Should Rich Cho be fired for his drafting

[Mystical Apples]

I can't get past the premise drafting is the big problem with Al Jefferson on the roster.

[yosemiteben]

If MJ meddles than Cho should tell him to STFU and let him do his job. You don't hire a chef only to go into his kitchen and tell him what to put on the menu.

If by "you don't" you mean that's not how it should happen, that's one thing, but a GM shouldn't be expected to quit because an owner is giving instructions about the desired direction and goals of the team.

Dolan did that for a long time until Phil came to town. Cuban does too. Buss family. Vivek. Prokohov. Reinsdorf. I obviously don't have super detailed knowledge about owner - GM relations across the league but I do know it's not unusual for the owners to shape the direction of a franchise and pass down an ultimatum to the GM.

[Mystical Apples]

Before last summer who does Cho tell off anyways? It could've applied to Polk, Higgins, or Jordan. Or possibly Higgins had to tell Polk. Or Clifford had to ask Higgins to pass along to Polk who relayed it to Michael via various friends and family members.

So confusing. Someone should compile a flow chart.

[yosemiteben]

It'll be interesting to see if the narrative on Noel changes at all if he doesn't improve his production from so far this year.

[EwingSweatsALot]

So I took a look at every player drafted in the first round over the last ten years. What pick they were drafted. Which team drafted them/traded for them on draft night. Their win shares. And their win shares per 82 games.

I looked at the last 5 years, the years Cho has been here to draft.

The numbers are skewed but the rankings should not be. The numbers are skewed because obviously as a player gets older typically the better they become. So when comparing guys in year two to guys in year 8 is kind of difficult on the WS production. At some point they get better and their stats jump. But the theory remains the same in that everybody is graded the same in this dumbed down scenario.

Take a look at Charlotte's last 5 years.

Picks- 7
Avg pick spot- 9.4 (only 6 teams have picked higher on average)
Win Shares drafted- 44.5 (2nd in the league)
Win Shares/pick- 6.4 (10th in the league)
Win Shares/82G combined- 3.4 (15th in the league)

Looks ok. Until you compare the players we drafted with the picks we picked them at. What are the players WS/82 compared to the 10 guys that were picked in that spot? For example. Kylie Irving has 8.5 WS/82G. He was picked first and on average the first pick has 6.8. So he's 1.7 better.

Charlottes pick difference is 21st in the NBA over the last 5 years.

Taking the 5 closest picks for each player into account. Charlotte is 16th in that differential.

So, even though the data is somewhat hard to quantify because of where everyone is in their career. It still shows what most believe that we are a well below average drafting team in this league.

One random note I found that shocked me. Only 5 players have more WS than Cody Zeller that were drafted in the 2013 first round. All of them drafted 12th or after. 3 of them drafted in the 20s.

[LofJ]

I don't know why we're rehashing the value of MKG again. He proved himself last year when he was the only starter on the team with a positive statistical contribution when it comes to the only thing that matters - winning games. Kemba might have ended up on the plus side as well if it wasn't for his injury, but then again we all know that injuries ruined our season last year.

The guy I'm really disappointed in so far this year is Zeller. With Al out his time is now, he needs to start producing. If he doesn't I'll place him next to Biyombo as Cho's biggest blunder.

[BlackOutBuzz]

1. Davis
2. Drummond
3. Green
4. Lillard
5. Beal
6. MKG
7. Middleton
8. Barnes

I'd probably still put MKG top 5. I get the argument for Beal, he's like the opposite type of player and I just think MKG's skillset is more valuable/unique. Probably about a wash though.

I don't agree with a lot of these national guys putting Barnes so high. I've been a big fan of his since he committed to UNC, but now I'm not even sure he's the best UNC product out of that draft.

Of the 4 guys ahead of MKG, Davis was obviously out of reach, and when Green and Lillard were MKG's current age they were still in school, so I don't blame Cho for going with the upside pick.

That leaves Drummond. I'm really curious to see how he does this year with Monroe gone. Stats are good but the team is right about where we are.

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[Hornet Mania]

Hard to say, seems like MJ and perhaps even a few others (the infamous "we all took a vote" story where even MJ's daughter got to chime in comes to mind, can't remember if that was for Vonleh or Frank) generally play some role in the drafting process.

