Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[Dark Faze]

No way Indy does that.

Dallas might be interested, but they don't have any contracts we'd want that could make the salaries work, even if they included a first.

One deal I've been thinking about is if it would be worth it to us to move Gortat and a 1st for Marc Gasol. Can't see Memphis being in a position to say no to that, but Marc is having a bit of a down year and is only a year younger than Marc. If his brothers anything to go by though--he could have a lot of legs left in him. The guy is also making 20 million a year now.

[thricethefun]

Speaking of Gortat, is it time to trade him?

Wall, Beal, Otto and Oubre are young. Gortat isn't and he's good and has value for a team that could win now.

Would Indy give up Myles Turner plus the expirings in Mahinmi and Budinger? George and Hill are so good that they could win the east if they upgraded in the right spots.

Houston is also an intriguing option. They don't look like a contender at the moment, but they did last spring. With Howard able to bolt this summer, could we send out Sessions and Gortat for Lawson and a some of their young talent. Could we possibly get Capela?

Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams and a pick? I doubt Charlotte goes for that.

Why would Indy give up Mahinmi (who has been better than Gortat this year) and their lottery pick for Gortat?

[fishercob]

Speaking of Gortat, is it time to trade him?

Wall, Beal, Otto and Oubre are young. Gortat isn't and he's good and has value for a team that could win now.

Would Indy give up Myles Turner plus the expirings in Mahinmi and Budinger? George and Hill are so good that they could win the east if they upgraded in the right spots.

Houston is also an intriguing option. They don't look like a contender at the moment, but they did last spring. With Howard able to bolt this summer, could we send out Sessions and Gortat for Lawson and a some of their young talent. Could we possibly get Capela?

Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams and a pick? I doubt Charlotte goes for that.

I'd love any of those scenarios fishercob. I'm not sure if Gortat has that kind of value though. We managed to acquire him for just a mid-round pick - and that was 2.5 years ago.

The most plausible deal is probably the Indy one for Myles Turner. Myles is a talented prospect, but, as is typical for 19-year-old bigs, he won't be helping them this year or really that much next year either. Indy might legitimately be a title contender if they make that deal happen so there's a real argument to do it.

We could tank the rest of the year and finish with a pick around 8th or so. Then add one youngish free agent like Terrence Jones (plus Sato) and we will have reloaded with youth:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Oubre
SF Porter
PF Jones/2014 lotto pick
C Turner

There would still be plenty of cap room left for a few wily vets to round out the roster. Dudley on a 2-year deal would be nice. Maybe Nene too.

First and foremost, I dont want Nene back next year. I mean, if it's for peanuts on a team that has KD, I'd hold my nose and accept it, but no. To expect anything from that guy at this point is completely insane. Looking forward to moving on from Nene.

Secondly, I think Gortat's perceived value is higher than when we dealt for him. He's had big moments on national TV, produced in the playoffs etc. He's signed at a very favorable contract for someone with a win now window.

I wouldn't go into Franchise Tank Mode. We'd likely miss the playoffs, but i'm not 100% sure. We'll see who gets hurt in the East and who comes down to earth, etc. If we miss them, so be it.

This summer, I'd throw the max at Hassan Whiteside -- sell him on coming to a team where he;d be the front court focal point and surrounded by a young core. If he and Turner can grow together, great. If not, weither would be movable on their respective deals.

[Dark Faze]

Hassan isn't going to leave Miami. They are going to offer him the max and he's had too many hit and misses with other squads to give up on a place that finally worked out for him.

[nate33]

First and foremost, I dont want Nene back next year. I mean, if it's for peanuts on a team that has KD, I'd hold my nose and accept it, but no. To expect anything from that guy at this point is completely insane. Looking forward to moving on from Nene.

Secondly, I think Gortat's perceived value is higher than when we dealt for him. He's had big moments on national TV, produced in the playoffs etc. He's signed at a very favorable contract for someone with a win now window.

I wouldn't go into Franchise Tank Mode. We'd likely miss the playoffs, but i'm not 100% sure. We'll see who gets hurt in the East and who comes down to earth, etc. If we miss them, so be it.

