Don't Be Hurtin' Lin - The Jeremy Lin Thread 2

[Flip Murray]

kemba is playing 40mins because he has been playing very good, same with lamb. if lin wants more time he needs to play better, he shouldn't get minutes he doesn't deserve.

But how come Lin did not get these increased minutes when he was playing better at the start of the year?

He had arguably the best pre-season in the whole league, shooting close to 50%FG and 40% 3 point, but that didn't mean much to Clifford, so I wonder whether Lin's minutes would really increased if he were to average, let's say, 15 point in the next 3 games..He's probably have to put these numbers under 18-22 minutes..

From what I've seen, it looks like Clifford has a dead-set amount of minutes he would like to play Lin which is around 18-22...Every time Lin has played above 25, it was because of injuries......Even when he's played well, that range has remained intact..Even when Lin finishes game, that really falls under the same range.

Lin's minute containment may be because of Lin's turnovers since Clifford is known to have no tolerance for it...so Clifford feel that he needs to keep Lin's minute tight so that the team can keep the ball.

Counterpoint Nic Batum's minutes

[sidestep]

Similarly, in GTs I've seen it suggested that Lin is pulled in the first half if he picks two fouls, but I'm pretty sure Cliff does this with everyone. I think it's an archaic idea to sit a player for the remainder of a half because they've used 1/3rd of their fouls, but I have t observed it being Lin specific. Just throwing it out there because I don't remember it being addressed.

When I talked about the issue of 2PF in first half in the last game thread, I stated it was a general principle with Cliff. I don't recall anyone saying it was specific to Lin.

I wouldn't say Cliff's principle is archaic. Depends on its purpose. If the goal is to maximize someone's playing time and contribution on the court, then I agree it's an unnecessary restriction, especially if that player is putting together a run, or is an important part of how the game is flowing.

But I think Cliff's goal is to train players to defend without fouling. The restriction incentivizes players to play Cliff's way. I haven't ever heard Cliff state that explicitly but it's definitely not a coincidence that the Hornets are #2 in the entire league for lowest total PFs per game.
http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/?sort=PF&dir=-1

Popovich also understands the importance of minimizing fouling. That's why his team is #1 in lowest total PFs.

If we are in a playoff game, or a must-win game, and Cliff pulled a player for 2PFs in a half, it would definitely be a questionable decision. But at the start of the season, the restriction serves a purpose. It's part of the process, so in that sense I think it's justified.

[Walt Cronkite]

Lin's usage rate is currently the second highest of his career and his turnover rate is the second best he's had. I would propose that the imagined minute restriction is most likely due to bad luck (getting 2 fouls in half one, limiting his possible minutes overall) that is compounded by career best years from Kemba and Lamb. If we believe in regression to the mean, we ought to see Lin's minutes increase (although his average is currently only 3 and some change less than his career average).

[Lorenzomax7]

Lin's back issue is causing the problem here... I'd blame Ang Lee.

Seriously ... I hope Lin can get healthier soon.

[bws94]

hood, Lin had games of 28, 29 and 30 minutes back to back to back (ok, one was an OT game). A player off the bench has fluctuating minutes. I don't have a set amount of minutes and I haven't talked about Lin's stats. Lin is part of trying to help the team and Lin and Lamb together have solid chemistry. In my eye test, Lamb performs on the court best with Lin playing alongside him. The two of them in a few games have hooked up on lobs and breakaways. These two have chemistry. They are a tandem. Some Charlotte fans call them Limb and others the Jeremys.

And what's with Kemba coming in for Lin? Have you seen how much Kemba has played alongside Lin? Just because Kemba is in doesn't mean Lin goes out. In fact, it's one of the tandems Clifford is trying to build on the team.

[Walt Cronkite]

When I talked about the issue of 2PF in first half in the last game thread, I stated it was a general principle with Cliff. I don't recall anyone saying it was specific to Lin.

I wouldn't say Cliff's principle is archaic. Depends on its purpose. If the goal is to maximize someone's playing time and contribution on the court, then I agree it's an unnecessary restriction, especially if that player is putting together a run, or is an important part of how the game is flowing.

But I think Cliff's goal is to train players to defend without fouling. The restriction incentivizes players to play Cliff's way. I haven't ever heard Cliff state that explicitly but it's definitely not a coincidence that the Hornets are #2 in the entire league for lowest total PFs per game.
http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/?sort=PF&dir=-1

Popovich also understands the importance of minimizing fouling. That's why his team is #1 in lowest total PFs.

