Building a deep team vs. superstar team

[flying_mollusk]

There has been a lot of debate lately about whether we should focus on developing superstars, or whether we should focus on winning games under Skiles. The pro-superstar folks aren’t technically wrong, because most NBA teams win titles with superstars. Looking at the last 15 title winners, only 2 teams have won the title without a player that has a PER of 22 or higher (min 1000 minutes):

2014 Spurs
2004 Pistons

However, what also makes those teams interesting is that they had an incredible amount of depth. It is often said that your top 8 players matter the most in the playoffs.

That Spurs team had 7 players with PERs higher than 15 (min 1000 min) in Duncan (21.1), Ginobili (20), Parker (18.9), Mills (18.7) Leonard (19.4), Splitter (16.5) Belinelli (15). That title Pistons team had 6 in Billups (19), Wallace (17.4), McDyess (17.2), Wallace (16.4), Prince (16.2) and Hamilton (16).

So I’m wondering 2 things.

1: How often has a team accumulated 8 players with PERs above 15 and NOT won an NBA title.

2: Do we have a realistic shot at accumulating a team with 8 players with PERs above 15, thereby making this the ultimate endgame for rebuild in the post-Dwight era.

The first question is hard to answer, because I’d have to go through a lot of teams. But I decided to moreso go look at teams that were recently considered “deep” but did not win a title.

Last year’s Hawks team is the first example. They only had 6 guys with PERs above 15, with a 7th in Korver that was on the cusp at 14.8. The recent iteration of the Grizzlies with Gasol and Randolph are also considered deep, and they have only had at most 5 guys with PERs over 15 in any given year.

So my question to the superstar people is to find a team that goes 8 deep that hasn’t won the NBA title. How about 7? Whats the rate if 7/8 PER player teams winning titles vs. the rate of superstar teams winning titles? Or put another way, is it just rare for teams to be able to accumulate this much talent, which is why superstars often win titles, but not always?

For the 2nd question, I do think we have a shot at it:

We already have 4 guys who are producing at PERs above 15 in Vuc, Harris, Vic and Gordon. I believe Payton will surpass 15 by the end of the year after his slow start. We should be bullish on Hezonja surpassing the 15 mark over the course of a year. That brings us to 6. Fournier and Nicholson are at a little above 14, so they could be contenders. We also have a draft pick in the Lakers pick, along with the ability to sign a FA via the increasing cap/shedding salary, as another way of adding another talent. I think we have a realistic shot at having 7 guys, and possibly 8, that reach this metric.

I think there is another way to look at this too. I like the rebuild strategy because we will be competitive, and not have to fear losing a superstar via another Dwightmare or Shaqmare or Tmacmare. Our guys still haven’t reached their potential. But we could also turn around and pounce if a true superstar does become available, and still not lose out on too many of our other 15+ PER guys. We really have some flexibility to work with here.

[Orlwillbeback]

Excellent post

[mr2good]

Agreed, excellent post!

It got me thinking about the high end of the PER. That Spurs team had 4 guys within a point of 20 PER or higher, I'm guessing that's just as important as the other 4 guys who were at 15 PER on the squad.

How close are we to having multiple players at 20 PER?

[seeingstars]

What's beautiful is well have depth along with star to Superstar potential. We're sitting pretty good right now.

[drsd]

I believe that GM Hennigan as having seen the current CBA as creating a change in the the nature of what a Championship roster needs to be. But that is now changed with the TV deal. A the change on the change makes it difficult to see that a champion should look like. Cuban has stated that with the new TV money a team would not be able to have three max guys at 30-40M deals. That's fairly ridiculous way of considering.

I still think GM Hennigan's original approach still makes sense. Balance and depth still seems to be an effective strategy. But the new TV money will allow LAL and NYK to purchase title contenders.


..

[Bensational]

1: How often has a team accumulated 8 players with PERs above 15 and NOT won an NBA title.

