Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[payitforward]

Nah, the Okariza deal was using cap space and NOT young assets to fill out a team with enough professional basketball players that Wall and Beal could actually learn how to win. It was a defensible move to get us out of the "knucklehead era". I didn't love the move at the time because I thought Ariza wasn't very good, but then he proceeded to have a resurgence thanks to Wall setting him up for catch-and-shoot 3's. In hindsight, the move was fine. The opportunity cost was cap room in 2012 that could have been used on Ryan Anderson. That turned out be not such a great loss since Anderson had injury troubles and forgot how to play defense. Over the next 2 years, Ariza was a better player than Anderson.

We've debated the Okariza trade so much that it's hard to imagine any benefit from doing so again, but I'd say the trade was just about the opposite of what you describe.

1. Rashard Lewis was a "professional basketball player" who knew "how to win." Moreover, we let some other guys go who also had that "veteran" benefit. Your defense of the trade is that now we had one more? Take a look at how Presti built Seattle/OKC: did he keep Ray Allen so Kevin Durant could "learn how to win?" How come Boston is doing better than we are this season -- a bunch of young bigs didn't get them to re-sign Kris Humphries so they could "learn how to win."

2. We were already out of the knucklehead era.

3. You didn't think Ariza was good? Why? He'd been good over and over in his career. He wasn't the problem w/ the trade. Okafor cost us $28m in cash/cap room and played 2000 minutes.

4. "...cap room that could have been used on Ryan Anderson" -- ?? Well, yes, I suppose so. Then again, it could also have been used on a host of other guys. Or used to acquire other kinds of assets (picks). Ryan Anderson's career is not relevant to the discussion of this trade.

5. We threw in the #46 pick in that very deep draft -- e.g. Kyle O'Quinn.

6. Finally, look at the injury history of veterans Ernie has acquired in the last few years (e.g., currently, Humphries). This is part of the "save my job" skill he has cultivated. If the guy works out (Ariza) he gets the benefit. If the guy gets injured (Okafor), that's just "chance", not Ernie's fault. And in fact, after Okafor was lost, I read a quote from Ted Leonsis about what an odd business the NBA was, because so much depended on chance.

It was a disastrous mistake, that trade. Basically what it showed is that we were all in for mediocrity and had no interest in building a title contender (again, see Presti). We'd had 2 years of fan grumbling, and Ted blinked. Throw out the "build through youth" and win a title plan.

I can't see that we are "building through youth" now, either. The last off-season tells all on that subject.

[popper]

What about Rakeem Christmas. Any way we could pry him away from the Pacers?

?? Why?

He's about to turn 25, he was not a good college player, and he certainly isn't excelling in the D League.

John Henson is in his 4th year in the league. Rakeem Christmas is older than John Henson. Not good and no upside at all.

Maybe his last several games were an anomaly. I don’t follow the D league much but this article caught my eye.

Rakeem Christmas drops 30, dunks on people, wins D-League Performer of the Week

Rakeem Christmas made a giant leap from contributor to star last year with Syracuse. By all appearances, his growth has continued with the Fort Wayne Mad Ants.

Christmas delivered his best week as a professional basketball player with the Mad Ants last week, ultimately earning him D-League Performer of the Week on Monday.

During three games last week, Christmas averaged 24.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.7 blocks. He capped the week with a 30-point explosion against Grand Rapids, making 11 of his 15 shots. The 30 points were a career high.

The 24-year-old Christmas also had a pair of fantastic dunks during a five-block, 18-point night against the Canton Charge. He destroyed 7-foot-3 Walter Tavares with an aggressive left-handed dunk in the above clip and also had a nice putback slam in the same game….

http://www.syracuse.com/orangebasketball/index.ssf/2015/12/rakeem_christmas_drops_30_dunks_on_people_wins_d-league_performer_of_the_week.html

[Dark Faze]

i dont know how you can call the ariza okafor deal anything but a success. It led to a first round victory against the best bulls team of the last few years and started our march towards being respected.

I can see Hump getting moved. Wasn't part of our post season run last year and even this year we just can't seem to find a place that works for him.

[tontoz]

i dont know how you can call the ariza okafor deal anything but a success. It led to a first round victory against the best bulls team of the last few years and started our march towards being respected.

