The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1)

[Texas Chuck]

[cpower]

another fun stat:
Curry scored at least 20 points in a quarter for the fifth time this season. No other player has done that more than once.

This year or all time?

this year

[eminence]

Crazy, absolutely crazy, dude is +20.3 on a 20-0 team... 45.3 pp100 on 70% TS? He's unstoppable.

[cpower]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stephen-curry-is-the-revolution/
a very very good read.

[PCProductions]

I'm ashamed to say this, but I think we've seen the best of Curry. All I can hope for is a season as good as the last, because I really don't anticipate improvement.

I need to reverse jinx myself like this more often.

[Clyde Frazier]

Even with back to back down games efficiency-wise, curry's WS/48 min is at .446 thru 8 games

* Highest single season WS/48 is Kareem in 71-72 at .340
* Highest single season WS/48 post merger is LeBron in 12-13 at .322 (Jordan right behind in 90-91 at .321)
* Curry finished last season at a league leading .288

So… we’re 20 games in, and while it’s come down a bit, curry is now at .385 WS/48, which would still put him well ahead for the highest all time. At this point, being cautiously optimistic, he should be able to finish over .300. Will check back every 10 games or so to monitor this.

Also, as already mentioned, curry’s scoring 45 pts per 100 on an absurd 70% TS. Took a look at other guys in that range just for some perspective:

http://bkref.com/tiny/x9d3v

[RSCD3_]

I didnt feel like this should be its own thread, so im asking it here

anyone think the Cavaliers even when healthy have a chance vs the warriors

They are about a 4.5 SRS team Right now ( think 14 Heat ) and our missing Irving and Shump. Mozgov is still out of shape also.

If they can get healthy what odds would you give them vs the warriors, the recent 538 article made me feel like their trapping scheme might be the best equipped to lower the warriors efficiency offensively. But as of now only the SPurs look credible?

Thoughts?

[mjj0062]

I didnt feel like this should be its own thread, so im asking it here

anyone think the Cavaliers even when healthy have a chance vs the warriors

They are about a 4.5 SRS team Right now ( think 14 Heat ) and our missing Irving and Shump. Mozgov is still out of shape also.

If they can get healthy what odds would you give them vs the warriors, the recent 538 article made me feel like their trapping scheme might be the best equipped to lower the warriors efficiency offensively. But as of now only the SPurs look credible?

Thoughts?

Right now, no way in hell. But these posts are still premature. I want to see the Cavs completely healthy before making a prediction. The Rockets won 22 in a row and didn't even make the finals, the 13 heat won 27 in a row and were a rebound away from losing in the finals.

Injuries are also something. It seems like GS could be due for an injury to a major roll player

[Purch]

I feel that when the Cavs get healthy... And when the Spurs get their chemistry together they can both challenge the Warriors.

The Spurs are doing well yet they're not even close to their final form. LA isn't completly comfortable... Pop is still trying to figure out rotations. On defense they're elite on offense they have so much room to grow.

[PCProductions]

I didnt feel like this should be its own thread, so im asking it here

anyone think the Cavaliers even when healthy have a chance vs the warriors

They are about a 4.5 SRS team Right now ( think 14 Heat ) and our missing Irving and Shump. Mozgov is still out of shape also.

If they can get healthy what odds would you give them vs the warriors, the recent 538 article made me feel like their trapping scheme might be the best equipped to lower the warriors efficiency offensively. But as of now only the SPurs look credible?

Thoughts?

Just by any objective measure the Warriors look like a class of team that has no peer in the NBA. Cavs included. It's a long season ahead and things can obviously change, but there is a close to zero percent chance that any NBA team right now would win in a 7 game series against the Warriors. The Cavs have internal problems of their own that make them not even the likeliest team of the field to compete. Mozgov has regressed big time and the Cavs' bench just cannot hold leads which explains Lebron's astronomical impact. Basically, even if the starting lineups play each other to a draw--highly unlikely against the Draymond at C lineup--the bench would flourish against Cleveland's.

