The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1)

[cpower]

Well, to be fair in this September 16 post he says that

"I think Curry peaked higher than Magic and Bird"

Yes, but Curry right after the finals is a step below this Curry....clearly.

If anyone would have said Curry is going to lead the league by a significant margin in all offensive categories, while leading his team to an undefeated record after 17 games then you can pound your chest.

Show me that post......

Here's the thing, and I don't want to take this too far because I have enormous respect to the work Curry put in this offseason and he's made substantial improvements to his game, but: Curry isn't actually performing at a level a "step above" his previous self right now. His AST/TOV ratio is worse, his 3P% is the same out to 1 decimal place, he's taking for the most part the same shots last year. The big difference with him right now is he's hitting at a dramatically improved rate below the arc and he's shooting about 5 times more per game. It's very respectable that he's finishing so well at the rim now (a previous weakness) and particularly he's developed a killer floater so his 3-10 fg% has skyrocketed. But his actual 3 point shooting (what makes him special) has not actually improved besides him doing it more often.

So yeah there's really no reason to watch this year's Curry and say "I'm blown away with the stuff he's doing this year", because people who had an accurate grasp on him last year aren't blown away by this. If you specifically said "Curry would be a much better player if he attempted 5 more shots per game", then kudos to you, but to think he's reached a totally new level of play isn't quite accurate and speaks to a propensity to put waaaaaaaaaaay too much faith in volume scoring numbers and their derived metrics.

Curry raised his ppg by 8.8 (32.6 to 23.8) and TS% by 4.7(68.5 to 63.8) You are witnessing the MIP this season from a former MVP. If this is not mind-blowing, I don't know what is.

[Dr Spaceman]

his 3P% is the same out to 1 decimal place, he's taking for the most part the same shots last year.

This isn't actually a small thing. Maintaining efficiency while increasing volume is actually difficult... and he's actually in the middle of the only player-season in NBA history of 9+ 3PA/g... and still shooting that percentage. If you take out McCloud's 96 season and focus only on seasons with the full-distance line, we've only ever seen 8+ 3PA/g on five other occasions... one of which was Steph Curry last season, two of which were Ray Allen and the others were 04 Baron (32.1%) and 91 Michael Adams (29.6%).

So we're really talking about unprecedented conjunction of volume and efficiency from 3, except from himself and from Ray Allen, who was a lot more off-ball.

This is actually not the same as last year,it's 3.5 extra shots PER GAME from 3pt range. That is HUGE, even if the raw 3P% is the same.

So yeah there's really no reason to watch this year's Curry and say "I'm blown away with the stuff he's doing this year", because people who had an accurate grasp on him last year aren't blown away by this.

This is wrong. There's EVERY reason to be blown away that he's doing this, because if he keeps it up, it's the single most incredible shooting season in the history of the sport, by a significant margin. He's approaching a volume increase of 40% while still shooting the ATG elite percentage he managed on his last major season. That's big, even if you grokked what he was doing last season.

Yeah, I mean I'm not trying to come across as though I'm yawning watching him play. I'm responding to the general notion that now we can start discussing him in the elite all-time offensive context when that's been true for a while. The actual breakthrough that's happening is him going from one of the best offensive players ever to the single best if his current ridiculous pace actually continues.

He's way better than I expected him to be this season but the lingering skepticism, as if he needs to "prove" himself, after an MVP and a championship is off-putting.

EDIT: Looking back, I interpreted G35's post the wrong way based on other conversations I've had recently. Cheers

[ThunderDan9]

I've just finished watching the Suns game... UNREAL.

Eddie Johnson says it right: Curry takes "bad shots" - by all standard basketball knowledge. But he makes them "bad", and so breaks the opposition...
Basically all you can do is pray that he (and the Warriors) go cold... if not, game over.

The question is... will other follow? Will there be other players like Steph? Taking 12 threes a game, and making 45% of them?

