Let's talk about this VERY VERY Interesting Stat

Destin · Post #1 » by **Destin** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 5:22 am

vs. .500 and above 3-8

However, we lost most of those games in nail biter/overtime / we blew it in the last second games that we probably should have won.

NO MORAL VICTORIES - I GET IT!

The good thing too is that we are blowing away the sucky teams.

Think about this for a minute.. We are only like 2-3 wins away from being the top team in the East. This is crazy!

In other words.. we can hang with the best in the division

GO MAGIC... BEAT THE LIVING CRAP OUT OF HOUSTON.

tooler · Post #2 » by **tooler** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 5:41 am

A few things:

It's hard to judge the team since they have looked pretty different since the lineup change.

Based on these numbers, we are the team most primed to fall down the standings. We've had the 2nd-easiest schedule in the conference. I expect our record to even out a little as we play more teams over .500 unless we can continue to grow and get used to the Skiles systems over the course of the season.

The flatness of the East doesn't necessarily mean we are as good as the teams above us. I remember a Chicago fan posting here a week or two ago saying everything was fine because they were a half game from the 2 seed or something, and they're a mess now.

I'm less concerned about the standings and more concerned about tightening our defense back up. That's a coachable, learnable way to improve without hoping for players to magically break out into stars.

Destin · Post #3 » by **Destin** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 5:46 am

We've had the 2nd-easiest schedule in the conference.

Huh? We had an absolute brutal schedule when the season first started. It was brutal. I'm not sure where you got that information from but I hope you are WRONG.

toquito · Post #4 » by **toquito** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:34 am

That pic makes us stick out like a sore thumb as a team that shouldn't be there. 3-8 vs .500 teams while everyone else has played tougher teams and had more success. Reality might hit soon.

premo321 · Post #5 » by **premo321** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:48 am

Destin wrote:
We've had the 2nd-easiest schedule in the conference.

Huh? We had an absolute brutal schedule when the season first started. It was brutal. I'm not sure where you got that information from but I hope you are WRONG.

http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

Furinkazan · Post #6 » by **Furinkazan** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 8:45 am

Post #7 » by **Bensational** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 9:47 am

Destin wrote:
We've had the 2nd-easiest schedule in the conference.

Huh? We had an absolute brutal schedule when the season first started. It was brutal. I'm not sure where you got that information from but I hope you are WRONG.

the numbers are right there in the picture you posted. we've played 17 teams that are .500 and under, vs 11 teams that are .500 or over. we've played more 'worse' teams than anyone else in our conference.

the Hornets, on the other hand, have done the reverse (17 teams OVER .500, and 10 teams UNDER .500), and they've still got nearly the same record as us.

zelenooq · Post #8 » by **zelenooq** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 12:37 pm

good things that orlando has opportunity to rise self confidence in team and learning how to win so it is better that way then opposite way but yes, it will be challenge

Catledge · Post #9 » by **Catledge** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:06 pm

tooler wrote:A few things:

It's hard to judge the team since they have looked pretty different since the lineup change.

Based on these numbers, we are the team most primed to fall down the standings. We've had the 2nd-easiest schedule in the conference. I expect our record to even out a little as we play more teams over .500 unless we can continue to grow and get used to the Skiles systems over the course of the season.

The flatness of the East doesn't necessarily mean we are as good as the teams above us. I remember a Chicago fan posting here a week or two ago saying everything was fine because they were a half game from the 2 seed or something, and they're a mess now.

I'm less concerned about the standings and more concerned about tightening our defense back up. That's a coachable, learnable way to improve without hoping for players to magically break out into stars.

Do we have any stats on how the team's performance has changed since Dipo got benched?

In any event, I think our clearest opportunity for further improvement this year (as opposed to Hezo and Gordon's continued improvement over the coming years) is Dipo and Harris getting their jump shooting back to where they have been in past years.

drsd · Post #10 » by **drsd** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:32 pm

Catledge wrote:Do we have any stats on how the team's performance has changed since Dipo got benched?

Let's look at the only relevant stat for the league: wins vs. losses.

Before: 6-8 (42.8%)
After: 10-4 (71.4%)

If this new winning rate holds over the season, Orlando wins 54 games.

..

Edrock · Post #11 » by **Edrock** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:50 pm

Anyone have a bit more insight into that particular statistic? Is that the record based on when the Magic played them (they were .500 & over AT THE TIME OF THE GAME or they're .500 & over now). I'm not trying to draw conclusions, I'm just wondering about the nuance of the record.

Optimus_Steel · Post #12 » by **Optimus_Steel** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:53 pm

Destin wrote:vs. .500 and above 3-8

However, we lost most of those games in nail biter/overtime / we blew it in the last second games that we probably should have won.

