Official Draft Thread 2015-16

[jmr07019]

How many rookies will be as good as Ben Simmoms on a team that isn't complete trash? 0

[Gomes3PC]

Nylon Calculus' first statistical projection. Fairly different than the DX mock. Rabb at #2.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/12/24/draft-prospects-to-watch/

I will say I've gotten pretty good at eyeballing who will be on these lists, same applies for those in this thread as well. Only a couple of intl guys on their boards that haven't been brought up here already.

Rabb has been on my radar - the HS rankings, measurements and per-minute stats all point to a guy who is going to be a very good pro.

They also have another of my favorite bigs, Deyonta Davis, sitting in the top-10. Will need to watch some more IU hoops to see how Thomas Bryant has been playing - I liked him when I saw him in limited action during the HS all-star games but that's not real basketball, just a glorified layup line.

[Gomes3PC]

Agree with this. You plug Simmons in at the 4 immediately. You have guys like crowder and smart and Bradley to help mask his defense early on, they will get killed on the glass as currently constructed but the positives would far outweigh the negatives. Ingram would be a great consolation prize but I'm not even sure you start him over Crowder at this point. With this draft if they land a top 5 pick I really don't think there's a wrong answer between Simmons, Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Bender or Skal. I'm also high on Poeltl but I think top 5 is a bit of a reach for him at this point.

If you are starting a rookie and expecting an upgrade in production you are most likely not a playoff team.

Of course, but how many playoff teams have top 5 picks?

All the more reason to lower expectations on year-one impact from a top-5 pick. Playoff teams have better players than lotto pick teams. If rookies struggle to help lotto pick teams get better, it's totally unrealistic to assume they will help an already-good roster.

Outside of Kris Dunn, who is a junior and can have a Smart-like defensive impact on day one, I don't see a guy in this draft who would step on the court and help a playoff team in more than a 10 MPG type role.

[Banks2Pierce]

Rabb has been on my radar - the HS rankings, measurements and per-minute stats all point to a guy who is going to be a very good pro.

Y'all seem to like Rabb a lot. I got a bit of a tweener vibe off of him where his skills maybe aren't spectacular enough to be a 4 and his athleticism/size isn't good enough to be a 5. He'll be a contributor, but I mean as far as potential for stardom. Only caught 2 games, though. Do you see him as a 4 or 5?

[Gomes3PC]

The likelihood of finding a star in any draft is low, and I'm not sure in this draft there is a KAT/Anthony Davis type - Simmons is closest but he is closer to Jahlil than Davis. Rabb is a very good athlete and is already showing skills that will translate to the NBA, like rebounding, ability to run the floor and a nice touch around the rim.

[ParticleMan]

rabb is a "big" in our scheme. 4/5 is irrelevant. i think his best comp is chris bosh (as a ceiling). he will still fill out into the 235-240 range, i think, so he will not be undersized at the big position by today's standards. he has a nice skill set, though has to develop his range and handles a bit. he is also reportedly a mature kid, and his coach is very defense-oriented so he will not be clueless on that end.

[Murta]

Rabb has been on my radar - the HS rankings, measurements and per-minute stats all point to a guy who is going to be a very good pro.

Y'all seem to like Rabb a lot. I got a bit of a tweener vibe off of him where his skills maybe aren't spectacular enough to be a 4 and his athleticism/size isn't good enough to be a 5. He'll be a contributor, but I mean as far as potential for stardom. Only caught 2 games, though. Do you see him as a 4 or 5?

I think Rabb's one of those guys whom you need to see in the NBA to know how they will fare. Which is hard to say in an age when everybody has strong opinions about every player. On the one hand he's athletic, talented, plays decent defense, but on the other he's only 6ft9, his shooting is extremely mediocre and his court vision is suspect.
I mean, he could improve as a shooter and creator while maintaining his intensity level and become another David West or improve just marginally, decide he doen't need to try that much any more and have a pointless career like JJ Hickson or Aflalo who because of that aren't role players on a contender, but neither top players for mid-table squads.

[Banks2Pierce]

rabb is a "big" in our scheme. 4/5 is irrelevant.

I disagree with Stevens on this as well. 4/5 is not irrelevant. You can call Jonas Jerebko a swing all you want, but he can't perform as a 3 with two other big men in the game. You can call Olynyk a C, but he can't guard or rebound for the position. He is a PF. Jared Sullinger can probably guard 3 or 4 starting PFs in the entire league right now and most Cs. He is a C. There are still positional distinctions on the court until there is even more leaguewide smallball upheaval.