I can see Hump getting moved. Wasn't part of our post season run last year and even this year we just can't seem to find a place that works for him.

It is very easy to say the Okariza deal was a failure. It sacrificed long term success for short term gain. So what if we beat an overachieving Bulls team ( that lost Rose for the season and traded away Deng for nothing, And Noah was hurt. Their leading scorer was a guy who had been cut by 2 teams in 12 months) 2 years ago. We got destroyed in the next round.

Now it is iffy whether we will even make the playoffs.

[nate33]

i dont know how you can call the ariza okafor deal anything but a success. It led to a first round victory against the best bulls team of the last few years and started our march towards being respected.

I can see Hump getting moved. Wasn't part of our post season run last year and even this year we just can't seem to find a place that works for him.

It is very easy to say the Okariza deal was a failure. It sacrificed long term success for short term gain. So what if we beat an overachieving Bulls team ( that lost Rose for the season and traded away Deng for nothing, And Noah was hurt. Their leading scorer was a guy who had been cut by 2 teams in 12 months) 2 years ago. We got destroyed in the next round.

Now it is iffy whether we will even make the playoffs.

It didn't really sacrifice any long term success though. It didn't hurt our draft spot in 2013 because we moved up from #8 to #3 and were still able to draft Porter. That summer, we would have had cap room absent the trade, instead we had Okafor's corpse as filler to use in the Gortat acquisition. What player do you think we could have added with raw cap room who would have been better than Gortat?

The only way you can argue that the deal cost us long term success is if you want to say we would have been better off tanking in 2013/14 instead of making it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. Even if we did tank, I think Wall was too good to let us fall to the top of the lottery. We probably would have finished with the 12th pick or so in a weak draft. We probably wouldn't have been in position for the second 2nd round playoffs run in 2014/15 either. Was Doug McDermott or Dario Saric worth 2 years of 2nd round finishes in the playoffs?

Again, at the time, I didn't really like the deal. But since Ariza turned out to be an above average SF for a few years, and since we got lucky in the lottery in 2013 by moving up to #3, it ended up working out just fine.

[tontoz]

i dont know how you can call the ariza okafor deal anything but a success. It led to a first round victory against the best bulls team of the last few years and started our march towards being respected.

I can see Hump getting moved. Wasn't part of our post season run last year and even this year we just can't seem to find a place that works for him.

It is very easy to say the Okariza deal was a failure. It sacrificed long term success for short term gain. So what if we beat an overachieving Bulls team ( that lost Rose for the season and traded away Deng for nothing, And Noah was hurt. Their leading scorer was a guy who had been cut by 2 teams in 12 months) 2 years ago. We got destroyed in the next round.

Now it is iffy whether we will even make the playoffs.

It didn't really sacrifice any long term success though. It didn't hurt our draft spot in 2013 because we moved up from #8 to #3 and were still able to draft Porter. That summer, we would have had cap room absent the trade, instead we had Okafor's corpse as filler to use in the Gortat acquisition. What player do you think we could have added with raw cap room who would have been better than Gortat?

The only way you can argue that the deal cost us long term success is if you want to say we would have been better off tanking in 2013/14 instead of making it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. Even if we did tank, I think Wall was too good to let us fall to the top of the lottery. We probably would have finished with the 12th pick or so in a weak draft. We probably wouldn't have been in position for the second 2nd round playoffs run in 2014/15 either. Was Doug McDermott or Dario Saric worth 2 years of 2nd round finishes in the playoffs?

You are ignoring the 1st rounder thrown into the Gortat deal. We could have signed him outright the following year without giving up anything. And again you seem to be assuming that cap space can only be used on free agents.

Lets forget about the win now deals to Webster/Pierce/Dudley/Anderson/Hump. Rebuild through youth, or tread water indefinitely?

Now that the East isn't extremely weak our lack of foresight is more obvious. Last year we got very lucky. The majority of the teams in the east were in disarray and two teams that were better than us lost two guys (George, Bosh) which killed their seasons. Getting to the 2nd round was far more a matter of luck than a result of any moves EG made.

