Official Trade Thread - Part XXIX

[Ruzious]

Unfortunately, probably the best time to trade him has already passed, but it's not too late to build his trade value back up. The chances of him being worth the contract he'll likely get are minimal - as I've said all along.

Uh oh... a "Hands" moment from Ruz!!

Pardons, but I thought a pre-emptive strike like that was needed because of the responses right before that post - search "emotional reaction".

[payitforward]

Surprised to see all the Beal hate. Seems like an efficient scorer with lot's more potential at 22 years old.
As a Celtics fan we used to loathe Avery Bradley at 22 years old. Beal's still 4 or 5 years away from his prime.
What are his major flaws?
Would you guys trade Beal for Jae Crowder+Avery Bradley?

The "hate" comes from him having been picked 3d in the draft -- a couple of days before he turned 19! And from the tremendous expectations for him.

As you point out, he's only 22. The problem is that we'll be forced to pay him based on "potential".

No thanks on that trade, but I love Crowder: a bunch of us here wanted him in 2012. The resident genius picked Satoransky instead, whom we've yet to see.

[payitforward]

Unfortunately, probably the best time to trade him has already passed, but it's not too late to build his trade value back up. The chances of him being worth the contract he'll likely get are minimal - as I've said all along.

Uh oh... a "Hands" moment from Ruz!!

Pardons, but I thought a pre-emptive strike like that was needed because of the responses right before that post - search "emotional reaction".

Well, I was just ribbing you, as I thought was obvious.

No question that Beal presents a problem for the franchise. There's still plenty of time for him to develop into a tremendous player -- there are rookies this year older than Brad -- but... that doesn't mean he will!

[Illmatic12]

I would only trade Beal in a package for an high level PF/C .. and no not some glorified garbage man like Nerlens Noel (I wouldn't trade Otto for Noel straight up)

I mean as part of a Cousins package, or someone near that level. You don't trade away a young foundational piece with high upside/value around the league , for relative scraps.

Anything else would be silly

[Illmatic12]

ew...crowder and bradley? no....just no.

Beals not worth the max during the regular season--but his youth and how he's always elevated his game in the post season more than justifies his pricetag in this market.

Like I said--give me a young all-star or bust for him.

Avery is significantly outplaying Beal, and he does it while playing elite defense. He's locked into a contract that pays him about $8.5M a year for the next 3 years (counting this one). Oh, and Jae Crowder is also a real good player who is locked into a dirt cheap deal for a long long time ($7M a year for 5 years).

If you follow up that Celtics deal by swapping Porter for Noel, then you'd have reset the table nicely:

Wall
Bradley
Oubre
Crowder
Noel

No offense to your idea, but that team would be mediocre with a low ceiling, and Wall would immediately leave in 2017 free agency, leaving us at square 1.

We'd be asking John to be our #1 scoring option/shot creator, which he's never excelled at on an elite level. Furthermore, he's also required to create for four other guys who can't get their own offense. That would be a good team around Lebron James, not John Wall.

[nate33]

ew...crowder and bradley? no....just no.

Beals not worth the max during the regular season--but his youth and how he's always elevated his game in the post season more than justifies his pricetag in this market.

Like I said--give me a young all-star or bust for him.

Avery is significantly outplaying Beal, and he does it while playing elite defense. He's locked into a contract that pays him about $8.5M a year for the next 3 years (counting this one). Oh, and Jae Crowder is also a real good player who is locked into a dirt cheap deal for a long long time ($7M a year for 5 years).

If you follow up that Celtics deal by swapping Porter for Noel, then you'd have reset the table nicely:

Wall
Bradley
Oubre
Crowder
Noel

No offense to your idea, but that team would be mediocre with a low ceiling, and Wall would immediately leave in 2017 free agency, leaving us at square 1.

We'd be asking John to be our #1 scoring option/shot creator, which he's never excelled at on an elite level. Furthermore, he's also required to create for four other guys who can't get their own offense. That would be a good team around Lebron James, not John Wall.

