Knowing what you know now, leaving Hornacek out of it, did we really have the talent to be a playoff team?

[JMac1]

I thought so......

[AtheJ415]

But so do the other teams I mentioned, which means it's a crapshoot for that last seed. They are all playing below potential, mainly because they are all playing young players, except to a lesser extent, Sacramento and New Orleans, who should, based on raw talent + experience, plus each having one premier player, SHOULD be better than us.

We're better than those other teams. It's not a crapshoot. At least it shouldn't be. Our execution is consistently crap. Our rotations are consistently crap. I can think of 1 player on the entire team who has bought into playing defense despite there being 3 elite defenders on the team, with none of them playing good team defense.

We've played our young players in the past and done better. Our young players are also better than those teams' young players. The only real difference is their top player is better, but the overall young talent isn't close imo. I think Sacramento has way less raw talent than us. Same with NO. I completely disagree there. Both have 1, maybe 2 players each I'd want on this team. And when you look at talent and a season's expectations you have to look at the level of development. Lavine has a ton of talent, but he's not developed or ready to play well. You can say that for all of MN except a couple of guys. That's why they were never a threat and are in reality a worse team than us, even if they have a brighter future 3+ years from now.

New Orleans was better than us last year and has a top 5 player. They were banged up to start the season, but have come on since and beaten us twice. We have only gotten worse since last season, not only losing Markieff, but him being a negative for the team and hanging a big cloud over the organization. Leuer is decent, but he really isn't starting caliber for a good playoff team. As you have mentioned, Tucker sucks, and Warren is a second year player. Bledsoe is better than Leuer, Knight is a tad better than Gordon, Anderson is better than Leuer, and Tyreke is better than anything we have at the 3. But they have a superstar.

Utah was predicted to finish ahead of us and kills us at the SF, PF and C positions. I don't know how you say we are better than those teams.

Sacramento is arguable when it comes to talent. Rondo can be really good, but Bledsoe is better, Cousins is far better than anyone we have and Gay, whether he play the 3 or 4 is better than any of our 3s and 4s.

Minnesota is young, but their C rotation is probably as good, neither of us have great PFs, Towns is better than Booker and Wiggins is better than Warren. Bledsoe edges Rubio. Martin is about as good as Knight. Their talent is superior as well.

Despite all of our problems, and terrible losses with Knight costing us 2 or 3 games with bonehead turnovers, we are still ahead of all but Utah.

With Bledsoe out, we are certainly worse on paper than any of those teams.

I don't think we're talking about talent the same way. I think you're referring to raw talent, regardless of development, while I'm referring to who had the better expected players for this season given how they've performed in the past year and expected development. Michael Beasley, for instance, has a mammoth amount of raw talent, but I wouldn't expect a team of Beasley's to make the playoffs over a team of TJ Warren's, even though Beasley is the better raw talent. So when you ask if we had the talent to make the playoffs, I'm just looking at it as if we, given how we had performed over the last couple of years, taking that expectation combined with additions and subtractions in FA and the draft, and then adding how well some have performed (Leuer, Tele, Booker) in an unexpected positive direction, should we have made it? I think it's clear we had the talent to, but we clearly haven't performed like it, so we clearly don't deserve it.

New Orleans was better than us last year when we had no Knight and us technicalling ourselves out of game after game while losing on insane buzzer beaters left and right, and even then it was damn close. I think you'd have pretty easily seen a different result if you took a normal season. We were the better team last year imo. We just beat ourselves with anger and ran into bad luck with injuries and buzzer beaters and having our 2nd best player acquired mid season via trade.

I could say all of NO sucks aside from Davis. They have Asik who is all defense and offensively inept (essentially Tucker, just paid double the salary). They have Anderson who is all offense but Kanter-like defensively (our Knight, but at PF). They are filled with overpaid 1 way players who barely made it last year with Davis having a truly absurd season. Make no mistake, that is a 1 man team, and they have done a truly horrible job surrounding him with talent. I am not a fan of plenty of our players, but I'll take Bledsoe, Knight, Booker, Warren, Len over their supporting cast this season (long-term that's a different discussion because Davis will become even more of an otherwordly freak of nature). Davis is it. The rest are barely above replacement with quite a few below.

