PC Board OT thread

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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1781 » by Dr Spaceman » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:32 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:Did Rondo and other people in the NBA know the ref was gay before he came out to it publicly? If so, then Rondo is truly classless for saying that.


A similar incident occurred between Doc Rivers and Kennedy a few years back. I'd say it's almost certain Rondo knew exactly what he was doing.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1782 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:34 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:Did Rondo and other people in the NBA know the ref was gay before he came out to it publicly? If so, then Rondo is truly classless for saying that.


A similar incident occurred between Doc Rivers and Kennedy a few years back. I'd say it's almost certain Rondo knew exactly what he was doing.


That's what I figured, that guys like Doc Rivers would have told him about it.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1783 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:42 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:Did Rondo and other people in the NBA know the ref was gay before he came out to it publicly? If so, then Rondo is truly classless for saying that.


A similar incident occurred between Doc Rivers and Kennedy a few years back. I'd say it's almost certain Rondo knew exactly what he was doing.


Both Doc and Kennedy seemed to have confirmed that Doc did not use any gay slurs during that incident. Now it seems like pretty much the whole league knew so I'm not claiming Rondo didn't know.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1784 » by SideshowBob » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:53 pm

Anybody else follow the Box Office? I do, both domestic and international, about as hardcore as I do with the NBA, so the holidays are usually a busy time due to a swath of films with leggy runs. This one's obviously a bit more exceptional due to the alignment of days (essentially 2 holiday mid-week periods and 3 holiday weekends, essentially 17 consecutive days of prime movie-going conditions in the US) and that other reason, heh.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1785 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:07 pm

I have a box-office history as well. I think whatever seems high for a Star Wars prediction it will break (domestic). All signs for biggest opening weekend ever followed by holiday season weekdays and a film looks like people love

Do you follow awards season also?
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1786 » by SideshowBob » Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:25 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:I have a box-office history as well. I think whatever seems high for a Star Wars prediction it will break (domestic). All signs for biggest opening weekend ever followed by holiday season weekdays and a film looks like people love


Below was my preliminary prediction on Tuesday night (which I'll update tonight). Like I said in the post, I think I'm in the middle/conservative. OW record looks done (granted its a 3.5 day opening, not 3-day +midnight like pre-TDKR shooting or 3-day like the old days). I think there's clearly potential for higher than what I'm predicting (given the ticket prices can very reasonably be higher than I'm predicting and if that happens, the OW attendance record wouldn't be touched until we hit >$250M.

Also might re-evaluate legs; reception looks like it'll be pretty strong.

Spoiler:
Preliminary Predictions (will do a final adjustment on Thursday evening)

45.0M Previews
62.5M Friday
65.0M Saturday
57.5M Sunday

185.0M Fri-Sun
230.0M OW

OW Format Breakdown (Gross %)

47% 2D
32.5% RealD 3D
11.0% IMAX 2D/3D
8.5% PLF

Estimated 21.7M tickets sold without accounting for TFA price hike or adult/child split.  I would consider this even in attendance with TA/TDK/SM3, while noting that this has 7PM previews as opposed to proper midnights for the other 3. 

I think I might go higher - my preview number seems super conservative right now, 50M+ doesn't look very difficult, but it just feels so out there.  That 100M presale breakdown is just pushing me towards backloading over the holidays though, we might hit 120M by Thursday in presales, with only a little more than half coming from OW so it just seems more and more apparent that we're looking at a monster BO week instead of just weekend, but that demand has to shift over from somewhere.

I'll certainly be on my toes though, 250M+ wouldn't surprise me and as I've said, I think the OW attendance record might finally fall here.

Domestic

Expecting a 4.0-4.5 multiplier from Fri-Sun (OW minus previews).  We're looking primed for several 25M+ weekdays next week (more probably 30M) and a monster Christmas Day.  2nd weekend record seems like a good bet, as does the following weekend.

785.0M DOM (4.0)
877.5M DOM (4.5)

Both of those feel so high but that's the nature of this I suppose.  I'm expecting the average price to obviously trend downwards over the course of the run as 3D wanes, so expecting right around 80.0M tickets for domestic attendance (give or take a few million).  Again, will update Thursday evening.

