Is Nikola Vucevic Hurting the Magic?

[kdolan21]

Took a look at the Magic's on/off numbers so far this season and Vucevic's on/off numbers are pretty terrible: every major minutes guys has a better net rating without him on the floor than with him on the floor. Link here https://hoopsexcursionwordpresscom.wordpress.com/2015/12/17/it-looks-like-everybody-on-the-magic-is-doing-better-without-vucevic-on-the-floor/

[MagicMadness]

I wonder what his on/off numbers looked like the past few years, when our team wasn't winning?

Either way, interesting data.

[Skin]

Dang, those are some ugly numbers. ...but it could be worse. lol

I don't think he hurts us as much as those numbers reflect, but I think we can improve. He's a frequent trade candidate in my thoughts. If packaging him with someone else can get us an upgrade, I'd be for it.

[seeingstars]

Very intriguing. 20 more games, crunch the same number and we'll see if the sample size was large enough.

A fun note, Frye's didn't change one way or the other

[kdolan21]

I wonder what his on/off numbers looked like the past few years, when our team wasn't winning?

Either way, interesting data.

I looked at last year's a bit and he still has a negative overall effect (net rating of -6.0 with him on the court, -4.9 with him off the court). The player by player numbers were a little bit messier, but I think Channing Frye has had a lot to do with that. Last year he had a difference in on/off net rating of -11.5, while this year he has a difference of +15.0. Since Frye replaces Vucevic fairly frequently that would have a big effect on Vooch's on/off numbers. While I think both on/off numbers for Frye are a bit extreme, I would guess that this year's on/off is closer to the truth, as it's more in line with his last year in Phoenix, where he had an RPM of +5.09.

[ezzzp]

Aren't On/Off numbers notoriously noisy and not good indicators? especially player to player relationships...and even more-so for players that are the focal point of team offense?

How does that On/Off stat look when comparing other Magic starters to other players?

I think i've heard it explained this way:

If player X plays next to player O, and he gets less opportunity to shine because O is better player, then player X's numbers are worse when player O is on the court, but when player O is off then opportunity for player X to have better numbers increases....or something like that.

[kdolan21]

Aren't On/Off numbers notoriously noisy and not good indicators? especially player to player relationships...and even more-so for players that are the focal point of team offense?

How does that On/Off stat look when comparing other Magic starters to other players?

I think i've heard it explained this way:

If player X plays next to player O, and he gets less opportunity to shine because O is better player, then player X's numbers are worse when player O is on the court, but when player O is off then opportunity for player X to have better numbers increases....or something like that.

you're right that on/off numbers are definitely noisy but I think that they can definitely still be good indicators. I'm not sure I understand the bit about how on/off numbers are poor indicators due to player to player relationships and players who are the focal point of an offense.

What I think makes the data in the post a notable indicator is that it's not just Vucevic's on/off numbers that are bad, it's that every single major minutes guy's on/off numbers are worse with Vucevic on the court (except for Frye who has no change). If every player has a better net rating without Vucevic there's a pretty good chance there's something going on there. I looked at other guys with poor net ratings so far and while a few don't look great (I think Elfrid Payton wasn't great if I remember right) none of them rated nearly as poorly as Vucevic did.

[UCFJayBird]

A couple things I'd like to see.

1 - The number of minutes Vucevic is on the floor facing a majority of opposing team's starters.
2 - That number compared to other player's on the Magic.
3 - The number of minutes each Magic starter plays with each team member (what is being provided for Vucevic).

If Vucevic is primarily playing against the opposing teams best lineups, but other starters are getting into the game against the other teams bench and benefiting while we pull away, that's a result of playing weaker competition not by Vucevic being a drain on the team's production. Teams game plan for Vucevic more than probably any other player on the Magic right now, so when he goes out their game plan doesn't work as well and the Magic are able to distance themselves.

I'm not saying these numbers don't have merit, but I'd like to see more context built around it. Right now it's a pretty broad inference based on limited data. It completely ignores the competition that the team is facing when Vucevic is on the floor vs when he is off the floor.

[J-Ville Smoke]

I just find it hard to believe, based on the eye test, that a guy as efficient as Vooch, who has vastly improved his defensive game this year, could in any way be a net negative to our team.

I'm going to chalk this up as an anomaly and bury my head in the sand.

[OrlandO]

We're 8-3 since the lineup change... Vuc is our leading scorer/rebounder and he's 3rd on the team in assists during that stretch. Keep hurting the team, Vuc.

[OrlandoDream]

We have a winning record for the first time in 4-5 years, are currently the 7th seed int he playoffs, and 3 games away from the 1st seed. Stats like those are meaningless to me. If you think we are underachieving with Vuc, just imagine how much we would suck without him on he floor.

[tooler]

From looking at B-R, this seems to be all defense-related. Our ORtg improves +5.8 when he's on court. Our opponent's ORtg collapses when he goes off the court, likely due to the effect of Jason Smith and Dedmon playing against backup centers.

