Brandon Knight's field goal percentage

[GMATCallahan]

'13-'14: .422

'14-'15: .422

'15-'16 (so far, though 37 games): .422

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/knighbr03.html

He needs to reduce his three-point volume, especially now that he is playing with the basketball more and supposedly operating as more of a point guard. Since arriving in Phoenix, he has shot .329 on threes in 6.2 attempts per game. He is not Stephen Curry ...

[bwgood77]

Yes, he probably needs to shoot fewer 3s, but yes, 42% overall on his volume is not good, and his 3% is not good, and hasn't been good for a couple of years. Also needs to cut out the long 2s. I don't mind the 3s as much as long 2s...at least the payoff is better. Either take it to the hoop or pass or possibly shoot if it while wide open at the line.

[kennydorglas]

I'm fine with his 3PA because he's better than .329
His super long 2's tho... he needs to get rid of this right away.

[toucansma]

I believe his shooting % will go up if he is not the primary ball handler. If Brandon Knight could get a little stronger , I could see him turning into a Jason Richardson type player (the version of Richardson when he was in SSOL and wasn't able to hold the ball indefinitely).

[GMATCallahan]

Yes, he probably needs to shoot fewer 3s, but yes, 42% overall on his volume is not good, and his 3% is not good, and hasn't been good for a couple of years. Also needs to cut out the long 2s. I don't mind the 3s as much as long 2s...at least the payoff is better. Either take it to the hoop or pass or possibly shoot if it while wide open at the line.

... yes, his penchant for shooting twenty-two-foot and twenty-three-foot two-point jumpers is problematic and something that I noticed last season soon after the trade. Early on this season, Knight seemed to have reduced those attempts, resulting in a spike in his two-point field goal percentage, but he now appears to have reverted to old tendencies, especially since he is now running the pick-and-roll more.

I would like to see him largely eliminate those shots and reduce his three-point volume by about fifty percent. Shooting about three per game—as he did tonight, when he shot 3-3—makes more sense to me. Be selective, look for clear looks, and otherwise exploit your quickness and athleticism and go to the hoop, especially since you are a very good free throw shooter.

[GMATCallahan]

I'm fine with his 3PA because he's better than .329
His super long 2's tho... he needs to get rid of this right away.

He is ... but perhaps only if he proves more selective and reduces his volume, at least a little. Given that Knight is one of the quicker guards in the league, he really does not need to shoot six three-pointers per game. And if he is serious about fancying himself as a point guard, he especially does not need to shoot six three-pointers per game. A real point guard does not do that, in part because once you choose to shoot the three, you curtail all creative possibilities inside the arc. Sure, Stephen Curry launches threes left and right, but he is not a true point guard—he is an anomaly and the best off-the-dribble shooter in NBA history. Guards like Brandon Knight are a dime-a-dozen in NBA history.

But both the threes and the long two-point attempts are an indication that he does not penetrate deeply enough; he settles too soon and too far away.

[bwgood77]

Yes, he probably needs to shoot fewer 3s, but yes, 42% overall on his volume is not good, and his 3% is not good, and hasn't been good for a couple of years. Also needs to cut out the long 2s. I don't mind the 3s as much as long 2s...at least the payoff is better. Either take it to the hoop or pass or possibly shoot if it while wide open at the line.

... yes, his penchant for shooting twenty-two-foot and twenty-three-foot two-point jumpers is problematic and something that I noticed last season soon after the trade. Early on this season, Knight seemed to have reduced those attempts, resulting in a spike in his two-point field goal percentage, but he now appears to have reverted to old tendencies, especially since he is now running the pick-and-roll more.

I would like to see him largely eliminate those shots and reduce his three-point volume by about fifty percent. Shooting about three per game—as he did tonight, when he shot 3-3—makes more sense to me. Be selective, look for clear looks, and otherwise exploit your quickness and athleticism and go to the hoop, especially since you are a very good free throw shooter.

Agreed, and if he gets short twos going, he might have more confidence in games and get going from 3 when he does shoot them, but with Booker, Warren, Leuer and Teletovic all shooting better from there, he simply doesn't need to.

