Official Trade Thread - Part XXIX

[dckingsfan]

Beal, Gortat, and a 1st for Cousins.

Can't think of too many other trades I'd make besides that involving him though. You're not recruiting any good free agents with just Wall, and Beals a perfect fit next to KD and John if we can get him here.

Brad will be overpaid--but that's the nature of the business now.

Toss in Oubre and it is still a good trade.

[nate33]

Would you guys trade Beal for Jae Crowder+Avery Bradley?

Yes.

That is mind boggling to an outsider (not Jae + Avery for Beal, but that you'd even consider moving Beal and it's not just you that says it), but you must have some reasoning?
Main reasons you think he's overrated and will be overpaid?
I only watch compressed versions of most Wizards games and he looks like he's improved a lot and has plenty more room to grow.

Look at his numbers for his career:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01.html

There essentially has been no improvement whatsoever in his 4 years as a pro. None. His reputation far exceeds his impact. I'm not saying he sucks. He's a legit starting shooting guard. But he's no star and I don't want to get stuck paying him a max salary.

I'll add that, you are right, he looks better every year. He seems to add an extra dimension, whether it's ball-handling or running the pick-and-roll. But the improvements just don't seem to matter. Whatever he does, he does it with inconsistency and mediocre efficiency because he's just not THAT good of a shooter and he doesn't know how to draw fouls.

[dckingsfan]

This is the kind of knee jerk trade talk post that comes back to haunt you.

Because you think he will break out?

Absolutely.

Got it - I have switched camps this season. I think he will improve but not to the level of a max contract which he will expect.

[Ruzious]

Surprised to see all the Beal hate. Seems like an efficient scorer with lot's more potential at 22 years old.
As a Celtics fan we used to loathe Avery Bradley at 22 years old. Beal's still 4 or 5 years away from his prime.
What are his major flaws?
Would you guys trade Beal for Jae Crowder+Avery Bradley?

No, but I would trade Beal for Bradley and the 2016 Brooklyn 1st that Boston owns - in a heartbeat.

[Dark Faze]

ew...crowder and bradley? no....just no.

Beals not worth the max during the regular season--but his youth and how he's always elevated his game in the post season more than justifies his pricetag in this market.

Like I said--give me a young all-star or bust for him.

What do you guys think about Porter and a top 10 protected 1st for Noel? With Oubre in the wings and our eyes set on Durant--he might be the one piece we have thats likeliest to tank in value for us. Nerlens' value for Philly seems to be dropping, as he's regressed playing PF--and he's below Okafor and a healthy Embiid in the race for starting center.

As well Philly has Saric coming next year and there are a number of PF's available in this draft--including Ben Simmons.

Wall/Satoransky
Brad/
Oubre/?
KD/Hump
Noel/Gortat

[dckingsfan]

I guess it'd depend on the nature of the pick we'd have to trade, but if I were the Wizards GM, I would probably pull the trigger on the deal.

I'm a fan of Sullinger.

Sullinger would be a nice pick-up, but I don't think we have the assets to get him.

I'd give up a first round pick for him. If the Celtics said that wasn't enough, then I'd offer for Olynyk. Again, if they say no, then I'd force them to match on Sullinger this summer.

Sullinger is clearly better than any PF we have. Having said that - we are probably lottery bound. I don't think you give up a lottery pick for Sullinger.

It is interesting that the Cs seem to have 7 PFs on their squad. Sullinger, Olynyk, Zeller, Johnson, Lee, Jerebko & Mickey. Guess you could argue about Zeller. Zeller, Sullinger and Lee are FAs. And they have 4 draft picks. Guess they have some choices to make...

[stevemcqueen1]

It's not knee jerk though. I've been critical of Beal at times, but I've never called for him to be traded. Now I am. 3.2 seasons is enough. There is still no improvement whatsoever. He's just not very good.

I'd happily keep him if he had the reputation of being "just a guy" like a Jodie Meeks or Jeremy Lamb. Then we could retain him at a modest salary. The problem is that has a rep of being some kind of budding star who deserves the max. But he's not even close. He's an average starter... if that.

He was playing like an All Star before he hurt his shoulder. Now he's struggling to find his range after coming back from that. This isn't unprecedented. I think it's a pretty good bet he's going to start hitting his threes again. And when that happens and he's back to playing like an AS, your hitting the panic button and wanting to trade Beal for a late lotto pick is going to look pretty bad.

He played a whopping 6 games before the shoulder injury. And he wasn't THAT good. His ORtg was 103 and his DRtg was 110. Basically, he had a hot streak from 3-point range, shooting an unsustainable 47%, which was offset by his horrific turnover rate. Overall, he was pretty much the same guy, but at a higher usage rate.

