Bradley Beal - Part II

[AFM]

Bledsoe is also 2 years older there

[I_Like_Dirt]

By far the biggest issue between the Bledsoe and Beal comparison has to do with the marketplace. My memory may be faulty, but I don't recall many teams actually having big cap space in the 2014 offseason. There were reportedly teams that were willing to pay Bledsoe a max deal but who didn't have max cap space to do so. This coming offseason is going to see a load of teams with more cap space than they know what to do with, particularly once a few free agents re-sign with their own teams and teams need to decide if they actually want to use their newfound cap space before they burn it and re-sign their own free agents. A lot of free agency this offseason is going to be an all or nothing game like that, and I expect teams to be aggressive, or they should be.

I'd also suggest that, rightly or wrongly, Bledsoe ultimately got the PG treatment in free agency, while Beal will get the wingman treatment. Look around the NBA and the vast majority of bargain contracts are PGs. There is possibly something to it, but it also might just be the NBA buying too much into the idea that size matters (not that size doesn't matter, but not necessarily to the extent that the NBA market dictates is does). Players like Lowry, Bledsoe, Curry, Teague, Conley, etc. are largely on bargain deals despite signing extensions at a point where they could have been seriously paid, when they were already pretty damn good. I'd even through Brandon Knight in there, too. Very few PGs actually get the max, like Paul, Lillard, Westbrook, Rose and Wall. Take a look at swingmen. though, and yes, Wes Matthews is better than Beal, or was last season, but he got a max that will see him past the age of 30 despite coming off an achilles injury. Rudy Gay was paid. Demarre Carroll was paid (Beal is better than Carroll). Chandler Parsons, Gordon Hayward, etc. Harrison Barnes is going to get maxed next offseason, too.

The only real hope there is for Beal as a non-max is that the RFA status scares teams off with timelines on their own players who want commitments before other teams swoop in and steal them while they're waiting to see if a max deal for Beal gets matched. I think there are enough teams out there, though, who will have max cap space, that Beal eventually gets an offer, though. The Raptors are in a similar situation with DeRozan, only worse, because he'll be a UFA rather than an RFA, and given their years of experience will be in-line for a bigger max deal that the Raptors are going to have to either decide to offer immediately or let him walk for nothing as soon as free agency gets rolling. If you were running the Sixers and had all that money and nobody to spend it on but were sure you were going to try to compete and wanted guards, wouldn't you consider overpaying for Beal this offseason when it really wouldn't matter because you either get him along with the rest of your roster on rookie deals or stick one of your competitors for a lower playoff seed with a bigger contract?

[payitforward]

Beal and Bledsoe both came into the league after 1 year in college. Both played @1800 minutes as rookies, and looking at the numbers Beal was a little bit better. Bledsoe played in 81 games, Beal in 50something.

Their 2d years, Bledsoe only played @470 minutes in 41 games -- both injured and out of the Clippers rotation? -- while Beal played @2500 minutes. Beal's productivity overall dipped slightly his 2d year, but only a little. Bledsoe went down a fair amount, but it's a small sample, and if he was gimpy maybe that's why.

In their 3d years, Bledsoe played @20 minutes a game (@1500 minutes - still coming off the bench), and Beal again started and played @2500 minutes. Beal's productivity took a jump from his preceding years. Bledsoe's took a much bigger jump. Still, keep in mind that Beal was playing against starters, and presumably Bledsoe played against subs.

Bledsoe's productivity went up a bit again as a 4th year player, making him one of the better guards in the league. It's stayed at that level.

This is Beal's 4th year. OTOH, Bledsoe turned 21 a few weeks into his rookie year. Beal was a 19-year old rookie.

At the age Bradley Beal is today, Eric Bledsoe was coming off his bad 2d year in the league. I don't think there's much to learn from the comparison of the players.

[nate33]

By far the biggest issue between the Bledsoe and Beal comparison has to do with the marketplace. My memory may be faulty, but I don't recall many teams actually having big cap space in the 2014 offseason. There were reportedly teams that were willing to pay Bledsoe a max deal but who didn't have max cap space to do so. This coming offseason is going to see a load of teams with more cap space than they know what to do with, particularly once a few free agents re-sign with their own teams and teams need to decide if they actually want to use their newfound cap space before they burn it and re-sign their own free agents. A lot of free agency this offseason is going to be an all or nothing game like that, and I expect teams to be aggressive, or they should be.

