1st round pick 2016

[Patrick1978]

Has anyone an idea or rumour which way henny intends to go with our first round pick?

[claudio-br]

i think it's waaaay too early to think about that.... i mean, this pick could be traded before the deadline - even though it's not that likely



edit.: the FO is certainly doing its scouting, but we cant predict now what they will do with that pick

[King Close]

Henny is to secretive about any, and everything. Can't imagine this being any different. If there are any rumors, they're most-likely made up for clicks.

[MagicManDC]

I hope we package some pieces and players. Consolidate talent.

[the_hobo]

Don't need it, get rid of it

[j-ragg]

lol we didn't know which way he was leaning the last 3 years even up to the night before the draft.

[Orlwillbeback]

well, he said he was gonna keep tobias and he did.

[drsd]

I hope we package some pieces and players. Consolidate talent.

I think Coach Skiles has proven a core. This makes it easier for GM Hennigan to see what pieces are missing and assess the immediate and medium term.

Payton, Harris and Vučević are the only core players. Orlando needs a new starting PF. Gordon and Hezonja are great prospects but are not-untradeable. Either Fournier or Oladipo: flexibility at SG.

To come to your point, there are loads of packages Orlando can assemble to reduce depth to increase talent. Frankly only Boston has a better prospect of upgrading talent through an assets trade. Orlando is in a great position. GM Hennigan did his job, and there now looks to be only one more step to take.

Here is hoping LAL falls out of the top-3 to even further help Orlando's asset pool!



..

[Magic_Johnny12]

I feel as we can't shop our pick until we really know what we have, for all we know our bad play could continue and we can possibly be looking at a pick in the 10 - 12 range and with Henny's eye for talent I wouldn't trade that unless we are getting a sure contributor in return.

It only takes one player to drop in the draft and one team to be in love with him (for ex. Boston offering 4 picks for Winslow)

Henny will be patient as he always is and make the right move when it presents itself.

[OrlandoDream]

Dont be surprised if we trade the pick or package for an established player.

[NBlue]

Payton, Harris and Vučević are the only core players. Orlando needs a new starting PF. Gordon and Hezonja are great prospects but are not-untradeable. Either Fournier or Oladipo: flexibility at SG.

..

I think you are significantly out on a limb there. I find it hard to see why we would be any more likely to trade AG or Marion as opposed to the 3 you define as the "core". In fact, of all of those players you mentioned I believe Harris to be the asset most likely to be traded though I would not advocate that action. Unless presented with some type of "can't say no" offer, a GM who trades his signature drafts (#4 and/or #5) in back to back years is basically admitting his mistake in the draft AND signing his eventual death warrant.

Of all our players I would actually consider Mario and AG as the least likely to be drafted for just that reason in addition to their youth and development. If we valued them on draft day why on earth would we trade them before we determine what they become. Such a trade makes little sense unless it allows for superstar value in return. Hard to see that happening.

[ezzzp]

I imagine RH wants to trade the pick.

The majority of NBA players have a sharp upward development trajectory until about 25-26, then it pretty quickly begins to level off. There is a light upward gradual development through 30-31 but then a sharp downward decline begins.

If you look at the way RH has assembled the roster, you can see he has a stockpile of youth all at varying stages of early development; and three fully developed players that are at the cliff of their decline. Notice the gap in players within prime years and the potential loss in free agency of the ones that are:

20: Gordon, Hezonja
21: Payton
22: None
23: Fournier, Oladipo and Harris
24: Napier
25: Vucevic
26: Nicholson (RFA) and Dedmon (RFA)
27: None
28: None
29: Smith (UFA)
30: None
31: Watson and Frye

Because of this, I feel RH has to address that void in the makeup of the roster, and using next year's draft pick would be the best way to stagger the influx of youth and hopefully convert it to a player in their prime.

[OrlChamps2030]

I imagine RH wants to trade the pick.

The majority of NBA players have a sharp upward development trajectory until about 25-26, then it pretty quickly begins to level off. There is a light upward gradual development through 30-31 but then a sharp downward decline begins.