Those 5 players are just the youngish players already locked under contract. We would still have Gortat and max cap room in the summer. Ideally, we still get Durant. (Wall is the allure for Durant, not Beal.) We'd have a bit more cap room for Terrence Jones as well:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Bradley/Oubre
SF Durant/Oubre
PF Jones/Crowder
C Noel/Gortat

And without Beal's cap-killing contract, there would be near max money again in 2017.

[pcbothwel]

Nate,

I see you are comparing Beal and Bradley off of this year, but if you look at Bradley at age 21-23 you'd see a player nowhere near a good as Beal.

If you look at the numbers Avery Bradley had in his previous 3 years you see the following improvements so far in this short season:
eFG: 48% to 56%
ORTG: 97 to 109
DRTG: 107 to 101
PER: 11.2 to 17.1
TS: 49.9% to 57.4%
WS/48: 0.039 to 0.145

This season is way too small of a sample size to assume those are long term improvements. If Beal improved the same amount he would be:
eFG: 58%
ORTG: 112
DRTG: 101
PER: 22
TS: 62%
WS/48: 0.17

That's basically the best version of Ray Allen (25 y/o) we ever saw...

Again, I take those improvements from Avery in stride.

[tontoz]

Nate,

I see you are comparing Beal and Bradley off of this year, but if you look at Bradley at age 21-23 you'd see a player nowhere near a good as Beal.

If you look at the numbers Avery Bradley had in his previous 3 years you see the following improvements so far in this short season:
eFG: 48% to 56%
ORTG: 97 to 109
DRTG: 107 to 101
PER: 11.2 to 17.1
TS: 49.9% to 57.4%
WS/48: 0.039 to 0.145

This season is way too small of a sample size to assume those are long term improvements. If Beal improved the same amount he would be:
eFG: 58%
ORTG: 112
DRTG: 101
PER: 22
TS: 62%
WS/48: 0.17

That's basically the best version of Ray Allen (25 y/o) we ever saw...

Again, I take those improvements from Avery in stride.

Beal hasn't improved at all. What makes you think he will suddenly improve after signing a huge deal?

Beal's situation is different from many other young players. he never had to earn his minutes. He was gifted big minutes from the day he got here and has had plenty of touches from day one. Other young guys have to actually earn their time and opportunities. You have to take that into account when comparing players.

[nate33]

Fair enough. Avery Bradley is almost surely playing over his head right now. But even the Avery Bradley of the last 3 years is comparable to Beal. And Avery plays better D and costs $8M a year.

Also, I think a fairer way to look at it is to use Avery's last 2 seasons, (which were his 4th and 5th years) to compare to what we reasonably expect Beal to be this year and next year.

In his last 2 seasons, Avery looks a bit better:

ORtg 99
TS% .508
PER 12.0
WS/48 .048

That compares pretty well to Beal's perennial ORtg of 102, TS% of .520, PER of 14 and WS/48 .80 once you factor defense and contract.

[Dark Faze]

why aren't we taking post season into account?

I know the regular season is important--but a guys ability to pick it up when it matters most is really important

[dckingsfan]

I would only trade Beal in a package for an high level PF/C .. and no not some glorified garbage man like Nerlens Noel (I wouldn't trade Otto for Noel straight up)

I mean as part of a Cousins package, or someone near that level. You don't trade away a young foundational piece with high upside/value around the league , for relative scraps.

Anything else would be silly

I like the Beal/Gortat/1st for Cousins idea. Might be silly to think that would work. I would think Boston would toss out the 4 first rounders for Cousins.

[payitforward]

Fair enough. Avery Bradley is almost surely playing over his head right now. But even the Avery Bradley of the last 3 years is comparable to Beal. And Avery plays better D and costs $8M a year.

Also, I think a fairer way to look at it is to use Avery's last 2 seasons, (which were his 4th and 5th years) to compare to what we reasonably expect Beal to be this year and next year.