Overseas and Worldwide

425.0M Europe
180.0M East Asia (SK/HK/Japan/etc.)
175.0M Latin America (incl. Mexico)
150.0M China
45.0M Australia & New Zealand
25.0M Middle East
15.0M South Asia
10.0M Africa
25.0M Other/Anything I missed

1050.0M OS

1835.0M WW

I think I stayed relatively conservative here (especially China), I'll be wading through the OS board over the next two days and try to update myself as much as possible on the prospects in the major markets and modify.  


Do you follow awards season also?


Nah, mostly casually. I'll try to catch the films as best as I can but its definitely not as dedicated of a following as the BO/NBA.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1787 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Dec 18, 2015 2:49 am

SideshowBob wrote:Anybody else follow the Box Office? I do, both domestic and international, about as hardcore as I do with the NBA, so the holidays are usually a busy time due to a swath of films with leggy runs. This one's obviously a bit more exceptional due to the alignment of days (essentially 2 holiday mid-week periods and 3 holiday weekends, essentially 17 consecutive days of prime movie-going conditions in the US) and that other reason, heh.


I've followed it big picture for close to 20 years. Been a long time since I've really paid attention to opening weekend box office though.

My expectation is that Star Wars will break all the opening records, and given the positive Tomatoes will have pretty good legs, but I don't expect it to surpass Avatar for the #1 worldwide grosser.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1788 » by SideshowBob » Fri Dec 18, 2015 2:54 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:Anybody else follow the Box Office? I do, both domestic and international, about as hardcore as I do with the NBA, so the holidays are usually a busy time due to a swath of films with leggy runs. This one's obviously a bit more exceptional due to the alignment of days (essentially 2 holiday mid-week periods and 3 holiday weekends, essentially 17 consecutive days of prime movie-going conditions in the US) and that other reason, heh.


I've followed it big picture for close to 20 years. Been a long time since I've really paid attention to opening weekend box office though.

My expectation is that Star Wars will break all the opening records, and given the positive Tomatoes will have pretty good legs, but I don't expect it to surpass Avatar for the #1 worldwide grosser.


Yeah I really don't see that happening either. Avatar was a perfect storm of crazy 3D shares overseas + breaking out in both developed/developing markets.

For this, interest level in developing markets isn't quite as high, we've seen more recent franchise films do better in that regard, but it will reign supreme in Western Europe. China's a wlidcard but the HK opening was already weaker than expected and buzz isn't quite up to par there (especially compared to the three breakouts from summer) so I'm erring conservative there.

I think my Tuesday 1050M overseas projection is still a bit low - Europe will probably go higher as will Australia, but other than that this will just be a mega-grosser internationally, not all-time level.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1789 » by RSCD3_ » Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:58 am

I'm starting to believe the nba hates the raptors

This is like the 7th game where there was an egregiously bad call in the final moments
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1790 » by SideshowBob » Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:00 am

This was my final Star Wars prediction. Spent a bit more time on the OS grosses.

Spoiler:
Final Predictions

55.0M Previews
65.0M Friday (5.0M Morning/15.0M Matinees/45.0M Evenings)
62.5M Saturday (-3.8%) (10.0M Mornings/20.0M Matinees/32.5M Evenings)
55.0M Sunday (-12.0%) (10.0M Mornings/20.0M Matinees/25.0M Evenings)

182.5M Fri-Sun
237.5M OW

OW Format Gross Breakdown

47% 2D (114.0M)
32.5% RealD 3D (77.2M)
11.0% IMAX 2D/3D (26.1M)
8.5% PLF (20.2M)

Estimated 22.5M tickets sold without accounting for TFA price hike or adult/child split, and assuming 3D/IMAX/PLF isn't higher.  I would consider this a very marginal attendance record over TA/TDK/SM3, while noting that this has 7PM previews as opposed to proper midnights for the other 3.  Also depends on over/under 25 splits, SM3 might be pretty close once adjusting for youth tickets.

I feel like I'm outside the conservative range now, though might still be low for previews.  50M+ looks like it'll be easy.  That 100M presale breakdown (probably higher now) is just pushing me towards backloading over the holidays though, it just seems more and more apparent that we're looking at a monster BO week instead of just weekend, but that demand has to shift over from somewhere.

Wouldn't surprise me if I'm high, wouldn't surprise me if I'm low.  

