Official Draft Thread 2015-16

[jmr07019]

^ also if Skal labisierre is the top guy on board they will look to trade

[Curmudgeon]

Well none of us want Philly to get Simmons but Simmons Okafor Noel is just an awful awful fit. Would open the door for a Brooklyn pick for Noel trade

Why would Ainge trade a Brooklyn pick for Noel? He stinks offensively and a few blocked shots don 't make up for it.

[jmr07019]

Well none of us want Philly to get Simmons but Simmons Okafor Noel is just an awful awful fit. Would open the door for a Brooklyn pick for Noel trade

Why would Ainge trade a Brooklyn pick for Noel? He stinks offensively and a few blocked shots don 't make up for it.

If he's better than the players remaining on board and/or he complements our current players better.

[Curmudgeon]

Well none of us want Philly to get Simmons but Simmons Okafor Noel is just an awful awful fit. Would open the door for a Brooklyn pick for Noel trade

Why would Ainge trade a Brooklyn pick for Noel? He stinks offensively and a few blocked shots don 't make up for it.

If he's better than the players remaining on board and/or he complements our current players better.

Neither one of those things is likely to be true unless Brooklyn falls out of the 10 worst teams.

[peachbucket]

Why would Ainge trade a Brooklyn pick for Noel? He stinks offensively and a few blocked shots don 't make up for it.

If he's better than the players remaining on board and/or he complements our current players better.

Neither one of those things is likely to be true unless Brooklyn falls out of the 10 worst teams.

Agreed. Even though he is only 21 he is pretty much near his ceiling and is not a very good player. I personally think Jordan Mickey will be better.

[jmr07019]

^ I'd disagree with you two. Noel is a center and playing him at PF next to a non jump shooting big is a recipe for failure. Putting 3 d leaguers at pg SG and SF is also suppressing his numbers. He's never going to be particularly good on offense but he's not as bad as he looks right now. He can be the best defensive center in the league and that's a very valuable player.

Regarding the guys in the draft, I haven't looked into the guys enough to name names, but history tells us there is a chance of selecting a bust in the 6-10 range. Not sure if that number is 20% or 60% but it is a non trivial number. On top of that the guys who aren't busts aren't guaranteed to better than Noel or a good fit on our team.

[soxfan2003]

I'm not saying he will ever be great but Noel's potential and even current game is being underrated here. He is just put in an unfair position since Philly wants to provide minutes to both him and Okafor. Perkins was not that talented offensively but for a couple of years when the Celtics had talent and he was placed in the right position for him, he actually was efficient in a limited role offensively.

Asking Noel to play PF on offense with Okafor is sort of equivalent to asking Perkins to play with Okafor and not much talent on the rest of the team. Of course, he will look terrible on offense and show regression compared to his rookie year. For Noel to work well with a low post center, Noel obviously has to get an excellent jumper and not many would have predicted that for him out of college.

The Philly coach has said that he is trying to thinking up schemes/positioning on the court where they can play together but my bet is those two never play that well together on the offensive end.

[peachbucket]

^ I'd disagree with you two. Noel is a center and playing him at PF next to a non jump shooting big is a recipe for failure. Putting 3 d leaguers at pg SG and SF is also suppressing his numbers. He's never going to be particularly good on offense but he's not as bad as he looks right now. He can be the best defensive center in the league and that's a very valuable player.

Regarding the guys in the draft, I haven't looked into the guys enough to name names, but history tells us there is a chance of selecting a bust in the 6-10 range. Not sure if that number is 20% or 60% but it is a non trivial number. On top of that the guys who aren't busts aren't guaranteed to better than Noel or a good fit on our team.

I think he is overrated. I definitely disagree about him having the potential to be the best defensive center in the league. He is a below average rebounder for the power forward position and is one of the worst rebounders for a starting center...and that is on a team that misses a ton of shots. He can block some shots and has a nice steals rate due to his activity level but he his slight frame and lack of strength limits his defensive effectiveness against strong centers.