[Homerclease]

If you are starting a rookie and expecting an upgrade in production you are most likely not a playoff team.

Of course, but how many playoff teams have top 5 picks?

All the more reason to lower expectations on year-one impact from a top-5 pick. Playoff teams have better players than lotto pick teams. If rookies struggle to help lotto pick teams get better, it's totally unrealistic to assume they will help an already-good roster.

Outside of Kris Dunn, who is a junior and can have a Smart-like defensive impact on day one, I don't see a guy in this draft who would step on the court and help a playoff team in more than a 10 MPG type role.

Any player who plays the 4/5 position could have a giant impact on this team next year seeing as only Mickey and KO are under contract after this season

[Gomes3PC]

Rabb has been on my radar - the HS rankings, measurements and per-minute stats all point to a guy who is going to be a very good pro.

Y'all seem to like Rabb a lot. I got a bit of a tweener vibe off of him where his skills maybe aren't spectacular enough to be a 4 and his athleticism/size isn't good enough to be a 5. He'll be a contributor, but I mean as far as potential for stardom. Only caught 2 games, though. Do you see him as a 4 or 5?

I think Rabb's one of those guys whom you need to see in the NBA to know how they will fare. Which is hard to say in an age when everybody has strong opinions about every player. On the one hand he's athletic, talented, plays decent defense, but on the other he's only 6ft9, his shooting is extremely mediocre and his court vision is suspect.
I mean, he could improve as a shooter and creator while maintaining his intensity level and become another David West or improve just marginally, decide he doen't need to try that much any more and have a pointless career like JJ Hickson or Aflalo who because of that aren't role players on a contender, but neither top players for mid-table squads.

Look at his length and not his height. He's got a 7-3 wingspan, better than Poeltl. Very similar to Mickey IMO. Is that a top-5 guy? No, but for the Mavs/Cs pick he's a really nice piece.

[No-Man]

Rabb is a top5-7 pick as of now hands down, no way he lasts till the Mavs/Cs pick

[Gomes3PC]

Of course, but how many playoff teams have top 5 picks?

All the more reason to lower expectations on year-one impact from a top-5 pick. Playoff teams have better players than lotto pick teams. If rookies struggle to help lotto pick teams get better, it's totally unrealistic to assume they will help an already-good roster.

Outside of Kris Dunn, who is a junior and can have a Smart-like defensive impact on day one, I don't see a guy in this draft who would step on the court and help a playoff team in more than a 10 MPG type role.

Any player who plays the 4/5 position could have a giant impact on this team next year seeing as only Mickey and KO are under contract after this season

Amir Johnson is under contract, as is Jonas Jerebko. WTF are you talking about? They both have team options. The C's aren't going into 2016-17 with only KO and Mickey. More likely than not, one of Sully/Zeller re-ups and they pick up the option on Amir. Mickey fills in as a 4th big and that opens an opportunity for a draft pick.

[Homerclease]

All the more reason to lower expectations on year-one impact from a top-5 pick. Playoff teams have better players than lotto pick teams. If rookies struggle to help lotto pick teams get better, it's totally unrealistic to assume they will help an already-good roster.

Outside of Kris Dunn, who is a junior and can have a Smart-like defensive impact on day one, I don't see a guy in this draft who would step on the court and help a playoff team in more than a 10 MPG type role.

Any player who plays the 4/5 position could have a giant impact on this team next year seeing as only Mickey and KO are under contract after this season

Amir Johnson is under contract, as is Jonas Jerebko. WTF are you talking about? They both have team options. The C's aren't going into 2016-17 with only KO and Mickey. More likely than not, one of Sully/Zeller re-ups and they pick up the option on Amir. Mickey fills in as a 4th big and that opens an opportunity for a draft pick.

Yes I realize this, but the celtics could very well choose not to pick up options on either of those guys next year leaving only two guys under contract. There's certainly an opportunity for a rookie big to crack the rotation here.

Do I expect the celtics to let Zeller and Sully walk and also decline options on Amir and JJ? No, but the future of the celtics frontcourt is very cloudy going into the offseason

[No-Man]

I expect the C's to let Zeller and Lee walk, retain Sully and bring back Johnson unless there is good opportuity out there in terms of FA, not likely, that means, Olynyk, Sullinger, Mickey, Johnson and Jerebko, plus a big via draft, so more or less you close the frontcourt.

