What's wrong with the Hawks?

[atlantabbq99]

It has been a rough start. From watching the game, the ball movement seems about the same and the defense intensity also looks about the same. I was looking at the number and everything is about the same. Assist per game, FG per game, FG%.

The biggest difference from this year and last year has been the big dip in 3pt shooting.

Last year the Hawks shot .380 from three, and this year they are shooting .350

The two identifiers for the Hawks last year was elite ball movement and elite 3pt shooting. Ball movement is still their, but 3pt shooting has gone away.

Last year the Warriors shot .398 from three, and this year they are shooting .440 from three.

Warriors are really showing that in the new NBA, you win with 3s. Hawks might not have Klay and Curry but the Hawks need to get back to that elite status for 3pt shooting.

Everybody on the Hawks has a decent 3pt average, except for Dennis and Millsap, who are way down in their average. Millsap also got to a slow start last year, hopefully he starts to turn it up. Dennis has also had a slow start, the Hawks need to stick with Dennis, but if he doesn't turn it around sooner as of later, then maybe more minutes should go to Mack and maybe he can provide more consistent 3pt shooting when Teague goes out, until Dennis gets his rhythm back.

[Jamaaliver]

I was gonna start a thread about the status of the Hawks through the first 1/4 of the season. With atlBBQ's permission...I'll include that topic in this thread:

From the increasingly impressive Buddy Grizzard over at HawksHoop:

• The Hawks played 20 games before the first of December. The compressed schedule resulted in the Hawks playing five more games over that stretch than several Eastern Conference rivals.
  
• Atlanta hasn’t had the same luck with injuries as last season.
  
• Paul Millsap is having a career year. After his second All-Star appearance, Millsap finished last season with a Player Efficiency Rating of 20. This season, Millsap is on pace to post a career-best PER of 23.4 which ranks 14th in the NBA.
  
• Al Horford’s points, rebounds and blocks are all slightly up from last year. However, he’s shooting just 49.1% from the field compared to a career average of 53.8%. However, Horford has already attempted more 3-pointers this season (72) than during the first eight seasons of his career combined (65). He’s shooting 36.1% from three, which is well above his career average of 34.3%.
  
• After a pair of offseason surgeries, Kyle Korver is off to a slow start this season. His scoring and assists are down and he’s on pace to have his worst season from 3-point range since 2010-11. His 42.9% 3-point shooting leads the team but is well off the league-best 49.2% he shot last season. Despite his struggles, the Hawks are outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions with Korver on the court, the second-best net rating on the team

I'm thinking that very daunting schedule not allowing much practice or rest took its toll early. Combined with KK's recovery, Teague and Bazemore ankles injuries, Dennis's erratic play....

Hawks v Mavs should be the best litmus test for what we're capable of seeing how rested and prepped we'll be.

[ATL Boy]

I won't panic yet, we've had a really difficult schedule in terms of ubiquity of games this season: already having had to play out two stretches of four games in five days (the most any team is allowed to play in a season), and reaching 21 games quicker than any other team this season.

We just had five days off and I'm expecting us to come out like word beaters against the Mavs tonight.

Not only that, but we're just 1 game back of first place in the east right now. I still expect us to finish top 3 in the conference.


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[New_Hawks_Era]

3 pt shooting has dipped a bit wth Korver even though duplication from what he started like last season would be like hitting the Cash 5 two times in a week. DeMarre's defection hurts a bit cause his slashing to the bucket is missing. Although Bazemore has played impressing enough to offset some what. Injuries, schedule has been daunting and I don't think the passing has been as dynamic as last season imo. Dennis has struggled and our expectations have all been raised, contributing to this question of what's wrong.

[azuresou1]

My diagnosis:

- Objectively, Al and Paul are spending way too much time out on the perimeter. We RARELY run PnR around the FT line anymore, and that used to be where we did a lot of our damage in the form of Al midrange jumpers or Paul triple threat drives. Now they're out by the 3 and primarily look to pass on the catch

- Al is playing much softer in general on both ends.

- The team as a whole except for Korver and Baze do not look to score. They are giving opposing teams time to close out by hesitating, whereas if they simply catch and shoot/drive, many more lanes will open up.

In general, this team just doesn't look like it has the fire or the confidence to be elite. We were better as an underdog team when everyone thought we were a .500 team. Now that the team's had success, they've lost the passion.

[Jamaaliver]

Objectively, Al and Paul are spending way too much time out on the perimeter. We RARELY run PnR around the FT line anymore, and that used to be where we did a lot of our damage in the form of Al midrange jumpers or Paul triple threat drives. Now they're out by the 3 and primarily look to pass on the catch

Bingo! This is a huge part of it offensively. We seemed to have moved away from strong inside play from our bigs.

The team as a whole except for Korver and Baze do not look to score. They are giving opposing teams time to close out by hesitating, whereas if they simply catch and shoot/drive, many more lanes will open up.

