Official Trade Thread - Part XXIX

[Dark Faze]

Beals usage is the highest its ever been paired with the highest TS he's ever had. He's improving. Its not showing in ORTG, but when you look at his percentages--44/45% FG and 40% 3PFG for 20ppg--what else could you want from a 2nd or 3rd option guy? Again, alongside a 1A player, he's much more difficult to replace.

He and Klay might as well be the same player with the way they are playing this year--one team hasn't lost and the other team is 8-10.

We need better pieces surrounding our backcourt.

[nate33]

Beals usage is the highest its ever been paired with the highest TS he's ever had. He's improving. Its not showing in ORTG, but when you look at his percentages--44/45% FG and 40% 3PFG for 20ppg--what else could you want from a 2nd or 3rd option guy? Again, alongside a 1A player, he's much more difficult to replace.

He and Klay might as well be the same player with the way they are playing this year--one team hasn't lost and the other team is 8-10.

We need better pieces surrounding our backcourt.

I don't think you can disassociate Beal's TS% from his ORtg. Part of the reason his TS% is better is because he is getting to the basket more, but that's also part of the reason he is turning the ball over more (which shows up in his ORtg).

You can say that Beal has maintained a roughly equal efficiency to last year despite an increased usage rate, but I'd say it's inaccurate to describe him as improving in both usage rate and efficiency simultaneously.

The other issue we can't overlook is that the efficiency he has maintained is unacceptably low. You really don't want a guy with a 25ish USG% to have a sub-104 ORtg. Beal's ORtg is currently 101 and he has never in his career broken the 103 mark.

[nate33]

Wizards would be wise to consider Josh Smith.

I would.

Nene and the guy who Randy Wittman hates...

Josh Smith is an interesting idea. In terms of basketball skill, he really addresses what we lack. He can provide defense at the 4, and he can run the floor. He has shown some flashes of being a passable 3PT shooter, but the moments have been fleeting. I'd be much more excited about him if he was shooting the 32% 3P% he shot in Houston, not the 26% he shot with Detroit and now in LA.

CCJ, you gotta admit that mcqueen has a point about Smith being a "cancer". Teams have moved heaven and earth just to get rid of him, and his on/off differentials have been horrific except for his stint in Houston.

If we wanted to acquire him, I'd have to have some assurance that we could get Houston Smith and not Detroit Smith or LA Smith. I don't know how to determine that. Did he have friends in Houston? Did he have a real good relationship with McHale? Was it because he was playing with Howard? What was it that made him play decently in Houston and can it be replicated?

Have you looked at Smith's offensive efficiency the past few seasons? The last time he approached average was 2010-11. He's now into his 4th consecutive season with an ortg below 100 and a usage rate above 20.

His efficiency is frighteningly bad for the most part, but his brief stint in Houston, it was merely "bad" at a Seraphinesque level. He also had a good DRtg and a good on/off differential for them, so I'd say he was reasonably effective - at least for a minimum salary guy coming off the bench. If we could get that guy, and give up nothing in the process, it could potentially help us.

But don't worry, I'm not in favor of going after him. I think it is highly unlikely that we get the Houston guy. I think we'd get the Detroit or LA guy, and that guy is awful.

[Dark Faze]

Beals usage is the highest its ever been paired with the highest TS he's ever had. He's improving. Its not showing in ORTG, but when you look at his percentages--44/45% FG and 40% 3PFG for 20ppg--what else could you want from a 2nd or 3rd option guy? Again, alongside a 1A player, he's much more difficult to replace.

He and Klay might as well be the same player with the way they are playing this year--one team hasn't lost and the other team is 8-10.

We need better pieces surrounding our backcourt.

I don't think you can disassociate Beal's TS% from his ORtg. Part of the reason his TS% is better is because he is getting to the basket more, but that's also part of the reason he is turning the ball over more (which shows up in his ORtg).

