Oklahoma City Thunder Regular Season 2015-2016 Part 2

[Andre Roberstan]

Via Jerry Engelmann, creator of RAPM: top 5-man units in RAPM this season so far

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RccmHSCLVVy_97MTs7nQYemim3tCmZ8_NEX17NXBuKs/edit#gid=0

[spearsy23]

Unless I'm mistaken, if the seeds hold serve wouldn't we play the Grizz in the first round? From the way things have gone so far that's the matchup I want.

I don't know, the Grizzlies seem to be one of those teams over the last few years who, even when it looks like they're going to be an easy out in the playoffs, give whoever they play in the 1st round hell. Granted, this does appear to be the worst version of the "Grit n' Grind" Grizzlies, but if healthy their sort of "Big 3" of Gasol, Conley, and Randolph is still very formidable and they're still ideally built and suited for the playoffs. And now they have Mario Chalmers who, for whatever reasons, turns into an All-Star and sometimes superstar caliber PG when he plays the Thunder.

The thing with Memphis is, they're just a REALLY bad matchup for the Thunder right now. They can't punish Kanter on D enough, because their pick-and-roll game is just not strong, and they can't keep up with OKC on offense.

The swap of Kanter&Perkins is the true difference here. With Kanter, Memphis just can't plan their defensive schemes like they're used to. When you have the ability to completely ignore an opposing big without having to resort to small ball, that matchup would likely cause hell, and in the previous years it did.

Now, against teams like GSW this won't work, because they can use small ball to completely obliterate Kanter on D. OKC also does a poor job switching, and Memphis also does a poor job punishing does bad switches. They're just not equipped to beat the Thunder the way these teams are built.

As a Thunder fan I'm not afraid of any team sans GSW and Spurs. And I think with the way Spurs are playing this year, OKC is a good matchup for them as well.

Against GSW though? 300+ scores in REGULATION are possible there, and the only team who can keep up with the Thunder on offense while being MILES AHEAD defensively is GSW.

To sum it up, I'd love a Memphis matchup in the first round. I think even without HCA OKC stands a good chance against the Spurs. Against GSW, I can't see OKC winning even 2 games against them, let alone 4. Too many matchup problems.

Kanter played 22 minutes, shot 3/8, and was +8. Adams played 24 minutes and was +9, so It goes well beyond just being the Kanter/Perk swap, Memphis flat isn't as good anymore. They aren't athletic enough to keep up on defense and they can't shoot well enough to beat us on offense.

[spearsy23]

Of course putting Kanter on Cousins isn't the way to go, but I'm just saying defensive lapses aren't all on Kanter. Russell loses his man almost everytime he has to guard in a PnR and that puts us into a bad situation every time. That's worse than Kanter giving up 2-3 buckets per game.

I really don't understand why you're still hung up on Russ bring a bad defender. I'm not seeing it and
The stats don't back it up.

Oh, I see it very much. Russ still doesn't go over screen and mostly ends up standing behind the opposing player. And if that doesn't happen, he just switches, which isn''t always the way to go.
By him doing those things, our defense is already scrambling and in a suboptimal position. Now I'm not saying Russ is per se bad, but that really hurts our PnR coverage.

And yeah, the stats may not cover this, but that certainly does have something to do with the fact that Westbrook is out there with our best defenders at every position. You can switch an Ibaka to a guard and get away with it, but it's not always the way to go.

Confirmation bias. He gets beat sometimes, but that's life as an NBA point guard. In general he has been well beyond good this season.

[bondom34]

I really don't understand why you're still hung up on Russ bring a bad defender. I'm not seeing it and
The stats don't back it up.

Oh, I see it very much. Russ still doesn't go over screen and mostly ends up standing behind the opposing player. And if that doesn't happen, he just switches, which isn''t always the way to go.
By him doing those things, our defense is already scrambling and in a suboptimal position. Now I'm not saying Russ is per se bad, but that really hurts our PnR coverage.

And yeah, the stats may not cover this, but that certainly does have something to do with the fact that Westbrook is out there with our best defenders at every position. You can switch an Ibaka to a guard and get away with it, but it's not always the way to go.

Confirmation bias. He gets beat sometimes, but that's life as an NBA point guard. In general he has been well beyond good this season.

Yep, and here:

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9

393 minutes w/o Serge on court. 99.7 D rating.

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9#/opponent-level

111 without Adams or Serge, 92.6 D rating.

So whatever you're seeing isn't happening.

[TheBeardedMan]

Hey everybody! I'm a huge Oklahoma City Thunder fan and wanted some people I can talk to about them.

Kevin Durant & Russell Westbrook are my favorite players in the whole NBA. Been a big fan since they were in college and now their on the same team. I started becoming a fan of the Seattle Supersonics but for their bad luck they have been sold and relocated.

But that didn't stop me from loving my 2 favorite players and I promise to myself no matter where their going to be relocated to. I will always be their #1 fan

I'm a huge thunderstorm kinda guy. I love the sound of Thunder and seeing that awesome lightning. But when they decided on the name OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER. I knew from then that I've found my favorite team in the NBA.

Go Okc! It's time to bring some gold to Oklahoma!
#Thunderup

[bondom34]

Hey everybody! I'm a huge Oklahoma City Thunder fan and wanted some people I can talk to about them.

Kevin Durant & Russell Westbrook are my favorite players in the whole NBA. Been a big fan since they were in college and now their on the same team. I started becoming a fan of the Seattle Supersonics but for their bad luck they have been sold and relocated.

But that didn't stop me from loving my 2 favorite players and I promise to myself no matter where their going to be relocated to. I will always be their #1 fan

I'm a huge thunderstorm kinda guy. I love the sound of Thunder and seeing that awesome lightning. But when they decided on the name OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER. I knew from then that I've found my favorite team in the NBA.