Ryan Anderson is NO's 2nd best player, and he has a much lower WS/48 than both Leuer and Teletovic individually. Defense matters, and Anderson's is scarily bad. He is every bit as bad at defense as he is good at offense. That's why I've been such a Jones advocate in this Markieff target discussion.

All of what you're saying about us getting worse since last season is not talent-related imo. We have gotten worse for a ton of reasons but they aren't related to talent at all imo. Markieff is out of his head, our guys aren't motivated and buying in, and former elite defenders aren't playing defense, but their talent level hasn't decreased. Maybe that's where we differ. I don't see it as Kieff lost talent in the offseason. Same with Tucker. They are playing worse for mental reasons, opportunity, etc.. Yet, Markieff's having an awful year all around while Tucker suddenly can't shoot. If anything, we added Chandler, and expected Bledsoe and him and Tucker to defend well. We have so much more defensive talent than we have shown. I just wouldn't characterize these issues as us having lost talent. We gained talent imo, and our youngsters in fact have shown better individual talent via improvement compared to last year. It's the team overall and team aspects that are failing.

Utah is close, but the fact that their PG spot is a flaming pile of garbage is relevant, and also they don't kill us at center. Tyson alone last year had a higher WS/48 than Gobert. In fact, he had a career high WS last season, and it was much higher than Gobert's. Then, we have Len backing him up. That speaks to our talent base. That said, Tyson has fallen off a cliff this year, which I guess you could say is talent-based since he's getting older, but I don't really believe that. He is not used correctly and is not playing hard because of everything about this team that isn't talent-related (culture, chemistry, direction, leadership, etc.). They have a massive advantage at the 3 and 4, but we have just as big of 1 at the 1 and 2 from a talent perspective, and I do think we have more depth in terms of talent between our backup bigs and Booker and Warren (though both now start).

Cousins is the advantage for Sac. I think we have an advantage everywhere else. Missing on the Stauskas pick and almost all of free agency this year really hurt them. Gay has a WS/48 of 0.08. Warren's is 0.13. That's a big, meaningful gap imo. Gay has never played up to his talent, so again we may be talking about different things here. Gay is one of the most talented SF's in basketball, but he has never been one of the best SF's in basketball imo.

Minnesota has more raw talent than any team in this league aside from maybe GS. The problem is almost none of it is developed. So when you're saying, did we have the talent to make the playoffs, you can't throw Minnesota in there realistically. They are simply way too young and undeveloped to be legitimate playoff contenders this year. Of the guys you mention, the only 2 who are differencemakers today are Towns and Wiggins. Bledsoe doesn't edge Rubio--he kills him, even this year when Bledsoe hasn't been playing defense. The advanced stats really favor Bledsoe. Shooting matters a lot. The gap is nearly the difference between Leuer and Towns. When you look at the rest of the team though, it's hard to say they have more talent THIS YEAR, even though it's obvious Minnesota has more raw, athletic talent which is still developing skills and know-how.

Our backcourt, which our fans are understandably upset about due to its lack of performance and underachieving on defense and in crunch time, absolutely obliterates every team mentioned from a talent perspective. I'll leave Bledsoe and Booker since most seem more understanding that they are talented. Let's look at Knight. I'll borrow this from Brightside:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2011&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=19.7&c2stat=ast_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=5.1&c3stat=trb_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=3.8&c4stat=stl_per_g&c4comp=gt&c4val=1.4&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

Knight is one of 4 NBA players in 5 seasons to put up his combination of points, rebounds, and assists at his age. The other 3 are Westbrook, Curry, and Harden. He has more talent than I think is being credited in this discussion. He was a borderline all star last year, which none of the guys on any of those teams have at any guard spots.

