PC Board OT thread

[Texas Chuck]

Chuck's daily Zaza update (I really do need a thread....)

http://www.sbnation.com/2015/12/2/9837458/zaza-pachulia-mavericks-bucks-breakdown-stats

Pretty good article detailing his impact on the Mavs and the Bucks.

[RSCD3_]

Want to know a big reason why Sacramento is having troubles winning games

They're opponents finishing FG% at the rim is 71.6%. that's insane...

[Reservoirdawgs]

Any thoughts on the new Batman v. Superman trailer?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xedGkVKfWhM

I liked the beginning, but I'm not a fan of how they showed...well...almost the entire damn film! We've seen the fight, the make-up, the common enemy, and the introduction of Wonder Woman. I would have preferred more mystery surrounding the movie in the 3.5 months until it comes out.

[Dr Spaceman]

So open question to the room- and let me qualify this. I'm re-evaluating the way I use a lot of stats, and specifically looking to reduce my usage of certain of them. I've become very confident in my ability to watch and break down games, and more importantly I find that a far superior approach in terms of accurately rating and comparing players. So with this said:

Does it mean anything to you guys that RPM "saw" Draymond and Kawhi and to a lesser extent Curry last season? Obviously all 3 are having breakout seasons, but it's notable to me that last year all 3 were huge points of contention and now they've been given bigger roles and carte blanche to "prove it".

I'm decidedly neutral on this- it's very obviously confirmation bias. I actually haven's made any effort to make RPM a serious part of my player evaluations this year, and I'm happy with how it's working, although stats are necessary in the sense that you can't reasonably see even 5-10% of most players' minutes. So I want people's opinions on it.

[bondom34]

So open question to the room- and let me qualify this. I'm re-evaluating the way I use a lot of stats, and specifically looking to reduce my usage of certain of them. I've become very confident in my ability to watch and break down games, and more importantly I find that a far superior approach in terms of accurately rating and comparing players. So with this said:

Does it mean anything to you guys that RPM "saw" Draymond and Kawhi and to a lesser extent Curry last season? Obviously all 3 are having breakout seasons, but it's notable to me that last year all 3 were huge points of contention and now they've been given bigger roles and carte blanche to "prove it".

I'm decidedly neutral on this- it's very obviously confirmation bias. I actually haven's made any effort to make RPM a serious part of my player evaluations this year, and I'm happy with how it's working, although stats are necessary in the sense that you can't reasonably see even 5-10% of most players' minutes. So I want people's opinions on it.

I don't know if it really "saw" much that wasn't seen. Of the 3 guys listed, Green is the only one who I'd say has a contentious stance around here (and I still see the issue of him being such a perfect fit on that team that it boosts his RPM numbers and though I view him a bit higher due to increased role, still stand by where I was last year with him and remain there). If you're saying RPM saw something, it did the same for Middleton, Korver, Danny Green, and Mirotic, all of who don't look so hot right now at all. You can pick as many who've fallen as who've maintained mostly.

[dontcalltimeout]

If you're saying RPM saw something, it did the same for Middleton

The other players I can't speak for, but I think the Middleton drop off can be explained by changes in his role and the team. Last year he played almost 70% of his minutes at the 4. This year he's playing exclusively at the 2 and 3. It's also worth noting that the Bucks just haven't been good. Parker and Monroe are hurting the team defense overall and this influences RPM as well as the box score prior.

[bondom34]

If you're saying RPM saw something, it did the same for Middleton

The other players I can't speak for, but I think the Middleton drop off can be explained by changes in his role and the team. Last year he played almost 70% of his minutes at the 4. This year he's playing exclusively at the 2 and 3. It's also worth noting that the Bucks just haven't been good. Parker and Monroe are hurting the team defense overall and this influences RPM as well as the box score prior.

Strange, because talking w/ Bucks fans they never mention him at the 4, but bbr has him there. Interesting catch.