I'd also suggest that, rightly or wrongly, Bledsoe ultimately got the PG treatment in free agency, while Beal will get the wingman treatment. Look around the NBA and the vast majority of bargain contracts are PGs. There is possibly something to it, but it also might just be the NBA buying too much into the idea that size matters (not that size doesn't matter, but not necessarily to the extent that the NBA market dictates is does). Players like Lowry, Bledsoe, Curry, Teague, Conley, etc. are largely on bargain deals despite signing extensions at a point where they could have been seriously paid, when they were already pretty damn good. I'd even through Brandon Knight in there, too. Very few PGs actually get the max, like Paul, Lillard, Westbrook, Rose and Wall. Take a look at swingmen. though, and yes, Wes Matthews is better than Beal, or was last season, but he got a max that will see him past the age of 30 despite coming off an achilles injury. Rudy Gay was paid. Demarre Carroll was paid (Beal is better than Carroll). Chandler Parsons, Gordon Hayward, etc. Harrison Barnes is going to get maxed next offseason, too.

While I agree with your point that there is a lot of money chasing around a finite number of free agents, I gotta disagree with you on one thing: Beal is not better than Carroll. Carroll has played awful this year in Toronto, and he's still equal to Beal offensively while being way better defensively.

[AFM]

From WireTap

Bradley Beal Re-Injures Right Fibula, Not Expected To Impact Contract
Bradley Beal will miss the next two weeks with a stress reaction in his lower right fibula.

The diagnosis, which the Washington Wizards labeled “the beginnings of a stress reaction,” was determined less than 24 hours after Beal was a late scratch for Friday's loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.

Beal has had right fibula injuries in each of his four NBA seasons.

“I try to stay as positive as possible and I still am,” Beal said. “It was disappointing to hear officially, but it’s a piece of mind at the same time, not always wondering, ‘Okay, is this really back again?’ And it is.”

Beal and the Wizards were unable to agree upon an extension before the Nov. 3rd deadline as Beal sought a max contract.

Even though Beal's recurring injuries are a concern, he's still expected to command a max contract.

“I’m still going to come back from this,” Beal said. “I’m not going to let this just keep me down or worry me too much. I’m still confident in who I am and the type of player I am. And the GM and the rest of the organization knows what I’m capable of doing, too. So hopefully they won’t use this against me come next summer.”

[nate33]

Beal and Bledsoe both came into the league after 1 year in college. Both played @1800 minutes as rookies, and looking at the numbers Beal was a little bit better. Bledsoe played in 81 games, Beal in 50something.

Their 2d years, Bledsoe only played @470 minutes in 41 games -- both injured and out of the Clippers rotation? -- while Beal played @2500 minutes. Beal's productivity overall dipped slightly his 2d year, but only a little. Bledsoe went down a fair amount, but it's a small sample, and if he was gimpy maybe that's why.

In their 3d years, Bledsoe played @20 minutes a game (@1500 minutes - still coming off the bench), and Beal again started and played @2500 minutes. Beal's productivity took a jump from his preceding years. Bledsoe's took a much bigger jump. Still, keep in mind that Beal was playing against starters, and presumably Bledsoe played against subs.

Bledsoe's productivity went up a bit again as a 4th year player, making him one of the better guards in the league. It's stayed at that level.

This is Beal's 4th year. OTOH, Bledsoe turned 21 a few weeks into his rookie year. Beal was a 19-year old rookie.

At the age Bradley Beal is today, Eric Bledsoe was coming off his bad 2d year in the league. I don't think there's much to learn from the comparison of the players.

Don't you think playing behind Chris Paul on a championship contender had something to do with Bledsoe's minute load in LA? Beal has never had a season even as good as Bledsoe's 3rd season. Bledsoe was playing lockdown D while posting respectable numbers on offense. Once he moved to Phoenix and got the touches, he became a borderline star caliber player. I lay awake at night hoping and praying that Beal could somehow even approach Bledsoe's 4th year production.