In his last 2 seasons, Avery looks a bit better:

ORtg 99
TS% .508
PER 12.0
WS/48 .048

That compares pretty well to Beal's perennial ORtg of 102, TS% of .520, PER of 14 and WS/48 .80 once you factor defense and contract.

If Avery Bradley's current level of play were to continue throughout his prime, he'd be a tremendous player. If you could project that, why ever would you trade him? You wouldn't. You don't trade away bargain players who are waaay productive.

But projecting that is just placing one more bet against the odds. And, no, the Avery Bradley of the last 3 seasons is *not* comparable to Beal. That Avery Bradley isn't nearly as good as Beal, and he was older than Beal in every one of those 3 seasons too.

As to Crowder, I'd love to have him -- and we could have had him. Unfortunately our blind squirrel failed to get that nut. The way you get a guy like Crowder is *before* he's worth a lot in a trade: either you draft him, or you pick him up after his R2-style short rookie contract is over.

[nate33]

Fair enough. Avery Bradley is almost surely playing over his head right now. But even the Avery Bradley of the last 3 years is comparable to Beal. And Avery plays better D and costs $8M a year.

Also, I think a fairer way to look at it is to use Avery's last 2 seasons, (which were his 4th and 5th years) to compare to what we reasonably expect Beal to be this year and next year.

In his last 2 seasons, Avery looks a bit better:

ORtg 99
TS% .508
PER 12.0
WS/48 .048

That compares pretty well to Beal's perennial ORtg of 102, TS% of .520, PER of 14 and WS/48 .80 once you factor defense and contract.

If Avery Bradley's current level of play were to continue throughout his prime, he'd be a tremendous player. If you could project that, why ever would you trade him? You wouldn't. You don't trade away bargain players who are waaay productive.

But projecting that is just placing one more bet against the odds. And, no, the Avery Bradley of the last 3 seasons is *not* comparable to Beal. That Avery Bradley isn't nearly as good as Beal, and he was older than Beal in every one of those 3 seasons too.

As to Crowder, I'd love to have him -- and we could have had him. Unfortunately our blind squirrel failed to get that nut. The way you get a guy like Crowder is *before* he's worth a lot in a trade: either you draft him, or you pick him up after his R2-style short rookie contract is over.

By your logic, no trades would ever get made because if both sides accurately value their assets, no deal would please both parties.

The whole idea of trading Beal is based on the notion that his trade value exceeds his actual on-the-court value. Given the general vibe I get from the media and from fan bases, I think this is likely the case with Beal.

I agree that the Celtics wouldn't trade the Avery Bradley of the last 15 games, but I'm assuming they truly value him as a guy somewhere better than his track record of 2013 and 2014, but below his 15-game track record of 2015.

[Ruzious]

Crowder probably would have been a better pick than Satoransky, but I'm fine with Sato. Sato looks likely to be better than a lot of players picked before him. That's one pick I think EG did well on.

[payitforward]

Fair enough. Avery Bradley is almost surely playing over his head right now. But even the Avery Bradley of the last 3 years is comparable to Beal. And Avery plays better D and costs $8M a year.

Also, I think a fairer way to look at it is to use Avery's last 2 seasons, (which were his 4th and 5th years) to compare to what we reasonably expect Beal to be this year and next year.

In his last 2 seasons, Avery looks a bit better:

ORtg 99
TS% .508
PER 12.0
WS/48 .048

That compares pretty well to Beal's perennial ORtg of 102, TS% of .520, PER of 14 and WS/48 .80 once you factor defense and contract.

If Avery Bradley's current level of play were to continue throughout his prime, he'd be a tremendous player. If you could project that, why ever would you trade him? You wouldn't. You don't trade away bargain players who are waaay productive.

But projecting that is just placing one more bet against the odds. And, no, the Avery Bradley of the last 3 seasons is *not* comparable to Beal. That Avery Bradley isn't nearly as good as Beal, and he was older than Beal in every one of those 3 seasons too.