On the other side of the ball he is a complete catastrophe. He has a broken jumpshot (even inside of 15 feet), has terrible hands, and is one of the most awkward and least fluid players I have ever seen in the NBA. I watch plenty of the Sixers games and believe me his horrific offensive numbers aren't because he's getting double teamed. If anything, on a decent team he wouldn't be allowed to shoot except for putbacks which would drop his average to 6 points a game. Ordinarily, I wouldn't be so pessimistic about a 21 year olds chances to improve an aspect of their game but i really believe his offensive game is a lost cause.

[Gomes3PC]

Noel has regressed over time in Philly. He actually had a decent handle for his size and a workable 12-15 foot jumper coming out of college, but they've done an awful job developing him. Right now he's a rich man's Ryan Hollins - a guy who runs around frantically, causes some chaos defensively, but does nothing on offense and hurts you on the glass despite his length.

[jmr07019]

^ I'd disagree with you two. Noel is a center and playing him at PF next to a non jump shooting big is a recipe for failure. Putting 3 d leaguers at pg SG and SF is also suppressing his numbers. He's never going to be particularly good on offense but he's not as bad as he looks right now. He can be the best defensive center in the league and that's a very valuable player.

Regarding the guys in the draft, I haven't looked into the guys enough to name names, but history tells us there is a chance of selecting a bust in the 6-10 range. Not sure if that number is 20% or 60% but it is a non trivial number. On top of that the guys who aren't busts aren't guaranteed to better than Noel or a good fit on our team.

I think he is overrated. I definitely disagree about him having the potential to be the best defensive center in the league. He is a below average rebounder for the power forward position and is one of the worst rebounders for a starting center...and that is on a team that misses a ton of shots. He can block some shots and has a nice steals rate due to his activity level but he his slight frame and lack of strength limits his defensive effectiveness against strong centers.

On the other side of the ball he is a complete catastrophe. He has a broken jumpshot (even inside of 15 feet), has terrible hands, and is one of the most awkward and least fluid players I have ever seen in the NBA. I watch plenty of the Sixers games and believe me his horrific offensive numbers aren't because he's getting double teamed. If anything, on a decent team he wouldn't be allowed to shoot except for putbacks which would drop his average to 6 points a game. Ordinarily, I wouldn't be so pessimistic about a 21 year olds chances to improve an aspect of their game but i really believe his offensive game is a lost cause.

You are wrong about his rebounding. His defensive rebounding % is 21% the last 2 years (ages 20-21) which is pretty average for a center and good for a PF. I don't know the exact stats but I would say 19--22 is average for a center. Sullinger has been between 20 and 22 his first 3 years (ages 20-22) before taking a big jump up to 28.4% this year (age 23). KG was at 20 and 22% at ages 21 and 22 before making a big year at age 23. KG is at 26% for his career. Olynyk who is a bad rebounder for a center is at 16.5% the last 2 years. Al Horford is at 23% for his career. Joakim Noah is at 23% for his career. Pau Gasol is 21% for his career. Dwight Howard is 29% for his career.

[pfm]

Noel is awesome defensively at C. His 4.2 defensive win shares last year tied him for 10th in the league. That's incredible for a rookie. As jmr pointed out, he's also fine as a rebounder. Offensively he's raw, but he's show some signs of a jumper.

I honestly think he's a very good young player, with the makings of an elite defensive C. He's ridiculously quick for a C, which allows him to cover a ton of ground inside, help quickly, get steals (quick hands), and block shots (quick leaper).

IMO, the issue this year is that he's a C and pairing him next to Okafor is a terrible fit for him. I think he's a C because he's best inside on both ends. The issue is, Okafor is the same in that sense and Okafor is terrible defensively on top of that.