[GMATCallahan]

Yes, he probably needs to shoot fewer 3s, but yes, 42% overall on his volume is not good, and his 3% is not good, and hasn't been good for a couple of years. Also needs to cut out the long 2s. I don't mind the 3s as much as long 2s...at least the payoff is better. Either take it to the hoop or pass or possibly shoot if it while wide open at the line.

... yes, his penchant for shooting twenty-two-foot and twenty-three-foot two-point jumpers is problematic and something that I noticed last season soon after the trade. Early on this season, Knight seemed to have reduced those attempts, resulting in a spike in his two-point field goal percentage, but he now appears to have reverted to old tendencies, especially since he is now running the pick-and-roll more.

I would like to see him largely eliminate those shots and reduce his three-point volume by about fifty percent. Shooting about three per game—as he did tonight, when he shot 3-3—makes more sense to me. Be selective, look for clear looks, and otherwise exploit your quickness and athleticism and go to the hoop, especially since you are a very good free throw shooter.

Agreed, and if he gets short twos going, he might have more confidence in games and get going from 3 when he does shoot them, but with Booker, Warren, Leuer and Teletovic all shooting better from there, he simply doesn't need to.

... reminds me of one of the reasons why Kevin Johnson stated, in 1997 (when he finished third in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage behind only Glen Rice and Steve Kerr), why he had not shot threes earlier in his career (prior to the '95-'96 season, he never averaged more than 0.59 attempts per game and never more than 1.0 until '96-'97). He stated that the Suns had possessed other players who shot threes—Eddie Johnson, Jeff Hornacek, Dan Majerle, Danny Ainge—and he did not want to risk compromising that team strength. But in the '95-'96 season, and for a substantial part of the '96-'97 season, the only real three-point shooter on Phoenix's active roster, playing major minutes, was Wesley Person, so K.J. developed more of an incentive to add the shot to his arsenal.

Of course, Knight cannot shoot off the dribble from twenty-one or twenty-two feet as well as K.J., nor can he go to his left anywhere near as well as K.J., nor does he possess K.J.'s physical strength and ability to reach the free throw line at a high rate, so he should not abandon the three. But just because you can shoot a shot does not mean that you should shoot that shot, and there is a difference between creating a shot and creating a good shot. Another poster referenced Jason Richardson, and he constituted a classic example of a player who did not seem to know the difference—or care about the difference—between creating a shot and creating a good shot. Knight possesses a significantly better handle than Richardson, so he can certainly explore more rather than settling.

[bwgood77]

... yes, his penchant for shooting twenty-two-foot and twenty-three-foot two-point jumpers is problematic and something that I noticed last season soon after the trade. Early on this season, Knight seemed to have reduced those attempts, resulting in a spike in his two-point field goal percentage, but he now appears to have reverted to old tendencies, especially since he is now running the pick-and-roll more.

I would like to see him largely eliminate those shots and reduce his three-point volume by about fifty percent. Shooting about three per game—as he did tonight, when he shot 3-3—makes more sense to me. Be selective, look for clear looks, and otherwise exploit your quickness and athleticism and go to the hoop, especially since you are a very good free throw shooter.

Agreed, and if he gets short twos going, he might have more confidence in games and get going from 3 when he does shoot them, but with Booker, Warren, Leuer and Teletovic all shooting better from there, he simply doesn't need to.

... reminds me of one of the reasons why Kevin Johnson stated, in 1997 (when he finished third in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage behind only Glen Rice and Steve Kerr), why he had not shot threes earlier in his career (prior to the '95-'96 season, he never averaged more than 0.59 attempts per game and never more than 1.0 until '96-'97). He stated that the Suns had possessed other players who shot threes—Eddie Johnson, Jeff Hornacek, Dan Majerle, Danny Ainge—and he did not want to risk compromising that team strength. But in the '95-'96 season, and for a substantial part of the '96-'97 season, the only real three-point shooter on Phoenix's active roster, playing major minutes, was Wesley Person, so K.J. developed more of an incentive to add the shot to his arsenal.