As to Crowder, I'd love to have him -- and we could have had him. Unfortunately our blind squirrel failed to get that nut. The way you get a guy like Crowder is *before* he's worth a lot in a trade: either you draft him, or you pick him up after his R2-style short rookie contract is over.

By your logic, no trades would ever get made because if both sides accurately value their assets, no deal would please both parties.

The whole idea of trading Beal is based on the notion that his trade value exceeds his actual on-the-court value. Given the general vibe I get from the media and from fan bases, I think this is likely the case with Beal.

I agree that the Celtics wouldn't trade the Avery Bradley of the last 15 games, but I'm assuming they truly value him as a guy somewhere better than his track record of 2013 and 2014, but below his 15-game track record of 2015.

GMs do have to work to craft trades where the assets exchanged are of equal "absolute" value. Nor is this a disincentive to trades. You could argue that no commerce of any kind would ever take place on that premise! But... lets not argue that point of theory.

I'm not against trading Beal, and if in fact (as you seem to suggest) we could get more than he's worth for him -- go for it. Also do that in the case Wall or Temple or Porter or Gary Neal. If you make trades where you get more value than you give, your team improves. That's true by definition.

But, as I wrote, on his career Avery Bradley hasn't been particularly good. Beal for him and Crowder isn't a particularly good trade.

[Illmatic12]

Avery is significantly outplaying Beal, and he does it while playing elite defense. He's locked into a contract that pays him about $8.5M a year for the next 3 years (counting this one). Oh, and Jae Crowder is also a real good player who is locked into a dirt cheap deal for a long long time ($7M a year for 5 years).

If you follow up that Celtics deal by swapping Porter for Noel, then you'd have reset the table nicely:

Wall
Bradley
Oubre
Crowder
Noel

No offense to your idea, but that team would be mediocre with a low ceiling, and Wall would immediately leave in 2017 free agency, leaving us at square 1.

We'd be asking John to be our #1 scoring option/shot creator, which he's never excelled at on an elite level. Furthermore, he's also required to create for four other guys who can't get their own offense. That would be a good team around Lebron James, not John Wall.

Those 5 players are just the youngish players already locked under contract. We would still have Gortat and max cap room in the summer. Ideally, we still get Durant. (Wall is the allure for Durant, not Beal.) We'd have a bit more cap room for Terrence Jones as well:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Bradley/Oubre
SF Durant/Oubre
PF Jones/Crowder
C Noel/Gortat

And without Beal's cap-killing contract, there would be near max money again in 2017.

I would only consider that if Durant specifically told the Wizards that he was coming to DC, and did not want to play with Beal.

Otherwise, I can't see any reasonable rationale for that kind of trade. Chances are, it would only set the franchise back. When the reality sets in that Durant is going to reup with OKC.. the Wizards will once again look like fools, and you can bet Wall's agent will begin looking to negotiate his way out of town.

The only way the Wiz benefit longterm from trading Beal imo is in a package for an established star big man. It's not even a good idea to trade him for multiple draft picks (ie to Philly or Boston), there's too much uncertainty involved and most prospects take years to pan out, if ever.

[robbie84]

Surprised to see all the Beal hate. Seems like an efficient scorer with lot's more potential at 22 years old.
As a Celtics fan we used to loathe Avery Bradley at 22 years old. Beal's still 4 or 5 years away from his prime.
What are his major flaws?
Would you guys trade Beal for Jae Crowder+Avery Bradley?

No, but I would trade Beal for Bradley and the 2016 Brooklyn 1st that Boston owns - in a heartbeat.

We'd probably consider Bradley+ the 1st round Dallas pick we have this year, but the Brooklyn pick is too much.
Maybe if it lands at #6 or #7 then yeah that might work.
I think we'll wait and *hope* that it's a top 5 pick or better.

[robbie84]

I'll also note that Bradley Beal at age 22 is a far more offensively polished player than Avery Bradley will ever be.
Bradley has always been a solid 3 point shooter with All NBA defense.