[dontcalltimeout]

If you're saying RPM saw something, it did the same for Middleton

The other players I can't speak for, but I think the Middleton drop off can be explained by changes in his role and the team. Last year he played almost 70% of his minutes at the 4. This year he's playing exclusively at the 2 and 3. It's also worth noting that the Bucks just haven't been good. Parker and Monroe are hurting the team defense overall and this influences RPM as well as the box score prior.

Strange, because talking w/ Bucks fans they never mention him at the 4, but bbr has him there. Interesting catch.

Yeah, and thinking about it, I'm not even sure it's about him actually playing power forward in a meaningful way, but about the ridiculous defensive lineups they were running (lots of switching & pressuring) which his versatility helps with. If you look at their best lineups from last year, the vast majority feature Pachulia, Middleton, and Dudley. Even though his offense isn't average, he's reasonable efficient and shoots over 40% on a team that desperately needed scoring and spacing (especially when Knight was traded). So he's good enough on offense that he allowed the team to run ridiculous defensive lineups.

I don't know what to make of the Bucks this year, seeing as how they lost Pachulia and Dudley, and acquired a big that can't defend.

[Texas Chuck]

The worst part about the Bucks off-season is they could have added all the players they did(namely Monroe) and still been able to keep both Dudley and Zaza and they got nothing in return for either guy. They just gave them away needlessly. I heard from some Bucks fans that Dudley wanted out, but even still both guys were very useful and they wouldn't have approached tax status with them.

[dontcalltimeout]

The worst part about the Bucks off-season is they could have added all the players they did(namely Monroe) and still been able to keep both Dudley and Zaza and they got nothing in return for either guy. They just gave them away needlessly. I heard from some Bucks fans that Dudley wanted out, but even still both guys were very useful and they wouldn't have approached tax status with them.

Right. Which is why I was confused when people were high on them before the season. They got noticeably worse when they traded Knight. They got worse in the off-season. Maybe people were expecting Giannis to make a huge improvement? idk.

[The-Power]

They got worse in the off-season. Maybe people were expecting Giannis to make a huge improvement? idk.

The problem is that the current team construction isn't doing Giannis any favor. If you trust him, build your team around his strengths or at least take his needs heavily into account. If you don't trust him, then still don't desperately focus on players who don't contribute to winning while letting players go who actually help.

[dontcalltimeout]

They got worse in the off-season. Maybe people were expecting Giannis to make a huge improvement? idk.

The problem is that the current team construction isn't doing Giannis any favor. If you trust him, build your team around his strengths or at least take his needs heavily into account. If you don't trust him, then still don't desperately focus on players who don't contribute to winning while letting players go who actually help.

I think the problem is MCW and Monroe don't fit into either of those scenarios. They don't fit well with Giannis (as he develops) and they don't help with winning now.

[The-Power]

They got worse in the off-season. Maybe people were expecting Giannis to make a huge improvement? idk.

The problem is that the current team construction isn't doing Giannis any favor. If you trust him, build your team around his strengths or at least take his needs heavily into account. If you don't trust him, then still don't desperately focus on players who don't contribute to winning while letting players go who actually help.

I think the problem is MCW and Monroe don't fit into either of those scenarios. They don't fit well with Giannis (as he develops) and they don't help with winning now.

Yep, I mentioned it a couple of weeks ago or so on this board and elaborated on it a bit. Neither Monroe nor MCW are good players and neither one fits with Giannis particularly well (MCW on offense, Monroe on both ends). Really sad to see this team heading into the wrong direction, imo. Let's hope they'll figure it out soon and start making moves to build around Giannis. Middleton is a great player to pair with Giannis and he and Parker together could work out as well after Parker further develops his NBA game. But MCW and Monroe should be moved or at least be assigned to a reduced role in the near future.

[Dr Spaceman]

They got worse in the off-season. Maybe people were expecting Giannis to make a huge improvement? idk.

The problem is that the current team construction isn't doing Giannis any favor. If you trust him, build your team around his strengths or at least take his needs heavily into account. If you don't trust him, then still don't desperately focus on players who don't contribute to winning while letting players go who actually help.