[Dark Faze]

man, developing one of the 14 guys would have been irritating as a fan--very weak draft, glad to have skipped out on that one

[nate33]

It is very easy to say the Okariza deal was a failure. It sacrificed long term success for short term gain. So what if we beat an overachieving Bulls team ( that lost Rose for the season and traded away Deng for nothing, And Noah was hurt. Their leading scorer was a guy who had been cut by 2 teams in 12 months) 2 years ago. We got destroyed in the next round.

Now it is iffy whether we will even make the playoffs.

It didn't really sacrifice any long term success though. It didn't hurt our draft spot in 2013 because we moved up from #8 to #3 and were still able to draft Porter. That summer, we would have had cap room absent the trade, instead we had Okafor's corpse as filler to use in the Gortat acquisition. What player do you think we could have added with raw cap room who would have been better than Gortat?

The only way you can argue that the deal cost us long term success is if you want to say we would have been better off tanking in 2013/14 instead of making it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. Even if we did tank, I think Wall was too good to let us fall to the top of the lottery. We probably would have finished with the 12th pick or so in a weak draft. We probably wouldn't have been in position for the second 2nd round playoffs run in 2014/15 either. Was Doug McDermott or Dario Saric worth 2 years of 2nd round finishes in the playoffs?

You are ignoring the 1st rounder thrown into the Gortat deal. We could have signed him outright the following year without giving up anything. And again you seem to be assuming that cap space can only be used on free agents.

Lets forget about the win now deals to Webster/Pierce/Dudley/Anderson/Hump. Rebuild through youth, or tread water indefinitely?

Now that the East isn't extremely weak our lack of foresight is more obvious. Last year we got very lucky. The majority of the teams in the east were in disarray and two teams that were better than us lost two guys (George, Bosh) which killed their seasons. Getting to the 2nd round was far more a matter of luck than a result of any moves EG made.

Buying picks sounds better in theory than in practice. The reality is that nobody has been selling decent picks lately. Maybe we could have purchased something in the mid to late 20's, but with EG drafting, that's not going to be helpful.

[tontoz]

Buying picks sounds better in theory than in practice. The reality is that nobody has been selling decent picks lately. Maybe we could have purchased something in the mid to late 20's, but with EG drafting, that's not going to be helpful.

Buying picks? How about trying to sign a young guy with upside? Riley got Whiteside out of the DLeague for crying out loud. The Celtics got Isiah Thomas for under $7 million per year.

I dont see Ainge signing guys like Alan Anderson and Webster.

I would just be happy if he stops selling picks. How nice would it be to have Jordan Clarkson right now? It would be a lot easier to let Beal go with Clarkson here. He is probably better suited to the 2 any way. But in typical EG fashion he sacrificed a long term asset for short term gain.

[payitforward]

What about Rakeem Christmas. Any way we could pry him away from the Pacers?

?? Why?

He's about to turn 25, he was not a good college player, and he certainly isn't excelling in the D League.

John Henson is in his 4th year in the league. Rakeem Christmas is older than John Henson. Not good and no upside at all.

Maybe his last several games were an anomaly. I don’t follow the D league much but this article caught my eye.

Rakeem Christmas drops 30, dunks on people, wins D-League Performer of the Week

Rakeem Christmas made a giant leap from contributor to star last year with Syracuse. By all appearances, his growth has continued with the Fort Wayne Mad Ants.

Christmas delivered his best week as a professional basketball player with the Mad Ants last week, ultimately earning him D-League Performer of the Week on Monday.

During three games last week, Christmas averaged 24.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.7 blocks. He capped the week with a 30-point explosion against Grand Rapids, making 11 of his 15 shots. The 30 points were a career high.

The 24-year-old Christmas also had a pair of fantastic dunks during a five-block, 18-point night against the Canton Charge. He destroyed 7-foot-3 Walter Tavares with an aggressive left-handed dunk in the above clip and also had a nice putback slam in the same game….

http://www.syracuse.com/orangebasketball/index.ssf/2015/12/rakeem_christmas_drops_30_dunks_on_people_wins_d-league_performer_of_the_week.html

A few terrific games from Christmas, I guess -- good for him.

Now take a look at his overall D-League stats. He's scoring a lot, but only because he shoots a lot. His eFG% is 47% (very low for a big) and his TS% is .51 (ditto). No thanks. And, he grabs a big 8.9 boards per 40 minutes. Turns it over 2.6 times while stealing only .9 times. About to turn 25. This is *not* an NBA player.