The Warriors currently stand at a time in NBA history where it looks like they've figured out the NBA, and I mean that non-sarcastically. Sure, you can pin their success on Curry's complete offensive mastery, but remember that they're still a top 6 defense to go with that, so really it's a carefully crafted personnel that knows the way the league plays and how to stop and even exploit it to a degree.

I'm curious to see us play San Antonio as they seem to be the biggest threat to our title chances and that matchup really is the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object in this year's NBA.

Cleveland needs to have a few things happen in order to be a contender against the Warriors:

1) Lebron must find his jumper. Until then, he can be defended the same way as last year which resulted in an offensive efficiency that would rank last in the league.
2) Kyrie must know how to play in Cleveland's ball moving offensive system while maintaining that Game 1 in the Finals defense he flexed on a consistent basis.
3) JR Smith and Shump need to be reliable 3 point shooters. If not, I don't see Cleveland being an offensive threat.
4) Either Mozgov needs to figure out what's going on or Tristan has to become a rim protector.

[SideshowBob]

^^Pretty much nailed it.

[Dr Spaceman]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stephen-curry-is-the-revolution/
a very very good read.

Yeah, the statistical analysis was good and it's a good read in terms of "here's how far ahead of the field Curry is currently".

I've read a lot of this guy's work before though , and this one is no different: he thinks far too one-dimensionally and his arguments and conclusions are seriously flawed. It really is just as simple as him realizing that the more Curry shoots, the more defenses attacking him the way they are will be an effective strategy. This seems pretty simple. I can buy that Curry hasn't hit the limit of how much volume he can take on without killing his efficiency, but I can't buy that it's ever going to be a good idea for him to play the way the author is suggesting. It's just absurd and goes against the way the sport works.

That said, Curry shooting more and more will only make defenses try crazier and crazier schemes, which will in turn make his (and Draymond's) playmaking all the more effective. I hope Curry remains a far better decision-maker than this writer and can analyze when he's done enough shooting.

[cpower]

I didnt feel like this should be its own thread, so im asking it here

anyone think the Cavaliers even when healthy have a chance vs the warriors

They are about a 4.5 SRS team Right now ( think 14 Heat ) and our missing Irving and Shump. Mozgov is still out of shape also.

If they can get healthy what odds would you give them vs the warriors, the recent 538 article made me feel like their trapping scheme might be the best equipped to lower the warriors efficiency offensively. But as of now only the SPurs look credible?

Thoughts?

they have a chance but not a big one. warriors will have HCA and Lebron is another year older. Spurs is GSW's biggest threat by far.

[The-Power]

Yeah, the statistical analysis was good and it's a good read in terms of "here's how far ahead of the field Curry is currently".

I've read a lot of this guy's work before though , and this one is no different: he thinks far too one-dimensionally and his arguments and conclusions are seriously flawed. It really is just as simple as him realizing that the more Curry shoots, the more defenses attacking him the way they are will be an effective strategy. This seems pretty simple. I can buy that Curry hasn't hit the limit of how much volume he can take on without killing his efficiency, but I can't buy that it's ever going to be a good idea for him to play the way the author is suggesting. It's just absurd and goes against the way the sport works.

That said, Curry shooting more and more will only make defenses try crazier and crazier schemes, which will in turn make his (and Draymond's) playmaking all the more effective. I hope Curry remains a far better decision-maker than this writer and can analyze when he's done enough shooting.

I agree with you here. But not only does the author have a too simplistic approach, he also draws at least one questionable conclusion.

He writes:

But perhaps my favorite stat in all of this: Curry’s assists per 100 possessions has plummeted (11.6 last year, 8.5 so far this year, his lowest since 7.8 his rookie year). It’s probably fair to infer that Curry is taking more shots that he used to set up for teammates.