Taking a detour for a second... What is Giannis? Is he good? What position does he actually play? Will he ever be a capable scorer? Is he an impact defender?

He's the strangest prospect I've ever seen. It seems like the disparity between what he is and what people think he is is like two different players. I mean he's a good playmaker for his size, but what is he good at? I guess what I'm trying to say with all this is, are you really using him as the focal point to build a team?

Genuinely asking BTW. I've never understood what to make of him.

[dontcalltimeout]

They got worse in the off-season. Maybe people were expecting Giannis to make a huge improvement? idk.

The problem is that the current team construction isn't doing Giannis any favor. If you trust him, build your team around his strengths or at least take his needs heavily into account. If you don't trust him, then still don't desperately focus on players who don't contribute to winning while letting players go who actually help.

Taking a detour for a second... What is Giannis? Is he good? What position does he actually play? Will he ever be a capable scorer? Is he an impact defender?

He's the strangest prospect I've ever seen. It seems like the disparity between what he is and what people think he is is like two different players. I mean he's a good playmaker for his size, but what is he good at? I guess what I'm trying to say with all this is, are you really using him as the focal point to build a team?

Genuinely asking BTW. I've never understood what to make of him.

Well, I don't know if he has to have a determined position to be a good prospect, and his versatility is a reason some are high on him. I've only watched Giannis a couple of times this year, but this is what i see:

Mostly, his potential is physical. He seems like the perfect body for the modern NBA, he's very quick and mobile for his size, and getting stronger. He's a built in mismatch basically, at whatever position he ends up (he's already shown flashes of being able to post smaller players or beat bigs off the dribble).

In terms of skill, he's still very raw, but has shown some improvement this year in the halfcourt. He has good hands and is improving his ball handling. His shooting needs to continue to improve.

Defense, he has a lot of work to ITO off-ball play/dealing with screens, but his ability to stay with perimeter players on-ball is promising. His length allows him a lot of leeway even when he makes mistakes.

Not sure whether he will ever be the focal point of a contender, but he could be a very nice player.

[The-Power]

They got worse in the off-season. Maybe people were expecting Giannis to make a huge improvement? idk.

The problem is that the current team construction isn't doing Giannis any favor. If you trust him, build your team around his strengths or at least take his needs heavily into account. If you don't trust him, then still don't desperately focus on players who don't contribute to winning while letting players go who actually help.

Taking a detour for a second... What is Giannis? Is he good? What position does he actually play? Will he ever be a capable scorer? Is he an impact defender?

He's the strangest prospect I've ever seen. It seems like the disparity between what he is and what people think he is is like two different players. I mean he's a good playmaker for his size, but what is he good at? I guess what I'm trying to say with all this is, are you really using him as the focal point to build a team?

Genuinely asking BTW. I've never understood what to make of him.

I elaborated on Giannis a bit in the recent past so I'll just quote some of my takes on him and how I rate him as a prospect.

Spoiler:

We all know about his amazing transition offense but it is great to see how assertive he is becoming in taking small defenders in the post and bigger defender off the dribble. His length, new gained strength, footwork, decent handles and quickness makes him unguardable in certain settings. Let him develop a consistent midrage jumper at least - which he should develop over time because he does not have poor shooting mechanics - and he is going to be a handful for teams on any given night.

I talked about his defense early and stick to my statements: in the current league he can very well become a DPOY-level player. He is already extremely disruptive in the lanes and understands how to bother opponents with his length, both in terms man-defense and help-defense. Occasional overplays are going to be reduced when he matures further and gains more experience. He is not at an elite level just yet but I'm convinced he will get there, he plays some absolutely elite defensive possessions every game. Especially his perimeter defense has some flaws to overcome but he has all the tools to do so - I assume him believing he has to do everything on defense leads to poor defensive results from the perimeter. Once he settles in - and the Bucks get someone he can trust in the paint - this problem is going to be alleviated at the very least.