[nate33]

Buying picks sounds better in theory than in practice. The reality is that nobody has been selling decent picks lately. Maybe we could have purchased something in the mid to late 20's, but with EG drafting, that's not going to be helpful.

Buying picks? How about trying to sign a young guy with upside? Riley got Whiteside out of the DLeague for crying out loud. The Celtics got Isiah Thomas for under $7 million per year.

I dont see Ainge signing guys like Alan Anderson and Webster.

I would just be happy if he stops selling picks. How nice would it be to have Jordan Clarkson right now? It would be a lot easier to let Beal go with Clarkson here. He is probably better suited to the 2 any way. But in typical EG fashion he sacrificed a long term asset for short term gain.

You are changing the subject. I'm not trying to argue that EG is a good GM. I wouldn't shed a tear if he was fired tomorrow. All I'm saying is that the Okariza trade looks fine in hindsight. That trade wasn't the problem. It's all the other mistakes he has made.

[payitforward]

...(the Okariza trade) didn't really sacrifice any long term success though. It didn't hurt our draft spot in 2013 because we moved up from #8 to #3 and were still able to draft Porter. That summer, we would have had cap room absent the trade, instead we had Okafor's corpse as filler to use in the Gortat acquisition. What player do you think we could have added with raw cap room who would have been better than Gortat?

Wow, Nate. That is *completely* wrong. The fact that we had to dump Okafor in order to acquire Gortat led to us paying $14m for a guy w/ a $7m expiring salary (the "payment" came by way of absorbing several players Phoenix didn't want, cutting them, and paying their full salaries). That's not using his contract as "filler". It's the opposite.

Moreover, it's only *because* Okafor got injured the day before the season began that we traded for Gortat! Note that Phoenix *wanted* to trade Gortat, because they didn't plan to re-sign him. If we'd had cap room, and hadn't had to dump Okafor, it would have been if anything *easier* to trade for him.

The only way you can argue that the deal cost us long term success is if you want to say we would have been better off tanking in 2013/14 instead of making it to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Once again, the idea that the Okariza trade somehow *enabled* us to acquire Gortat is quite an elaborately imagined narrative. If what you mean is to refer to Ariza's contribution to that success, once again it's the Okariza trade we're discussing, not Trevor Ariza.

Even if we did tank, I think Wall was too good to let us fall to the top of the lottery. We probably would have finished with the 12th pick or so in a weak draft. We probably wouldn't have been in position for the second 2nd round playoffs run in 2014/15 either. Was Doug McDermott or Dario Saric worth 2 years of 2nd round finishes in the playoffs?

Whoa there -- you had quite a rhetoric teacher! Were you on the debating team in HS??

What could it possibly mean to say you "think Wall was too good to let us fall to the top of the lottery" and then treat that "think" as if it constituted evidence for what pick we'd have gotten in the draft. And then sub in a couple of weak-seeming names to make your point?

You don't know where we'd have landed in the '14 draft. Maybe we'd have gotten Randle? Maybe we've had only gotten Josef Nurkic (who just turned 21, btw).

On top of which... neither Okariza nor Ariza was on the team that went to R2 last year. Nor did we get *any* assets for Ariza. How does the trade affect our 2014 season negatively?

Again, at the time, I didn't really like the deal. But since Ariza turned out to be an above average SF for a few years, and since we got lucky in the lottery in 2013 by moving up to #3, it ended up working out just fine.

Nah. Post hoc ergo propter hoc?

Not to mention that moving up in '13 draft is irrelevant -- what if the opposite happened, and we'd moved *down* (i.e. the max # of teams got bumped above us) and had to wind up w/ only Giannis? Or gotten stuck w/ Steven Adams? Would that be evidence the trade was "bad?"

Once again: we gave up a huge asset in cap room to make that trade. Two years later we had nothing from it, zip. We had the opportunity to sign the UFA Marcin Gortat.

[Dark Faze]

we had the opportunity to get jordan clarkson and draymond green with 2nd rounders as well which would have made up for moving that first to get the inside track on Gortat

would have could have should have

[nate33]

Nah. Post hoc ergo propter hoc?