One thing I do know, and it makes me a bit hesitant to just straight-up cut bait, is that Cho consistently does well and oftentimes absolutely destroys teams in trades. He has pretty consistently been able to bring back solid value in terms of lottery picks (even if we later waste them) and getting less-heralded young guys like Lamb or McRoberts for pennies on the dollar who contribute. He is also good about keeping our cap slate flexible. Even when we brutally miss (like with Lance) the contract is never so onerous that it hangs over franchise for any significant length of time.

Having a GM who does 2/3 of the job well is not the worst thing in the world. It makes me wonder if MJ gave Cho full control (if that is indeed a back-and-forth relationship) OR we get a better scouting department altogether whether that might improve the front office more than simply firing Cho. The next GM may be a wiz at drafting but get Billy King'd in trades or make unforced errors in salary management and we're no better off. Right now I still feel it's probably easier to fix our drafting under Cho than it is to find another GM who will match Cho's performance in trades/cap management while also being a superior drafter.

[EwingSweatsALot]

1. Davis
2. Drummond
3. Green
4. Lillard
5. Beal
6. MKG
7. Middleton
8. Barnes

I'd probably still put MKG top 5. I get the argument for Beal, he's like the opposite type of player and I just think MKG's skillset is more valuable/unique. Probably about a wash though.

I don't agree with a lot of these national guys putting Barnes so high. I've been a big fan of his since he committed to UNC, but now I'm not even sure he's the best UNC product out of that draft.

Of the 4 guys ahead of MKG, Davis was obviously out of reach, and when Green and Lillard were MKG's current age they were still in school, so I don't blame Cho for going with the upside pick.

That leaves Drummond. I'm really curious to see how he does this year with Monroe gone. Stats are good but the team is right about where we are.

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Green was nowhere in reach either. He was taken in the 2nd round. Everybody passed on him. Nobody got it right except the Warriors. It's stupid for some people to say well we should have drafted Green, I mean I guess if you had a time machine and went into the future and saw what he was going to be and then could still stand the criticism for taking a 2nd round projection 2nd overall in a draft that just broke our heart with not getting the top pick. HOLY **** THAT WAS A RUN ON SENTENCE.

Drummond to me also was a no no. People knew he had talent, but we couldn't handle his immaturity and lack of caring off the court. If we take him at 2, with the issues we had and the poor stability and infrastructure, it would have magnified his issues. He would not have been in a good situation if we drafted him. Both him and our franchise would have suffered IMO.

[Mystical Apples]

1. Davis
2. Drummond
3. Green
4. Lillard
5. Beal
6. MKG
7. Middleton
8. Barnes

I'd probably still put MKG top 5. I get the argument for Beal, he's like the opposite type of player and I just think MKG's skillset is more valuable/unique. Probably about a wash though.

I don't agree with a lot of these national guys putting Barnes so high. I've been a big fan of his since he committed to UNC, but now I'm not even sure he's the best UNC product out of that draft.

Of the 4 guys ahead of MKG, Davis was obviously out of reach, and when Green and Lillard were MKG's current age they were still in school, so I don't blame Cho for going with the upside pick.

That leaves Drummond. I'm really curious to see how he does this year with Monroe gone. Stats are good but the team is right about where we are.

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Green was nowhere in reach either. He was taken in the 2nd round. Everybody passed on him. Nobody got it right except the Warriors. It's stupid for some people to say well we should have drafted Green, I mean I guess if you had a time machine and went into the future and saw what he was going to be and then could still stand the criticism for taking a 2nd round projection 2nd overall in a draft that just broke our heart with not getting the top pick. HOLY **** THAT WAS A RUN ON SENTENCE.

Drummond to me also was a no no. People knew he had talent, but we couldn't handle his immaturity and lack of caring off the court. If we take him at 2, with the issues we had and the poor stability and infrastructure, it would have magnified his issues. He would not have been in a good situation if we drafted him. Both him and our franchise would have suffered IMO.

What's hilarious is The Warriors got it wrong too. Draymond was their 3rd choice that draft after Barnes and Festus.

[HornetJail]

Give me:

Davis
Drummond
Green
MKG
Lillard (don't regret passing on him at all- he's good but not a big enough upgrade over Kemba to warrant passing on MKG for)
Middleton
Beal
Barnes
Henson
Ezeli
Fournier (if this keeps up)
Crowder
T-Jones
Lamb

Not really much of a fan of anyone else, though Meyers Leonard was balling in limited minutes last year.

[HornetJail]

It'll be interesting to see if the narrative on Noel changes at all if he doesn't improve his production from so far this year.