ESPN's DRPM has him as the 5th worst center in the league, though the number is still positive, I suppose due to the adjustments they make for centers (who are expected to have a bigger defensive impact). Better than Kanter, Okafor, and Bargnani at least!

It's all still very noisy. The team has been hovering around top 7 defensive efficiency overall the entire year with Vooch playing 30 MPG. That's all that matters right now. If a better option comes along then we can explore it.

[JF5]

Eye test wise I don't really see it...

[SOUL]

I mean eye test wise it is clearly evident some games. Mainly the ones where he was benched in favor of Jason Smith to better results. This only happened really after his knee injury though, and as of late he's picked it back up again on the defensive end.

I think people are being a little naive when they say they don't notice it though. Clearly even with his improved defense, it's not up to par with a lot of defensive centers in the league. We have a good defensive scheme, and it usually becomes better when Smith is on the floor.

I still think there is a lot of value with Vuc, but it's going to rely a lot on his ability to be active as a defender and get foul calls.

[MitchellUK]

I'm less worried about his defense this year - he seems more active - but Jesus, he's got to start to find a way to draw some contact on offense and getting opposing teams in foul trouble. His free throw rate is .118, which is his worst since his rookie year. Only Channing Frye on our roster is worse at getting to the line. 1.6 FTA/G is just not acceptable for a 7'0 center who takes 14 shots per game.

In fact, here is a list of 7-footers who have attempted more than 10 shots a game with a free throw rate worse that .150:

http://bkref.com/tiny/KkNvN

[SOUL]

I'm less worried about his defense this year - he seems more active - but Jesus, he's got to start to find a way to draw some contact on offense and getting opposing teams in foul trouble. His free throw rate is .118, which is his worst since his rookie year. Only Channing Frye on our roster is worse at getting to the line. 1.6 FTA/G is just not acceptable for a 7'0 center who takes 14 shots per game.

In fact, here is a list of 7-footers who have attempted more than 10 shots a game with a free throw rate worse that .150:

http://bkref.com/tiny/KkNvN

Great post. I continually harp on this because even when his offense is clicking, worse offensive players could have similar or better effects on the game because of his inability to draw foul calls more often.

[MitchellUK]

I'm less worried about his defense this year - he seems more active - but Jesus, he's got to start to find a way to draw some contact on offense and getting opposing teams in foul trouble. His free throw rate is .118, which is his worst since his rookie year. Only Channing Frye on our roster is worse at getting to the line. 1.6 FTA/G is just not acceptable for a 7'0 center who takes 14 shots per game.

In fact, here is a list of 7-footers who have attempted more than 10 shots a game with a free throw rate worse that .150:

http://bkref.com/tiny/KkNvN

Great post. I continually harp on this because even when his offense is clicking, worse offensive players could have similar or better effects on the game because of his inability to draw foul calls more often.

Exactly. In the modern NBA, simply hitting a decent number of your field goals isn't enough, especially when you're a main option. Either some of those FGs have to be threes, or you also have to be able to draw fouls, or preferably both.

[BadMofoPimp]

We're 8-3 since the lineup change... Vuc is our leading scorer/rebounder and he's 3rd on the team in assists during that stretch. Keep hurting the team, Vuc.

Damn Straight. Best player on the Magic is hurting the Magic. Now, I heard everything.

[Skin]

We're 8-3 since the lineup change... Vuc is our leading scorer/rebounder and he's 3rd on the team in assists during that stretch. Keep hurting the team, Vuc.

Damn Straight. Best player on the Magic is hurting the Magic. Now, I heard everything.

I love your ways!

[ezzzp]

Aren't On/Off numbers notoriously noisy and not good indicators? especially player to player relationships...and even more-so for players that are the focal point of team offense?

How does that On/Off stat look when comparing other Magic starters to other players?

I think i've heard it explained this way:

If player X plays next to player O, and he gets less opportunity to shine because O is better player, then player X's numbers are worse when player O is on the court, but when player O is off then opportunity for player X to have better numbers increases....or something like that.

you're right that on/off numbers are definitely noisy but I think that they can definitely still be good indicators. I'm not sure I understand the bit about how on/off numbers are poor indicators due to player to player relationships and players who are the focal point of an offense.

What I think makes the data in the post a notable indicator is that it's not just Vucevic's on/off numbers that are bad, it's that every single major minutes guy's on/off numbers are worse with Vucevic on the court (except for Frye who has no change). If every player has a better net rating without Vucevic there's a pretty good chance there's something going on there. I looked at other guys with poor net ratings so far and while a few don't look great (I think Elfrid Payton wasn't great if I remember right) none of them rated nearly as poorly as Vucevic did.

Did you do the same comparative analysis with other Magic starters that you did with Vuc? How did those numbers relate?