Official Draft Thread 2015-16

[threrf23]

Couple of years ago, someone wrote a good article about how freshman year is a much better indicator of future success than junior or senior year. And really, when you go through drafts you find guys who struggled/haven't play much in their 1st year, had a good 3rd or 4th year, got picked in lottery and busted. Guys like Joe Alexander, Wesley Johnson, Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Terence Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jimmer, Thomas Robinson..

To elaborate a little bit more on this point, my experience as an armchair statistician & draft analyst, suggests that most players see a big boost in performance after turning 21. Production after the age of 21 isn't a bad thing, but it proves little. Those who have legit NBA talent off the bat are usually capable of producing before the age of 21. Those who can produce thereafter, are a dime a dozen.

While I'm not so sure of the exact importance of Freshman year, consistency is also an important indicator, at least for the purpose of minimizing risk and estimating professionalism and motivation. Top of my head, Will Barton and Nik Stauskas stick out to me as random examples of guys who were not really on peoples' radar out of HS, and showed a drastic improvement Freshman to Sophomore years.

Side note, I just took my first glance at Ben Simmons' stats & nbadraft.net profile. He sounds like the real deal to me. Anybody disagree?

[darrendaye]

Well, this year's IT, Kahlil Felder is now on the national radar. 5'9" lefty. Good bulk. Can dunk.

[165bows]

Nylon Calculus' first statistical projection. Fairly different than the DX mock. Rabb at #2.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/12/24/draft-prospects-to-watch/

I will say I've gotten pretty good at eyeballing who will be on these lists, same applies for those in this thread as well. Only a couple of intl guys on their boards that haven't been brought up here already.

[AgentGreen]

I dont understand the people complaining about Simmons. Yeah he needs to work on his shot and with the potential he has, he could turn into a decent shooter, but that isn't everything. He's almost a complete player at such a young age, which makes him obviously the no.1 pick at the moment.

Look at the players we have right now, IT/AB/KO/RJ and potentially Young, why am i referring to them? Because they can shoot the 3. Now imagine we have a Simmons on our team, an upgrade over Turner, he's driving towards the lane getting the attention of the opponent who will double team him in the post. One of our deadly 3-point shooters will be wide open.

Simmons will turn this team, which is a very good passing team already, into a great passing team. Especially when we can add a healthy Noah at the 5. That would be so fun to watch and if Simmons develops a solid jumper in the next years it will be a big, big bonus for us. You will have a younger version of Lebron on your team.

Also, if Brad can teach KO and Young how to play defense, then he can definitely teach Simmons how to play defense too.

[Celtsfan1980]

If Mickey sits this season or Olynyk continues playing well, how do you possibly go after another Power Forward? With a small forward you can just split Crowder's minutes at the 3 and 4. It's the same reason part of me would prefer Ingram over Simmons. Skal or Bender would be the worst decisions Ainge can make at this point.

[Homerclease]

If Mickey sits this season or Olynyk continues playing well, how do you possibly go after another Power Forward? With a small forward you can just split Crowder's minutes at the 3 and 4. It's the same reason part of me would prefer Ingram over Simmons. Skal or Bender would be the worst decisions Ainge can make at this point.

I happen to think the complete opposite, the celtics are desperate for able big bodies. They only have 3 between two positions right now

[lon3lytoaster]

If Mickey sits this season or Olynyk continues playing well, how do you possibly go after another Power Forward? With a small forward you can just split Crowder's minutes at the 3 and 4. It's the same reason part of me would prefer Ingram over Simmons. Skal or Bender would be the worst decisions Ainge can make at this point.

If I'm not mistaken, we're in the mid 20's in terms of rebounds per game. That's one of the metrics we're currently lacking in and could stand to improve - an upgrade to PF or C is more critical than an upgrade to Crowder who's on a pretty sharp upward arc right now.

[Cornbread]

If Mickey sits this season or Olynyk continues playing well, how do you possibly go after another Power Forward? With a small forward you can just split Crowder's minutes at the 3 and 4. It's the same reason part of me would prefer Ingram over Simmons. Skal or Bender would be the worst decisions Ainge can make at this point.

If I'm not mistaken, we're in the mid 20's in terms of rebounds per game. That's one of the metrics we're currently lacking in and could stand to improve - an upgrade to PF or C is more critical than an upgrade to Crowder who's on a pretty sharp upward arc right now.

Plus there is a pretty decent chance Sully and Zeller may not be back.

Simmons would be a great fit on this team.


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[Homerclease]

One possibility I haven't heard often is trading down. Let's say the celtics get the 4th pick this year and miss out on Simmons and Ingram, is it worth it to trade down into the mid lotto for a guy like poeltl or stay put and roll the dice on guys like brown bender or skal

[ddb]

One possibility I haven't heard often is trading down. Let's say the celtics get the 4th pick this year and miss out on Simmons and Ingram, is it worth it to trade down into the mid lotto for a guy like poeltl or stay put and roll the dice on guys like brown bender or skal

I think at that point you move forward with a trade for Cousins, Butler, or someone along those lines with the #4 pick as the centerpiece. A Ray Allen type of move. Then you hope for the best in free agency.

[Banks2Pierce]

how do you possibly go after another Power Forward?

Every good GM of all time in any sport harps on BPA and I'm inclined to agree with them.

[165bows]

I was excited about Murray in HS but now he reminds me of Courtney Lee.