[Johnny Firpo]

The question is... will other follow? Will there be other players like Steph? Taking 12 threes a game, and making 45% of them?

Surely, it's part of the game's evolution. Granted, we may have to wait 20 years for it but it will happen. Young kids will practice the long ball all day because they will want to become the next Steph Curry. Coaches will also put more emphasis on it, therefore better and better three point shooters will get drafted.

[tsherkin]

Yeah, I mean I'm not trying to come across as though I'm yawning watching him play. I'm responding to the general notion that now we can start discussing him in the elite all-time offensive context when that's been true for a while.

Yeah, these 17 games are not what have catapulted him into that discussion. We've been watching for maybe 3 years of him moving in this direction as a 3pt shooter, then he went berserk last year and that was much more of an exultant "I'm here" statement than what he's doing now.

S'all good, though: we're talking about him now. He's getting some of the respect he'd earned earlier and is continuing to earn... but he's also doing stuff so intensely unexpected right now that EVERYONE is being compelled to take more notice.

[Johnny Firpo]

I was kind of late to the party when it comes to Curry, but then again I do think he was a late bloomer. While he was always a great three point shooter, his true jump to the next level happened before the 2013/2014 season. That was when the MVP-candidate started to show himself, then he raised that level last year and it looks like he could do it again.

[Doctor MJ]

The question is... will other follow? Will there be other players like Steph? Taking 12 threes a game, and making 45% of them?

I think it's really telling to look at the relationship between the SSOL Suns and current Warriors along with Nash & Curry.

Obviously when the Warriors won, you had an assistant coach saying the Suns were right all along so the connection is clear.

There's also the matter that both stars were dismissed for their physical appearance, had to play at nothing college programs, and took several years to really find their niche in the NBA because it required a coach to let a new star niche exist.

And then there's the matter that Nash had similar abilities to Curry. Curry's a better shooter and more agile, Nash is the better playmaker, but still, pretty damn similar except that Nash never got to the point where he scored regularly at volume. And this is interesting because that was the question I had about Nash even as I said he should be seen as an offensive GOAT candidate: As good as his decision making looked, what would happen if he truly committed to shooting more?

At this point I think the reality is that had Nash had Curry's model to follow, he'd have focused more on quick-shooting and he'd have been even better.

Now, that might all seem like wish fulfillment from a Nash fan but circle back to the earlier part of my post: NEITHER of these guys got seriously recruited. When you have a situation where players of a certain mold are revolutionizing the game AND there's a historical tendency not even for them to get into the pros, I think the real answer to "Where are the others like Curry?" is "They exist, it's just that no one seriously looked for them before to the degree they are going to start now."

It's possible that decades from now Curry will still be the outlier of outliers on this front, but we're definitely going to have more guys successfully following his paradigm.

[The-Power]

Yesterday, it was fascinating to see the different modes he can apparently effortlessly switch into at will. The team struggled in the 1st quarter and with 3 minutes left and down by 6 he decided to take over. In 2:30 minutes he scored 12 points while aggressively looking for his shot (hit 6 FTs to his 2 3's).

When he came back into the game his team had the lead and he did not look for his shot anymore. He tried to score only two more times in the 2nd and 3rd quarter combined (drew the shooting foul once and missed a 3). One time he broke down the defense and could have gone for the easy layup but decided to pass to the corner to an open Rush who made two 3's prior to that in the quarter. The rest of the game he tried to find Klay or, which happened even more often, let Dray initiate the offense. He ended up being 4/7 from the field and 8/8 from the line for 19 points in only three quarters again (third time in a row I believe).

This speaks volumes of what kind of player he is. At any time willing to completely take over the game when he feels like the team needs his scoring but also absolutely willing to defer to the team when it is rolling, other guys are shooting well or some players must get into a rhythm. It was really easy to see his different mindset in the 1st quarter when the team struggled and the 2nd and 3rd quarter where the Kings were blown away.