NO MORAL VICTORIES - I GET IT!

The good thing too is that we are blowing away the sucky teams.

Think about this for a minute.. We are only like 2-3 wins away from being the top team in the East. This is crazy!

In other words.. we can hang with the best in the division

GO MAGIC... BEAT THE LIVING CRAP OUT OF HOUSTON.

I would say that is to be expected. The first step for a young team like us is beat the teams that we should beat and we are doing that consistently. Next step is to learn to beat the good playoffs teams, that usually happens later as the team earns more experience. But we have shown we are more than capable of competing with them and eventually we will start beating some of those good teams. The east has been really unpredictable so far and that doesn't seem to be changing. I would say that the veteran teams in the east, if they suffer an injury to key players that really can help us out in a big way.

OrlandO · Post #13 » by **OrlandO** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:22 pm

Edrock wrote:Anyone have a bit more insight into that particular statistic? Is that the record based on when the Magic played them (they were .500 & over AT THE TIME OF THE GAME or they're .500 & over now). I'm not trying to draw conclusions, I'm just wondering about the nuance of the record.

I think it's current records. That means our losses against the Wiz and wins against the Knicks aren't included even though they were .500 when we faced them. Some things to consider... We did not have the toughest schedule in terms of opponents early on, but we still had one of the most miserable schedules in the league to start due to a ton of road games and back to backs to go along with very little rest overall. Also, since the lineup change we're 4-3 against teams that were .500 or better when we beat them. Over the next few weeks we get some rematches against teams we lost to earlier in the season, so that should be fun to keep an eye on... winning against Houston tonight would be nice.

tooler · Post #14 » by **tooler** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:06 pm

Also, it's worth comparing to last year:

Over .500
14-15: .195
15-16: .272

Under .500
14-15: .415
15-16: .765

Post #15 » by **MagicMadness** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:48 pm

tooler, I remember last season you started a thread showing the different levels of successful teams in the league.

Like, the first level is beating the teams you're supposed to beat, then the next level is beating playoff teams on a consistent basis, etc. Do you remember that? And if so, is it something you could re-post? I thought that was really interesting, but unfortunately I can't remember exactly how you had it charted it out.

As for the team, I'm glad they are taking advantage of their softer schedule. That's a good sign, at least.

tooler · Post #16 » by **tooler** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 5:01 pm

MagicMadness wrote:tooler, I remember last season you started a thread showing the different levels of successful teams in the league.

Like, the first level is beating the teams you're supposed to beat, then the next level is beating playoff teams on a consistent basis, etc. Do you remember that? And if so, is it something you could re-post? I thought that was really interesting, but unfortunately I can't remember exactly how you had it charted it out.

As for the team, I'm glad they are taking advantage of their softer schedule. That's a good sign, at least.

Yeah it was a quote from a Celtics writer or something. First beat non-playoff teams at home, then non-playoff teams on the road, then playoff teams at home, then playoff teams on the road.

I thought about it recently but I was waiting for the league to settle down a bit. The East is crazy and the West is a mess. Obviously we're pretty good with the first two phases if we're 13-4 against sub-.500 teams.

MagicFan32 · Post #17 » by **MagicFan32** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:00 pm

alot of those games were close. young teams more often than not are going to lose those against better, more experienced teams. also the jazz and knicks could easily be over .500 soon which would turn that 3-8 into 4 more wins

tooler · Post #18 » by **tooler** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:14 pm

MagicFan32 wrote:alot of those games were close. young teams more often than not are going to lose those against better, more experienced teams. also the jazz and knicks could easily be over .500 soon which would turn that 3-8 into 4 more wins

Ah, you're right. Knicks are a maybe but Jazz for sure once Gobert returns. If both teams did that would make us 7-8 and 9-4, assuming no other changes. Much more balanced.

The sample sizes remain small.

Post #19 » by **MagicMadness** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:15 pm

On that note, I do believe in moral victories.

There is a difference between our team grinding out close losses against superior opponents, and Philly getting blown out of the water by those same teams. In the end, a loss is a loss - but believe me, our young guys ARE taking positives away from those games.

NBlue · Post #20 » by **NBlue** » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:23 pm

While there may be something to this I find it hard to take too much from it. 4 of those wins against teams under .500 are against the Jazz and Knicks. Those teams are under .500 only due to the fact we beat them. So its kinda silly that our loss to the Rockets counts as a team over .500 but our 4 wins against the Knicks and Jazz count on the other side. In fact, if we beat the Rockets tonite than they will no longer be over .500. In short, I do think it is harder to win against better teams but I'm not sure that the statistic cited is indicative that we are likely to lose a ton in the future -- not based on the limited sample size and the bunching up of teams.