This is not what actually happens, hence I don't like the inference. Watching games and raising the question to oneself as to why Green suddenly looks like the second coming of Larry Bird leads to a different, non box score related conclusion: Golden State plays differently and makes more - and adjusted - use of a) Curry's gravity and b) consequently Green's playmaking. This is the main reason for his lower assist numbers and only by highlighting this shift in terms of strategy one can sufficiently explain why his assist numbers dropped without a reduction of passing turnovers at the same time. Curry does not look for his shot more at the expense of creating for his teammates - he simply creates in a different fashion more often while his overall usage (here defined as overall offensive involvement) increased likewise.

[PCProductions]

Ben Morris is well known for his "Dennis Rodman is the secret GOAT" article. I remember being so impressed with it when I first read it and thinking that I could outsmart my peers by bringing it up and relishing in the sneering that would ensue thinking that I in fact knew better than they did. However, after reading this board for about three years now, it seems borderline primitive in its approach.

This guy obviously is a smart statistician, but his knowledge about the game of basketball is lacking and it shows in articles like the Curry one: he makes big assumptions on raw data, like the lowered assists thing. He isn't stubborn by any means, he just draws conclusions and embarks from there. The Dennis Rodman one is a good example of where you can go with an idea if you pick the data to back up your assertion.

The Curry article was cool and does a good job of displaying how absurd Curry's shooting has been through 20 games to start this season. That's where it stops. The whole notion of "what if he shot EVERY TIME??" is disingenuous because Curry knows better than anybody else when to shoot, and he will shoot when it feels right. If it doesn't, he generally doesn't. Pulling him over and saying shoot more despite how you feel about that shot is not likely to result in more and more success.

[The-Power]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVqlkNm9seg[/youtube]

I believe somebody on GSOM mentioned it: at 1:38 you see Kemba buying a fake from Curry who is about 30ft away from the basket and in no shooting situation (see his body language) whatsoever. This allowed Curry to drive past him and get a (granted, tough) lay-up. Stuff like this is extremely rare for a good reason, it's basically against all defensive instincts.

[RSCD3_]

53-9 remaining for the record. ~13.7 SRS after tonight. Inching close to 116.0 team ORTG.

Curry's at 34.8 PER after tonight as well, back above 5.0 3PM/G threshold at 5.1. His eFG% is 65.0%.

Will start doing SOS/HCA adjustments and In/Out data this weekend.

Also could you compare some of the lineups you ran for the warriors ( as of now ) compared to last years?

IIRC the Cavs ( post trades ) and Warriors Starting Lineups were both pushing 20

[old rem]

I didnt feel like this should be its own thread, so im asking it here

anyone think the Cavaliers even when healthy have a chance vs the warriors

They are about a 4.5 SRS team Right now ( think 14 Heat ) and our missing Irving and Shump. Mozgov is still out of shape also.

If they can get healthy what odds would you give them vs the warriors, the recent 538 article made me feel like their trapping scheme might be the best equipped to lower the warriors efficiency offensively. But as of now only the SPurs look credible?

Thoughts?

they have a chance but not a big one. warriors will have HCA and Lebron is another year older. Spurs is GSW's biggest threat by far.

At the moment... since nobody has beat GSW once... it's hard to say. The Spurs and Cavs are... for sure able to get a win, especially if GSW is on the road. GSW... however...has got VERY good at bringing the " A game" as needed. They won't slack against the best opponents. Nobody has " the book" on how to stop GSW...how to contain Curry. So.... rather that a solid plan.. you go in experimenting. Compared to last year's GSW... THIS version has more experience together, within a system.

The Spurs..don't have weak links on D, but can their depth match up? Will this be the year the Spurs age becomes a factor in the late going? Of course projecting months forward...unable to predict injuries, nothing is certain.

[euliss]

Not his best looking game defensively, on top of Lowry going ham.

But still.. 44 pts, 14-24, 9-15 from 3, 7-9 from the line

[The-Power]

Not his best looking game defensively, on top of Lowry going ham.

Yeah, not his best defensive game - like his teammates - but Lowry was quite often not his assignment, though. But man, my pulse is still in noxious heights. People are often talking about how boring constant blowouts must be but I still prefer them for my own health's sake.