Not to mention that moving up in '13 draft is irrelevant -- what if the opposite happened, and we'd moved *down* (i.e. the max # of teams got bumped above us) and had to wind up w/ only Giannis? Or gotten stuck w/ Steven Adams? Would that be evidence the trade was "bad?"

Once again: we gave up a huge asset in cap room to make that trade. Two years later we had nothing from it, zip. We had the opportunity to sign the UFA Marcin Gortat.

I don't know how many times we have to go round and round on this. Yes, if we didn't make the Okariza trade, we would have had the cap room to sign Gortat outright without using our pick. So basically, instead of Ariza (for 2 years) plus Gortat plus two years of 2nd round playoff experience, we could have had Gortat plus the 2014 pick (probably late lotto without Ariza) and no playoff run. Again, based on the strength of the 2014 draft, I'm not shedding any tears.

I guess you want to argue that, instead of Gortat, we could have signed that hypothetical superstar who would come and join a woeful East conference team. Care to name that guy?

[payitforward]

Nah. Post hoc ergo propter hoc?

Not to mention that moving up in '13 draft is irrelevant -- what if the opposite happened, and we'd moved *down* (i.e. the max # of teams got bumped above us) and had to wind up w/ only Giannis? Or gotten stuck w/ Steven Adams? Would that be evidence the trade was "bad?"

Once again: we gave up a huge asset in cap room to make that trade. Two years later we had nothing from it, zip. We had the opportunity to sign the UFA Marcin Gortat.

I don't know how many times we have to go round and round on this. Yes, if we didn't make the Okariza trade, we would have had the cap room to sign Gortat outright without using our pick. So basically, instead of Ariza (for 2 years) plus Gortat plus two years of 2nd round playoff experience, we could have had Gortat plus the 2014 pick (probably late lotto without Ariza) and no playoff run. Again, based on the strength of the 2014 draft, I'm not shedding any tears.

I guess you want to argue that, instead of Gortat, we could have signed that hypothetical superstar who would come and join a woeful East conference team. Care to name that guy?

As I started out saying, we've debated Okariza so much and for so long that it's not likely we'll get anywhere by now.

I like Gortat; I don't mind what we're paying him. I've liked him since he was w/ Orlando, and I wanted him here when he left and instead wound up in Phoenix. Marcin Gortat is not relevant to the Okariza trade.

The team we have now -- with a few young guys, not many, a bunch of end-of-career journeymen and other vets none of whom do we have any kind of future hold over, no extra picks going forward (I think we're down a R2 pick if anything), no particular reason to think we're about to acquire a savior-style superstar, about half of Wall's career already behind him, and a losing record -- all of that started with two disastrous pieces of EG work: the miserable 2011 draft and the Okariza trade.

Of course we made a bunch of other foolish moves as well. And a few good ones too. Nor does all the blame for the bad ones go to Ernie. As I wrote above, when fans grew restless after the awful 2011 season, Ted blinked. He abandoned his 10-point program and went all in for mediocrity.

Unlike success, mediocrity is pretty easy to achieve, and we've done it. We're mediocre. If we struggle hard, maybe we'll stay mediocre. More than that? Well... think back 10 years to the last team Ernie built. This one is a lot like that one.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I'm not retyping a relitigation of Okariza. Over at the blog, I wrote at least one piece about why it was a bad trade. There were a number of options available to the team that would have brought on young players with a future, added depth and given the team something to build with, as well as add a grizzled veteran up front. I wrote another piece blasting the trade to get Gortat, which also seems applicable.

[Dark Faze]

none of those posts reveal any fantastic opportunities we could have taken advantage of--we'd have gotten Ryan Anderson, maybe some other wing and Gortat via free agency--how does that make us that much better today?

As I've said--with the trades made, there were fantastic future assets available in the second round between Draymond Green and Jordan Clarkson who would have been fantastic additions to our team even with the trade that was made.

Until we find out why Ernie uses picks to get guys like Aaron White while looking over guys like Clarkson, or bringing in a guy like Hollins instead of trying to find hidden gold in the D-League--we're going to continue to be in a bad spot.