His limitations prevent him from becoming a star, but I think he can be a game changing interior defender and we all know how valuable that can be to a team. I'm not proposing that we deal for him, more just saying that he doesn't suck.

[shawn unkempt]

Noel has regressed over time in Philly. He actually had a decent handle for his size and a workable 12-15 foot jumper coming out of college, but they've done an awful job developing him. Right now he's a rich man's Ryan Hollins - a guy who runs around frantically, causes some chaos defensively, but does nothing on offense and hurts you on the glass despite his length.

He didn't shoot a single jump shot at Kentucky, I don't have any idea how you can say that he had a decent jumper. His biggest problem is his hands, he drops a ton of easy passes and rebounds.

[KGboss]

Noel is awesome defensively at C. His 4.2 defensive win shares last year tied him for 10th in the league. That's incredible for a rookie. As jmr pointed out, he's also fine as a rebounder. Offensively he's raw, but he's show some signs of a jumper.

I honestly think he's a very good young player, with the makings of an elite defensive C. He's ridiculously quick for a C, which allows him to cover a ton of ground inside, help quickly, get steals (quick hands), and block shots (quick leaper).

IMO, the issue this year is that he's a C and pairing him next to Okafor is a terrible fit for him. I think he's a C because he's best inside on both ends. The issue is, Okafor is the same in that sense and Okafor is terrible defensively on top of that.

His limitations prevent him from becoming a star, but I think he can be a game changing interior defender and we all know how valuable that can be to a team. I'm not proposing that we deal for him, more just saying that he doesn't suck.

I would deal for Noel in a heartbeat but I don't want to give up Smart to do it is my issue. Now may do it for a package of Olynyk, Young and 2 or 3 first round picks....just not the brooklyn picks. I don't think Philly does that deal tho or will look to deal anyone until Embiid comes back healthy and looks better than Noel or Okafor. Can't have 3 potential stars playing the same position on 1 team

[truth18]

Noel is awesome defensively at C. His 4.2 defensive win shares last year tied him for 10th in the league. That's incredible for a rookie. As jmr pointed out, he's also fine as a rebounder. Offensively he's raw, but he's show some signs of a jumper.

I honestly think he's a very good young player, with the makings of an elite defensive C. He's ridiculously quick for a C, which allows him to cover a ton of ground inside, help quickly, get steals (quick hands), and block shots (quick leaper).

IMO, the issue this year is that he's a C and pairing him next to Okafor is a terrible fit for him. I think he's a C because he's best inside on both ends. The issue is, Okafor is the same in that sense and Okafor is terrible defensively on top of that.

His limitations prevent him from becoming a star, but I think he can be a game changing interior defender and we all know how valuable that can be to a team. I'm not proposing that we deal for him, more just saying that he doesn't suck.

Agree with all of this. He's also a hometown guy, and I'm rooting hard for him because of that. Not too many NE-born NBA stars through the years.

[Edug27]

Noel would make a great fit here. Not sure what Philly and their new master minds would even want for him though. Might as well wait til his deal is up.

[pfm]

I would deal for Noel in a heartbeat but I don't want to give up Smart to do it is my issue. Now may do it for a package of Olynyk, Young and 2 or 3 first round picks....just not the brooklyn picks. I don't think Philly does that deal tho or will look to deal anyone until Embiid comes back healthy and looks better than Noel or Okafor. Can't have 3 potential stars playing the same position on 1 team

I'd love him on this team (for the reasons I named), but the issue with dealing for him would be A) cost and B) Is a defensively oriented player someone we want to spend significant assets on?

Probably not at this point. We'd obviously all welcome a young defensive stud C, but I'm not sure if that's the top priority at this point. Who knows though.

[165bows]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Mike_Schmitz/status/674345298920128512[/tweet]

Anyone with any insight into this kid? Has some talent looks like.

Have to put down my criteria for the tall skinny guys.