Anyway, I don't think the Bucks have the right team around him. Disruptive perimeter defense for the transition game he excels in is there but the half court offense is a mess at times. I mean, it is not even like Kidd doesn't know how to emphasize ball movement and running plays. Actually this is one reason they are a middle-of-the-pack offensive team. But the spacing is awful and this hurts Giannis the most. When you have Parker and Giannis as the cornerstones of the franchise you better surround them with decent shooters. Middleton is such a guy but MCW is absolutely useless on offense for them (and, frankly, for most teams) - especially in his current role. Monroe is meh. Not the worst fit on offense but he does not help with the spacing problem either and the fact that he is a) someone who likes to play with the back to the basket (less spacing, slower pace - exactly what the Bucks do not need) and b) does not provide rim-protection (i.e. probably reinforcing Giannis' tendency to do too much on defense) makes him an overall poor fit.

Get a Center who plays less in the low post and can give you some rim protection, get a PG in the mold of Jrue Holiday (this means: solid shooter who can run the offense with decent success but does not dominate the ball) and play a faster brand of basketball (maybe the most important aspect right now: with a good defense, especially at the perimeter, and a transition player like Giannis you should by no means be at the bottom in pace, although not having a consistent creator on offense hurts the chances to constantly force a higher pace). Future is bright, but the Bucks need to make some more roster changes in order to build around Giannis' strengths. Hopefully they'll get it done sooner rather than later. I like this guy quite a bit.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=45121578#p45121578

Giannis looks like he has DPOY potential. Seriously, he covers so much ground and can bother anyone in the league, from quick PGs like Wall to the biggest guys out there, with his length and mobility. At times he tries to much, leaving his man open in order to help. But 1) he can do that to an extent because he can cover ground so quickly and 2) he's going to figure it out when to show and not eventually.

But I'm really impressed how much he seems to have improved and it's outstanding to see how important he already is for the Bucks on both ends. Offensively, he is unguardable on the fast break, has the potential to become a really good offensive rebounder, got stronger and should therefore be better finisher this season. And overall he seems to be more calm, confident and aware of what he can and can't do. Still a very exciting guy, love to watch him and his development!

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44915352#p44915352

And from a Giannis-Wiggins-comparison back in April:

This is an extremely interesting topic.

This season it's Giannis easily, though. Wiggins has bigger scoring role (23.8 vs. 20.9 PP100P) but Giannis has the clear edge in efficiency (55.8 vs. 51.7 TS%), is the better rebounder (though this was to be expected for positioning reasons alone), the better playmaker and definitely a superior defender at this point. His length combined with athleticism bothers opponents and his gained experience in the league helped him to use it more effectively by now while Wiggins showed promising signs but still lacks consistency and the impact Giannis has. Most advanced metrics as well as the eye test agree with this notion.

The more difficult question is about their respective future. I see Wiggins as the more natural scorer while Giannis seems to be the more versatile player going forward. His controlled attacking (he's rarely out of control and has a good feel for what happens around him, which enables him to react accordingly) is something I'm really looking forward to in terms of how good he can become in this regard. Wiggins, on the other hand, should be able to improve the use of his insane athleticism offensively as soon as the game slows down for him and he works on certain skills. Both should be impactful defenders for the future. I wouldn't be surprised about Wiggins being the more effective one-on-one defender against guards and some small forwards, but I am extremely intrigued by Giannis' potential as a help defender and also think he's going to be the more versatile defender.

I guess most people predict a better future for Wiggins at this point. I'm not so sure about this. Let me put it this way: I do believe Wiggins is going to be the more prolific scorer which allows him to be the first option on a good team while also having an impact on defense. I don't believe Giannis is going to be this kind of a scorer (albeit a good one), but I believe it's easier to build an offense around his skill set. The combination of either size or speed advantage depending on the match-up and his feel for the game is pretty rare. He's going to be a walking mismatch as soon as learns how to abuse smaller players in the post and how to use his speed against bigger guys consistently - he's already made progress in both aspects this season. Last year many users believed that most people are simply enthusiastic about his unique combination of body and style of play and predict a bright future based on his insane measurements alone. But the way he developed so far shows me that it's more and more likely for him to reach the high level many people expected, he's getting better and better in realizing what he can and can't do and how to beneficially use his natural gifts on the court.