And no sloppy turnovers tonight, probably the biggest surprise.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Yesterday, it was fascinating to see the different modes he can apparently effortlessly switch into at will. The team struggled in the 1st quarter and with 3 minutes left and down by 6 he decided to take over. In 2:30 minutes he scored 12 points while aggressively looking for his shot (hit 6 FTs to his 2 3's).

When he came back into the game his team had the lead and he did not look for his shot anymore. He tried to score only two more times in the 2nd and 3rd quarter combined (drew the shooting foul once and missed a 3). One time he broke down the defense and could have gone for the easy layup but decided to pass to the corner to an open Rush who made two 3's prior to that in the quarter. The rest of the game he tried to find Klay or, which happened even more often, let Dray initiate the offense. He ended up being 4/7 from the field and 8/8 from the line for 19 points in only three quarters again (third time in a row I believe).

This speaks volumes of what kind of player he is. At any time willing to completely take over the game when he feels like the team needs his scoring but also absolutely willing to defer to the team when it is rolling, other guys are shooting well or some players must get into a rhythm. It was really easy to see his different mindset in the 1st quarter when the team struggled and the 2nd and 3rd quarter where the Kings were blown away.

And no sloppy turnovers tonight, probably the biggest surprise.

Would you say this is curry's peak? or can he better it next year? I remember there was a trend in shooters that they peaked at a certain age, but I cant remember if it was 27-28-29.

I know players in general peak around 28. But I mean, what can curry improve on at this point, other than turnovers?

also, am I the only person that feels that, for a guard, and for his height, he is an underrated rebounder?

I know rebounding isnt a big deal for pgs, but he is 3rd out of all point guards in that regard. pace plays a factor, but he only plays 34 minutes a game.

[The-Power]

Would you say this is curry's peak? or can he better it next year? I remember there was a trend in shooters that they peaked at a certain age, but I cant remember if it was 27-28-29.

I know players in general peak around 28. But I mean, what can curry improve on at this point, other than turnovers?

also, am I the only person that feels that, for a guard, and for his height, he is an underrated rebounder?

I know rebounding isnt a big deal for pgs, but he is 3rd out of all point guards in that regard. pace plays a factor, but he only plays 34 minutes a game.

Well, it might be his peak but I do believe he has another leap in him. But we have to keep in mind that this would probably be a leap in terms of skills, not in box score production. Maybe he can reduce his turnovers, maybe his assist numbers increase again at one point - but overall we cannot expect better raw box score production, and the same holds true for shooting efficiency. His scoring + efficiency is likely to come down to earth a little bit either way so when I say we cannot expect better raw production I am referring to his current numbers.

That said, there is no reason to believe that he has already reached his peak-level. I mean, look at what he did after an MVP season. He improved his ball handling, he improved his shooting in that he is now more comfortable pulling the trigger even from further away, he looks half a step faster and his on-ball defense bothers opponents even more (though I feel like his off-ball defense can be a little careless at times because he tries to help too often in unnecessary situations for my liking). At the beginning of the season it looked like he kept his lazy passes in check but he reverted back to his old self as of late.

So I don't know why he could not improve his handles even further, picking his spots even better and I would even expect that he grows more comfortable with how defenses defend him with every season at least until his physical decline. He's this kind of hard-working player with high expectations for himself and the drive to be an ATG. The turnovers leave the most room for improvement. We should not expect him to be a low turnover guy because it's not going to happen. His game is too risky (but the reward justifies it) and defenses defend him to like no PG before, putting a lot of pressure on him and the reward - the 4-on-3 situations in particular - goes hand in hand with occasional turnovers. But cutting down the turnovers via avoiding sloppy passes and growing awareness regarding defensive pressure seems like a reasonable goal.

So while this year might go down as his peak-season I don't necessarily believe he's at his peak as a player. He should be close, though. I wouldn't expect to see a completely different animal the next few seasons.