And let's not act like the injury was a fluke. He gets hurt a lot. It comes with the package. You don't want to get stuck paying that guy $20M.

Beal was definitely better this season before he got hurt, and it wasn't because of his three ball. He was and is still slashing and scoring on multiple defenders off the dribble. That is a big indication of growth. When he gets back to hitting the three at 40% instead of like 10%, he'll be scoring over 20 PPG again and leading the team as the first option.

You don't decide whether or not to keep a budding foundation player like Beal based upon whether or not you're afraid he'll get hurt in the future. It's unknowable. Steph Curry was injury prone throughout his first contract. On the flip side, Kevin Durant led the NBA in minutes played until the final two years of his second contract, when it seems like he's been constantly battling some kind of injury. You have to make a decision about whether or not to build with a guy as a core piece based on the things you can predict/assess--his skills, his personality, where he can grow as a player, his organizational fit, etc.

[Dark Faze]

nice post steve

[stevemcqueen1]

Because you think he will break out?

Absolutely.

Got it - I have switched camps this season. I think he will improve but not to the level of a max contract which he will expect.

I don't think we have to worry about what Beal expects. The market is going to determine Beal's value and he'll be an RFA. All we have to do is match any offer he receives. If he doesn't have a good season, his market won't be hot. If he does, then we can afford to match.

If we were severely cash strapped, I'd worry. But we're fine. We have more than enough money to keep him and pursue high level free agents. That's why I don't understand all of this desire to trade him over money.

[tontoz]

This is the kind of knee jerk trade talk post that comes back to haunt you.

It's not knee jerk though. I've been critical of Beal at times, but I've never called for him to be traded. Now I am. 3.2 seasons is enough. There is still no improvement whatsoever. He's just not very good.

I'd happily keep him if he had the reputation of being "just a guy" like a Jodie Meeks or Jeremy Lamb. Then we could retain him at a modest salary. The problem is that has a rep of being some kind of budding star who deserves the max. But he's not even close. He's an average starter... if that.

He was playing like an All Star before he hurt his shoulder. Now he's struggling to find his range after coming back from that. This isn't unprecedented. I think it's a pretty good bet he's going to start hitting his threes again. And when that happens and he's back to playing like an AS, your hitting the panic button and wanting to trade Beal for a late lotto pick is going to look pretty bad.

Beal had an ORTG of 102 before the injury. He wasn't getting to the basket or the foul line any more than usual, he was just hitting jumpers at a higher rate than normal which is unlikely to be sustained.

[nate33]

ew...crowder and bradley? no....just no.

Beals not worth the max during the regular season--but his youth and how he's always elevated his game in the post season more than justifies his pricetag in this market.

Like I said--give me a young all-star or bust for him.

Avery is significantly outplaying Beal, and he does it while playing elite defense. He's locked into a contract that pays him about $8.5M a year for the next 3 years (counting this one). Oh, and Jae Crowder is also a real good player who is locked into a dirt cheap deal for a long long time ($7M a year for 5 years).

If you follow up that Celtics deal by swapping Porter for Noel, then you'd have reset the table nicely:

Wall
Bradley
Oubre
Crowder
Noel

[Ruzious]

ew...crowder and bradley? no....just no.

Beals not worth the max during the regular season--but his youth and how he's always elevated his game in the post season more than justifies his pricetag in this market.

Like I said--give me a young all-star or bust for him.

What do you guys think about Porter and a top 10 protected 1st for Noel? With Oubre in the wings and our eyes set on Durant--he might be the one piece we have thats likeliest to tank in value for us. Nerlens' value for Philly seems to be dropping, as he's regressed playing PF--and he's below Okafor and a healthy Embiid in the race for starting center.

As well Philly has Saric coming next year and there are a number of PF's available in this draft--including Ben Simmons.

Wall/Satoransky
Brad/
Oubre/?
KD/Hump
Noel/Gortat

Some folks here are under-rating Avery Bradley. He has a chance to be an all-star. He's always been an outstanding defender, and this season - he's showing he he can be a one of the better volume 3 point shooters in the game.

[stevemcqueen1]

Sullinger would be a nice pick-up, but I don't think we have the assets to get him.

I'd give up a first round pick for him. If the Celtics said that wasn't enough, then I'd offer for Olynyk. Again, if they say no, then I'd force them to match on Sullinger this summer.

Sullinger is clearly better than any PF we have. Having said that - we are probably lottery bound. I don't think you give up a lottery pick for Sullinger.

It is interesting that the Cs seem to have 7 PFs on their squad. Sullinger, Olynyk, Zeller, Johnson, Lee, Jerebko & Mickey. Guess you could argue about Zeller. Zeller, Sullinger and Lee are FAs. And they have 4 draft picks. Guess they have some choices to make...

