NBA draft lottery history

DavorFanCroatia · Post #1 » by **DavorFanCroatia** » Wed Jan 6, 2016 4:42 pm

With a few Nets Wins it seems like a lot of people panicked about our draft pick. Will Nets have 3rd worse record, 4th worse, 5th worse...But its still LOTTERY.
Lets see results of past 20 draft lottery: (after teams name is their pre-lottery position):

1996. 1. Sixers (1), 2. Raptors (3), 3. Grizzlies (2)
1997. 1. Spurs (3), 2. Sixers (5), 3. Celtics (1)
1998. 1. Clippers (3), 2. Grizzlies (5), 3. Nuggets (1)
1999. 1. Bulls (3), 2. Grizzlies (1), 3. Charlotte (13)
2000. 1. Nets (7), 2. Grizzlies (4), 3. Clippers (1)
2001. 1. Wizzards (3), 2. Clippers (8), 3. Hawks (1)
2002. 1. Rockets (5), 2. Bulls (2), 3. Warriors (1)
2003. 1. Cavs (1), 2. Pistons via Grizzlies (6), 3. Nuggets (2)
2004. 1. Magic (1), 2. Charlotte (5), 3. Bulls (2)
2005. 1. Bucks (6), 2. Hawks (1), 3. Blazers (4)
2006. 1. Raptors (5), 2. Bulls via Knicks (2), 3. Charlotte (3)
2007. 1. Blazers (7), 2. Thunder (5), 3. Hawks (4)...5. Celtics (2)
2008. 1. Bulls (9), 2. Heat (1), 3. Wolves (3)
2009. 1. Clippers (3), 2. Grizzlies (6), 3. Thunder (4)
2010. 1. Wizzards (5), 2. Sixers (6), 3. Nets (1)
2011. 1. Cavs via Clippers (8), 2. Wolves (1), 3. Jazz (6)
2012. 1. Hornets (4), 2. Charlotte (1), 3. Wizzards (2)
2013. 1. Cavs (3), 2. Magic (1), 3. Wizzards (8)
2014. 1. Cavs (9), 2. Bucks (1), 3. Sixers (2)...6. Celtics (5)
2015. 1. Wolves (1), 2. Lakers (4), 3. Sixers (3)

So, in last 20 drafts the team with worst record was drawn first only 4 times (bad news for Sixers). We currently have 3rd position and that position resulted in first overall pick 6 times. If this draft is a two man race with Simmons and Ingram...look at that: 5th pre-lottery position resulted in 3 first and 4 second picks. 6th pre-lottery position resulted in 1 first and 3 second picks.

So, no matter if Nets finish 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th worse...we're still in a good place to grab Simmons or Ingram.

Yes, i know...Celtics had a terrible luck in the lottery. We lost Duncan and select Billups who we traded few months later. We lost Durant and select Green who we traded for Allen and win a title that year. Two years ago we select 6th after we have 5th best odds...but we selected Smart who's much better then Gordon and Exum so that didn't hurt.

But those were all OUR picks. Now we outsourced tanking and have someone else's pick. When we have that in 1986. we had a 2nd pick from Seattle when we have 5th most ping pong balls. Unfortunately Len Bias tragedy changed everything.

I believe this is our year. Our time for little luck. And thats why i will be pissed if Danny trades this pick. We have 35,5 milions in expiring contracts (15 Lee, 12 Amir, 5 JJ and 3,5 ET). We have young players with pottential (Young, Hunter, Mickey, Rozier). We have solid bigs with unique skill set in Olynyk and Sully. We have a great two-way player in Bradley in very team friendly contract. We have all of our picks. Dallas pick this year. Vaulable early seconds from Sixers and Wolves. Option to swap 2017 pick with Nets. 2018. unprotected Nets pick. Potentialy lottery pick from Grizzlies in 2019. Bunch of second round picks.