Again. Great analysis. I'm thinking this team needs an alpha dog offensively who literally wants the ball at key moments. THJ was supposed to be that option. We really need a strong wing scorer on this team capable of taking over games when necessary.

In general, this team just doesn't look like it has the fire or the confidence to be elite. We were better as an underdog team when everyone thought we were a .500 team. Now that the team's had success, they've lost the passion.

Buddy Grizzard over at HawksHoop speculates that perhaps all the controversy the team faced last year helped motivate the team to move past the adversity. And minus that uniting factor, th eteam just doesn't have the same fire:

The Atlanta Hawks made history last season. In the wake of the crippling embarrassment caused by a racially-tinged controversy, Atlanta’s players decided to make it about basketball. They won a franchise-record 60 games and reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since the franchise moved to Atlanta in 1968....

With the Hawks stumbling through the first quarter of the season, it’s fair to ask if the team is missing the sort of us-against-the-world unity it displayed last season.

[ATL Boy]

East is so wide open right now, we went from tied for second to eighth with that one loss to OKC (still 1.5 games back of first). Following the Spurs game, I expect us to rack up wins with our next 7 (MIA, PHI, @BOS, @ORL, POR, DET, NYK). Go 5-2 or 6-1 in that stretch (we really should, against those teams) and we'll be second or maybe even first.

[azuresou1]

Honestly, this team has looked extremely pedestrian since last year All Star break. Seems like that was the honeymoon period - now it's just going through the grind

[Jamaaliver]

Sekou Smith's take on the Hawks through the quarter pole:

What went right: [Keeping] Paul Millsap is paying off handsomely. He leads the Hawks in points, rebounds, steals and remains their best frontcourt defender. All-Star point guard Jeff Teague has had his moments when he's been unstoppable.

What went wrong: Tiago Splitter hasn't been healthy enough to be the physical presence the Hawks needed...Even when healthy, he was playing a bit role rather than an impact role. And that draft pick the Hawks gave up for Tim Hardaway Jr. looks like a horrific move given how much time Hardaway Jr. has spent in street clothes or in the D-League. He's more of a project, at this point...

What's ahead: The consistency that marked the Hawks' season of a year ago has been missing in action so far. Budenholzer hasn't changed his approach or his system, so it's not necessarily on him to fix what ails this bunch. But they have chemistry issues that clearly need to be resolved if they are going to get back to the top of the standings. The uncertainty surrounding Horford's future with the team, has to be weighing on the brain trust in Atlanta as the trade deadline approaches.

[Jamaaliver]

Honestly, this team has looked extremely pedestrian since last year All Star break. Seems like that was the honeymoon period - now it's just going through the grind

The further we get away from that streak without duplicating that kind of dominance...makes it look more and more like a fluke.

We've played 60+ games since then and haven't gotten anywhere near that type of play since.

[MaceCase]

Looking at it objectively, every stat says the Hawks are a better inside team this year than last.

the Hawks are better scoring both in the paint https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/points-in-paint-per-game

and from 2 altogether https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/points-from-2-pointers both in terms of average and percentage of offense https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/percent-of-points-from-2-pointers.

Maybe the bigs are becoming more perimeter oriented but it's opening up the offense inside for others.

What's hurt them is that they aren't converting from 3 at the rate they did the previous season. The amount of attempts are the same but they are converting at a pedestrian rate (14th) as opposed to at an elite rate (2nd). It's been the difference between them being an offensive juggernaut the previous season and trending towards average this season.

Of course, the defense has seen a larger decline. The team can't stop penetration on the perimeter at all, and given that Bud runs a trap zone that sags on all penetration teams are basically dictating the Hawks defense by forcing favorable situations for themselves by getting open 3s, easy dump offs or being able to clean up their offensive glass because the Hawks interior rotated out.

There's also been decline individually:

Kyle has rust and/or decline, teams are still playing him like a 30ppg scorer difference being that he isn't beating that pressure at all this season. Teams are forcing him to and living with him taking those long 2s off the dribble after they chase him off the 3 point line as they don't have the efficiency or moral impact of a made 3 from him. His lateral quickness has also left him on the defensive end where before you could trust him in a late game situation now he can't be anywhere near anyone with even a slight handle because he's guessing in order to overcome for the fact he can't slide as smoothly.

Al is basically the exact same player he was last year which is troubling because he's almost two seasons removed from his last major injury as opposed to working his way back from it. You'd expect him to be better but he's essentially decided that he knows the bare minimum that he needs to do on either end to be effective and isn't going to exert himself past that regardless of if the team requires more from him due to slippage in other areas.

Dennis.....oh, Dennis. The beauty of having such a terrible rookie season is that there isn't worry of anyone regressing that far but regardless, regressed he has. This is unnerving because year 3 is typically the year that good to greats prospects bust out and establish themselves in this league yet we're looking at a player that is still equal parts detriment as he is a positive. Tie him together with the rest of the bench of young players in the midst of their 3rd season or just outside of it crapping the bed and you get a very sick feeling about both the talent evaluation and development. It's starting to look like Edy or bust as far as having a worthwhile player out of the draft.