Go Okc! It's time to bring some gold to Oklahoma!
#Thunderup

Welcome!

[KD35Brah]

I really want to see Billy give Huestis a strict chance. Tell him just to play defense and shoot 3s, maybe see what he looks like in the starting lineup sometime in the 3rd quarter.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCdXqf29buA[/youtube]

[getrichordie]

Comparing teams' depth by bench & starters.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/3zylq4/oc_comparing_teams_depth_by_bench_and_starters/

link to image: https://i.imgur.com/8mRwo5S.png

Thunder's bench isn't as bad as some think!

[getrichordie]

Don't hold your breath, but, look!

Kyle Singler's Per 36 (His last 5 games):

12.7 pts on 46/40/50 shooting splits and 3.2 assists but a +/- of -11.1 in 45 minutes

Improvement!

Also, he's looking much stronger and quicker than he did when the season started.

[getrichordie]

I really want to see Billy give Huestis a strict chance. Tell him just to play defense and shoot 3s, maybe see what he looks like in the starting lineup sometime in the 3rd quarter.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCdXqf29buA[/youtube]

Yeah, I definitely want to give Heustis a chance and see where he's at in his development. Tomorrow @ Lakers would be perfect to give some of our young guys run time. I think it would be cool to give them an opportunity to play against Kobe before he retires. Rest Durant and Westbrook and Serge tomorrow and let's give our rotation players some developmental experience.

[bondom34]

Also, the Grizz blog took quotes from here last night:

http://www.grizzlybearblues.com/2016/1/7/10732060/recapping-the-enemy-the-view-from-oklahoma-city

Their fans gave us props .

[spearsy23]

Gonna toot Bondom's horn a little here too, a few years ago there never would have been enough content for a blog to pull quotes from our game threads. Having an active mod who is invested has really helped drive traffic here. We still aren't many, but it does feel like this is actually a community now, and I enjoy hearing from you guys.

[Pillendreher]

Oh, I see it very much. Russ still doesn't go over screen and mostly ends up standing behind the opposing player. And if that doesn't happen, he just switches, which isn''t always the way to go.
By him doing those things, our defense is already scrambling and in a suboptimal position. Now I'm not saying Russ is per se bad, but that really hurts our PnR coverage.

And yeah, the stats may not cover this, but that certainly does have something to do with the fact that Westbrook is out there with our best defenders at every position. You can switch an Ibaka to a guard and get away with it, but it's not always the way to go.

Confirmation bias. He gets beat sometimes, but that's life as an NBA point guard. In general he has been well beyond good this season.

Yep, and here:

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9

393 minutes w/o Serge on court. 99.7 D rating.

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9#/opponent-level

111 without Adams or Serge, 92.6 D rating.

So whatever you're seeing isn't happening.

Agree to disagree

[KD35Brah]

Oh, I see it very much. Russ still doesn't go over screen and mostly ends up standing behind the opposing player. And if that doesn't happen, he just switches, which isn''t always the way to go.
By him doing those things, our defense is already scrambling and in a suboptimal position. Now I'm not saying Russ is per se bad, but that really hurts our PnR coverage.

And yeah, the stats may not cover this, but that certainly does have something to do with the fact that Westbrook is out there with our best defenders at every position. You can switch an Ibaka to a guard and get away with it, but it's not always the way to go.

Confirmation bias. He gets beat sometimes, but that's life as an NBA point guard. In general he has been well beyond good this season.

Yep, and here:

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9

393 minutes w/o Serge on court. 99.7 D rating.

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9#/opponent-level

111 without Adams or Serge, 92.6 D rating.

So whatever you're seeing isn't happening.

Is there a reason why he's the only one in the starting lineup with a positive Defensive Dashboard?

[bondom34]

Confirmation bias. He gets beat sometimes, but that's life as an NBA point guard. In general he has been well beyond good this season.

Yep, and here:

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9

393 minutes w/o Serge on court. 99.7 D rating.

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9#/opponent-level

111 without Adams or Serge, 92.6 D rating.

So whatever you're seeing isn't happening.

Is there a reason why he's the only one in the starting lineup with a positive Defensive Dashboard?

Because that's a pretty garbage stat.

http://www1.vantagesports.com/Articles/archive_article_view/Vg1ZYyMAALIAoMzK

So does Mike Conley, CP3, Danny Green, Tyson Chandler, Bismack Biyombo, Dwight, Koufos, Drummond, Thabo, and Jimmy Butler. Gonna toss it out there that its not a great measure of who's a good defender.

Oh, and 3rd best in the league is JJ Redick. Melo is 10th. Not awful defenders, but I think you get the point.

[bondom34]

Confirmation bias. He gets beat sometimes, but that's life as an NBA point guard. In general he has been well beyond good this season.

Yep, and here:

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9

393 minutes w/o Serge on court. 99.7 D rating.

http://nbawowy.com/kmw3nyq4dc5zh0k9#/opponent-level

111 without Adams or Serge, 92.6 D rating.

So whatever you're seeing isn't happening.

Agree to disagree

With every reliable measure of defense out there .

[Pillendreher]

Why don't we ask the PC board what they think about Westbrook's defense?

[KD35Brah]

Looking at some lineups, Augustin cancerous in a ton of them.

I really want to see the RUss, Roberson, KD, Ibaka, and Kanter lineup a little bit more as well.

[KD35Brah]

New Kanter article.

http://dailythunder.com/2016/01/the-progress-of-enes-kanter/

[bondom34]

Why don't we ask the PC board what they think about Westbrook's defense?

Go for it.