A quick look shows that the Spurs actually did that the following season. They had 8 guys with a PER of 15.5 or higher, and they got knocked out of the playoffs in Round 1.

So a follow up question could be: how many teams have had 8 guys with PERs above 8 in the playoffs and NOT won an NBA title? (In that case, the Spurs only had 7 guys with a PER of 16.5 or higher that year they got knocked out of Round 1).

I like your thinking though.

[Skin]

I think a deep team can beat a Superstar team, but I wouldn't lean heavily on a PER rating of 15 or higher to determine that.

Take the Mavs team that beat the Heat. I just looked it up and they have 4 guys who had a PER rating higher than 15. However, they had a veteran squad who's high BBIQ surpassed their physical gifts... Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, Peja Stojakovic, Deshawn Stevenson...

The Spurs team that beat the Heat was also lead by savvy vets who leaned on elite BBIQ, with guys playing their role and together playing as a team. Long term chemistry from playing with each other for years, allowing them to get to that level. I don't think it was just a deep team of guys with PER over 15. Like Bensational mentioned, the following year, the Spurs got knocked out in Round 1 by a Clippers team that only had 5 guys with PER over 15. That Clippers group did have a nice collection of high BBIQ veterans though... CP3, Redick, Crawford, Griffin, Jordan, Barnes, Big Baby, Turk...

I often talk about how I think that Hennigan is building us up to be like the Spurs model and that we are a few developmental stages away and an interior defense piece away from being able to compete like them. Over time, I love our future. If we build up that BBIQ, establish strong chemistry and develop our young talent, we might not need a Lebron/KD/Curry type of Superstar to lead this team.

[tiderulz]

look at any of the past winners, you really do need at least 1 star. I wont say you need a "superstar", but i try not to water down that label, there are very few superstars in the league. But you need that one star that you can go to when you need it. Look at Atlanta as a prime example, they dont have a star and when they finally faced a good team in the playoffs, one that was undermanned too, they lost badly.

[JF5]

That's what I'm saying... I've been saying this for the LONGEST time...

You just only need One star with a very good supporting cast.

The Magic are just honestly 1 guy and a few more years of experience away from being that team. The real question is will the guy develop from here or will it be someone they will pick up from free agency/trade? Time will tell...

But this whole superstar talk is slightly overrated (IMO) given the teams that have won championships or have been on the cusp of winning championships in the recent years.

[tooler]

Looked this thread up after the recent frustration with Oladipo.

I went to the Blazers board and saw one guy made a comment about how he liked our team but it was so much more reassuring to know the team had a direction (Lillard/McCollum) and that they just needed to put pieces around them.

Sometimes I wish our team was built like that, but there's no guarantees there either. Can that backcourt win a championship? Who knows!

It's a telling example too, given their defensive struggles. Because we have "star" in Vucevic with a high PER who could put up big numbers if we went to him more, and he struggles on defense. It doesn't feel like that will do much in the long run.

It's frustrating to watch this team search for a triple-threat closer or even an unbeatable 4th quarter play like an elite pick-and-roll. Our saving grace is all the assets we have and our competitive play this year. There's still a chance to make a trade or attract a free agent. Or Payton develops a shot or Hezonja develops better ball-handling. None of these have a great chance, but at least flexibility gives us more chances.

I don't know. Even with all this really nice winning, I'm still searching for answers.

[MagicMadness]

The Magic are a young, raw, less fully-developed version of last season's Atlanta Hawks. We are a prime example of team ball, with no one player really shining through and dominating the stat sheets.

With that said, I think that you normally need at least one bonafide superstar, one legitimate all-star quality player, and a talented roster to win it all in the NBA Finals. It doesn't mean that it can't nor hasn't happened without this formula, it's just that it's kind of rare and/or doesn't happen for the same roster more than once. Or, it's the Spurs...