This summer, I'd throw the max at Hassan Whiteside -- sell him on coming to a team where he;d be the front court focal point and surrounded by a young core. If he and Turner can grow together, great. If not, weither would be movable on their respective deals.

I don't disagree with much of this. Certainly I wouldn't pay much for Nene. But I was looking for the type of guy who can still play well in spurts, but is old enough to not mind stepping aside when Turner takes over. I think Nene is in the right time of his career to fill that role. Other options would work too. Is Zaza Pachulia a free agent this summer?

And by tank, I don't mean that we should actively try to lose games, but I would endorse a shift in goals whereby we play guys like Turner and Oubre a bit more than we otherwise would. We're already ranked 10th in the East with Gortat. Presumably, we'd have trouble cracking the top 8 without him.

[payitforward]

I'm not retyping a relitigation of Okariza. Over at the blog, I wrote at least one piece about why it was a bad trade. There were a number of options available to the team that would have brought on young players with a future, added depth and given the team something to build with, as well as add a grizzled veteran up front. I wrote another piece blasting the trade to get Gortat, which also seems applicable.

I agreed with you when the trade took place that Okariza was a bad move. But in hindsight, seeing the players that were available, I no longer have that position.

Basically, the alternate timeline theory goes something like this:
2012 Offseason: Instead of the Okariza trade in 2012, we buy out Rashard Lewis, which frees up enough cap room to trade Booker for Ryan Anderson.

2012/13 Season: Our record is worse after the 2012/13 campaign, but it doesn't matter because in our actual timeline, we lucked out in the lottery and got the #3 pick anyhow.

2013 Offseason: We draft Porter. The rest of Lewis' buyout comes off the books. We use raw cap room to acquire Gortat, whom Phoenix was looking to move. Therefore, we don't have to cough up our 2014 draft pick.

2013/14 Season: Ariza was a better player in 2013/14 than Ryan Anderson, so chances are, we don't make the playoffs, or if we do, we don't get out of the first round.

2014 Offseason: We have a pick, but it's late lotto or mid-teens. There really isn't anyone good in that range in this draft. Maybe we land a guy like Jusuf Nurkic. Ariza probably still bolts and we probably still replace him with Pierce. We don't sign Humphries since we have Ryan Anderson

2014/15 Season: Probably about as good as our actual 2014/15 season. It's the same basic roster with Anderson replacing Humphries. (Anderson had some injury issues and wasn't all THAT good this year.) In the playoffs, Anderson's presence doesn't matter because Pierce moved to the 4 as Porter emerged.

2015 Offseason: Nothing much different

Current: we have the same basic team except Anderson replaces Humphries. That's an upgrade, but it's only temporary as Anderson comes off the books this offseason anyhow.

The net difference is the presence of Nurkic as a backup center, and Anderson on the team this year. That would help us this season but would have no tangible effect in the long term. On the downside, we would not have done as well in the 2013/14 season and who knows what difference that would have made to the development of Wall and Beal. We also don't know if Porter would have emerged in the playoffs last year if Anderson was still on the team forcing Pierce to play primarily SF.

Given that you've written the above imaginary scenario, there's no question it supports your position. But... that's what it is -- an imaginary scenario.

For all that, you are leaving out a lot even from your point of view:

1. Anderson vs. Ariza in 2013-14: Ryan Anderson was injured *that year* not the following. In 2012-13, he and Ariza played at about the same level. In 2013-14, there was little to choose between them, but Anderson was injured. Would he have been injured playing for us? Who knows. Ariza played much better for us than either at NO or for Houston since he left. Was that the so-called "Wall effect?" In which case, maybe Anderson too would have seen his 3pt % jump? Who knows. If so, would we have *won* that R2 series? Who knows? If he'd been here the following year, would we have beaten Atlanta? Who knows.

2. Gortat/cap-room, etc. -- We traded $19m in cap room (plus a pick) for Okariza. Trading cap room for Ariza and then for Gortat would have left us @$7m to work with. Maybe we get Isaiah Thomas instead of a terrible Maynor. Maybe we get a solid young big instead of the corpse of Al Harrington. We do have Kyle O'Quinn. We do have a 2014 R1 pick. We are a *very* different team and a much younger one with a number of assets that are still developing. Hell, since we don't have two front court players coming right at the 2012 draft, maybe Ernie picks someone other than Sato -- e.g. Draymond Green or Will Barton or Jae Crowder -- who knows?