I hope that Danny can bring a star in Boston without touching 2016. BK pick, Smart, Crowder and Thomas. Becouse this is our year and in june we will walk away with new LeBron (Simmons) or new Durant (Ingram).

mbsnmisc · Post #2 » by **mbsnmisc** » Wed Jan 6, 2016 5:25 pm

It is truly a lottery. Amazing that the number one (pre), has only won 5 times. Thanks for shedding some light on the actual outcomes DFC.

Powe-Fessional · Post #3 » by **Powe-Fessional** » Wed Jan 6, 2016 5:44 pm

Great post, Davor! Timing couldn't have been any better.

jibba jones · Post #4 » by **jibba jones** » Wed Jan 6, 2016 5:55 pm

The Celtics don't win Lotteries. The Celtics win Championships.

DavorFanCroatia · Post #5 » by **DavorFanCroatia** » Wed Jan 6, 2016 5:57 pm

Just look at first overall pick.
20 lottery...6 times to team with 3rd worse score (as Celtics right now), only 4 times for team with worse record and 3 times for teams with 5th worse record (as many pessimist think our Nets score will be)

CeltsfanSinceBirth · Post #6 » by **CeltsfanSinceBirth** » Wed Jan 6, 2016 9:28 pm

You gotta figure that the Cs will get lucky one of these days. I just hope it happens when there is a true franchise player waiting at #1.

jhonbop · Post #7 » by **jhonbop** » Wed Jan 6, 2016 10:25 pm

Even more bad news for the Fakers as the second worst record has never drawn first overall ever and was only drawn second 3x. I guess its why they wanna win so badly to get out of that second worst spot. We actually did have this in the Oden/Durant sweepstakes and we horribly finished 5th.

I too have a very good vibes this yr about the Brooklyn pick. Take note that 86 draft is approaching its 30thanniversary and my gut tells me we repeat history.

Homerclease · Post #8 » by **Homerclease** » Wed Jan 6, 2016 10:28 pm

CeltsfanSinceBirth wrote:You gotta figure that the Cs will get lucky one of these days. I just hope it happens when there is a true franchise player waiting at #1.

Lakers horrible, Kobe retiring...........my spider sense tells me Simmons winds up a laker, and I'm hoping I'm wrong

chakdaddy · Post #9 » by **chakdaddy** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 12:46 am

Homerclease wrote:
CeltsfanSinceBirth wrote:You gotta figure that the Cs will get lucky one of these days. I just hope it happens when there is a true franchise player waiting at #1.

Lakers horrible, Kobe retiring...........my spider sense tells me Simmons winds up a laker, and I'm hoping I'm wrong

You're not. I'm sure it's decided already. I'll believe it's based on luck and not favoritism the first time we move up (and draft a player who lives)

31to6 · Post #10 » by **31to6** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 1:30 am

you... you mean to tell me that nothing is guaranteed in this world? Why didn't you tell me to sit down??

dlamb8888888 · Post #11 » by **dlamb8888888** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 6:41 am

Past results have zero effect on the likelihood of future odds. If I flip a coin five times and it comes up heads four times, there is still a 50/50 chance it comes up tails on the next flip.

soxfan2003 · Post #12 » by **soxfan2003** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 6:58 am

dlamb8888888 wrote:Past results have zero effect on the likelihood of future odds. If I flip a coin five times and it comes up heads four times, there is still a 50/50 chance it comes up tails on the next flip.

I would And 1 million this post if I could.

Looking at past results can be interesting to see which teams were lucky but it obviously has nothing to do with the future in a lottery that is so damn scrutinized by all of the teams and outside auditors as well.

Now if the Lakers came out of nowhere to win the lottery 5 straight years with less than 1% chance to win the lottery each year and the former leader of Enron was the commissioner, I would be suspicious the whole thing isn't rigged.

But its pretty clear that the lottery isn't rigged nowadays.

If you flipped that coin 25 times and I didn't know you and it came up heads 25 times, I would bet heads on the 26th simply because at that point I would assume you have a biased coined that is somehow weighted unevenly.

chakdaddy · Post #13 » by **chakdaddy** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 7:48 am

soxfan2003 wrote:
dlamb8888888 wrote:Past results have zero effect on the likelihood of future odds. If I flip a coin five times and it comes up heads four times, there is still a 50/50 chance it comes up tails on the next flip.

