Prospects and trade discussion

[Neddy]

looks like Daniel Coulomb has been traded to the A's for cash considerations. we had no use for him and he was getting up in the age to be stashed away as a 'prospect' anymore. my question is not why we traded him per se, but why we traded him with nothing in return as we aren't the type of a club that needs 'cash' considerations for a older prospect with low ceilings. I am assuming there is a roster move coming up?

[Ranma]

I've never heard of Angel German but he sounds intriguing as a 6-4, 19-year-old RHP. Can't find much about him but he is briefly mentioned in the piece below and there's also a fairly recent video of him even if it is rather short.

Cary Osborne, DodgersInsider.com (10/7/15)

The Dodger organization had a strong showing this week in Baseball America’s 2015 Top 20 Prospects List for the Texas League.

The No. 1 prospect in the league is 18-year-old left-hander Julio Urias. No. 3 was right-hander Jose De Leon and right-hander Jharel Cotton came in at No. 16.

Baseball America began the league-by-league ratings beginning with the Arizona Rookie League on September 22 and will wrap up with the Pacific Coast League, home of the Dodgers’ Triple-A partner the Oklahoma City Dodgers, on Thursday.

Earlier, BA ranked Angel German, a 19-year-old right-hander who had a 4.53 ERA/1.64 WHIP in 45 2/3 innings with the AZL Dodgers, the No. 18 prospect from the Arizona Rookie League. According to Ben Badler of BA, German was throwing 88-90 mph when the Dodgers signed him out of the Dominican Republic in 2013. He has since upped it to the 95-100 mph range with good sink, Badler reports.

Urias Heads Texas League Class, De Leon Close Behind


[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-O6cn0C9ZQ0[/youtube]

[Neddy]

hey the Orioles are about to have a gaping hole in their lineup as Chris Davis is most likely leaving, and the O's have only one lefty in their lineup without Chris, and I believe that corner OF hit something like 5 HRs. Let's dump Andre Ethier to O's, eat 16.5 million like Ranma suggested, and grab John Means from their A ball. He is not regarded very highly in their system and they just drafted another college lefty reliever from Oregon just this year who is younger and at times, throws harder.

[Ranma]

I believe the Dodgers were in discussions with the Orioles as well as the Diamondbacks regarding Ethier during the previous off-season only to have the talks fall through before the Kemp-Grandal trade with San Diego. I'm sure they've revisited talks and reference the same framework of previous discussions.

[Ranma]

Update: Dodger Insider had a table of top-10 BA prospects going back 3 years, so I've replaced my 2 individual tables for 2016 and 2015 with it as well as included a table listing the prospects with the best respective tools.

[Ranma]

Dodgers prospects occupy 9 spots out of the top 100 listed below. KATOH is a work-in-progress rating system that projects WAR value through a prospect's age 28 season based on the single current season statistics.

[Quake Griffin]

Is Cody Bellinger the heir apparent to A-Gon?

Every time I look up, it feels like I see him rising in the prospect rankings.

[Ranma]

Is Cody Bellinger the heir apparent to A-Gon?

Every time I look up, it feels like I see him rising in the prospect rankings.

Bellinger is someone I compared to James Loney as a prospect. I've always been a fan of Loney's as soon as he was drafted by the organization and was heartbroken when it didn't work out with the Dodgers. Like Loney, Bellinger is known for having a polished bat with a great glove at 1B. Also, like JL, Bellinger pitched in high school as a southpaw. However, his spike in power is both surprising and encouraging in that he tweaked his hitting mechanics to drive the ball more.

I'm hesitant to call him the "heir apparent" to A-Gon given how young he is and his brief experience as a pro, but he does look like a player with a high ceiling floor with newfound upside. If he can continue to excel and even improve during the next couple of seasons, then it'd be safer to call him the next in line at 1B. Having said that, I'm hopeful he can be the player I wanted Loney to be or have a career like John Olerud's.

I've updated my post two slots above to include a table listing of the best prospect tools. It's nice to see Bellinger given the title of the organization's best power-hitting prospect. Below are Ben Badler's thoughts on Bellinger from Twitter and a chat session he conducted today.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenBadler/status/665272136722948096[/tweet]

Ben Badler, BaseballAmerica.com (11/30/15)

Emmett (Chicago): I know you like Cody Bellinger quite a bit, but what has you convinced that the power will play outside the Cal League?