[nate33]

From WireTap

Bradley Beal Re-Injures Right Fibula, Not Expected To Impact Contract
Bradley Beal will miss the next two weeks with a stress reaction in his lower right fibula.

The diagnosis, which the Washington Wizards labeled “the beginnings of a stress reaction,” was determined less than 24 hours after Beal was a late scratch for Friday's loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.

Beal has had right fibula injuries in each of his four NBA seasons.

“I try to stay as positive as possible and I still am,” Beal said. “It was disappointing to hear officially, but it’s a piece of mind at the same time, not always wondering, ‘Okay, is this really back again?’ And it is.”

Beal and the Wizards were unable to agree upon an extension before the Nov. 3rd deadline as Beal sought a max contract.

Even though Beal's recurring injuries are a concern, he's still expected to command a max contract.

“I’m still going to come back from this,” Beal said. “I’m not going to let this just keep me down or worry me too much. I’m still confident in who I am and the type of player I am. And the GM and the rest of the organization knows what I’m capable of doing, too. So hopefully they won’t use this against me come next summer.”

The Wizards aren't setting Beal's price this summer. The rest of the league is. The Wizards just need to let the league know that they'll match all offers, and then hope nobody extends a max offer. If they do extend it, Washington can match. At least that way, they'd be matching with 4.5% raises and not 7.5%.

If Beal's season-ending numbers look roughly like his current numbers (USG of 25%, ORtg of 98-102), I would not match an max offer. I'd rather let him walk for nothing and then go sign Gordon or Fournier for less money. The only caveat is if we landed Durant and Durant wanted Beal to stick around, then I'd keep him.

[AFM]

From WireTap

Bradley Beal Re-Injures Right Fibula, Not Expected To Impact Contract
Bradley Beal will miss the next two weeks with a stress reaction in his lower right fibula.

The diagnosis, which the Washington Wizards labeled “the beginnings of a stress reaction,” was determined less than 24 hours after Beal was a late scratch for Friday's loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.

Beal has had right fibula injuries in each of his four NBA seasons.

“I try to stay as positive as possible and I still am,” Beal said. “It was disappointing to hear officially, but it’s a piece of mind at the same time, not always wondering, ‘Okay, is this really back again?’ And it is.”

Beal and the Wizards were unable to agree upon an extension before the Nov. 3rd deadline as Beal sought a max contract.

Even though Beal's recurring injuries are a concern, he's still expected to command a max contract.

“I’m still going to come back from this,” Beal said. “I’m not going to let this just keep me down or worry me too much. I’m still confident in who I am and the type of player I am. And the GM and the rest of the organization knows what I’m capable of doing, too. So hopefully they won’t use this against me come next summer.”

The Wizards aren't setting Beal's price this summer. The rest of the league is. The Wizards just need to let the league know that they'll match all offers, and then hope nobody extends a max offer. If they do extend it, Washington can match. At least that way, they'd be matching with 4.5% raises and not 7.5%.

If Beal's season-ending numbers look roughly like his current numbers (USG of 25%, ORtg of 98-102), I would not match an max offer. I'd rather let him walk for nothing and then go sign Gordon or Fournier for less money. The only caveat is if we landed Durant and Durant wanted Beal to stick around, then I'd keep him.

I'm hoping he gets a Curry type contract. Curry had ankle issues, IIRC. But I don't think he had them 4 years in a row like Beal has.

[Dark Faze]

I'd rather pay the premium and keep him than save 5 million or so a year going after a guy like Fournier or Gordon

again playoff numbers if you love ORTG so much --110 and 107, kid steps his game up when it matters most

[I_Like_Dirt]

While I agree with your point that there is a lot of money chasing around a finite number of free agents, I gotta disagree with you on one thing: Beal is not better than Carroll. Carroll has played awful this year in Toronto, and he's still equal to Beal offensively while being way better defensively.