Domestic

Given early response, I'm expecting a 4.0-4.5 multiplier from Fri-Sun (OW minus previews).  We're looking primed for several 25M+ weekdays next week (more probably 30M) and a monster Christmas Day.  2nd weekend record seems like a good bet, as does the following weekend.

782.5M DOM (4.0)
874.0M DOM (4.5)

Both of those feel so high but that's the nature of this I suppose.  Sticking with the lower end for now, 782.5M.  I'm expecting the average price to obviously trend downwards over the course of the run as 3D wanes, so expecting right around 80.0M tickets for domestic attendance (give or take a few million). 

Overseas and Worldwide

600.0M Europe
150.0M Latin America (incl. Mexico)
150.0M China
140.0M East Asia (SK/HK/Japan/etc.)
100.0M Australia & New Zealand
30.0M Middle East
20.0M South Asia
10.0M Africa

1200.0M OS

1982.5M WW
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1791 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Dec 18, 2015 6:03 am

SideshowBob wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:Anybody else follow the Box Office? I do, both domestic and international, about as hardcore as I do with the NBA, so the holidays are usually a busy time due to a swath of films with leggy runs. This one's obviously a bit more exceptional due to the alignment of days (essentially 2 holiday mid-week periods and 3 holiday weekends, essentially 17 consecutive days of prime movie-going conditions in the US) and that other reason, heh.


I've followed it big picture for close to 20 years. Been a long time since I've really paid attention to opening weekend box office though.

My expectation is that Star Wars will break all the opening records, and given the positive Tomatoes will have pretty good legs, but I don't expect it to surpass Avatar for the #1 worldwide grosser.


Yeah I really don't see that happening either. Avatar was a perfect storm of crazy 3D shares overseas + breaking out in both developed/developing markets.

For this, interest level in developing markets isn't quite as high, we've seen more recent franchise films do better in that regard, but it will reign supreme in Western Europe. China's a wlidcard but the HK opening was already weaker than expected and buzz isn't quite up to par there (especially compared to the three breakouts from summer) so I'm erring conservative there.

I think my Tuesday 1050M projection is still a bit low - Europe will probably go higher as will Australia, but other than that this will just be a mega-grosser internationally, not all-time level.


No kidding, that's incredibly low for a Star Wars film. That's lower than what Minions did.

Star Wars is all over the place and it has no competition this time around of the year. It's going to be around Furious 7 and Avengers 2 at the very least.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1792 » by SideshowBob » Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:07 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
I've followed it big picture for close to 20 years. Been a long time since I've really paid attention to opening weekend box office though.

My expectation is that Star Wars will break all the opening records, and given the positive Tomatoes will have pretty good legs, but I don't expect it to surpass Avatar for the #1 worldwide grosser.


Yeah I really don't see that happening either. Avatar was a perfect storm of crazy 3D shares overseas + breaking out in both developed/developing markets.

For this, interest level in developing markets isn't quite as high, we've seen more recent franchise films do better in that regard, but it will reign supreme in Western Europe. China's a wlidcard but the HK opening was already weaker than expected and buzz isn't quite up to par there (especially compared to the three breakouts from summer) so I'm erring conservative there.

I think my Tuesday 1050M projection is still a bit low - Europe will probably go higher as will Australia, but other than that this will just be a mega-grosser internationally, not all-time level.


No kidding, that's incredibly low for a Star Wars film. That's lower than what Minions did.

Star Wars is all over the place and it has no competition this time around of the year. It's going to be around Furious 7 and Avengers 2 at the very least.


That was overseas only, not including the US (785M, so 1.85B overall). Anyway I put some more time into the overseas markets the last two days and upped to 1200M (again + roughly 800 from US so 2B overall).
But in his home dwelling...the hi-top faded warrior is revered. *Smack!* The sound of his palm blocking the basketball... the sound of thousands rising, roaring... the sound of "get that sugar honey iced tea outta here!"
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1793 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri Dec 18, 2015 6:24 pm

I saw it on opening last night. The only Star Wars movies I had seen prior was Return of the Jedi and one of the prequels which I didn't finish. The movie was a movie and I don't mean that as an insult. Rather than simply consist of fan service or special effects it made an attempt to tell a story. It wasn't great but I would still recommend people see it opening weekend just to see the rush of a crowd. There were huge cheers in the theater when the LucasFilms emblem appeared.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1794 » by Dr Spaceman » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:37 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:I saw it on opening last night. The only Star Wars movies I had seen prior was Return of the Jedi and one of the prequels which I didn't finish. The movie was a movie and I don't mean that as an insult. Rather than simply consist of fan service or special effects it made an attempt to tell a story. It wasn't great but I would still recommend people see it opening weekend just to see the rush of a crowd. There were huge cheers in the theater when the LucasFilms emblem appeared.