Ben Badler: The Cal League does inflate his numbers, but there were legitimate, underlying reasons for Bellinger’s power surge beyond playing in a hitter-friendly environment. Some of it is just natural strength progression where he’s finally filling out that lanky frame, but a lot of it was the mechanical changes he made throughout the course of the season that I wrote about in his report. Is he going to be a 30-plus home run guy going forward? Probably not. But it’s legit plus power and a swing that’s conducive to tapping into that power in games.
...

nb (Philly): Hey Ben - As always, thanks for the chat. Bellinger seems like an interesting prospect as you don't see many guys with the position of 1B/CF. Do you see him staying at 1B as the eventual replacement for Gonzalez (although he's signed for a few more years) or moving into the OF mix? Thanks again.

Ben Badler: A very unusual prospect with a very unusual development path so far. It depends on how Bellinger develops offensively, but if he’s capable of hitting enough to play every day at first base or in the outfield (and my bet is that he will), it might just depend on how their roster looks at the time and where they need him the most. If he does spend more time in the outfield in the big leagues, it’s probably going to be in a corner though, but his defensive actions are so good at first base that I’d like to see him stay there as his primary role.
...

Lando C. (Cloud City, Bespin): Greetings! I get the feeling that The Dodgers will ultimately get a proven 1B from trades or free agency, but Cody Bellinger is an interesting prospect. Do you think Cody Bellinger ends up as more of a big power, 30-HR, .220 avg. type that could be a legit MLB starter, or a 20ish HR .250 guy that is a backup plan?

Ben Badler: I think he has a chance to be a 20-25 HR guy and be a slightly above-average hitter who amplifies his OBP by drawing a lot of walks. This season, his offensive profile got slanted more toward power than contact, but we’re talking about someone who just turned 20, was in the first season with his updated hitting mechanics, and was able to make the proper adjustments to cut down on his strikeouts without sacrificing any power later in the year. To me, those signs, along with someone who just has an overall high baseball IQ and has shown natural hitting instincts from a young age, they all point to him eventually finding that right balance of contact and power within the next few years. Throw in the defense that he brings to the table, and that’s a pretty exciting prospect.

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Prospects Chat

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenBadler/status/680824526142345216[/tweet]

[Ranma]

Noted baseball prospect analyst John Sickels ranked the top 20 prospects in the Dodgers' farm system and provided thumbnail profiles summarizing from his 2016 Baseball Prospect Handbook. Outside of the elite prospects whom everyone keeps asking for, Sickels is particularly high on Alex Verdugo and Willie Calhoun by ranking them 4th and 9th overall, respectively. He's also more optimistic on Yusniel Diaz than Yadier Alvarez where Diaz is ranked 7th while Alvarez is 12th.

1. Corey Seager, SS: A
2. Julio Urias, LHP: A
3. Jose De Leon, RHP: A-/B+
4. Alex Verdugo, OF: B+/B
5. Frankie Montas, RHP: B/B+
6. Cody Bellinger, 1B: B
7. Yusniel Diaz, OF: B
8. Grant Holmes, RHP: B
9. Will Calhoun, 2B-OF: B
10. Austin Barnes, C: B-
11. Jharel Cotton, RHP: B-
12. Yadier Alvarez, RHP: B-/C+
13. Trayce Thompson, OF: B-/C+
14. Zach Lee, RHP: C+/B-
15. Micah Johnson, 2B: C+/B-
16. Chase De Jong, RHP: C+/B-
17. Chris Anderson, RHP: C+
18. Ross Stripling, RHP: C+
19. Walker Buehler, RHP: C+
20. Kyle Farmer, C: C+

John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall.com (12/26/15)

1) Corey Seager, SS, Grade A: Age 21, hit .293/.344/.487 between Double-A and Triple-A then .337/.425/.561 in 27 big league games. Should continue to hit for power and average, may wind up a more complete hitter than his brother Kyle. Can handle shortstop at least in the short run, has everything needed to be a star.