He's been quite sucky on offense this year. 162 points on 160 shots, and his blocks are way down too. In his defense he was injured for a bit and there's no doubt Okafor is making things tougher for him on offense, with that Al Jefferson effect.

Wouldn't mind seeing him on a good team where he can just focus on playing defense for 24-30mpg.

And for the record, I am not a fan of any of the Sixers' draft picks. Their 2016 draft will pretty much determine whether their next playoff appearance occurs in 2019 or 2029 IMO. Through three years of horrendous horrendous basketball, and 5 lottery picks, they have drafted one player that has played an NBA game so far, and will be contributing to a winning team in 4 years and that's Noel. It's questionable whether Embiid will ever play, I've never been much of a fan of Okafor, Saric, or MCW (they won that trade holy ****), and I thought Noel was a major gamble in terms of his health. If they blow this 2016 draft with their own pick, the Lakers' pick, and other 1sts, they are pretty much boned.

[BlackOutBuzz]

1. Davis
2. Drummond
3. Green
4. Lillard
5. Beal
6. MKG
7. Middleton
8. Barnes

I'd probably still put MKG top 5. I get the argument for Beal, he's like the opposite type of player and I just think MKG's skillset is more valuable/unique. Probably about a wash though.

I don't agree with a lot of these national guys putting Barnes so high. I've been a big fan of his since he committed to UNC, but now I'm not even sure he's the best UNC product out of that draft.

Of the 4 guys ahead of MKG, Davis was obviously out of reach, and when Green and Lillard were MKG's current age they were still in school, so I don't blame Cho for going with the upside pick.

That leaves Drummond. I'm really curious to see how he does this year with Monroe gone. Stats are good but the team is right about where we are.

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Green was nowhere in reach either. He was taken in the 2nd round. Everybody passed on him. Nobody got it right except the Warriors. It's stupid for some people to say well we should have drafted Green, I mean I guess if you had a time machine and went into the future and saw what he was going to be and then could still stand the criticism for taking a 2nd round projection 2nd overall in a draft that just broke our heart with not getting the top pick. HOLY **** THAT WAS A RUN ON SENTENCE.

Yeah, agree with all the above. Unfortunately these redrafts never take into account stuff like "this guy was never even thought of as a first round pick" and instead it's "LOL BOBCATS PASSED ON GREEN."

I also highly doubt Green looks this good on 9/10 teams. Though good for him for outplaying the 7th overall pick from the same draft.

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[HornetJail]

Yeah, agree with all the above. Unfortunately these redrafts never take into account stuff like "this guy was never even thought of as a first round pick" and instead it's "LOL BOBCATS PASSED ON GREEN."

I also highly doubt Green looks this good on 9/10 teams. Though good for him for outplaying the 7th overall pick from the same draft.

Green really could not have dreamed of being placed into a better situation. There is no better PF for the Warriors than him, and I would seriously include Anthony Davis and Blake Griffin in that list. The Warriors don't make it to the Finals, and they don't start 20-0 this season without Dray's defense and passing at the PF position, and they don't need the extra scoring with Curry being this good. With Green's talent, he would probably still find his way as a top 10 PF in the game on most teams... especially a team like us this year. Can you imagine where we would be right now with Draymond Green instead of Jeffery Taylor and Marvin Williams? ugh

[JMAC3]

I think it is easy to look back at every draft class and point fingers and state why didn't we draft this guy or that guy, Aka hindsight is 20/20.

I think we could of drafted better yes, but I think Cho as a whole has done a good job. Drafting is a crapshoot a lot of the time, and we all hit on some picks, but miss on others in our mind. For Instance, if I am being honest with myself here is who I would of drafted in each draft at the time.

2011- Klay Thompson and Donatas Montijunas
2012- Bradley Beal (MKG was second tho and I didnt want anything to do with Barnes or Drummond)
2013- I wanted Anthony Bennett or Oladipo, but with both gone I would of taken Alex Len.
2014- I wanted Stauskas, but with Vonleh falling I would of picked him or taken James Young.
2015- Devin Booker

So I have done okay, and honestly I have been a big proponent of adding a 2 guard who can shoot in almost every draft, so if we take Thompson that year it may have changed my opinions later on.

Honestly tho, I think the only pick we have really messed up was Biz and that probably hurt us for awhile as many people have pointed out already in this thread.