And, with Anderson coming off the books, as you say, all of a sudden we have even more cap room instead of Kris Humphries.

Again, it's a very different Wizards world if we don't do the Okariza trade; there doesn't seem to be any reason to think we'd have been worse the 2 following seasons, and there's good reason to think we'd be better this year.

Of course, my scenario is just as counter-factual as yours; it has no evidentiary value, again like yours. But, from the Okariza trade itself we didn't get much benefit we couldn't have gotten even if we *did* sign Anderson. Not to mention that there were other paths we might have taken as well. It was a bad trade and it's a big part of why we are where we are today in mediocrity land -- with, for example, Boston, Orlando and Detroit all having swept past us in their rebuilds.

[fishercob]

Speaking of Gortat, is it time to trade him?

Wall, Beal, Otto and Oubre are young. Gortat isn't and he's good and has value for a team that could win now.

Would Indy give up Myles Turner plus the expirings in Mahinmi and Budinger? George and Hill are so good that they could win the east if they upgraded in the right spots.

Houston is also an intriguing option. They don't look like a contender at the moment, but they did last spring. With Howard able to bolt this summer, could we send out Sessions and Gortat for Lawson and a some of their young talent. Could we possibly get Capela?

Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams and a pick? I doubt Charlotte goes for that.

Why would Indy give up Mahinmi (who has been better than Gortat this year) and their lottery pick for Gortat?

I hear you -- Mahinmi's been playing great. But over their career's Gortat has been much better. Mahinmi is the kind of guy who gets marginalized in a playoff series because of his limited skill set; he's also prone to being intentionally fouled because he can't shoot free throws well. The fact that Gortat is locked in to a good deal also gives Indy some certitude when trying to make plans this summer.


Interestingly, the numbers also work if the Wizards throw in Dudley -- which would be a huge boon to the Pacers. If we are giving up both Dudley and Gortat, I think I'd want more than Turner though. Maybe Indy's first too.

EDIT: The trade almost works without Dudley and Mahinmi too -- $80k off. So if Indy want's to keep Mahinmi, they could.

[Ruzious]

How bout this one with Indy - We trade Beal and Oubre to Indy for George Hill (age 29) and Myles Turner (include Gooden to make it CBA friendly). Hill quietly had a great year last season but has taken a lesser role this season - with George dominating.

[LyricalRico]

How bout this one with Indy - We trade Beal and Oubre to Indy for George Hill (age 29) and Myles Turner (include Gooden to make it CBA friendly). Hill quietly had a great year last season but has taken a lesser role this season - with George dominating.

Interesting, but feels like Indy comes out the clear winner. I take it you feel like Turner's upside is higher enough over Oubre that it's worth the Beal for Hill swap?

[TGW]

Would we trade Oubre+filler for Noel? Seems as though Philly would like a young wing with some upside. We desperately need a young big man to groom.

[Ruzious]

How bout this one with Indy - We trade Beal and Oubre to Indy for George Hill (age 29) and Myles Turner (include Gooden to make it CBA friendly). Hill quietly had a great year last season but has taken a lesser role this season - with George dominating.

Interesting, but feels like Indy comes out the clear winner. I take it you feel like Turner's upside is higher enough over Oubre that it's worth the Beal for Hill swap?

Not just that - I think Hill is a little better player than Beal at this point in their careers - thought that could change if Beal improves. Money is also a BIG factor - and it's gotta be when you're projecting Beal. It's still being reported that Beal will command a max contract - which he hasn't proven he's even close to being worth. Hill makes $8 mil a year. So having Hill rather than Beal gives them more opportunity to add a supporting cast. And another factor is making the playoffs. I think the combo of Hill and Turner gives us a better chance than Oubre and Beal. And yet another factor is attracting Durant. Durant will want to win now and in the future. The team NEEDS some bigs - they have zero... count them... zero young bigs on the team. Durant may personally like Oubre and Beal, but he'll want to win wherever he goes, so putting together a supporting cast for Durant is more important than having players that Durant personally likes.