Agree with the crowd atmosphere. Lots of fun. Everyone in the theater cheered when
Spoiler:
Han
was introduced. Lots of people dressed up too.

I'll go ahead and disagree though, I thought the movie was great. Not a classic, per se, but for the fantasy/sci-fi genre this is as good as it gets. They did an amazing job of capturing the feel of the original trilogy and the score/action sequences/casting were all on point. I'll definitely watch again and can't wait for the continuation of this story (and this is impressive considering my excitement level for this one was at 0).

I will say there were a few jokes/scenes that really relied on previous knowledge of the series, and they went hard for nostalgia a lot to the time. I think the movies will get better as they diverge more from the source material and let these characters breathe (especially the pilot, he was fantastic but didn't get nearly enough screen time).
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1795 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:06 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:I saw it on opening last night. The only Star Wars movies I had seen prior was Return of the Jedi and one of the prequels which I didn't finish. The movie was a movie and I don't mean that as an insult. Rather than simply consist of fan service or special effects it made an attempt to tell a story. It wasn't great but I would still recommend people see it opening weekend just to see the rush of a crowd. There were huge cheers in the theater when the LucasFilms emblem appeared.


Agree with the crowd atmosphere. Lots of fun. Everyone in the theater cheered when
Spoiler:
Han
was introduced. Lots of people dressed up too.

I'll go ahead and disagree though, I thought the movie was great. Not a classic, per se, but for the fantasy/sci-fi genre this is as good as it gets. They did an amazing job of capturing the feel of the original trilogy and the score/action sequences/casting were all on point. I'll definitely watch again and can't wait for the continuation of this story (and this is impressive considering my excitement level for this one was at 0).

I will say there were a few jokes/scenes that really relied on previous knowledge of the series, and they went hard for nostalgia a lot to the time. I think the movies will get better as they diverge more from the source material and let these characters breathe (especially the pilot, he was fantastic but didn't get nearly enough screen time).


I am not a huge fan of blockbuster movies but I tried to evaluate the movie on its own terms. The pacing was okay and the battle scenes were well shot. The story though was very threadbare. A lot of moments in the movie that annoyed me wouldn't register with other

Spoiler:
- The hug between the turncoat stormtrooper and young jedi is an example. I know they want the PG-13 rating but for the benefit of adults in the room can we have at least have a kiss at that moment. The attraction between the two was obvious and it was a natural time for it to occur. Instead we get a very chaste hug and stare.
- The cut away from Han after his death. Instead of showing other characters reaction they should have stayed on those two. The director didn't show any trust in the intelligence of the movie.
- The annoying phony dialogue during torture/interrogation which is ubiqiquitous in big money films. It is rarely funny and almost never interesting. Instead it is just a cheap way to try to show the hero can stay calm under pressure. It is a tired film cliche that needs to be retired.


It wasn't a bad movie. It was above average for blockbusters but it wasn't anything special even limited to the category.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1796 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:23 pm

I heard the movie was just a rehash of the original Star Wars on top of being a nostalgiafest
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1797 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat Dec 19, 2015 3:28 am

JVG is right for killing the NBA with the hack a shaq situation. It isn't fun to watch.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1798 » by euliss » Mon Dec 21, 2015 10:51 am

Random, but i started watching The Wire recently and the first time i saw Lester i thought it was a young Bill Russell :rofl:
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1799 » by Dr Positivity » Tue Dec 22, 2015 6:54 am

sp6r=underrated wrote:JVG is right for killing the NBA with the hack a shaq situation. It isn't fun to watch.


For me the answer is let the refs call a delay of game tech. Because that's exactly what it's doing.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1800 » by spearsy23 » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:19 am

Dr Positivity wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:JVG is right for killing the NBA with the hack a shaq situation. It isn't fun to watch.


For me the answer is let the refs call a delay of game tech. Because that's exactly what it's doing.

I always go back to the simplest solution: Make your damn free throws.

Also, I enjoy watching it.
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