[Murta]

Y'all seem to like Rabb a lot. I got a bit of a tweener vibe off of him where his skills maybe aren't spectacular enough to be a 4 and his athleticism/size isn't good enough to be a 5. He'll be a contributor, but I mean as far as potential for stardom. Only caught 2 games, though. Do you see him as a 4 or 5?

I think Rabb's one of those guys whom you need to see in the NBA to know how they will fare. Which is hard to say in an age when everybody has strong opinions about every player. On the one hand he's athletic, talented, plays decent defense, but on the other he's only 6ft9, his shooting is extremely mediocre and his court vision is suspect.
I mean, he could improve as a shooter and creator while maintaining his intensity level and become another David West or improve just marginally, decide he doen't need to try that much any more and have a pointless career like JJ Hickson or Aflalo who because of that aren't role players on a contender, but neither top players for mid-table squads.

Look at his length and not his height. He's got a 7-3 wingspan, better than Poeltl. Very similar to Mickey IMO. Is that a top-5 guy? No, but for the Mavs/Cs pick he's a really nice piece.

That's a valid point, but my concern for Rabb is that he will need to play C because of small-ball and his lack of shooting/creativity where his size is mediocre.
David West whom I mentioned has a 7ft4 wingspan. Thomas Robinson has 7ft3. Both have nearly identical height. Those are basically ceiling and floor for Rabb in 90% of cases.
But I generally like Rabb and I think he's closer to West than Robinson. He just needs to develop shooting or floor vision. But both are at palatable level currently and he's young, so there's a good chance he does reach his ceiling.

[Gomes3PC]

I think Rabb's one of those guys whom you need to see in the NBA to know how they will fare. Which is hard to say in an age when everybody has strong opinions about every player. On the one hand he's athletic, talented, plays decent defense, but on the other he's only 6ft9, his shooting is extremely mediocre and his court vision is suspect.
I mean, he could improve as a shooter and creator while maintaining his intensity level and become another David West or improve just marginally, decide he doen't need to try that much any more and have a pointless career like JJ Hickson or Aflalo who because of that aren't role players on a contender, but neither top players for mid-table squads.

Look at his length and not his height. He's got a 7-3 wingspan, better than Poeltl. Very similar to Mickey IMO. Is that a top-5 guy? No, but for the Mavs/Cs pick he's a really nice piece.

That's a valid point, but my concern for Rabb is that he will need to play C because of small-ball and his lack of shooting/creativity where his size is mediocre.
David West whom I mentioned has a 7ft4 wingspan. Thomas Robinson has 7ft3. Both have nearly identical height. Those are basically ceiling and floor for Rabb in 90% of cases.
But I generally like Rabb and I think he's closer to West than Robinson. He just needs to develop shooting or floor vision. But both are at palatable level currently and he's young, so there's a good chance he does reach his ceiling.

If you end up with David West with a pick in teens that's not a home run, that's a freaking grand slam. The only time you should be disappointed with a pick if "all" he becomes is David West would be a top-2/3 pick. And if Rabb goes that high he will have shown at some point this year he's got a lot more shooting touch than currently shown.

[Bar Fight]

I've been 100% aboard the Simmons hype train, but Ingram has been closing the gap lately. He's much improved already from where he was at the start of the season.

[Celtsfan1980]

Outside of Kris Dunn, who is a junior and can have a Smart-like defensive impact on day one, I don't see a guy in this draft who would step on the court and help a playoff team in more than a 10 MPG type role.

Ingram can't? The hatred against rookies here is absurd.

[165bows]

I've been 100% aboard the Simmons hype train, but Ingram has been closing the gap lately. He's much improved already from where he was at the start of the season.

Mike Schmitz ‏@Mike_Schmitz 11h11 hours ago

Brandon Ingram's last 5 games: 22.8 PTS, 8.8 boards, 2.0 STL, 1.8 BLK, 17-30 ( 57%) from 3.

PS, Simmons has played the 320th hardest schedule so far (out of 351 D1 teams). Opposing defenses faced rank 306. He's clearly talented, I just am not going to jump on the franchise-savior bandwagon with him until he's played more real teams.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSPythag

[Crossy2008]

Simmons still doesn't have a jumper. I like Jamal Murray right now but I need to know more about his defense abilities.