I'm not sure you how could possibly make any reasonable argument to suggest that Carroll has been equal to Beal offensively this season, or even in past seasons. He isn't able to handle anything close to an average USG% while on the floor. While they have comparable ortgs, I find comparing ortg from team to team a bit of a misleading endeavor. Beal has a slightly higher ortg playing for the 19th ranked offense in the NBA than Carroll has playing for the 4th ranked offense. Beal crushes Carroll in TS%, USG%, PER, and really, it isn't close. If you want to argue the defensive side of things, fine. But offensively, Carroll really isn't very good and the comparison isn't particularly close with Beal. I'd be willing to accept that Carroll could be a bit more of a utility knife on offense than Beal could be, but Beal can simply do more offensively than Carroll, by quite a bit.

I'd suggest that Beal and Derozan are pretty even offensively overall despite playing very different games. They sport virtually identical USG%s and TS%s and while Derozan has certainly been better, as evidenced by his much higher PER this season in what has been arguably Demar's best season in his career so far provided he can sustain his level of play, their career PERs really aren't so far apart and Beal is 4 years younger than Demar. Demar may or may not get the max, but his max his considerably higher than Beal's, and when Demar sticks with the Raptors, teams will eventually chase Beal, too. And while you can argue that Beal isn't as good as Derozan, Gordon Hayward or Wesley Matthews coming off an ACL tear, he really isn't so far behind those guys that he won't also get paid.

[nate33]

I'd rather pay the premium and keep him than save 5 million or so a year going after a guy like Fournier or Gordon

again playoff numbers if you love ORTG so much --110 and 107, kid steps his game up when it matters most

Fournier replacing Beal would be an upgrade.

[tontoz]

Take a look at swingmen. though, and yes, Wes Matthews is better than Beal, or was last season, but he got a max that will see him past the age of 30 despite coming off an achilles injury. Demarre Carroll was paid (Beal is better than Carroll). Chandler Parsons, Gordon Hayward, etc. Harrison Barnes is going to get maxed next offseason, too.

?

All the signings in the last two years were done with the knowledge that the cap was about to go up sharply. If the cap was projected to remain the same it is highly doubtful those deals would be the same. The owners knew that a max contract now could be a seeming bargain down the road.

Completely different story with Beal. A max salary next summer will be roughly $5 million/yr higher than Matthews' deal.

[tontoz]

I'd rather pay the premium and keep him than save 5 million or so a year going after a guy like Fournier or Gordon

again playoff numbers if you love ORTG so much --110 and 107, kid steps his game up when it matters most

Sample size matters

[Dark Faze]

I'd rather pay the premium and keep him than save 5 million or so a year going after a guy like Fournier or Gordon

again playoff numbers if you love ORTG so much --110 and 107, kid steps his game up when it matters most

Fournier replacing Beal would be an upgrade.

I disagree. The guy does nothing well but score at decent efficiency, and despite the vast difference between his ORTG and Brads, looking deeper at the numbers just shows a guy who's near Brads level of efficiency on a smaller scale. Evans got a better team in Orlando than we do in Washington imo, and they're only a game above .500.

[Ruzious]

From WireTap

Bradley Beal Re-Injures Right Fibula, Not Expected To Impact Contract
Bradley Beal will miss the next two weeks with a stress reaction in his lower right fibula.

The diagnosis, which the Washington Wizards labeled “the beginnings of a stress reaction,” was determined less than 24 hours after Beal was a late scratch for Friday's loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.

Beal has had right fibula injuries in each of his four NBA seasons.

“I try to stay as positive as possible and I still am,” Beal said. “It was disappointing to hear officially, but it’s a piece of mind at the same time, not always wondering, ‘Okay, is this really back again?’ And it is.”

Beal and the Wizards were unable to agree upon an extension before the Nov. 3rd deadline as Beal sought a max contract.

Even though Beal's recurring injuries are a concern, he's still expected to command a max contract.

“I’m still going to come back from this,” Beal said. “I’m not going to let this just keep me down or worry me too much. I’m still confident in who I am and the type of player I am. And the GM and the rest of the organization knows what I’m capable of doing, too. So hopefully they won’t use this against me come next summer.”

The Wizards aren't setting Beal's price this summer. The rest of the league is. The Wizards just need to let the league know that they'll match all offers, and then hope nobody extends a max offer. If they do extend it, Washington can match. At least that way, they'd be matching with 4.5% raises and not 7.5%.