If we are in a playoff game, or a must-win game, and Cliff pulled a player for 2PFs in a half, it would definitely be a questionable decision. But at the start of the season, the restriction serves a purpose. It's part of the process, so in that sense I think it's justified.

I cannot agree with you in this instance. Were Cliff to bench people for reaching in or making two bad plays that were fouls in his judgement, that would be one thing. With it being something he does across the board, it is entirely left to the subjective opinion of a rotating crew of officials, so it isn't necessarily teaching anything. Due to this, I think it is a long held notion that exists in basketball that I personally disagree with because there doesn't seem to be a correlation and you are potentially harming your chances of winning by playing the risk reward of an unknown possible 3rd foul vs the definite impact keeping a player off the court intentionally will have. Anyway, Lin does have a pretty high pf/g, though I don't know of a breakdown by half, which would be more useful.

[JDR720]

kemba is playing 40mins because he has been playing very good, same with lamb. if lin wants more time he needs to play better, he shouldn't get minutes he doesn't deserve.

But how come Lin did not get these increased minutes when he was playing better at the start of the season when he had a 21 PER and averaging 13ppg coming off the bench?

He had arguably the best pre-season in the whole league, shooting close to 50%FG and 40% 3 point, but that didn't mean much to Clifford, so I wonder whether Lin's minutes would really increase if he were to average, let's say, 15 point in the next 3 games..He'll probably have to put these numbers under 18-22 minutes range..

From what I've seen, it looks like Clifford has a dead-set amount of minutes he would like to play Lin which is around 18-22 and nothing will get him to budge from it...Every time Lin has played above 25, it was because of injuries......Even when he's played well, that range has remained intact..Even when Lin finished games, his minutes felt under the same range...That is because he comes in late in the first and 3rd quarter, so this fact is stealthily containing his minutes on even good nights.

Lin's minute containment may be because of his turnovers since Clifford is known to have no tolerance for it..But than again, Batum is turning the ball over at an higher rate than Lin...I'm sure it's because they need to keep Batum happy so he can sign next year.

Lin minutes by game this season.

game 1- 17/1/2. 27mins
game 2- 12/4/4 27nins
game 3- 7/2/5 21mins
game 4- 15/4/5 19mins
game 5- 7/2/1 17mins
game 6- 12/2/3 22mins
game 7- 19/3/1 26mins
game 8- 17/2/3 21mins
game 9 - 4/1/1 17mins
game 10- 5/0/3 20mins
game 11- 13/5/3 28mins
game 12- 13/9/4 29mins
game 13- 9/3/2 in 29mins
game 14- 14/3/3 in 31mins
game 15- 5/0/0 in 15mins
game 16- 7/4/4 in 20mins
game 17- 7/3/4 in 22mins

*good game is this, bad game is this, ok game is this*

average minutes in a good game- 25.5
average minutes in a bad game- 17.3
average minutes in a ok game- 21.8

[fatlever]

People should be reminded that two of Lin's lowest min totals this year were in games that were complete blowouts by the start of the 4th. Not playing in the 4th (garbage time) greatly affected Lin since that is one of the two quarters where he generally gets his minutes. Sadly, there were a couple people complaining that Lin should have been left in the game during garbage time in order to meet his imaginary minutes number and to pad his stats.

Clifford almost always benches his core guys when they pick up 2 fouls in the 1st half. Only non rotation guys are usually allowed to play thru 2 fouls in the 1st. We had to deal with this painfully with MKG two years ago. The refs were not yet used to how good MKG was on defense and he didnt yet have the reputation, so MKG was always picking up 2 fouls in the first 8 minutes of the 1st. As a result he had a lot of games that year where his minutes were in the low 20s, even though he was one of the best players on the team. Clifford wants his closers to be free from foul trouble in the 4th, plus, as others mentioned, it helps reinforce his mantra of no fouls. Occasionally he will risk playing someone with 2 fouls if we are in the middle of a big run against us and a change is desperately needed. The other night there were a few Lin fans freaking out about Lin being sent to the bench when he picked up his 2nd, claiming some kind of bias, but it was nothing more than Clifford doing what he has done for his 3 years here, nothing more, nothing less.

