SBNation: Should you fire your coach midseason? A statistical breakdown.

Post #1 » by **rsavaj** » Tue Dec 22, 2015 5:54 pm

http://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/10/2936696/head-coach-fired-stats

Older SBNation Article(2012) looking at the mid-season firings from 2000-2011. Basically concludes that a midseason coaching change barely moves the needle.

If Hornacek isn't the guy, I think you should let him run out his contract and look for a new hire in the Summer.

TeamTragic · Post #2 » by **TeamTragic** » Tue Dec 22, 2015 7:50 pm

rsavaj wrote:http://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/10/2936696/head-coach-fired-stats

Older SBNation Article(2012) looking at the mid-season firings from 2000-2011. Basically concludes that a midseason coaching change barely moves the needle.

If Hornacek isn't the guy, I think you should let him run out his contract and look for a new hire in the Summer.

Agreed. Tank for Simmons.

Revived · Post #3 » by **Revived** » Tue Dec 22, 2015 7:53 pm

I wouldn't care if they didn't fire him if it meant he continued to start Booker and Warren and maybe even Len. And I don't just mean starting, I mean actually giving them minutes unlike yesterday when he basically took them off the court right after they started each half. He STILL ended up playing Knight and Tucker more than he did Booker and Warren.

His priority should be developing Warren, Booker and Len. If they win some games along the way, cool. If not, cool.

I'd rather watch the team suck playing Warren, Booker and Len a ton of minutes than watch the team be mediocre by playing Knight and Tucker.

Tucker can be DNP'd (give Teletovic his minutes too) while Knight can get 6th man type mins off the bench.

WeekapaugGroove · Post #4 » by **WeekapaugGroove** » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:02 pm

rsavaj wrote:http://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/10/2936696/head-coach-fired-stats

Older SBNation Article(2012) looking at the mid-season firings from 2000-2011. Basically concludes that a midseason coaching change barely moves the needle.

If Hornacek isn't the guy, I think you should let him run out his contract and look for a new hire in the Summer.

I wholeheartedly agree that firing Horny won't do a damn thing to help this season. It's a lost cause. Now I don't think theres any chance he's here next year; Suns aren't giving him an extension and I honestly don't know if he would even want one. So knowing that I see two scenarios where firing him in-season makes sense. One is if they have someone on the staff like Earl Watson that they want to give a trial run to this season and let them have an opportunity to win the full time gig. The other is if they want an unemployed coach like Tibs or Van Gundy. By doing it now and starting the negotiations they might have a leg up as opposed to doing it next summer when there will be more competition for those guys. Plus if you brought in Thibs now you could give him a little time to get a first hand feel for the players and decide who he wants on the roster next year.

side note: I'm dubious of Thibs; to me he's the defensive version of Pringles right down to the refusal to play more than 8 guys. Now if he's learned his lesson and brings a good offensive assistant with him I'm all for his hire.

blacksun · Post #5 » by **blacksun** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:02 am

I wouldnt necessarily conclude that firing a coach midseason wont affect the win-loss record. They used the cumulative win-loss records as basis. Of course the good firings are offset by bad firings and youll end up with an even number. Its always gonna result to an almost similar before-after numbers.

Like most things its about doing having discernment in realizing that your coach needs changing, and doing your homework in hiring his replacement. Of course like most things in sports you need a lot of luck in this transition.