Then you throw in Bledsoe who is an all-star caliber player this year (he won't make it, but he's not even borderline. He put up all-star numbers, which are better than some who will make it). And then Booker, who has shown to be way ready than expected. Our backcourt is a huge advantage against all of the teams mentioned, and I think it's every bit the gap that our front court suffers. Leuer and Tele have been much better than I think people realize. We haven't been at a disadvantage because of their having to start at all, which is why this season has been so frustrating to me. There's no real excuse for what we've seen, and it doesn't fall on McDonough either imo, because he gave 2 guys who are outperforming prime Markieff in Leuer and Tele. Both have much better numbers than what Kieff put up last year in terms of advanced stats.

[Damkac]

Don't know if Suns have talent to be a playoff team. But I'm sure Suns have a talent to play better than they played lately.

[MrMiyagi]

Can I just remind everyone if we had one more win we'd be in the 9th spot right now? Thanks.

[NTB]

Answer is definitely yes. Snyder, Carlisle, Brad Stevens, Luke Walton or Steve Kerr, Alvin Gentry would surely put Suns in playoffs.

[bwgood77]

Answer is definitely yes. Snyder, Carlisle, Brad Stevens, Luke Walton or Steve Kerr, Alvin Gentry would surely put Suns in playoffs.

First three maybe. Carlisle for sure. Last three, maybe Kerr...the other two no way.

[Dirk]

Yes, every other team that is around the playoffs, Mavs, Kings, Pelicans, Jazz has flaws. Hell, with what we're seeing this year, you can add some other teams to this junk list. The Suns have been in turmoil all year and were never able to build up any chemistry or team identity. But in an hypothetical world where there weren't so many issues, purely from a talent stand point, they'd have a good shot.

[bwgood77]

Yes, every other team that is around the playoffs, Mavs, Kings, Pelicans, Jazz has flaws. Hell, with what we're seeing this year, you can add some other teams to this junk list. The Suns have been in turmoil all year and were never able to build up any chemistry or team identity. But in an hypothetical world where there weren't so many issues, purely from a talent stand point, they'd have a good shot.

I somewhat agree, but I'd say maybe a 30% chance which I'm not sure if you consider that a good shot or not...but with Markieff distracting the team and actually being a negative, I'd say the expectations should maybe be around 15% at best.

[NTB]

Answer is definitely yes. Snyder, Carlisle, Brad Stevens, Luke Walton or Steve Kerr, Alvin Gentry would surely put Suns in playoffs.

First three maybe. Carlisle for sure. Last three, maybe Kerr...the other two no way.

You've lost faith in Gentry? Pelicans was without Tyreke and they played Holiday for 15 mins maximum in the beginning of the season.

[bwgood77]

Answer is definitely yes. Snyder, Carlisle, Brad Stevens, Luke Walton or Steve Kerr, Alvin Gentry would surely put Suns in playoffs.

First three maybe. Carlisle for sure. Last three, maybe Kerr...the other two no way.

You've lost faith in Gentry? Pelicans was without Tyreke and they played Holiday for 15 mins maximum in the beginning of the season.

No, I like him, but without super talent I'd take Hornacek. Gentry didn't do too much once Amare left....with Dragic, a half year of Bledsoe (the Green), PJ, Frye and Plumlee, I can't see 48 wins.

[Dirk]

Yes, every other team that is around the playoffs, Mavs, Kings, Pelicans, Jazz has flaws. Hell, with what we're seeing this year, you can add some other teams to this junk list. The Suns have been in turmoil all year and were never able to build up any chemistry or team identity. But in an hypothetical world where there weren't so many issues, purely from a talent stand point, they'd have a good shot.

I somewhat agree, but I'd say maybe a 30% chance which I'm not sure if you consider that a good shot or not...but with Markieff distracting the team and actually being a negative, I'd say the expectations should maybe be around 15% at best.