[E-Balla]

The question is... will other follow? Will there be other players like Steph? Taking 12 threes a game, and making 45% of them?

I think it's really telling to look at the relationship between the SSOL Suns and current Warriors along with Nash & Curry.

Obviously when the Warriors won, you had an assistant coach saying the Suns were right all along so the connection is clear.

There's also the matter that both stars were dismissed for their physical appearance, had to play at nothing college programs, and took several years to really find their niche in the NBA because it required a coach to let a new star niche exist.

And then there's the matter that Nash had similar abilities to Curry. Curry's a better shooter and more agile, Nash is the better playmaker, but still, pretty damn similar except that Nash never got to the point where he scored regularly at volume. And this is interesting because that was the question I had about Nash even as I said he should be seen as an offensive GOAT candidate: As good as his decision making looked, what would happen if he truly committed to shooting more?

At this point I think the reality is that had Nash had Curry's model to follow, he'd have focused more on quick-shooting and he'd have been even better.

Now, that might all seem like wish fulfillment from a Nash fan but circle back to the earlier part of my post: NEITHER of these guys got seriously recruited. When you have a situation where players of a certain mold are revolutionizing the game AND there's a historical tendency not even for them to get into the pros, I think the real answer to "Where are the others like Curry?" is "They exist, it's just that no one seriously looked for them before to the degree they are going to start now."

It's possible that decades from now Curry will still be the outlier of outliers on this front, but we're definitely going to have more guys successfully following his paradigm.

Yes I think this is the crazy part of it all. I remember what people (including me) thought of Curry and what they said in major scouting reports and outside of his ability to finish (which he greatly improved) the reports are completely accurate. Still many had Curry as a good role player and not a star (about 50/50). The major difference I see is only in his 3 point shooting - no one imagined it could be this good. I mean many said he had GOAT shooter potential but no one seemed to realize exactly what that meant. The Abdul-Rauf's of the world are now going to be held to the Curry standard in the scouting process and they'll probably be allowed to develop as primarily on ball 3 point shooters thanks to Curry breaking the scale.

[The-Power]

By the way, here is the play for Rush where Curry passes up an open layup.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKLoBZazKoM&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]
(Credit for the video: @Apricot)

And I like the way @Apricot on GSOM put it: "It's a questionable basketball play, but it's a wonderful basketball-team play."

[SideshowBob]

19-0 down. 54-9 remaining for the record.

[The-Power]

How the Jazz defended the Warriors when the game was on the line:

Spoiler:

That's insane.

[Texas Chuck]

Maybe insane, but they came about as close as anyone to figuring it out. I do think the best move is to attempt to force Draymond to be a shooter and not a distributor and they did a really good job of that.

[tsherkin]

"Ho hum: three quiet quarters. Oh, wait, FOURTH quarter, did you say? EAT IT!!!!"

- rough summary of Warriors/Jazz in Steph's head

[The-Power]

Maybe insane, but they came about as close as anyone to figuring it out. I do think the best move is to attempt to force Draymond to be a shooter and not a distributor and they did a really good job of that.

No doubt, the Jazz did a good job on Curry and Green was not at his best this game. That said, Curry also missed some layups he usually makes with ease, including two fast break layups. They overplayed him at the 3pt-line at times, which is nothing unusual, but he did not punish them like we're used to.

But my 'insane' referred to the plays I uploaded. Close game and look at what happened, I'll break it down.

1st play: This is two plays before the first screenshot I made and it is vital to look at it in order to understand the following sequences. Maybe it did not change the way the Jazz defended but I'm sure it was in their mind when they doubled him hard. The Warriors were down by 3 points and the Jazz miss a shot. Curry grabs the long rebound, runs the floor and hits a pull-up 3 in the face of Burks with 19 seconds left on the shotclock. And teams knew how this could end for them then.