[TinmanZBoy]

People should be reminded that two of Lin's lowest min totals this year were in games that were complete blowouts by the start of the 4th. Not playing in the 4th (garbage time) greatly affected Lin since that is one of the two quarters where he generally gets his minutes. Sadly, there were a couple people complaining that Lin should have been left in the game during garbage time in order to meet his imaginary minutes number and to pad his stats.

Clifford almost always benches his core guys when they pick up 2 fouls in the 1st half. Only non rotation guys are usually allowed to play thru 2 fouls in the 1st. We had to deal with this painfully with MKG two years ago. The refs were not yet used to how good MKG was on defense and he didnt yet have the reputation, so MKG was always picking up 2 fouls in the first 8 minutes of the 1st. As a result he had a lot of games that year where his minutes were in the low 20s, even though he was one of the best players on the team. Clifford wants his closers to be free from foul trouble in the 4th, plus, as others mentioned, it helps reinforce his mantra of no fouls. Occasionally he will risk playing someone with 2 fouls if we are in the middle of a big run against us and a change is desperately needed. The other night there were a few Lin fans freaking out about Lin being sent to the bench when he picked up his 2nd, claiming some kind of bias, but it was nothing more than Clifford doing what he has done for his 3 years here, nothing more, nothing less.

for your patience

[hood30]

hood, Lin had games of 28, 29 and 30 minutes back to back to back (ok, one was an OT game). A player off the bench has fluctuating minutes. I don't have a set amount of minutes and I haven't talked about Lin's stats. Lin is part of trying to help the team and Lin and Lamb together have solid chemistry. In my eye test, Lamb performs on the court best with Lin playing alongside him. The two of them in a few games have hooked up on lobs and breakaways. These two have chemistry. They are a tandem. Some Charlotte fans call them Limb and others the Jeremys.

And what's with Kemba coming in for Lin? Have you seen how much Kemba has played alongside Lin? Just because Kemba is in doesn't mean Lin goes out. In fact, it's one of the tandems Clifford is trying to build on the team.

The only game he went over 25 with both Lamb and Hairston healthy was the overtime game...If you remove the overtime minutes, that puts him under 25....

It would be interesting to see whether the 18-22 minute range would be loosen if Lin were to explode...As long as Lin is the last sub off the bench, his minute will be contained...and if you think long and hard about it, Lamb will get his minutes because he will be here for 3 years and has a large contract...Kemba is the face of the franchise, so he gets at least 35mpg....P.J will continue to get his 20 minutes because Batum needs to stay fresh and away from guarding anyone that's 6'6 and can score...those 3 facts leaves no room for Lin regardless of whether Lin puts up a few 15point game in the next 2-3 games....

My guess is this is probably just a 1 year thing for Lin and the Hornets since his minute will even get worse with MKG back...Unless Lin is okay with 15mpg, he won't be back..If he can't get 25 now, he surely won't get a consistent 20 with MKG healthy.

[bws94]

So why doesn't Lamb get Batum's minutes? Batum starts at SG, Lin is a PG/SG or whatever he is when he's on the court with Kemba. Batum doesn't have any contract, does he?

Maybe it is just pure old simple basketball matchups and how someone looks in a game in a matchup or what the opponent is doing (going samll small, medium small medium big or pretty big) that determines the personnel for the lineup. Maybe it isn't geared toward trying to make any player get any amount of minutes. Big minutes go to Kemba and Batum, nobody else has such steady minutes. Including Lamb.

[sidestep]

When I talked about the issue of 2PF in first half in the last game thread, I stated it was a general principle with Cliff. I don't recall anyone saying it was specific to Lin.

I wouldn't say Cliff's principle is archaic. Depends on its purpose. If the goal is to maximize someone's playing time and contribution on the court, then I agree it's an unnecessary restriction, especially if that player is putting together a run, or is an important part of how the game is flowing.

But I think Cliff's goal is to train players to defend without fouling. The restriction incentivizes players to play Cliff's way. I haven't ever heard Cliff state that explicitly but it's definitely not a coincidence that the Hornets are #2 in the entire league for lowest total PFs per game.
http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/?sort=PF&dir=-1

Popovich also understands the importance of minimizing fouling. That's why his team is #1 in lowest total PFs.

If we are in a playoff game, or a must-win game, and Cliff pulled a player for 2PFs in a half, it would definitely be a questionable decision. But at the start of the season, the restriction serves a purpose. It's part of the process, so in that sense I think it's justified.