Of course, Knight cannot shoot off the dribble from twenty-one or twenty-two feet as well as K.J., nor can he go to his left anywhere near as well as K.J., nor does he possess K.J.'s physical strength and ability to reach the free throw line at a high rate, so he should not abandon the three. But just because you can shoot a shot does not mean that you should shoot that shot, and there is a difference between creating a shot and creating a good shot. Another poster referenced Jason Richardson, and he constituted a classic example of a player who did not seem to know the difference—or care about the difference—between creating a shot and creating a good shot. Knight possesses a significantly better handle than Richardson, so he can certainly explore more rather than settling.

Oh how I wish Knight could read that post. Or even Hornacek and post it in the locker room or something.

[DRK]

Knight may be quick enough to blow by his man, and he may have a good enough handle to get past his man to the hoop, but hes a notoriously bad finisher at the rim...

[GMATCallahan]

Knight may be quick enough to blow by his man, and he may have a good enough handle to get past his man to the hoop, but hes a notoriously bad finisher at the rim...

... not his strength, but he might as well try to improve at it, especially given his percentage on threes and long two-point jumpers. Plus, when you penetrate with some depth, options proliferate: you can reach the free throw line, distort or collapse the defense to find open teammates, shoot runners, pull up for mid-range or short jumpers, and even create prime offensive rebounding opportunities should you miss at the basket.

[RunDogGun]

You have to wonder if not getting to the line causes our established guards to shoot deeper shots. He also doesn't shoot his shots in rhythm, which is also a problem for many of our guys, but some of that has to do with passing, and timing of that pass.

[MrMiyagi]

Knight may be quick enough to blow by his man, and he may have a good enough handle to get past his man to the hoop, but hes a notoriously bad finisher at the rim...

Actually, Brandon Knight shoots 48% on Drives (defined as any possession beginning outside 20ft and is dribbled within 10 feet of the basket exluding fastbreaks) according to Sport VU on 3.7 attempts per game. So I don't think you can say he's been a bad finisher.

He's also shooting 38% on catch and shoot 3s on 2.8 attemps per game.

Now, pull-up shots are what kill him. He shoots 29% on pull-up 3s and 36% on all pull up field goals on 8.1 attempts per game.

[Mulhollanddrive]

No room for dumb players like Beasley, Morris, Knight.

Their go to shot is a 18 footer, and unless you're one of the best 10 players in history at it, you'll be average to bad.

[TASTIC]

No room for dumb players like Beasley, Morris, Knight.

Their go to shot is a 18 footer, and unless you're one of the best 10 players in history at it, you'll be average to bad.

Knight is actually incredibly smart OFF the court, but I agree when he's on the court his bball IQ is awful.

[Leapinlarry22]

... yes, his penchant for shooting twenty-two-foot and twenty-three-foot two-point jumpers is problematic and something that I noticed last season soon after the trade. Early on this season, Knight seemed to have reduced those attempts, resulting in a spike in his two-point field goal percentage, but he now appears to have reverted to old tendencies, especially since he is now running the pick-and-roll more.

I would like to see him largely eliminate those shots and reduce his three-point volume by about fifty percent. Shooting about three per game—as he did tonight, when he shot 3-3—makes more sense to me. Be selective, look for clear looks, and otherwise exploit your quickness and athleticism and go to the hoop, especially since you are a very good free throw shooter.

Agreed, and if he gets short twos going, he might have more confidence in games and get going from 3 when he does shoot them, but with Booker, Warren, Leuer and Teletovic all shooting better from there, he simply doesn't need to.

... reminds me of one of the reasons why Kevin Johnson stated, in 1997 (when he finished third in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage behind only Glen Rice and Steve Kerr), why he had not shot threes earlier in his career (prior to the '95-'96 season, he never averaged more than 0.59 attempts per game and never more than 1.0 until '96-'97). He stated that the Suns had possessed other players who shot threes—Eddie Johnson, Jeff Hornacek, Dan Majerle, Danny Ainge—and he did not want to risk compromising that team strength. But in the '95-'96 season, and for a substantial part of the '96-'97 season, the only real three-point shooter on Phoenix's active roster, playing major minutes, was Wesley Person, so K.J. developed more of an incentive to add the shot to his arsenal.