2nd play: This is one play before the first screenshot. It's basically another testament to Curry's gravity I simply forgot to add. The Warriors run the high HORN which they like to run in closer games. It seeks to give Curry a 3pt-shot from a few feet behind the 3pt-line. This time the Jazz defended it well and doubled Curry close to the sideline. Curry passes it to Draymond who drives straight to the basket and kicks it out to the corner for an open Livingston corner-3 whose defender (Hayward) had to avoid a layup by Green. Even though he worked on his range this is a shot you would want to give up - unfortunately for the Jazz he made it. But I doubt they defended Curry how they defended him because they knew on the other side of the corner was Livingston. Here a couple of screenshots:

Spoiler:

3rd play: The play of the first screenshot. The Jazz doubled Curry far away from the 3pt-line after he called for a screen from Green who sets a soft one. It was probably not even meant to get Curry a good look but rather just to create the double team which one can also guess from the directions Curry heads to; he never even tried to look for an opportunity to score. Curry passes the ball to Green, Livingstons defender in the corner rotates over to Green, Livingston cuts towards the basket and receives the pass. The paint started to be crowded again but he was close enough to the rim to get off a high percentage short jumper. In the corner the Jazz left Klay open after his defender came to help in the paint against Ezeli. The pass was possible, so that would have been another option for a good look. See:

Spoiler:

4th play: The play of the second screenshot. This time Curry receives a screen from Ezeli and Curry gets some separation from Burks who is one step behind Curry. Gobert does the right thing and comes out to prevent Curry from pulling up. Meanwhile his assignment, Festus Ezeli, cuts to the basket and receives the awesome lob from Curry (should be in the highlights from the game, I assume) for an open lay-up/dunk. Favors got caught ball-watching and misses to pick up Ezeli, so there's defnitely a mistake. Either he simply misses his rotation or he feared that Curry might drive past Gobert and tried to establish position to help in this case (and misses Ezeli's cut for that reason). See:

Spoiler:

5th play: The play of the third screenshot. This time Green sets a screen for Curry on the left side, not too far away from the sideline. Favors sees the oppurtinity to double him there and so him and Burks doubled him hard again. Curry goes behind the back for a short pass to the awaiting Green. He takes one dribble. Gobert still lurks in the paint and does not step out to guard Green. He throws the lob the Ezeli anyway but mistimed it so Ezeli could not finish it. Green should have taken one more dribble so he would have been able to a) use the floater in case Gobert still does not react or b) throw the lob then, but with more accuracy. Still, this is a good opportunity to score.

Spoiler:

So, what do we see here? It starts with a pull-up 3 and then every play was centered around Curry's gravity. The following plays were an open 3pt-shot (made), a short turnaround-jumper (made), an open dunk (made) and an alley-oop attempt (missed). Five plays for 10 points because of Curry's shooting-threat when the game was on the line! So yes, the Jazz did a good job but when it mattered the Warriors could produce great looks on five straight possessions and that was by using the Jazz' good defense against Curry to their advantage. To me this span was amazing to see and was basically a prime example of how Curry's gravity works. As good as the Jazz defended, they did not find a solution to stop the Warriors from effectively using Curry's gravity when it mattered.

By the way, I have to re-watch it but when Clark made three (straight or almost straight) 3's from the corner, the plays all started with Curry accepting a screen from Green and passing the ball to him as soon as the Jazz doubled him, if I recall correctly.

[sixerswillrule]

5th in the entire league in 2P% (1st among non-bigs), minimum 100 attempts. Also getting it done inside the arc, to say the least.

[SideshowBob]

GSW has now won 23 straight. They're 35-2 in their last 37 RS games, and 42-3 in their last 45 RS games. Over 1.23 seasons, they're now 86-15 overall (.851, 70 W pace), and have sustained a +10.65 SRS.

[Nbafanatic]

Draymond has to start shooting that mid range jump shot out of the 4 on 3 situation to keep defenses honest. Especially the lob pass to Bogut or Ezeli is starting to get a little predictable. The Jazz show that a lot on this game.