We're two games under .500 sixteen games into the season. How can you assume we're lottery bound after that? As poorly as this team has played over the first month, they could win two games and be fine.

There is a lot of season left.

[AFM]

ew...crowder and bradley? no....just no.

Beals not worth the max during the regular season--but his youth and how he's always elevated his game in the post season more than justifies his pricetag in this market.

Like I said--give me a young all-star or bust for him.

Avery is significantly outplaying Beal, and he does it while playing elite defense. He's locked into a contract that pays him about $8.5M a year for the next 3 years (counting this one). Oh, and Jae Crowder is also a real good player who is locked into a dirt cheap deal for a long long time ($7M a year for 5 years).

If you follow up that Celtics deal by swapping Porter for Noel, then you'd have reset the table nicely:

Wall
Bradley
Oubre
Crowder
Noel

I agree that Avery is a better player than Beal. But we could get way more for Brad due to his reputation.

[nate33]

What do you guys think about Porter and a top 10 protected 1st for Noel? With Oubre in the wings and our eyes set on Durant--he might be the one piece we have thats likeliest to tank in value for us. Nerlens' value for Philly seems to be dropping, as he's regressed playing PF--and he's below Okafor and a healthy Embiid in the race for starting center.

I think this is something worth considering. I'm not sure if we'd need to add that protected 1st. Porter was picked higher than Noel, and he's done just as well.

It might make more sense to line it up as an option, then execute the trade if we add Durant. Do the Beal for Bradley/Crowder trade and next year, we could roll with:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Bradley/Oubre
SF Durant/Oubre
PF Terrence Jones?/Crowder
C Noel/Gortat

[nate33]

I agree that Avery is a better player than Beal. But we could get way more for Brad due to his reputation.

I'm not convinced we can, given his impending salary situation. And also factor that those incoming players have excellent, long term contracts. That's going to make a big difference because the cap jumps AGAIN in 2017. We could potentially add Durant this summer and another max contract next summer since we'd have so much roster depth locked in on good deals.

[dckingsfan]

Absolutely.

Got it - I have switched camps this season. I think he will improve but not to the level of a max contract which he will expect.

I don't think we have to worry about what Beal expects. The market is going to determine Beal's value and he'll be an RFA. All we have to do is match any offer he receives. If he doesn't have a good season, his market won't be hot. If he does, then we can afford to match.

If we were severely cash strapped, I'd worry. But we're fine. We have more than enough money to keep him and pursue high level free agents. That's why I don't understand all of this desire to trade him over money.

It's always about the money. Or rather value against payroll.

[stevemcqueen1]

What do you guys think about Porter and a top 10 protected 1st for Noel? With Oubre in the wings and our eyes set on Durant--he might be the one piece we have thats likeliest to tank in value for us. Nerlens' value for Philly seems to be dropping, as he's regressed playing PF--and he's below Okafor and a healthy Embiid in the race for starting center.

As well Philly has Saric coming next year and there are a number of PF's available in this draft--including Ben Simmons.

Wall/Satoransky
Brad/
Oubre/?
KD/Hump
Noel/Gortat

I'd do it for just the lottery protected first. Porter is a better player than Noel at this point, more valuable to us than Noel would be.

Also I doubt Oubre would be ready to start next season. And Noel wouldn't start over Gortat. I think we'd be worse in the short and long term and out a draft pick for our trouble.

If we didn't have Gortat signed long term, it'd be more of a value. But Noel is a C only player.

[Ruzious]

Beal was definitely better this season before he got hurt, and it wasn't because of his three ball. He was and is still slashing and scoring on multiple defenders off the dribble. That is a big indication of growth. When he gets back to hitting the three at 40% instead of like 10%, he'll be scoring over 20 PPG again and leading the team as the first option.

You don't decide whether or not to keep a budding foundation player like Beal based upon whether or not you're afraid he'll get hurt in the future. It's unknowable. Steph Curry was injury prone throughout his first contract. On the flip side, Kevin Durant led the NBA in minutes played until the final two years of his second contract, when it seems like he's been constantly battling some kind of injury. You have to make a decision about whether or not to build with a guy as a core piece based on the things you can predict/assess--his skills, his personality, where he can grow as a player, his organizational fit, etc.

You keep using this injury as an excuse, but he had a total of 4 free throw attempts before the injury - so this so-called slashing was most likely something you saw because you wanted to see it and expected to see it. Unless you know something more than anyone else does, his shoulder is fine, and he's missing shots that any decent shooting guard should make.

[payitforward]

Unfortunately, probably the best time to trade him has already passed, but it's not too late to build his trade value back up. The chances of him being worth the contract he'll likely get are minimal - as I've said all along.

Uh oh... a "Hands" moment from Ruz!!