You can say that Beal has maintained a roughly equal efficiency to last year despite an increased usage rate, but I'd say it's inaccurate to describe him as improving in both usage rate and efficiency simultaneously.

The other issue we can't overlook is that the efficiency he has maintained is unacceptably low. You really don't want a guy with a 25ish USG% to have a sub-104 ORtg. Beal's ORtg is currently 101 and he has never in his career broken the 103 mark.

Truth told, I've lost confidence in ORTG as a metric. I think it matters to a degree--99/100 ORTG's tend to pair well with the eye test, but not all turnovers are equal. A good FG percentage is going to mean a lot more to me than an ORTG stat. Brad Beal has a PER of 15.86 right now compared to CJ Miles' 17.16 for example--and Beal has the better assist to turnover rate, while their other shooting percentages are incredibly similar except that Brad is doing it on much higher usage--so what makes up that difference?

[Sluggerface]

Beals usage is the highest its ever been paired with the highest TS he's ever had. He's improving. Its not showing in ORTG, but when you look at his percentages--44/45% FG and 40% 3PFG for 20ppg--what else could you want from a 2nd or 3rd option guy? Again, alongside a 1A player, he's much more difficult to replace.

He and Klay might as well be the same player with the way they are playing this year--one team hasn't lost and the other team is 8-10.

We need better pieces surrounding our backcourt.

I don't think you can disassociate Beal's TS% from his ORtg. Part of the reason his TS% is better is because he is getting to the basket more, but that's also part of the reason he is turning the ball over more (which shows up in his ORtg).

You can say that Beal has maintained a roughly equal efficiency to last year despite an increased usage rate, but I'd say it's inaccurate to describe him as improving in both usage rate and efficiency simultaneously.

The other issue we can't overlook is that the efficiency he has maintained is unacceptably low. You really don't want a guy with a 25ish USG% to have a sub-104 ORtg. Beal's ORtg is currently 101 and he has never in his career broken the 103 mark.

Truth told, I've lost confidence in ORTG as a metric. I think it matters to a degree--99/100 ORTG's tend to pair well with the eye test, but not all turnovers are equal. A good FG percentage is going to mean a lot more to me than an ORTG stat. Brad Beal has a PER of 15.86 right now compared to CJ Miles' 17.16 for example--and Beal has the better assist to turnover rate, while their other shooting percentages are incredibly similar except that Brad is doing it on much higher usage--so what makes up that difference?

ORTG will divide credit on a possession based on whether or not the possession is coming off an assist and/or is the recipient of an offensive rebound. Guys can have decent offensive ratings even if they're not great shooters, likewise a good shooter can be limited if the majority of their shots are assisted and they don't provide you much in terms of ball security/rebounding.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Beals usage is the highest its ever been paired with the highest TS he's ever had. He's improving. Its not showing in ORTG, but when you look at his percentages--44/45% FG and 40% 3PFG for 20ppg--what else could you want from a 2nd or 3rd option guy? Again, alongside a 1A player, he's much more difficult to replace.

He and Klay might as well be the same player with the way they are playing this year--one team hasn't lost and the other team is 8-10.

We need better pieces surrounding our backcourt.

I don't think you can disassociate Beal's TS% from his ORtg. Part of the reason his TS% is better is because he is getting to the basket more, but that's also part of the reason he is turning the ball over more (which shows up in his ORtg).

You can say that Beal has maintained a roughly equal efficiency to last year despite an increased usage rate, but I'd say it's inaccurate to describe him as improving in both usage rate and efficiency simultaneously.

The other issue we can't overlook is that the efficiency he has maintained is unacceptably low. You really don't want a guy with a 25ish USG% to have a sub-104 ORtg. Beal's ORtg is currently 101 and he has never in his career broken the 103 mark.