Basically, in order it looks like for me:

Blocks shots
(basic criteria for the category)

can catch and finish
(these two abilities only turns into Brandan Wright-type)

Defends the perimeter usefully
(starting to get somewhere)

Rebounds Defensively
(toughest skill to add in the group, sort of a make or break if the guy has real value)

Defends the post (similar to defensive rebounding, doesn't often come in the package)

Shooting (not common)

Not horribly turnover prone

Passing (pretty rare)

Offensive rebounds
(usually strong ability here, and not hugely valuable without the others in terms of prospect value.)

[ddb]

Noel has regressed over time in Philly. He actually had a decent handle for his size and a workable 12-15 foot jumper coming out of college, but they've done an awful job developing him. Right now he's a rich man's Ryan Hollins - a guy who runs around frantically, causes some chaos defensively, but does nothing on offense and hurts you on the glass despite his length.

He didn't shoot a single jump shot at Kentucky, I don't have any idea how you can say that he had a decent jumper. His biggest problem is his hands, he drops a ton of easy passes and rebounds.

I'm not a big Noel fan. Especially for what it would likely cost. No thanks.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

If the Nets pick falls outside the top 4, and Murray and Dunn are still on the board, then I take one of those guys and offer up Smart for Noel.

[peachbucket]

^ I'd disagree with you two. Noel is a center and playing him at PF next to a non jump shooting big is a recipe for failure. Putting 3 d leaguers at pg SG and SF is also suppressing his numbers. He's never going to be particularly good on offense but he's not as bad as he looks right now. He can be the best defensive center in the league and that's a very valuable player.

Regarding the guys in the draft, I haven't looked into the guys enough to name names, but history tells us there is a chance of selecting a bust in the 6-10 range. Not sure if that number is 20% or 60% but it is a non trivial number. On top of that the guys who aren't busts aren't guaranteed to better than Noel or a good fit on our team.

I think he is overrated. I definitely disagree about him having the potential to be the best defensive center in the league. He is a below average rebounder for the power forward position and is one of the worst rebounders for a starting center...and that is on a team that misses a ton of shots. He can block some shots and has a nice steals rate due to his activity level but he his slight frame and lack of strength limits his defensive effectiveness against strong centers.

On the other side of the ball he is a complete catastrophe. He has a broken jumpshot (even inside of 15 feet), has terrible hands, and is one of the most awkward and least fluid players I have ever seen in the NBA. I watch plenty of the Sixers games and believe me his horrific offensive numbers aren't because he's getting double teamed. If anything, on a decent team he wouldn't be allowed to shoot except for putbacks which would drop his average to 6 points a game. Ordinarily, I wouldn't be so pessimistic about a 21 year olds chances to improve an aspect of their game but i really believe his offensive game is a lost cause.

You are wrong about his rebounding. His defensive rebounding % is 21% the last 2 years (ages 20-21) which is pretty average for a center and good for a PF. I don't know the exact stats but I would say 19--22 is average for a center. Sullinger has been between 20 and 22 his first 3 years (ages 20-22) before taking a big jump up to 28.4% this year (age 23). KG was at 20 and 22% at ages 21 and 22 before making a big year at age 23. KG is at 26% for his career. Olynyk who is a bad rebounder for a center is at 16.5% the last 2 years. Al Horford is at 23% for his career. Joakim Noah is at 23% for his career. Pau Gasol is 21% for his career. Dwight Howard is 29% for his career.

Thx for the advanced stats...I just took a look at his rebounding per 48 which was 12.4 this year which was good for only 60th best. I guess he is better on the boards than I'm giving him credit for. Nevertheless, I am not sure his defense will ever outweigh his offensive deficiencies especially for a Brad Stevens type offense. Like I said, i think Mickey has the potential to be the more valuable player for our offense so I wouldn't be so quick to trade for him.

Supposedly Ainge offered up Smart and #16 for Noel and #3 (assuming Okafor was the target) on draft day and was rebuked by Philly.