't just on a hot streak and that he can sustain this long term. Goins had a single uninterrupted month where he was an elite hitter (the only month he was an above average hitter). There really is no comparison between the two.

You're talking about 60 something games. I am not hinting that Goins will ever be a better hit than Travis but to suggest that one or either of those guys can be depended on outright without having to earn an everyday job is massively irresponsible. Having early success in your career is encouraging but it doesn't close to book on what a player is going to accomplish over the span of their career. By this logic, Marcus Stroman has already won the 2016 Cy Young Award.

It's not so much that Travis can be relied upon, it's the fact that outside of July, Goins has been a terrible hitter all through his professional career including the minors. If Travis is healthy he should get the job to see if he's the real deal, we're not talking about him taking a spot away from a star second basemen here, we're talking about Goins.

That isn't my point, at all. I am just trying to illustrate the fact that neither player is a certainty next year. This thread has been derailed with the logic of moving Tulo (which they can't easily with his NTC) and letting Travis and Goins become your middle infielders which is absurd.

[YogiStewart]

silly argument.
Goins is 27. he's had 1 more big league season than Travis.
Goins's career numbers also mean nothing, as do his great numbers he put up in his last 2 months.

Travis may be done for as far as we know. exploratory surgery to drain a cyst. his career can go either way. but i'd bet that if he returns to the jays, he's not putting up that 0.301 batting average or hitting those HRs again. those were outliers

I find it hard to believe that 2+ WAR in over 60 games was an outlier.

There's plenty of examples of a rookie coming in and having a hot start and then completely levelling off. We don't have to look any further than Brett Lawrie for our own recent example.

plus the true stats would be his career stats at all levels.

[dballislife]

1. stroman
2. estada
3. dickey
4. happ
5. hutch
6. chavez

man that doesnt look appealing...gotta get 1 more arm and bump estrada and ever1 else down 1 spot