Of course, Knight cannot shoot off the dribble from twenty-one or twenty-two feet as well as K.J., nor can he go to his left anywhere near as well as K.J., nor does he possess K.J.'s physical strength and ability to reach the free throw line at a high rate, so he should not abandon the three. But just because you can shoot a shot does not mean that you should shoot that shot, and there is a difference between creating a shot and creating a good shot. Another poster referenced Jason Richardson, and he constituted a classic example of a player who did not seem to know the difference—or care about the difference—between creating a shot and creating a good shot. Knight possesses a significantly better handle than Richardson, so he can certainly explore more rather than settling.

I think a better comparison for Brandon Knight is Leandro Barbosa. Leandro was not a great passer, was very quick and was not that strong to start his career. he also didn't shoot three pointers very well early on. Leandro became a great sixth man because he could relentlessly attack the rim in the open court, that also allowed him to become a great three-point shooter mostly in transition and mostly wide-open shots. He like Brandon Knight struggled to shoot off the dribble from the three-point line.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM ForumsI think a better comparison to Brandon's game would be Leandra Barbosa

[Leapinlarry22]

Knight may be quick enough to blow by his man, and he may have a good enough handle to get past his man to the hoop, but hes a notoriously bad finisher at the rim...

Actually, Brandon Knight shoots 48% on Drives (defined as any possession beginning outside 20ft and is dribbled within 10 feet of the basket exluding fastbreaks) according to Sport VU on 3.7 attempts per game. So I don't think you can say he's been a bad finisher.

He's also shooting 38% on catch and shoot 3s on 2.8 attemps per game.

Now, pull-up shots are what kill him. He shoots 29% on pull-up 3s and 36% on all pull up field goals on 8.1 attempts per game.

These numbers suggest quality two guard, bad point guard/created. If he could work on finishing in traffic better at the rim and midrange pull ups, he could be a high quality offensive player particularly as a sixth man


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[saintEscaton]

Its almost as if this piece was directed at BK. Its all about marginal opportunity cost and the usage vs efficiency tradeoff. There is a diminishing return to scoring beyond a certain threshold of volume. He needs to realize how he is prematurely ending possessions by forcing up lower percentage shots early. His bricks are bad but what is more harmful is him depriving teammates from getting better looks

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/01/08/freelance-friday-optimal-basketball-theory/

"The principle of dynamic efficiency concerns the optimal time to shoot, given a dwindling shot clock and uncertainty about future opportunities. It says that a shot should be taken only when its expected number of points scored exceeds the expected return of the remainder of the possession.
An example:
With 16 seconds left on the shot clock, a player should probably pass up the opportunity to take a weakly-contested long 2. Such a shot scores less than one point on average (depending on who’s shooting it), while a live possession with 16 seconds left is worth more than one point on average.

But if the possession continues to the point where there are only 3 seconds left, and if the chance for a weakly-contested long 2 reappears, the player should probably take the shot."

[GMATCallahan]

Agreed, and if he gets short twos going, he might have more confidence in games and get going from 3 when he does shoot them, but with Booker, Warren, Leuer and Teletovic all shooting better from there, he simply doesn't need to.

... reminds me of one of the reasons why Kevin Johnson stated, in 1997 (when he finished third in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage behind only Glen Rice and Steve Kerr), why he had not shot threes earlier in his career (prior to the '95-'96 season, he never averaged more than 0.59 attempts per game and never more than 1.0 until '96-'97). He stated that the Suns had possessed other players who shot threes—Eddie Johnson, Jeff Hornacek, Dan Majerle, Danny Ainge—and he did not want to risk compromising that team strength. But in the '95-'96 season, and for a substantial part of the '96-'97 season, the only real three-point shooter on Phoenix's active roster, playing major minutes, was Wesley Person, so K.J. developed more of an incentive to add the shot to his arsenal.