[nate33]

Would we trade Oubre+filler for Noel? Seems as though Philly would like a young wing with some upside. We desperately need a young big man to groom.

Yes. I would do that. Not only does us give us a big man of the future, but it makes us better immediately which would inject new life into KD2DC. The downside is that the payroll would blow up in 2017, so 2016 would be our last reach chance at adding a top free agent.

[Dark Faze]

I'd rather just give up a 1st

[nate33]

I'd rather just give up a 1st

With the way our season is going, it appears probable, if not likely, that our pick in the draft might get us a better prospect than Kelly Oubre. There's also the issue of Oubre playing a position that we already have manned by Porter, Beal and hopefully Durant.

Even if we don't land Durant, if we traded Oubre for Noel, and then drafted a PF with our lotto pick, we could have a starting 5 composed of young, recently drafted players:

Wall
Beal
Porter
2016 1st
Noel

At least that's a working foundation. We'd also have Sato and Gortat (who we could trade for value), and a ton of 2016 cap room. Hmmm. What if we signed Sullinger and Fournier to go with that group?

[TheSecretWeapon]

I'd trade Oubre for Noel. Noel is having a terrible season, but he was okay last year and I think he'd do well coming off the bench behind Gortat.

[fishercob]

I'd trade Oubre for Noel. Noel is having a terrible season, but he was okay last year and I think he'd do well coming off the bench behind Gortat.

I'm not so sure. The fact that Noel is due an extension so soon makes him less palatable. There's also the fact that wings are hugely important in the modern game; I'd need some real convincing that based on what we know today tthat Noel is not only the better prospect than Oubre, but that he's so much better that it's worth sacrificing Oubre's really cheap years.

Rather than swapping prospects for prospects, I think the Wizards should move older productive guys (Gortat and Dudley) for younger cheaper talent, and build the roster properly.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I'd trade Oubre for Noel. Noel is having a terrible season, but he was okay last year and I think he'd do well coming off the bench behind Gortat.

I'm not so sure. The fact that Noel is due an extension so soon makes him less palatable. There's also the fact that wings are hugely important in the modern game; I'd need some real convincing that based on what we know today tthat Noel is not only the better prospect than Oubre, but that he's so much better that it's worth sacrificing Oubre's really cheap years.

Rather than swapping prospects for prospects, I think the Wizards should move older productive guys (Gortat and Dudley) for younger cheaper talent, and build the roster properly.

I'm fine with that too.

[nate33]

I'd trade Oubre for Noel. Noel is having a terrible season, but he was okay last year and I think he'd do well coming off the bench behind Gortat.

I'm not so sure. The fact that Noel is due an extension so soon makes him less palatable. There's also the fact that wings are hugely important in the modern game; I'd need some real convincing that based on what we know today tthat Noel is not only the better prospect than Oubre, but that he's so much better that it's worth sacrificing Oubre's really cheap years.

Rather than swapping prospects for prospects, I think the Wizards should move older productive guys (Gortat and Dudley) for younger cheaper talent, and build the roster properly.

Wings are important, but so is having a mobile big man who can protect the paint as well as guard the pick-and-roll and make switches late in the shot clock. Noel was very impressive defensively last year for such a young player.

His offense is atrocious, but I think part of that has to do with him playing on a team with no spacing and no decent PG. He's merely a garbage man on offense, and he's only going to thrive in a system with 4 other half-decent offensive threats so he can be a 5th option roll man.

[pcbothwel]

Nate,

That is why I have no interest in Noel as a key cog for building a team. His skillset/limitations requires you to have to many other caveats with the other 4 players. He is the Anti-Otto/Draymond... who can literally thrive with any team
He might work well with someone like D-Mo (Offensive 4/5 that has good positional/Man Defense), but I'll take my chances on hoping for Paul George lite (Oubre).

[Dark Faze]

Would be a difficult decision to make if only Oubre for Noel was on the table--alternatively I'd prefer to give up a protected 1st.

I'd probably give up Porter before Oubre also..