I'm leaning towards Giannis at this point and I wouldn't be surprised if this topic remains one for a long time. I expect Giannis to be a player with a bigger impact on his team than his raw numbers suggest. Kind of like KG, for example. Wiggins, on the other hand, is more likely to put up more impressive boxscore numbers. For the record, I'm not saying he's going to be a guy with great raw stats and little impact. But I feel like he's going to get more attention compared to Giannis because of it although it doesn't fairly reflect their actual impact relative to each other.

Another interesting question could be: who has more trade value around the league at this point? Instinctively I'd say Wiggins but I can see some team which are - just like me - fascinated by Giannis' potential and actually prefer him as a player going forward for the reasons I mentioned above. It should be at least worth a discussion.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=43263740#p43263740

To summarize a couple of points:

1. He has crazy defensive potential. He has the length and sufficient quickness to bother all sorts of perimeter players in the league like very few people do but he also has the length and sufficient strength to be matched-up with bigger guys. But most importantly: he likes playing defense! Not only does he have all the physical tools in the world, he also wants to defend and leave his imprint on the game on that end. This aspect is often underappreciated in my opinion. Someone who is willing to leave everything on the court on defense is also willing to work on his flaws. Right now the biggest flaw in his defensive game is that he tries to do too much and therefore making quite a few errors per game. With his length and mobility he can make up for some errors but he needs to have more composure overall. I argued in one of the quoted posts that I some of it has to do with Monroe. On top of his overly aggressive help defense I'm sure he has in mind that he does not only has to defend his man or being disruptive in the playing lanes whenever it's smart to do so but that he also has to make up for the lack of rim protection provided by Monroe. Give him a rim protector and he can concentrate more on defending the perimeter while also being some sort of free-flowing defender who provides help whenever he has the chance to do so. Similar to what Garnett was capable of doing. I stick with my prediction that he has the potential to be a DPOY-level player even though he has ways to go, obviously.

2. On offense, he keeps improving I would say. As argued in the quotes above, he is a walking mismatch and learning how to use this advantage on a nightly basis. He can drive past bigger guys and finishes good around the rim with his length and solid fundamentals (that Eurostep can be lethal!) but also his drive against perimeter players has the potential to be really good given his physical advantage. I don't know which game it was but there was I game when he was given the ball three times at the perimeter in four or five possessions and he was looking to score. Giannis got get to the rim seemingly with ease each time and finish like it was nothing. I almost yelled at my TV because they refused to give him the ball again after that span, for whatever reason. He also works on his post-game and seems less hesitant to punish smaller players especially when he can get into positions relatively close to the rim. Smaller guys tend to reach in in order to defend him and he developed a nice counter to it. I don't have to lose words about his transition offense I think. One just has to look at how the Bucks look for him every damn time when they are in the fast-break. This is the main reason why I don't get how they can play at such a low pace, it's absolutely insane in my mind. Also his ballhandling is very good for a guy of his size and the game should also slow down for him so he can be more effective as a playmaker whenever they decide to give him a chance. Three things are going to determine his success: 1) Does he have the necessary scoring mentality? I would say he has the drive to be a primary option from what I heard and saw of him but it might not be enough to challenge his coach to let him do his stuff. 2) Will he develop a consistent jumpshot? It was good to see that, on offense, he plays more to his strengths by now - driving to the rim, running the floor and going for the offensive board. But at one point he needs a decent jumpshot to become a consistent 20 PPG scorer. He has the tools but of course we have to see it regularly in games before we can ascribe it to him. 3) Are the Bucks going to be building around his strengths? Probably the biggest question mark at the moment because they seem to pursue a different plan as of now. They have not only to acknowledge his talent but, at some point, also trusting him to be a huge part of their offense (which means not only running more plays for him but also making roster move according to his skillset) - with all the consequences. I hope they do so but it remains to be seen.