2) Julio Urias, LHP, Grade A: Age 19, a little more human in 2015 but still excellent for his age, posted 2.77 ERA in 74/15 K/BB in 68 innings in Double-A but was hit hard in two Triple-A starts, innings limited by operation to address his eye condition. Throws four quality pitches for strikes with amazingly good pitchability for one so young.

3) Jose De Leon, RHP, Grade A-/B+: Age 23, combined for 2.99 ERA with 163/37 K/BB in 114 innings between High-A and Double-A, hard to believe he was an anonymous 24th round pick two years ago, better conditioning and mechanics made all the difference with 90+ velocity, strong change-up helps too, can be number three starter.

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects for 2016

[Kilroy]

We're spending a ton of money, but I like where we're spending it... It's a good combination of right now and future.

But at some point we need to get serious about winning the big one. Don't think it's next season, but I think the window is open and we should take advantage soon.

Which is my long-winded way of saying prospects have to = assets.

[Ranma]

We're spending a ton of money, but I like where we're spending it... It's a good combination of right now and future.

But at some point we need to get serious about winning the big one. Don't think it's next season, but I think the window is open and we should take advantage soon.

Which is my long-winded way of saying prospects have to = assets.

I agree with that. I'm generally a prospect and draft pick hoarder, but I've advocated "depleting" our farm system for big trades this off-season given the amount of depth in the Dodgers' developmental pipeline and the lack of high-upside in the upper ranks. As Quake previously pointed out, "deplete" was the wrong choice of words on my part so I'll go with "spend heavily" from our prospects pool.

Having said that, I'm still inclined to make the right deal instead of just accepting whatever is being offered by other teams. I'm still quite wary of other teams' habitual exorbitant demands from us; they keep asking the Dodgers to pay more than other teams just because we have more.

With memories of dealing away Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields still fresh in my mind, I'm reluctant to deal elite and promising prospects who could eventually become faces of the franchise, which is why I still maintain that both Corey Seager and Julio Urias are untouchable. Obviously, neither could pan out but the possible payout is so tantalizing and great, that it's usually worth it to stick it out. Can you imagine how distraught we'd all be if this team had dealt away Clayton Kershaw when teams were asking for him back in the day? This front office has already dealt away Dee Gordon and is supposedly now looking to upgrade 2B.

The converse is also true if we hold onto prospects for too long. I still remember the days of looking forward to the promising duo of Edwin Jackson and Greg Miller developing to be aces in our starting rotation. Jackson hasn't lived up to his potential while injury befell Miller. Given that, I'm not opposed to selling high on a lot of our prospects.

If Sonny Gray, Jose Fernandez, Chris Archer, or Carlos Carrasco were made available, I'd be willing to put together a package centered around Jose De Leon. I'm more than willing to deal Grant Holmes, Chris Anderson, and Alex Wood to help our team now as there is a growing sense that they may eventually become bullpen arms. I haven't been high on Frankie Montas, Alex Verdugo, or Willie Calhoun but their respective development seem to be on the upswing, so they could at least generate higher asset value in trade if we give them more time in seasoning. Trayce Thompson and Micah Johnson are a couple of prospects who haven't been with the organization long, but I'm already inclined to deal them both.

Meanwhile, I'd like to see what we have in Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz, Cody Bellinger, Mitch Hansen, and maybe Starling Heredia before considering to deal any of them. We also look to have 4 picks in the top 50 of the 2016 MLB Draft, so there is another opportunity to quickly replenish our stock of prospect talent. While the class is considered weak, there are a few intriguing prospects who could be available with our selections. Also, with our anticipated participation in the free agent bonanza of 2018-19 and the resulting loss of our 2019 first-round pick, the Dodgers could employ the strategy being used for the current international signing period by blowing past our budget for either the 2018 or 2019 draft class and maybe even both, depending on the respective strength of those draft classes.

My wind is apparently longer than yours.

[Neddy]

we just gotta make sure we don't do dumb trades such as what Tony La Russa and Stewart did with Miller. Inciate alone had higher WAR value over Shelby Miler and they coughed up #1 overall pick this year AND another good prospect. in 2-3 years when those two minor leaguers make it to the majors, the WAR value will be around 9 to 3. what a pair of dumbasses... smfh.