Rondo's numbers are good I guess(hard not to e biased against him), but I didn't expect the Kings to be better than the Suns with what I perceived would be spacing issues and then Cousins just hasn't shown himself to be a leader. I don't know, that guy just has so much negativity around him most of the time, always pouting about something, he is such a distraction. I'd obviously love to have him on my team, thinking that maybe he'd be different in another environment, but yeah, watching them play, it kind of feels he is overly emotional and pouty and brings a team down.

The Jazz were winning based on defense, defense, defense, their offense was not good and they had no PG? They had a guy who couldn't shoot(Exum) and a guy who would not stop bricking shots(Burke). They are also young and the damage they did last year was mostly in the second half of the season where... maybe they catch other teams not playing has hard? But I mostly go with the games I watch vs Mavs and they were ways off being a solid reliable team - the Mavs blew them out twice last year and won once without two main guys(Ellis, Chandler), so I just never warmed to the hype that team had. The Pelicans are or were kind of in the same boat as the Jazz. They've been a team that lacks a true identity and is very up and down. Evans, Gordon, Anderson have been very incosistent, Holiday always in and out of lineup. Re-signing Asik meh. So, coming to this year, I noticed that Pelicans/Jazz were the favoured teams. To me, I thought Mavs could sneak in based on history and the hope of injured guys bouncing back into form. And I had the Suns very close to those teams. Bledsoe, Knight, Tucker, Morris, Chandler... that is a solid lineup on paper. If you now add the fact that the West has been poor and teams like the Rockets and Grizzles have been in turmoil as well, it makes it look even more likely that in that abstract scenario of "no issues", the Suns should be in the playoffs.

[bwgood77]

Yes, every other team that is around the playoffs, Mavs, Kings, Pelicans, Jazz has flaws. Hell, with what we're seeing this year, you can add some other teams to this junk list. The Suns have been in turmoil all year and were never able to build up any chemistry or team identity. But in an hypothetical world where there weren't so many issues, purely from a talent stand point, they'd have a good shot.

I somewhat agree, but I'd say maybe a 30% chance which I'm not sure if you consider that a good shot or not...but with Markieff distracting the team and actually being a negative, I'd say the expectations should maybe be around 15% at best.

Rondo's numbers are good I guess(hard not to e biased against him), but I didn't expect the Kings to be better than the Suns with what I perceived would be spacing issues and then Cousins just hasn't shown himself to be a leader. I don't know, that guy just has so much negativity around him most of the time, always pouting about something, he is such a distraction. I'd obviously love to have him on my team, thinking that maybe he'd be different in another environment, but yeah, watching them play, it kind of feels he is overly emotional and pouty and brings a team down.

The Jazz were winning based on defense, defense, defense, their offense was not good and they had no PG? They had a guy who couldn't shoot(Exum) and a guy who would not stop bricking shots(Burke). They are also young and the damage they did last year was mostly in the second half of the season where... maybe they catch other teams not playing has hard? But I mostly go with the games I watch vs Mavs and they were ways off being a solid reliable team - the Mavs blew them out twice last year and won once without two main guys(Ellis, Chandler), so I just never warmed to the hype that team had. The Pelicans are or were kind of in the same boat as the Jazz. They've been a team that lacks a true identity and is very up and down. Evans, Gordon, Anderson have been very incosistent, Holiday always in and out of lineup. Re-signing Asik meh. So, coming to this year, I noticed that Pelicans/Jazz were the favoured teams. To me, I thought Mavs could sneak in based on history and the hope of injured guys bouncing back into form. And I had the Suns very close to those teams. Bledsoe, Knight, Tucker, Morris, Chandler... that is a solid lineup on paper. If you now add the fact that the West has been poor and teams like the Rockets and Grizzles have been in turmoil as well, it makes it look even more likely that in that abstract scenario of "no issues", the Suns should be in the playoffs.