[165bows]

If ever a team was made for Simmons it's a ball handling deficient back court one like Smart-Avery Bradley. Dude has been assisted on five buckets away from the rim all season.

[Bar Fight]

If Mickey sits this season or Olynyk continues playing well, how do you possibly go after another Power Forward? With a small forward you can just split Crowder's minutes at the 3 and 4. It's the same reason part of me would prefer Ingram over Simmons. Skal or Bender would be the worst decisions Ainge can make at this point.

If Simmons continues to be the unquestioned best player in the Draft, you take him. Always go with the best player available IMO. Ingram has been playing well lately, but as of now I'd still have Simmons solidly ahead of him.

[Homerclease]

If Mickey sits this season or Olynyk continues playing well, how do you possibly go after another Power Forward? With a small forward you can just split Crowder's minutes at the 3 and 4. It's the same reason part of me would prefer Ingram over Simmons. Skal or Bender would be the worst decisions Ainge can make at this point.

If Simmons continues to be the unquestioned best player in the Draft, you take him. Always go with the best player available IMO. Ingram has been playing well lately, but as of now I'd still have Simmons solidly ahead of him.

Agree with this. You plug Simmons in at the 4 immediately. You have guys like crowder and smart and Bradley to help mask his defense early on, they will get killed on the glass as currently constructed but the positives would far outweigh the negatives. Ingram would be a great consolation prize but I'm not even sure you start him over Crowder at this point. With this draft if they land a top 5 pick I really don't think there's a wrong answer between Simmons, Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Bender or Skal. I'm also high on Poeltl but I think top 5 is a bit of a reach for him at this point.

[mbsnmisc]

It is always BPA. Drafting for need is the fast track to mediocrity. This roster, as currently constituted is not close to championship quality. I like everyone of our players, (minus Lee), but no one is close to untouchable.

[FlatearthZorro]

This draft doesn't excite me too much.... Wouldn't mind Ainge trading the pick for a good player.

[BfB]

Couple of years ago, someone wrote a good article about how freshman year is a much better indicator of future success than junior or senior year. And really, when you go through drafts you find guys who struggled/haven't play much in their 1st year, had a good 3rd or 4th year, got picked in lottery and busted. Guys like Joe Alexander, Wesley Johnson, Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Terence Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jimmer, Thomas Robinson..

To elaborate a little bit more on this point, my experience as an armchair statistician & draft analyst, suggests that most players see a big boost in performance after turning 21. Production after the age of 21 isn't a bad thing, but it proves little. Those who have legit NBA talent off the bat are usually capable of producing before the age of 21. Those who can produce thereafter, are a dime a dozen.

While I'm not so sure of the exact importance of Freshman year, consistency is also an important indicator, at least for the purpose of minimizing risk and estimating professionalism and motivation. Top of my head, Will Barton and Nik Stauskas stick out to me as random examples of guys who were not really on peoples' radar out of HS, and showed a drastic improvement Freshman to Sophomore years.

Side note, I just took my first glance at Ben Simmons' stats & nbadraft.net profile. He sounds like the real deal to me. Anybody disagree?

There are ancillary factors in play in this equation. Teams typically give younger players more opportunity for a longer period of time as well. Most of the players on the example list also had known circumstantial "issues" that contributed to their delayed development at the collegiate level.

So, older player success may be more of an outlier but you have to do a full evaluation of the circumstances that player developed in and where he is being asked to develop in the future. If you don't properly account for those variables you'll miss the good ones and bust on the bad ones.

[BfB]

If Mickey sits this season or Olynyk continues playing well, how do you possibly go after another Power Forward? With a small forward you can just split Crowder's minutes at the 3 and 4. It's the same reason part of me would prefer Ingram over Simmons. Skal or Bender would be the worst decisions Ainge can make at this point.

If Simmons continues to be the unquestioned best player in the Draft, you take him. Always go with the best player available IMO. Ingram has been playing well lately, but as of now I'd still have Simmons solidly ahead of him.

Agree with this. You plug Simmons in at the 4 immediately. You have guys like crowder and smart and Bradley to help mask his defense early on, they will get killed on the glass as currently constructed but the positives would far outweigh the negatives. Ingram would be a great consolation prize but I'm not even sure you start him over Crowder at this point. With this draft if they land a top 5 pick I really don't think there's a wrong answer between Simmons, Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Bender or Skal. I'm also high on Poeltl but I think top 5 is a bit of a reach for him at this point.

If you are starting a rookie and expecting an upgrade in production you are most likely not a playoff team.

[Homerclease]

If Simmons continues to be the unquestioned best player in the Draft, you take him. Always go with the best player available IMO. Ingram has been playing well lately, but as of now I'd still have Simmons solidly ahead of him.

Agree with this. You plug Simmons in at the 4 immediately. You have guys like crowder and smart and Bradley to help mask his defense early on, they will get killed on the glass as currently constructed but the positives would far outweigh the negatives. Ingram would be a great consolation prize but I'm not even sure you start him over Crowder at this point. With this draft if they land a top 5 pick I really don't think there's a wrong answer between Simmons, Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Bender or Skal. I'm also high on Poeltl but I think top 5 is a bit of a reach for him at this point.

If you are starting a rookie and expecting an upgrade in production you are most likely not a playoff team.

Of course, but how many playoff teams have top 5 picks?