I still don't think what Dee did down in Miami is sustainable. his BABIP in 2015 was .383. yeah he led the NL in batting average at .333 but his OBP was still .359. that is .026+ from his BA to OBP. if his BABIP drops to his normal .330 range(a ton of infield singles help) will have him drop his BA at around .283, with his OBP around at .309. that is terrible. plus his usual SLG of .370, he is .680-ish OPS player. that is below average player through and through. Zack Greinke will never go .220 BABIP against in his career, and I don't tihnk Dee can ever hit .383 BABIP for the rest of his career.

and Yeah Pedro thing still hurts. and it hurts even more since it was Tommy Lasorda himself who always said "you don't trade young pitchers with talent" then it was he who let that happen.

going back to the prospects we need to trade, I say the hot potato #1 is Zach Lee. he is getting older, and his ranking dropping at a rapid rate. I think Andrew and Fahran talking about them liking Dontas as a starter is a lot of hot air out of their asses. I truly believe we got him to be a part of a trade and just building up his value. Chris Anderson, Sborz, De Jong, Alex Verdugo and Kyle Farmer can all go.

[Ranma]

I agree about Zach Lee. He's 24 now and had a bit of a bounce-back season in the minors. He should either help as a starter in the Dodgers' rotation or be dealt to another team as part of a package to bring us a big return. Personally, I'd like to see him get his shot as the 5th starter. Unfortunately, he's lost quite a bit of luster as a prospect and has limited upside, which further deflates his value in an unfriendly trade market. Still, I think he has a chance to be a solid option for us if he's ready.

[Neddy]

I agree about Zach Lee. He's 24 now and had a bit of a bounce-back season in the minors. He should either help as a starter in the Dodgers' rotation or be dealt to another team as part of a package to bring us a big return. Personally, I'd like to see him get his shot as the 5th starter. Unfortunately, he's lost quite a bit a luster as a prospect and has limited upside, which further deflates his value in an unfriendly trade market. Still, I think he has a chance to be a solid option for us if he's ready.

I would not mind one bit if we run with Zach Lee rather than investing heavily in Maeda either. Zach has struggled in the last couple of years leading up to 2015 but last season at AAA he was looking like he finally figured it out. his SO/9 was down from his previous years but the rest of the stats, H/9, HR/9, BB/9 all went down and went down significantly. his WHIP was at 1.112 at AAA. that's not bad at all. his FIP was 3.35 and although I can't find his minor league groundball rate, in his short stint in the majors he was a 55% GB pitcher while getting rocked. I don't expect him to continue to get hit that hard if given a season to prove himself. his fastballs are below 90s, somewhere in the 88 to 89 range but he does complement that with a slider, curve and a changeup. he may not have a go to strike out pitch (demonstrated by his 6.5 SO/9 last season in AAA) but he does seem to have learned who he is as a pitcher and how to get guys out.

I still think Maeda's Japanese ball to MLB conversion factor was a complete and utter BS, but I also think if Zach was to go to NPB or KBO, he would be a top of the rotation type of a guy as well. still think Maeda is ahead of Zach but once you compute the cost, I believe it is no brainer to consider Zach instead. also, I honestly believe Joe Wieland is a much better pither than his stats indicate from 2015. although he is more like Ismael Valdez as he too is just a three pitch pitcher, he does have better fastball than Zach and a pair of decent pitches to complement with his change up and curve. I must say though, none of the 7 pitches from these two pitchers would be considered a plus pitch as far as "stuff" is concerned but Joe's fastball is probably the best pitch among all of their arsenal.

hypothetically, if we try Zach for cheap instead of expensive option of similar floor and possibly higher ceiling in Maeda, Kershaw - Ryu - Anderson - Wood - Lee would be erntertaining, although at this point MIke Bolsinger deserves a shot before Zach, therefore in my eyes it still makes Zach a trade asset more so than a rotational option barring injury. but if we keep him as an emergency starter, I firmly believe his trade value in age 25 and beyond will hamper what kind of return we can get for him.

I probably am saying too many things at once and may confuse some readers, so I will clarifiy and state that I believe the time to trade Zach is now, our emergency starter should be Joe Wieland as his unlucky BABIP will correct itself and he has little value in the market due to his age. Maeda is still the better option in terms of talent, but once the cost is accounted for, both finantially and for future rotation traffic jam sake, I think Magic Mike is the better option overall for that 5th spot to start the season with. for anyone interested in their age gap, Maeda and Magic Mike are the same age. and I believe MIke Bolsinger would pitch comparatively to Maeda if they were both playing in Japan.