[Mystical Apples]

Speaking of Khris Middleton he's another interesting case study of how random talent evaluation can be.

Golden State - Acquired Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis and former #6 Epke Udoh. GS fans vilified management for trading crowd favorite Monta but the team thought it was worth the risk. Comically, after all the hand wringing, the best move over that 4 month period wasn't getting injury prone Bogut, or Barnes, or Festus, but 2nd rounder Draymond. The next best move was shipping Monta to give Klay Thompson playing time.

Milwaukee - After the dumb Bogut trade Milwaukee soon realized the Monta-Brandon Jennings pairing was never going to work. Within a year they let Ellis walk while Udoh turned out to be a bust. Poof - just like that Bogut was gone and Milwaukee had nothing to show for it. To compound matters, the Bucks were sick of Brandon Jennings so they began shopping him to any team that would take their overrated headache. Fortunately Detroit took the bait and traded for Jennings in exchange for Brandon Knight and afterthought throw in Khris Middleton.

Detroit - Oops. Double oops since Knight or (not and) Middleton would have been an awful trade. Giving up both for dumpster Jennings was a colossal mistake. It was further compounded by the Josh Smith fiasco. Which preceded letting top 10 pick Greg Monroe walk for nothing. But hey, 8 other franchises passed on Drummond so suddenly they're geniuses.

Back to the Bucks - After their marginal 2013 season and Monta and Jennings out the door, the rocket scientists in Milwaukee found themselves selecting 15th in the NBA draft. Keep in mind this is the franchise that traded Dirk for Tractor Traylor, selected Joe Alexander with a top 10 pick, and drafted the Chair Master himself Yi Jianlian. With that checkered history they drafted an unknown Freaky Greek player. Management stated it was worth the risk because they could let Giannis develop surrounded by their exisiting frontcourt stability. Three months later Larry Sanders signed his $44 million contract. Brilliant.

[JMAC3]

However, Cho has done well in trades and contract negotiations.

Kemba is on a good deal.
Lance for Hawes and Barnes.
Flipping Barnes into Luke Ridnour and then Ridnour into Jeremy Lamb.
Then signing Lamb for that deal look genius before his value goes up.
MKG signed a good deal.
Trade with Detroit for Ben Gordon that got us Corey Maggette and Noah Vonleh.
The trade that we sent Stephen Jackson and 19th pick for 7th pick- Bismack Biyombo .
Trade for Batum looks good.
The trade that landed us McRoberts was good. (matt carroll for Hakeem Warrick and then Warrick for McRoberts).
Then we did not resign him and he looks done.
The low risk trade for Mullens was decent considering we only gave up a second rounder.
Found us Steve Clifford.

Also, signed Big Al, Marvin Williams, Jeremy Lin, Brian Roberts and Tyler Hansbrough.

I think overall he has done a good job considering the circumstances as they arrive. All this without jeopardizing the future.

Look at Sam Presti... great drafter, but has traded away James Harden for 1 year of Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, who never played, and a decent big in Steven Adams. Also, traded Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins corpse. Traded Reggie Jackson. Gave a huge contract to a backup big in Kanter who is worse on defense than Big Al. How do you not win a championship when you get that lucky in the draft.....

[Mystical Apples]

If drafting was everything we'd be celebrating 3-time executive of the year, Isiah Thomas.

[Eoghan]

I can't get past the premise drafting is the big problem with Al Jefferson on the roster.

Charlotte basically got Al Jefferson b/c Cho's OKC Model draft picks weren't paying quick enough dividends for MJ. It all leads back to Cho's drafting.

Before last summer who does Cho tell off anyways? It could've applied to Polk, Higgins, or Jordan. Or possibly Higgins had to tell Polk. Or Clifford had to ask Higgins to pass along to Polk who relayed it to Michael via various friends and family members.

So confusing. Someone should compile a flow chart.

Exactly the point. If Cho is immune to criticism b/c of the muddled FO, he shouldn't get credit for anything he does right then, either. Maybe Polk, Higgins, or Jordan have been the brains behind the trades and budgeting and Cho is just their Asian fall guy in case it goes tits up. Who knows?

[Braggins]

If we took Drummond he would still be sitting on the bench behind Al and people would be laughing at us for taking the most obvious bust in the draft #2 overall when we already had a "starting" center.

I'm guessing this has been said already, but we need to first determine how much of a factor our seemingly terribly player development has in all this before assigning all the blame to Cho.