Truth told, I've lost confidence in ORTG as a metric. I think it matters to a degree--99/100 ORTG's tend to pair well with the eye test, but not all turnovers are equal. A good FG percentage is going to mean a lot more to me than an ORTG stat. Brad Beal has a PER of 15.86 right now compared to CJ Miles' 17.16 for example--and Beal has the better assist to turnover rate, while their other shooting percentages are incredibly similar except that Brad is doing it on much higher usage--so what makes up that difference?

When you look at PER, keep in mind that it rewards players for taking shots even at very poor efficiency. I forget the exact break-even point in PER, but it's something like 27-28%. In other words, according to PER, the act of shooting -- even while making just 3-in-10 boosts a player's rating/value. So, PER is actually INFLATING Beal's value because Beal shoots more often than Miles does.

When I look at my spreadsheet (which I haven't updated in a couple days, so it's a little bit out of date), the gap is more pronounced. In PPA, where average = 100, Beal rated a 96; Miles a 152. This despite Beal getting more rebounds and assists, and fouling less. Why Miles is more productive this season: better shooting and fewer turnovers.

As for preferring FG% to ortg, it's kinda like saying you prefer a sun dial to a clock.

[Dark Faze]

Thing is--I've checked Beals PER numerous times in the season--even when at its height when his shooting was better or at least the same as Miles--around when he was at 45% 3PFG, near 50% FG, and I don't think his PER was ever that high.

And Brad has a better assist to turnover ratio. Even if he's turning it over more--he's assisting more. So I just have to kind of roll my eyes at stuff like ORTG sometimes.

On another note--Pels rumored to want to move Ryan Anderson for Markieff Morris..who is having a poor season. Strange.

[verbal8]

Yeah so.... this suggestion is going to be really popular around here.. Josh Smith, anyone?

Apparently on the trade block following a shouting match with his former head coach Mike Woodson.

It would be a little risky for chemistry, but he can't be much worse than the current bench bigs with the Wizards.

[nuposse04]

Smith might have some utility in our small ball line up... Drew Gooden hasn't played much but it hasn't been promising. Trading for Smith would be in the hopes that he plays like he did with his Rockets stint... which wasn't awesome either... He hasn't been "good" since 2011... :/

[Dat2U]

Thing is--I've checked Beals PER numerous times in the season--even when at its height when his shooting was better or at least the same as Miles--around when he was at 45% 3PFG, near 50% FG, and I don't think his PER was ever that high.

And Brad has a better assist to turnover ratio. Even if he's turning it over more--he's assisting more. So I just have to kind of roll my eyes at stuff like ORTG sometimes.

On another note--Pels rumored to want to move Ryan Anderson for Markieff Morris..who is having a poor season. Strange.

I used to love Ryan Anderson but man he's become a nightmare defensively. Were talking Antawn Jamison level bad here. I don't know if you can overlook it despite his offensive contributions.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wizards would be wise to consider Josh Smith.

I would.

Nene and the guy who Randy Wittman hates...

Consider? Sure. Just so long as the conclusion is "nah." He's been horribly inefficient and a net negative on the court. I'd pass on Smith.

Truly why I said "consider".

Too funny, Kev.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Thing is--I've checked Beals PER numerous times in the season--even when at its height when his shooting was better or at least the same as Miles--around when he was at 45% 3PFG, near 50% FG, and I don't think his PER was ever that high.

And Brad has a better assist to turnover ratio. Even if he's turning it over more--he's assisting more. So I just have to kind of roll my eyes at stuff like ORTG sometimes.

On another note--Pels rumored to want to move Ryan Anderson for Markieff Morris..who is having a poor season. Strange.

I used to love Ryan Anderson but man he's become a nightmare defensively. Were talking Antawn Jamison level bad here. I don't know if you can overlook it despite his offensive contributions.

I'm still swept away by Bill Russell's book about players on his Celtics.

Guys were for the most part specialists, not generalists. Like parts of the body each player had his own functional area of expertise. They just were exemplary at their particular one trick.