[Ranma]

Geez...I didn't realize Lee's fastball declined into the upper 80's already. His fastball was never his selling point but it at least was not a weakness before. If there is one guy who would benefit a lot from getting pointers from Greg Maddux, it would be Zach Lee. Hopefully, the rumor about Maddux joining a West Coast team turns out to be true with the Dodgers as the team.

As always, I appreciate the depth of your analysis and insight. I agree with absolutely everything you said, but I'm still partial to seeing what Zach can do if given a decent chance to pitch a full season. Magic Mike, like you said, is deservedly ahead on the totem pole. Wieland does sound like an under-rated option where I was only thinking of him as trade fodder at this point.

It seems like Maeda's camp has been disappointed with the contract numbers he's gotten from the Dodgers thus far and I'm curious if there will be any MLB team that will step up to meet his asking price. If we can get Maeda for cheap and on a more limited term, he'd be a nice addition to try out.

Given all the options you've laid out, Neddy, I'm comfortable with what he have at the 4th and 5th starter positions. We'll just have to see if anything develops in terms of trades or prospect evaluation for the upper half of the rotation whether it's before opening day or after the All-Star break.

[Ranma]

[Quake Griffin]

interesting to not hear Urias's name mentioned.


GMs around the league think he's overrated?

[Ranma]

interesting to not hear Urias's name mentioned.


GMs around the league think he's overrated?

I don't think GMs think Urias is overrated just yet. It just seems like they put more weight into recent performance. Hence, Corey Seager leapt ahead of Byron Buxton despite Buxton's higher upside in the form of his all-around tools. Likewise, Julio Urias fell because he not only took time off for cosmetic surgery for his left eye, but struggled in his only 2 starts in AAA upon his return.

Buxton was quite the popular choice as the top prospect for 2015 and it now looks like Seager may have that distinction for 2016. However, Lucas Giolito was already ahead of Urias in the rankings in 2015, so his lack of progress allowed others to surpass him with the out-of-sight-out-of-mind mentality of GMs. The surprising thing is that the gap closed on Giolito's lead as the top pitching prospect. I still have faith that Urias will end up performing better than everyone outside of Giolito on the list and that, once Giolito graduates to the majors, Urias will be the top minor league prospect by mid-season.

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (12/27/15)

Who's No. 1?
Seager, Dodgers -- 27
Buxton, Twins -- 4
J.P. Crawford, Phillies -- 1
Undecided -- 1
...

Many polled pointed to Seager's advanced hitting skills as the reason for picking him. The fact that most see him able to stay at shortstop, at least for the time being, means he's also an up-the-middle player with the ability to make a tremendous offensive impact.

"I certainly understand Buxton's upside, but I'd go with Corey Seager," a second general manager said. "Rarely do you find a player with both a high floor and high ceiling. He not only has skills and tools, but also great makeup to go along with it."

"The impact bat at the shortstop position, plus the fact that he has been more durable, gives him the edge for me," one pro scouting director added.

"[Seager is] an extremely polished bat with the ability to do damage," one assistant GM said. "He gives high-caliber defense on the left side of the infield. He is a huge-ceiling player with a high probability to succeed."
...

Who is the best pitching prospect?
Lucas Giolito, Nationals -- 7
Blake Snell, Rays -- 6
Tyler Glasnow, Pirates -- 2
Sean Newcomb, Braves -- 2
Julio Urias, Dodgers -- 1
Jose Berrios, Twins -- 1
Sean Manaea, A's -- 1

Youth Tube: Top Prospects in Execs' Eyes

[Neddy]

interesting to not hear Urias's name mentioned.


GMs around the league think he's overrated?

a major part of what goes into computing who the best prospects are, is how major league ready the partiular prospect is. Seager, just like Buxton, is most likely gonna start the season with the major league ball club but it is highly unlikely for Urias. otherwise some 19 year old stud who is destroying competition at the rookie ball league would have just as much merit to be considered #1 guy as anyone else.