Of course, Knight cannot shoot off the dribble from twenty-one or twenty-two feet as well as K.J., nor can he go to his left anywhere near as well as K.J., nor does he possess K.J.'s physical strength and ability to reach the free throw line at a high rate, so he should not abandon the three. But just because you can shoot a shot does not mean that you should shoot that shot, and there is a difference between creating a shot and creating a good shot. Another poster referenced Jason Richardson, and he constituted a classic example of a player who did not seem to know the difference—or care about the difference—between creating a shot and creating a good shot. Knight possesses a significantly better handle than Richardson, so he can certainly explore more rather than settling.

I think a better comparison for Brandon Knight is Leandro Barbosa. Leandro was not a great passer, was very quick and was not that strong to start his career. he also didn't shoot three pointers very well early on. Leandro became a great sixth man because he could relentlessly attack the rim in the open court, that also allowed him to become a great three-point shooter mostly in transition and mostly wide-open shots. He like Brandon Knight struggled to shoot off the dribble from the three-point line.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM ForumsI think a better comparison to Brandon's game would be Leandra Barbosa

Well, I was not analogizing Knight's game to Kevin Johnson's—I was actually contrasting the difference in their mentalities or approaches and suggesting how Knight could discipline his game. Or perhaps you were referring to the point about Jason Richardson? I do not feel that Knight is that similar to Richardson, either, but they both suffer from the tendency to settle for low-percentage long jump-shots when they attempt to create their own offense.

As for Barbosa, there are some similarities, but I would not consider his game that analogous to Knight's, either. Barbosa actually established himself as a dangerous and efficient three-point shooter right away—he shot .395 on threes in 3.0 attempts per game as a rookie in '03-'04, before Nash arrived. He did not handle the ball as well as Knight, but he was even faster and quicker and much better at crossing over and going left. They are similarly vulnerable defensively, and they are similar in the sense that they could both occasionally make some really good passes, yet they lacked the consistency and mentality needed to thrive at point guard. However, Knight does look to pass more than Barbosa and averages more assists—but also more turnovers—as a result. Also, Barbosa would cut along the baseline without the ball in transition, something that you do not see much of from Knight.

Like Barbosa, Knight could ultimately thrive as a Sixth Man, but that role would require him to play with the basketball more and shoot more pull-up jumpers. The key with Barbosa was that he did not fancy himself as a point guard—he just attacked, whether in terms of straight line drives to the hoop, especially from the baseline sides off transition ball-screens or brush-screens (or just on his own before the defense had gotten back), or shooting the three as soon as he had the opening. That approach limited the ways in which he could impact the game, but it also rendered him highly efficient and ruthlessly effective at what he did well—so long as the game proved up-tempo. Over his first six seasons in Phoenix, from '03-'04 through '08-'09, Barbosa posted a .582 True Shooting Percentage. Conversely, Knight's True Shooting Percentage this season is .526, and for his career it is .523. He is also in his fifth season, so he is not an inexperienced player per se (in terms of the regular season, anyway).

[GMATCallahan]

Its almost as if this piece was directed at BK. Its all about marginal opportunity cost and the usage vs efficiency tradeoff. There is a diminishing return to scoring beyond a certain threshold of volume. He needs to realize how he is prematurely ending possessions by forcing up lower percentage shots early. His bricks are bad but what is more harmful is him depriving teammates from getting better looks

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/01/08/freelance-friday-optimal-basketball-theory/

"The principle of dynamic efficiency concerns the optimal time to shoot, given a dwindling shot clock and uncertainty about future opportunities. It says that a shot should be taken only when its expected number of points scored exceeds the expected return of the remainder of the possession.
An example:
With 16 seconds left on the shot clock, a player should probably pass up the opportunity to take a weakly-contested long 2. Such a shot scores less than one point on average (depending on who’s shooting it), while a live possession with 16 seconds left is worth more than one point on average.

But if the possession continues to the point where there are only 3 seconds left, and if the chance for a weakly-contested long 2 reappears, the player should probably take the shot."

... all of which means ...

A) He plays with the mentality of a shooting guard more than a point guard.

B) He considers himself to be better than is actually the case.

C) His discernment and judgment leave much to be desired.

Of course, the kinds of principles described in the article are generic rules of thumb that can be adjusted based on the skill-level of the player. But again, Brandon Knight is not Stephen Curry and his overall level of skill is pretty pedestrian, so he should generally follow the generic principles.