[sp6r=underrated]

Quarter of the way through the season

Things I Was Wrong About
1. I dramatically underestimated the Warriors. I was not one of the people who thought the Warriors were a fluke champion but I thought there would be some regression due to the mental strain of playing GOAT level for most of last year. Curry is turning maybe the greatest season in NBA history.
2. I overestimated the Clippers. The Clippers of 2013 through 2015 were playing championship level basketball but got bad luck with their post-season matchups and injuries. Their offseason acquisitions looked to sure up a weak bench. At the beginning of season I was almost ready to declare them the best team in the NBA.
3. The emergence of a legitimate Eastern Conference. Over the last 16 years there have been a few season when the East has 3-4 good teams but even then the bottom was very weak. This year the conference is very strong. Cleveland is the favorite but Atlanta, Boston and a resurgant Indiana look extremely dangerous. Even the 6-8 seeds look to be good.

Things I might be right about
1. Spo is a better coach than Kidd. Kidd's track record consists of one poor season in which the team probably played slightly worse all year than the year before despite significant roster improvement. 2014 should be considered a poor coaching performance. In 2015, the Bucks returned to .500 from a team that was the worse in the league which is a success but they have regressed right back to being awful. I don't know how anyone can consider him better than Spo even if you limit his resume to just 09 and 10.
2. Kawhi Leonard being maybe the best SF in the NBA. Lebron has played slightly better this year but it isn't by much.

[ceiling raiser]

If you're saying RPM saw something, it did the same for Middleton

The other players I can't speak for, but I think the Middleton drop off can be explained by changes in his role and the team. Last year he played almost 70% of his minutes at the 4. This year he's playing exclusively at the 2 and 3. It's also worth noting that the Bucks just haven't been good. Parker and Monroe are hurting the team defense overall and this influences RPM as well as the box score prior.

I would caution against placing *too much* stock in B-R's positional designations. Certainly a step in the right direction, but the guys on the Nylon Calculus podcast a few months ago noted that it seems they're parsing the play-by-play, and assigning positions 1-5 based on height. I haven't done too much research on this, but I recall mystic mentioning this as an issue as well.

[Doctor MJ]

We're in December and the Warriors have a TS% of 60.

It's a great time to be a basketball fan.

[Doctor MJ]

So open question to the room- and let me qualify this. I'm re-evaluating the way I use a lot of stats, and specifically looking to reduce my usage of certain of them. I've become very confident in my ability to watch and break down games, and more importantly I find that a far superior approach in terms of accurately rating and comparing players. So with this said:

Does it mean anything to you guys that RPM "saw" Draymond and Kawhi and to a lesser extent Curry last season? Obviously all 3 are having breakout seasons, but it's notable to me that last year all 3 were huge points of contention and now they've been given bigger roles and carte blanche to "prove it".

I'm decidedly neutral on this- it's very obviously confirmation bias. I actually haven's made any effort to make RPM a serious part of my player evaluations this year, and I'm happy with how it's working, although stats are necessary in the sense that you can't reasonably see even 5-10% of most players' minutes. So I want people's opinions on it.

Well I think everyone knows I really support +/- in general. I use RPM as my go to on this now because it's so available but I still wish we there was more focus on non box score influence regression data.

I think it says great things about RPM that it "saw" those guys last year...but it's funny because the new more stat-producing roles these guys have make people think these guys are improving more than they actually are imho. Not saying the new roles aren't a good thing, but to me the real takeaway isn't, say, that guy with big RPM can be given bigger roles successfully but rather that you don't actually need to give them the big role for them to have huge impact.

Put another way: It feels a little bit like me saying Player X is awesome and then having someone else jump in to say the same thing after that guy wins a ring. A bit of a "broken clock still right twice a day" thing.