One star with a very good supporting cast gets you to the 2nd round, maybe even the Conference Finals. One superstar and a very good supporting cast can get you to the Finals, but don't expect to win it all (Iverson's 76ers, Dwight's Magic, last season's LeBron-led Cavs). Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs beat a team with two superstars and a star, but again, that was an exception to the rule. A lot of variables had to occur - including a bit of luck - to turn that series around and give Dallas the unlikely win.

[tiderulz]

Looked this thread up after the recent frustration with Oladipo.

I went to the Blazers board and saw one guy made a comment about how he liked our team but it was so much more reassuring to know the team had a direction (Lillard/McCollum) and that they just needed to put pieces around them.

Sometimes I wish our team was built like that, but there's no guarantees there either. Can that backcourt win a championship? Who knows!

It's a telling example too, given their defensive struggles. Because we have "star" in Vucevic with a high PER who could put up big numbers if we went to him more, and he struggles on defense. It doesn't feel like that will do much in the long run.

It's frustrating to watch this team search for a triple-threat closer or even an unbeatable 4th quarter play like an elite pick-and-roll. Our saving grace is all the assets we have and our competitive play this year. There's still a chance to make a trade or attract a free agent. Or Payton develops a shot or Hezonja develops better ball-handling. None of these have a great chance, but at least flexibility gives us more chances.

I don't know. Even with all this really nice winning, I'm still searching for answers.

Lilliard/McCollum are one way players, all offense no defense. Lilliad is a volume shooter, good but not great. CJ a step below. I personally wouldnt call either of them a star. Good luck with Portland fans if they think that they can win with those 2 as their best 2 players.

[seeingstars]

Looked this thread up after the recent frustration with Oladipo.

I went to the Blazers board and saw one guy made a comment about how he liked our team but it was so much more reassuring to know the team had a direction (Lillard/McCollum) and that they just needed to put pieces around them.

Sometimes I wish our team was built like that, but there's no guarantees there either. Can that backcourt win a championship? Who knows!

It's a telling example too, given their defensive struggles. Because we have "star" in Vucevic with a high PER who could put up big numbers if we went to him more, and he struggles on defense. It doesn't feel like that will do much in the long run.

It's frustrating to watch this team search for a triple-threat closer or even an unbeatable 4th quarter play like an elite pick-and-roll. Our saving grace is all the assets we have and our competitive play this year. There's still a chance to make a trade or attract a free agent. Or Payton develops a shot or Hezonja develops better ball-handling. None of these have a great chance, but at least flexibility gives us more chances.

I don't know. Even with all this really nice winning, I'm still searching for answers.

I think Mario improving his ball handling is about the most predictable improvement for the future development of all our young players.

Kids a gym rat, he'll get it sooner or later.

[ezzzp]

Looked this thread up after the recent frustration with Oladipo.

I went to the Blazers board and saw one guy made a comment about how he liked our team but it was so much more reassuring to know the team had a direction (Lillard/McCollum) and that they just needed to put pieces around them.

Sometimes I wish our team was built like that, but there's no guarantees there either. Can that backcourt win a championship? Who knows!

It's a telling example too, given their defensive struggles. Because we have "star" in Vucevic with a high PER who could put up big numbers if we went to him more, and he struggles on defense. It doesn't feel like that will do much in the long run.

It's frustrating to watch this team search for a triple-threat closer or even an unbeatable 4th quarter play like an elite pick-and-roll. Our saving grace is all the assets we have and our competitive play this year. There's still a chance to make a trade or attract a free agent. Or Payton develops a shot or Hezonja develops better ball-handling. None of these have a great chance, but at least flexibility gives us more chances.

I don't know. Even with all this really nice winning, I'm still searching for answers.

I think Mario improving his ball handling is about the most predictable improvement for the future development of all our young players.

Kids a gym rat, he'll get it sooner or later.

Eh...Lillard is 25 and CJ is 24. I like the Magic future much better than Blazers'.