From what I've seen of Beal, he's got starting All Star potential at the SG spot.
As I said earlier, he's 22 years old with a loooong way to go before he reaches his prime.
I wish Avery Bradley were 75% of what Beal is at age 22.
Avery Bradley's biggest problems for us have been consistency.
Always been an awesome defender, but very inconsistent on the offensive end.

If he kept his current play up for the rest of the year, then we'd never trade him unless it was part of a deal for a top 10 NBA player.
eg: Bradley+Brooklyn 2016 first round pick+ Dallas pick (+ Lee for filler)
for Cousins.


Again, this is my outside view looking in, but it appears you need some more Paul Pierce type veterans there to keep the pressure on Wall and Beal in the locker room and hold them accountable. They've got the keys to the city and for someone at age 22 that might be too much power if that makes sense. Nene is not that guy, Humphries isn't really either. Seems like Dudley is the only father figure you've currently got alongside Gortat.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If we get close to the trade deadline and it is clear we are not playoff bound, do we trade Beal?

Yes. I'd seriously start shopping him now. I'd love to trade him for a late lotto pick. I'd rather have the next Gary Harris making $1.5M a year, than Beal at $22M a year.

This is the kind of knee jerk trade talk post that comes back to haunt you.

Will Barton, Jordan Adams, and Jordan Clarkson come to mind in my Beal trade scenarios.

Barton and Faried plus pick for Nene and Beal?

Faried can run and finish although he's far from great at PF.

[Illmatic12]

Again, this is my outside view looking in, but it appears you need some more Paul Pierce type veterans there to keep the pressure on Wall and Beal in the locker room and hold them accountable. They've got the keys to the city and for someone at age 22 that might be too much power if that makes sense. Nene is not that guy, Humphries isn't really either. Seems like Dudley is the only father figure you've currently got alongside Gortat.

I definitely agree with this.

A lot of Wiz fans are impatient, because Wall is already very good and entering his prime, there's almost this feeling that we NEED Beal to take the same ascension to stardom in order for the team to be good *right now* (the KD pipedream also plays into this, almost every 'trade Beal' post involves some pie-in-the-sky scenario about WAS somehow luring Durant away from a stacked OKC team)

The reality is that most players that young take a while to develop into franchise players/leaders, and that development usually isn't linear. Beal at his age is still developing the maturity and habits needed to be consistently great. Which is what Pierce wanted to hammer home with them:

“I tell them, ‘Learn from all the stuff I did [wrong] when I was young.’

“I talk to them a lot about mental preparation and consistency. I keep telling Wall and Beal, ‘You’ve got to make up your mind. Do you want to be good, or do you want to be great? Because if you want to be great, you gotta do it every single night, not just when you feel like it.’

Just looking at raw stats, Beal's age 22 season compares pretty closely to what Ray Allen was doing at the same age. The difference is that Allen continued to refine his game on/off the court, and became the model of professionalism and consistency over the next decade plus.

It's too early to expect Beal to have developed to that degree, he has to go through the fire first and learn from those experiences. Wall has been through quite a bit and is a step ahead, in terms of maturity/experience, but Beal is really not there yet - a veteran presence who can stay on the Wiz young guys every game, practice, etc would definitely help his development. That's what a guy like Kawhi Leonard had in spades over in San Antonio, and you see what he's becoming as he enters his prime. Paul George was personally developed by Larry Bird, who used to run him through individual workouts and film every day.

With what Beal has done in the postseason at just 20- 21yo taking over games vs the likes of Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Demarre Carroll etc - you can clearly see that the talent and competitive fire is there, it just needs to be refined. Talent doesn't just fall in your laps in this league, you can't just wish Kevin Durant on your team and he will magically appear. Imo you don't just trade away a high upside player like Beal unless it's in a superstar type package. I definitely want Beal to be in a Wiz jersey when he enters his prime years.