Even with Morris being not only a non factor but a negative, creating a cloud over the organization? Starting Leuer instead? Leuer has been fairly solid, but coming into the season would you have expected that? He's not taking over games and being clutch to be our closer like Morris could.

[Dirk]

Even with Morris being not only a non factor but a negative, creating a cloud over the organization? Starting Leuer instead? Leuer has been fairly solid, but coming into the season would you have expected that? He's not taking over games and being clutch to be our closer like Morris could.

Oh, I was writing under the assumption that Morris was playing with a clean slate. He did start against the Mavs and everything, so I thought he was "all in" with the Suns. Obviously, then we saw that he very visibly wasn't trying his hardest and was sabotaging the team. If I assume that kind of Morris, then yeah, very unlikely to see the Suns making the playoffs. I was assuming every guy to be playing their normal/close to their best and in that context, I viewed the Suns as a legit candidate and very close the trendy picks of NO and Utah. Anyway, all of this might be a blessing. Just tank(play the young guys more) and be done with it. Going back to last year, the Suns have failed in their every trade & free agency move - especially the one giving up the Lakers pick, so it'll be better to reset rather than cling on to hopes of being a bottom seed in the playoffs.

[jcsunsfan]

Yes. The talent is here to be a playoff team. But they have to play great team ball.

[8on]

Sacramento, New Orleans, and Minnesota are all worse than us. Inconclusive. Check out my recent post.....without having seen yours, admittedly.

[8on]

That said, my question is different in nature. Yours is, "how good are we really?" Mine is, "how far behind are we?"

[Puff]

Yes. The talent is here to be a playoff team. But they have to play great team ball.

I agree totally.

What really irritates me is when posters say Booker should take mores shots. I choose to think the team and coach need to get him more shots. Unlike Bledsoe and Knight he is a very willing passer and keeps the ball moving while keeping his teammates involved, maybe to a fault. If the team shares the ball there should be plenty of shots for Booker and everyone else that wants to be part of the team.

If Booker starts chucking up bad shots we are back to where we started. For a 19 year old he is the best leader we have on the court, IMO. Most of the time Knight appears to be programmed to shoot as quickly as possible, that has to stop. When he is patient and he gets his feet set he is a very good shooter. When he forces things, he sucks. I think the same can be said for everyone.

I am hoping that Hornacek thinks the same and punishes those that don't buy in. He seems to immediately punish Booker and others as soon as they get beat on the defensive end. The same has to hold true on the offensive end.

As JC says "We Have to Play Great Team Ball"

[AtheJ415]

Yes. The talent is here to be a playoff team. But they have to play great team ball.

I agree totally.

What really irritates me is when posters say Booker should take mores shots. I choose to think the team and coach need to get him more shots. Unlike Bledsoe and Knight he is a very willing passer and keeps the ball moving while keeping his teammates involved, maybe to a fault. If the team shares the ball there should be plenty of shots for Booker and everyone else that wants to be part of the team.

If Booker starts chucking up bad shots we are back to where we started. For a 19 year old he is the best leader we have on the court, IMO. Most of the time Knight appears to be programmed to shoot as quickly as possible, that has to stop. When he is patient and he gets his feet set he is a very good shooter. When he forces things, he sucks. I think the same can be said for everyone.

I am hoping that Hornacek thinks the same and punishes those that don't buy in. He seems to immediately punish Booker and others as soon as they get beat on the defensive end. The same has to hold true on the offensive end.

As JC says "We Have to Play Great Team Ball"

I don't think it's a personnel thing. I look at our highlights from last year, and the offense is so much better in terms of physical movement. We do pass, it's just not with a purpose, and so it devolves into a pick and roll at the last second. I think with Knight, Hornacek has gone into more of a stationary offense with 3 point shooters stationary to give them more room to operate as drivers. I think he's done this to way too large an extent. To me this is a schematic issue.