[Jamaaliver]

Tie [Dennis] together with the rest of the bench of young players in the midst of their 3rd season or just outside of it crapping the bed and you get a very sick feeling about both the talent evaluation and development. It's starting to look like Edy or bust as far as having a worthwhile player out of the draft.

BINGO.

And it all started last summer with that Bebe trade.

#16 pick from 2013 - Traded for cap space
#15 pick from 2014 - Traded for future considerations
#15 pick from 2015 - Traded for THJ

We struggled to bring in much in 1st round talent...and eventually just gave up trying. Those three picks traded for little-to-no value (and the misfire on JJ2) leave us missing a ton of depth or valuable trade assets.

As a man, I preach that the quick fix is rarely the long term solution. Having a farm system with talented youngsters on reasonable contracts to groom for years was the unsexy way to attain relevance in the league. But Ferry has abandoned that line of thinking in only one week.

Here

[jayu70]

Simple - It's been an INCONSISTENT effort from game to game.
I expected Teague and Al to be playing more consistently like how Millsap is laying (career numbers up across the board) considering it's year 3 in the system. I expected Kyle to struggle to start the season with his shooting percentages coming off ankle and elbow surgery. I expected Dennis to take his next step, the trouble for him is 2 fold - he misses Pero (I know, lol), Dennis had an open lane to the basket with just the threat of Pero, Splitter doesn't spread the floor so driving lanes are clogged and teams are daring Dennis to shoot. He's taking too many ill-advised 3s, the pull up midrange like he had against Dallas will be there all season, he has to make them.
Like MaceCase said, we've had a dip in 3pt percentage and perimeter defense.

[ATL Boy]

The thing about Dennis is that he looks perfectly capable of making that mid range shot, we saw it against Dallas. His problem is that some games, even when it's there, he'll decide to drive anyway and try to convert a tough contested layup (like against OKC).

[Jamaaliver]

Like MaceCase said, we've had a dip in 3pt percentage and perimeter defense.

Sounds like we miss Demarre a bit. And Korver is unable to prop up our team 3-pt FG% by shooting nearly 50% from deep.

Our Team Off Rating is noticeably lower than last season.

According to NBA.com, the Hawks, while still scoring at a top-10 rate, have netted nearly three points per 100 possessions fewer than they did last season.

That may not seem like much, but it could mean the difference between Atlanta soaring near its 60-win mark from 2014-15 and slipping into the middle of a more competitive Eastern Conference pack.

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[New_Hawks_Era]

East is so wide open right now, we went from tied for second to eighth with that one loss to OKC (still 1.5 games back of first). Following the Spurs game, I expect us to rack up wins with our next 7 (MIA, PHI, @BOS, @ORL, POR, DET, NYK). Go 5-2 or 6-1 in that stretch (we really should, against those teams) and we'll be second or maybe even first.

Only 3 games out of that bunch I expect wins without hesitation. And that's Philadelphia, Portland and Knicks. The other ones can be a bit iffy from what I've been seeing from the Hawks as of late.

[atlantabbq99]

I don't think Korver deserves any blame. As long as he is shooting over .400 from three, he deserves to be a starter.

but somebody did make a good point, with Horford now taking more 3s, it is kind of messing up the spacing for Korver, so that might be why Korver is not shooting .500 from three so far (but still, its too much to ask a player to shoot .500 from three).

but if Horford is taking more 3s and shooting a healthy percentage, then that means their should be more space in the lane for layups by Teague, Dennis, and Baz

and like i said, Millsap got to a slow start last year and was shooting .250 from three at the start of last year, but then all of a sudden he started making some 3s and ended the year at .350 from three.

I think once Millsap starts getting more consistent from three, we are going to see a dramatic change in the flow of the whole team, because the same thing happen last year.

[Jamaaliver]

Even Millsap is at a loss for what's wrong with the team:

But who knows? There's a lot of stuff we got to find out, a lot of stuff we got to figure out. We're a little different team than last year, so we've just got to figure out where we're at, who we are right now, continue to get our rhythm back, and get our identity back.

You know, it's tough to point fingers. If we were getting outrebounded every game, if we weren't scoring every game, we'd know exactly what to put emphasis on. But it's sporadic. You never know what it might be that day. So it makes it a little tough. But eventually, we feel like we will bring it all together

Here

[Jamaaliver]

NBCSports concurs with Millsap that it is not a single issue causing Atlanta's struggles. But acknowledges the bench's role in our poor play.

There is no silver bullet as to why this team isn’t off to the fast start we saw last season, the Hawks are just a little bit worse across the board on both ends of the floor. Their bench has struggled in recent weeks, which has been part of the reason they are 5-5 in their last 10 and are tied for the eighth spot in the West as of Monday AM.

Here

[atlantabbq99]

Again in the Heat game... poor 3pt shooting.