I cannot agree with you in this instance. Were Cliff to bench people for reaching in or making two bad plays that were fouls in his judgement, that would be one thing. With it being something he does across the board, it is entirely left to the subjective opinion of a rotating crew of officials, so it isn't necessarily teaching anything. Due to this, I think it is a long held notion that exists in basketball that I personally disagree with because there doesn't seem to be a correlation and you are potentially harming your chances of winning by playing the risk reward of an unknown possible 3rd foul vs the definite impact keeping a player off the court intentionally will have. Anyway, Lin does have a pretty high pf/g, though I don't know of a breakdown by half, which would be more useful.

You make a good point that many fouls do not make for teachable moments, and are outside the reasonable control of the player, or are the result of debatable officiating. But from a managerial point of view，it's more straightforward -- that is, it's easier for Cliff -- to just rigidly follow the guideline, instead of parsing which fouls are teachable situations and which aren't. It's certainly rigid. This early in the season, it doesn't really bother me, but I will be more inclined to share your view as the season wears on. The playoff race is a thing.

As for Lin's fouling rate -- setting aside the officiating, and just looking at his tendencies -- I'd say that number probably will not come down by much because he is in 'free safety' help mode almost all the time. When the defense breaks down, especially in the paint, he'll help -- just being near the action that often inevitably picks up extra personal fouls. Also, on defense, he often tries to draw charges, and that's a 50/50 call that can easily end up a blocking foul. And then there is Lin picking up offensive fouls (charges) by being really aggressive with his drives. All things considered, it probably won't be uncommon for him to hit Cliff's 2PF limit in the first half.

[bws94]

Lin will get his share of offensive fouls too. When you are a dribble/drive penetrator, some opposing defenders just know how to draw the offensive foul. That's where some of his TOs come from too.

[RevolDas]

We won 5 out of the 6 games recently played, so I don't mind Lin's min for now. Plus Kemba and Lamb are both playing exceedingly well now. It's actually a blessing that we have an offensive weapon in Lin that can be unleashed when Kemba and Lamb cool down.

Though I do agree that we could have nab the win against Calvary if Lin played in the 4th. But I wouldn't worry about it unless it happens a few more times later on.

[lin is ok]

if any Lin fan who think PFV's (self titled "your NBA expert") dissection of Lin's games or his teams' games is deep or balanced, then you probably really don't have depth understanding NBA and basketball
PFV is a good dude though

Oh man, this guy even has haters. LOL.

off course he is lin homer. but he is pretty fair, go see the recent podcast . he actually is happy with lin's contribution in the last game vs bucks.

[ils411]

I don't get all the fuss about Lin's minutes.

Sure, personally, I'd like to see him between 24-28ish MPG but hey, he's averaging over 20 so no biggie.

Plus lets not forget that Cliff has benched both Al and Kemba. Way I see it, Cliff is playing it by which line-up will allow the team to win more. Kemba is playing great and I see no reason why he wouldn't get lots of minutes. Same with Lamb, he has been a little bit more consistent than Lin so no problems there.

We've also seen Cliff have Lin close out games. Not bad if you ask me.

Personally, I hope Lin stays with the Hornets long term. Building continuity and chemistry will go a long way and the longer Lin stays with the Hornets, the better he will be and the better the Hornets will be too.

Win-Win situation for both. A solid talent off the bench or even start every now and then depending on match ups for Charlotte and a place for Lin to call home...not bad if you as me.

A deep team with a starting unit able to at least hang with the best starting units in the league plus a 2nd unit able to kick the best teams 2nd unit will equate to more wins than loses.

All-stars and super stars win games, but great teams win championships...I am a subscriber of the philosophy that a bunch of good players with synergy and chemistry and incorporated defensive and offensive systems can win over teams with super stars that more often than not, caries those teams...unless if its the Warriors and the Spurs...then you're screwed lol.

[Roy Tarpley]

We should do a reverse day where all the Lin fans argue against more minutes or for even less minutes, and vice versa for the other side of the coin.

[EwingSweatsALot]

We should do a reverse day where all the Lin fans argue against more minutes or for even less minutes, and vice versa for the other side of the coin.

The reverse day should just be them not arguing at all.

[13th Man]

...

[Teddyb]

kemba is playing 40mins because he has been playing very good, same with lamb. if lin wants more time he needs to play better, he shouldn't get minutes he doesn't deserve.

First I think Lin is playing well...not great but ok....again the reason his minutes are limited is because datum, lamb and walker are all playing better....its that simple...

The team is winning....end of story