I will take any player who fills disparate needs.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wizards would be wise to consider Josh Smith.

I would.

Nene and the guy who Randy Wittman hates...

Josh Smith is an interesting idea. In terms of basketball skill, he really addresses what we lack. He can provide defense at the 4, and he can run the floor. He has shown some flashes of being a passable 3PT shooter, but the moments have been fleeting. I'd be much more excited about him if he was shooting the 32% 3P% he shot in Houston, not the 26% he shot with Detroit and now in LA.

CCJ, you gotta admit that mcqueen has a point about Smith being a "cancer". Teams have moved heaven and earth just to get rid of him, and his on/off differentials have been horrific except for his stint in Houston.

If we wanted to acquire him, I'd have to have some assurance that we could get Houston Smith and not Detroit Smith or LA Smith. I don't know how to determine that. Did he have friends in Houston? Did he have a real good relationship with McHale? Was it because he was playing with Howard? What was it that made him play decently in Houston and can it be replicated?

No time to wax poetic but IIRC Steve was referring to Boogie Cousins re. Cancer.

[Dark Faze]

another head scratching ORTG difference:

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6588/evan-fournier
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6580/bradley-beal
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/fournev01.html


Fournier- 110 ORTG
Beal - 101 ORTG

Evan - 16 ppg, 2.4 apg on 45/39/81 on 2.9 FTA and 1.6 TOV
Brad - 20 ppg, 3.3 apg on 44/41/77 on 3.5 FTA and 2.8 TOV

difference between 110 ortg and 101 ortg is night and day but the core stats don't suggest it. I'm about to lose faith in the stat completely unless someone can tell me whats going on

[Dark Faze]

might have just found my answer--doesn't take into account assists or field goal percentages at all. also negatively impacted by offensive rebounds.

[nate33]

might have just found my answer--doesn't take into account assists or field goal percentages at all. also negatively impacted by offensive rebounds.

It absolutely does account for FG% and assists, and offensive rebounds are a positive factor. You must have been looking at team ORtg. The formula for individual ORtg is here:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

Fournier looks better than Beal because turnovers hurt a lot more than assists help.

[bondom34]

Depends which O rating you're using. NBA.com's is different from bbr and calculated differently. NBA's is just points/100 when a player is on court, regardless of involvement.

[stevemcqueen1]

What the Hell kind of sense does it make for New Orleans to trade Ryan Anderson and bring in Markieff Morris? I'm going to assume that rumor isn't true.

I would LOVE to take Ryan Anderson off their hands.

[Sluggerface]

another head scratching ORTG difference:

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6588/evan-fournier
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6580/bradley-beal
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/fournev01.html


Fournier- 110 ORTG
Beal - 101 ORTG

Evan - 16 ppg, 2.4 apg on 45/39/81 on 2.9 FTA and 1.6 TOV
Brad - 20 ppg, 3.3 apg on 44/41/77 on 3.5 FTA and 2.8 TOV

difference between 110 ortg and 101 ortg is night and day but the core stats don't suggest it. I'm about to lose faith in the stat completely unless someone can tell me whats going on

I already gave you a rough overview of what's going on in ortg. Nate posted a link as well and stated the correct assumption that turnovers hurt more than assists help.

Evan is shooting the ball at a better efficiency, is turning the ball over at a far lesser clip, and a lot of his field goals are unassisted (only 40% of his two point field goals are assisted). He's doing all of that while exhibiting extremely good shot selection (Over 70% of his shots are either at the rim or from 3). With Wall/Beal we've typically been accustomed to a 33/33/33 split between rim/bad shots/threes.

Edit: Not saying shot selection plays a factor in the equation. Just pointing out that Fournier's is excellent.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Depends which O rating you're using. NBA.com's is different from bbr and calculated differently. NBA's is just points/100 when a player is on court, regardless of involvement.

Which is maddening because of its meaninglessness.