I would And 1 million this post if I could.

Looking at past results can be interesting to see which teams were lucky but it obviously has nothing to do with the future in a lottery that is so damn scrutinized by all of the teams and outside auditors as well.

Now if the Lakers came out of nowhere to win the lottery 5 straight years with less than 1% chance to win the lottery each year and the former leader of Enron was the commissioner, I would be suspicious the whole thing isn't rigged.

But its pretty clear that the lottery isn't rigged nowadays.

If you flipped that coin 25 times and I didn't know you and it came up heads 25 times, I would bet heads on the 26th simply because at that point I would assume you have a biased coined that is somehow weighted unevenly.

But the NBA has clearly had highly biased officiating for years, most blatantly in the Jordan and Shaq / Kobe eras, but also against us many times from letting the bad boys beat us up to completely taking our title in 2010. In the same timeframe we have never moved up in the lotto, while the Lakers have and the Bulls have won twice. Why wouldn't we expect corruption to extend to the lottery?

I'm well aware of the statistical reasons why all the past results can presumably be attributed to random variation - but I won't believe it until I see it. I'm sure it doesn't hold up statistically, but in my eyes our failure to improve a single spot in 2 decades of frequent lottery appearances is similar to the Lakers coming out of nowhere several years in a row.

You can't *dis*prove the rigging, especially when the results continue to dovetail a long history of bias and favoritism

chakdaddy · Post #14 » by **chakdaddy** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 7:52 am

Call me paranoid but I see no reason outside of professional ethics that outside auditors aren't simply assuring that it is rigged to David Stern's specifications. The lack of randomization of combinations is a huge red flag.

SMTBSI · Post #15 » by **SMTBSI** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 11:02 am

chakdaddy wrote:Call me paranoid but I see no reason outside of professional ethics that outside auditors aren't simply assuring that it is rigged to David Stern's specifications. The lack of randomization of combinations is a huge red flag.

The NBA draft lottery is audited by Ernst & Young [1], a firm with nearly six times the revenue of all 30 NBA teams combined. The NBA not one of their larger clients*.

It is absolute insanity to suggest that E&Y would risk tarnishing their global reputation, and relationship with all their other clients, by colluding to rig the lottery.

*

Spoiler:

ConstableGeneva · Post #16 » by **ConstableGeneva** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 11:29 am

Speaking of history, this year's draft lottery is going to be held on May 17, around the time the Boston Celtics are gonna clinch the 2nd round on their way to their 1st Eastern Conference Finals appearance since 2012.

DavorFanCroatia · Post #17 » by **DavorFanCroatia** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 12:28 pm

ConstableGeneva...like we say in Croatia...from your mouth to God's ear

peachbucket · Post #18 » by **peachbucket** » Thu Jan 7, 2016 5:56 pm

mbsnmisc wrote:It is truly a lottery. Amazing that the number one (pre), has only won 5 times. Thanks for shedding some light on the actual outcomes DFC.

The number 1 lottery seed has 25% chance at the number one pick. So 5 wins out of 20 chances is about as amazing as you having to take a piss after drinking a few beers.

chakdaddy · Post #19 » by **chakdaddy** » Fri Jan 8, 2016 12:37 am

peachbucket wrote:
mbsnmisc wrote:It is truly a lottery. Amazing that the number one (pre), has only won 5 times. Thanks for shedding some light on the actual outcomes DFC.

The number 1 lottery seed has 25% chance at the number one pick. So 5 wins out of 20 chances is about as amazing as you having to take a piss after drinking a few beers.

I'd like to see the odds of our failing to move up even once. As much as I'm convinced it's rigged, I doubt that our results are a real statistical outlier. More the results of a terrible system.

chakdaddy · Post #20 » by **chakdaddy** » Fri Jan 8, 2016 12:43 am

The whole point of draft order is to give the top picks to the worst teams and keep things fair.

The whole point of the lottery is to discourage intentional tanking.

With their halfway method of randomizing only 3 picks and giving huge odds incentives at every increment, they fail on both points.