If Beal's season-ending numbers look roughly like his current numbers (USG of 25%, ORtg of 98-102), I would not match an max offer. I'd rather let him walk for nothing and then go sign Gordon or Fournier for less money. The only caveat is if we landed Durant and Durant wanted Beal to stick around, then I'd keep him.

Probably the best hedge the Wiz could have gotten re Beal's free agency is Jordan Clarkson. Sigh.

If Beal doesn't dramatically improve AND show he's not injury-prone, there's no way he should get even close to max dollars.

[Dark Faze]

I don't even know why yall are shook about him getting max--finances become an issue when you've got guys you want to bring in to take his place, and right now if we don't get Kevin Durant we're going to have almost no shot of bringing in a free agent all-star, let alone super star.

Of course that doesn't mean to just spend money foolishly, but John Wall is going to be underpaid severely until his next contract. Gortat is an amazing contract in the new CAP. The idea that our young guy Brad who still has the ability to improve, and has shown amazing runs in the last two post seasons, is going to be overpaid--I just don't see what the big deal is.

[Illmatic12]

My point is that there are often reports about "so and so team is lining up an offer sheet, or willing to give max offer to ___" before the FA moratorium ends, those reports aren't easy to confirm.

If Beal signs with the Wiz on day 1, there's no way to know confirm who else was going to send him an offer sheet.

If Beal signs a max deal with the Wizards then you would win the bet. I said he won't get a max offer from any team and that includes the Wizards.

Ah, so you're saying the Wiz will potentially be able to sign him for less than the max?

I sure hope so.. but I just don't see it. No point in me making a wager on it, I simply don't think it's likely with so many teams having max capspace. All it takes is the Sixers, Knicks, or Lakers to drive his price up.. those teams have nothing to lose by extending him a max offer sheet.

[nate33]

I'd rather pay the premium and keep him than save 5 million or so a year going after a guy like Fournier or Gordon

again playoff numbers if you love ORTG so much --110 and 107, kid steps his game up when it matters most

Fournier replacing Beal would be an upgrade.

I disagree. The guy does nothing well but score at decent efficiency, and despite the vast difference between his ORTG and Brads, looking deeper at the numbers just shows a guy who's near Brads level of efficiency on a smaller scale. Evans got a better team in Orlando than we do in Washington imo, and they're only a game above .500.

Nonsense. Both Wall and Gortat are better than every player on the Orlando Magic. They don't have a better team.

And how can you say "vast difference in ORtg" in the same sentence as "near Brad's level of efficiency".

[Higga]

I just don't know how you can justify maxing Beal out. I love him as much as anyone if not more so but the guy is just not reliable at all health wise.

[Illmatic12]

I don't even know why yall are shook about him getting max--finances become an issue when you've got guys you want to bring in to take his place, and right now if we don't get Kevin Durant we're going to have almost no shot of bringing in a free agent all-star, let alone super star.

Of course that doesn't mean to just spend money foolishly, but John Wall is going to be underpaid severely until his next contract. Gortat is an amazing contract in the new CAP. The idea that our young guy Brad who still has the ability to improve, and has shown amazing runs in the last two post seasons, is going to be overpaid--I just don't see what the big deal is.

Because this is 'RealGM'.. everyone is a 'real' GM on here. People think that if we let Beal go and sign Eric Gordon for $10M, it means we're definitely going to sign Kevin Durant with that extra capspace.

In reality, that capspace will just end up sitting there (or will be used to max Ryan Anderson). Whatever Wiz fanbase that remains will completely dwindle away as the team outlook turns bleak, and Wall will start planning his exit in 2017. That's a far more realistic outcome when teams don't hold onto their young talent.

Even if Beal is a risk to miss 15 games a season here on out, keeping the Wall/Beal/Porter core together through their primes is the best chance this team will have at success, relevance, watchability moving forward. Almost any other scenario in which we get better by letting Beal go, involves a fantasy trade or FA signing that isn't tenable in real life.

Durant has little reason to leave OKC for DC. Al Horford has no reason to leave Atlanta. Cousins isn't on the trading block. And let's say we offered Beal to Philly, who's to say they'd trade any of their more valuable picks for him?