[nate33]

I'm not retyping a relitigation of Okariza. Over at the blog, I wrote at least one piece about why it was a bad trade. There were a number of options available to the team that would have brought on young players with a future, added depth and given the team something to build with, as well as add a grizzled veteran up front. I wrote another piece blasting the trade to get Gortat, which also seems applicable.

I agreed with you when the trade took place that Okariza was a bad move. But in hindsight, seeing the players that were available, I no longer have that position.

Basically, the alternate timeline theory goes something like this:
2012 Offseason: Instead of the Okariza trade in 2012, we buy out Rashard Lewis, which frees up enough cap room to trade Booker for Ryan Anderson.

2012/13 Season: Our record is worse after the 2012/13 campaign, but it doesn't matter because in our actual timeline, we lucked out in the lottery and got the #3 pick anyhow.

2013 Offseason: We draft Porter. The rest of Lewis' buyout comes off the books. We use raw cap room to acquire Gortat, whom Phoenix was looking to move. Therefore, we don't have to cough up our 2014 draft pick.

2013/14 Season: Ariza was a better player in 2013/14 than Ryan Anderson, so chances are, we don't make the playoffs, or if we do, we don't get out of the first round.

2014 Offseason: We have a pick, but it's late lotto or mid-teens. There really isn't anyone good in that range in this draft. Maybe we land a guy like Jusuf Nurkic. Ariza probably still bolts and we probably still replace him with Pierce. We don't sign Humphries since we have Ryan Anderson

2014/15 Season: Probably about as good as our actual 2014/15 season. It's the same basic roster with Anderson replacing Humphries. (Anderson had some injury issues and wasn't all THAT good this year.) In the playoffs, Anderson's presence doesn't matter because Pierce moved to the 4 as Porter emerged.

2015 Offseason: Nothing much different

Current: we have the same basic team except Anderson replaces Humphries. That's an upgrade, but it's only temporary as Anderson comes off the books this offseason anyhow.

The net difference is the presence of Nurkic as a backup center, and Anderson on the team this year. That would help us this season but would have no tangible effect in the long term. On the downside, we would not have done as well in the 2013/14 season and who knows what difference that would have made to the development of Wall and Beal. We also don't know if Porter would have emerged in the playoffs last year if Anderson was still on the team forcing Pierce to play primarily SF.

[fishercob]

Speaking of Gortat, is it time to trade him?

Wall, Beal, Otto and Oubre are young. Gortat isn't and he's good and has value for a team that could win now.

Would Indy give up Myles Turner plus the expirings in Mahinmi and Budinger? George and Hill are so good that they could win the east if they upgraded in the right spots.

Houston is also an intriguing option. They don't look like a contender at the moment, but they did last spring. With Howard able to bolt this summer, could we send out Sessions and Gortat for Lawson and a some of their young talent. Could we possibly get Capela?

Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams and a pick? I doubt Charlotte goes for that.

[nate33]

Speaking of Gortat, is it time to trade him?

Wall, Beal, Otto and Oubre are young. Gortat isn't and he's good and has value for a team that could win now.

Would Indy give up Myles Turner plus the expirings in Mahinmi and Budinger? George and Hill are so good that they could win the east if they upgraded in the right spots.

Houston is also an intriguing option. They don't look like a contender at the moment, but they did last spring. With Howard able to bolt this summer, could we send out Sessions and Gortat for Lawson and a some of their young talent. Could we possibly get Capela?

Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams and a pick? I doubt Charlotte goes for that.

I'd love any of those scenarios fishercob. I'm not sure if Gortat has that kind of value though. We managed to acquire him for just a mid-round pick - and that was 2.5 years ago.

The most plausible deal is probably the Indy one for Myles Turner. Myles is a talented prospect, but, as is typical for 19-year-old bigs, he won't be helping them this year or really that much next year either. Indy might legitimately be a title contender if they make that deal happen so there's a real argument to do it.

We could tank the rest of the year and finish with a pick around 8th or so. Then add one youngish free agent like Terrence Jones (plus Sato) and we will have reloaded with youth:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Oubre
SF Porter
PF Jones/2014 lotto pick
C Turner

There would still be plenty of cap room left for a few wily vets to round out the roster. Dudley on a 2-year deal would be nice. Maybe Nene too.