The Magic are the second youngest team in the NBA. Except Vuc who just turned 25, all the key players are 1 to 5 years away from their prime (25-29). Even with that, the Magic are in the middle of the playoff hunt. Progress is being made and there will be a lot more improvement to come.

The Magic also have in the $30 million range to add this summer. Retaining Smith and possibly Nicholson and Fournier will eat up most of that but since they own all their free agent bird rights, they can choose to add a free agent and keep their own. So there is plenty of room for growth via free agency as well.

[Bensational]

Looked this thread up after the recent frustration with Oladipo.

I went to the Blazers board and saw one guy made a comment about how he liked our team but it was so much more reassuring to know the team had a direction (Lillard/McCollum) and that they just needed to put pieces around them.

Sometimes I wish our team was built like that, but there's no guarantees there either. Can that backcourt win a championship? Who knows!

It's a telling example too, given their defensive struggles. Because we have "star" in Vucevic with a high PER who could put up big numbers if we went to him more, and he struggles on defense. It doesn't feel like that will do much in the long run.

It's frustrating to watch this team search for a triple-threat closer or even an unbeatable 4th quarter play like an elite pick-and-roll. Our saving grace is all the assets we have and our competitive play this year. There's still a chance to make a trade or attract a free agent. Or Payton develops a shot or Hezonja develops better ball-handling. None of these have a great chance, but at least flexibility gives us more chances.

I don't know. Even with all this really nice winning, I'm still searching for answers.

Lilliard/McCollum are one way players, all offense no defense. Lilliad is a volume shooter, good but not great. CJ a step below. I personally wouldnt call either of them a star. Good luck with Portland fans if they think that they can win with those 2 as their best 2 players.

That team is doing all the right things though. They're bringing in young bigs who have the potential to be 2-way players and hoping one of them pans out. Meanwhile they'll have their draft pick this year, plus the ability to move one of Lillard/CJ for that frontcourt partner if they strike out elsewhere.

I think Lillard is a tier below the true superstars (Curry, LeBron, Durant, Westbrook), BUT he's still so disruptive as a player that he makes others around him better. Vuc is only just starting to wade into those waters with his improved passing and defense this year. Payton's confidence and penetration lately has also been looking very disruptive. But neither of those guys are on Lillard's level of impact yet. (Not saying I'd trade either of them for him).

But I'd have felt much more confident about designing that final shot against Atlanta for either of Lillard or McCollum over anyone on our team.

If I'm the Blazers, I'd be looking to throw good money at Whiteside and Nicholson. they'll be right back in the playoffs next year.

Whiteside
Nicholson
Aminu
McCollum
Lillard

Nicholson would do a decent job filling the shoes of LMA and could very well be close to a 20ppg player as a top 2/3 option playing alongside two guys who are gonna disrupt a defense, and Whiteside would give them a great defensive anchor.

[seeingstars]

Ina year or 2 Mario Hezonja will be shooting all the game tieing and game winning shots. Book it

[tiderulz]

But I'd have felt much more confident about designing that final shot against Atlanta for either of Lillard or McCollum over anyone on our team.

how would you have felt if they had to defend the last shot of another team?

[seeingstars]

Speaking of building a deep team, here's some highlights from our 3 point gunner in the d league Tyler Harvey

https://youtu.be/CEVbPepSd1s

[Orlwillbeback]

Speaking of building a deep team, here's some highlights from our 3 point gunner in the d league Tyler Harvey

https://youtu.be/CEVbPepSd1s

He really is a gunner isnt he lol

Real sparkplug type guy

[Bensational]

But I'd have felt much more confident about designing that final shot against Atlanta for either of Lillard or McCollum over anyone on our team.

how would you have felt if they had to defend the last shot of another team?

I think that's why you have your Oladipo's and Aaron Gordon's on the team. Same as we've been doing in those situations ourselves this season.