If you look at the way RH has assembled the roster, you can see he has a stockpile of youth all at varying stages of early development; and three fully developed players that are at the cliff of their decline. Notice the gap in players within prime years and the potential loss in free agency of the ones that are:

20: Gordon, Hezonja
21: Payton
22: None
23: Fournier, Oladipo and Harris
24: Napier
25: Vucevic
26: Nicholson (RFA) and Dedmon (RFA)
27: None
28: None
29: Smith (UFA)
30: None
31: Watson and Frye

Because of this, I feel RH has to address that void in the makeup of the roster, and using next year's draft pick would be the best way to stagger the influx of youth and hopefully convert it to a player in their prime.

Do you envision RH trading the pick before the deadline? What kind of "prime" players do you think will be targeted?

[Skin]

I imagine RH wants to trade the pick.

The majority of NBA players have a sharp upward development trajectory until about 25-26, then it pretty quickly begins to level off. There is a light upward gradual development through 30-31 but then a sharp downward decline begins.

If you look at the way RH has assembled the roster, you can see he has a stockpile of youth all at varying stages of early development; and three fully developed players that are at the cliff of their decline. Notice the gap in players within prime years and the potential loss in free agency of the ones that are:

20: Gordon, Hezonja
21: Payton
22: None
23: Fournier, Oladipo and Harris
24: Napier
25: Vucevic
26: Nicholson (RFA) and Dedmon (RFA)
27: None
28: None
29: Smith (UFA)
30: None
31: Watson and Frye

Because of this, I feel RH has to address that void in the makeup of the roster, and using next year's draft pick would be the best way to stagger the influx of youth and hopefully convert it to a player in their prime.

This is a much better study based on age, rather than based on "years in the league" that you stated earlier about players growth generally halting after 3 years into the league.

I'm ok trading the pick too because the draft is weak at the positions of need for us and based on us being a late lottery pick. If they wanna protect it Top 5-7 before they trade it, then great.

Doesn't have to be someone in their prime either. Bring me Bobby Portis.

[Bensational]

With all the talk of Orlando pushing for a D-League team, I don't think Henny is going to be looking to trade cheap young players away. If he doesn't see room for them, I think he'll take a high risk/high reward swing for a stash-away Euro pick or someone he can put in the D-League for a full season to develop.

Either that or he'll consider a Senior big man (C/PF) who might be able to contribute a bit sooner and replace a potential loss of Dedmon/Nicholson.

If we need to trade to fill gaps in the roster, he's got an abundance of tier 3 players with quality prospects waiting on the bench right behind them.

[ezzzp]

I imagine RH wants to trade the pick.

The majority of NBA players have a sharp upward development trajectory until about 25-26, then it pretty quickly begins to level off. There is a light upward gradual development through 30-31 but then a sharp downward decline begins.

If you look at the way RH has assembled the roster, you can see he has a stockpile of youth all at varying stages of early development; and three fully developed players that are at the cliff of their decline. Notice the gap in players within prime years and the potential loss in free agency of the ones that are:

20: Gordon, Hezonja
21: Payton
22: None
23: Fournier, Oladipo and Harris
24: Napier
25: Vucevic
26: Nicholson (RFA) and Dedmon (RFA)
27: None
28: None
29: Smith (UFA)
30: None
31: Watson and Frye

Because of this, I feel RH has to address that void in the makeup of the roster, and using next year's draft pick would be the best way to stagger the influx of youth and hopefully convert it to a player in their prime.

This is a much better study based on age, rather than based on "years in the league" that you stated earlier about players growth generally halting after 3 years into the league.

I'm ok trading the pick too because the draft is weak at the positions of need for us and based on us being a late lottery pick. If they wanna protect it Top 5-7 before they trade it, then great.

Doesn't have to be someone in their prime either. Bring me Bobby Portis.

I have never said that player's growth stops at 3 years - ever. In fact I have been steadfastly saying the exact opposite, and regularly respond with stats and comments related to the very young age of the Magic core and how they are years away from hitting their prime.

I think what you are confusing is the stat chart I referenced that suggested that most players reach their shooting efficiency range by the end of year three. It showed that there are occasional outliers, but the majority of players - getting x minutes - remain close to that range at that point. Like I said at the time, that wasn't my concept, just some stat chart someone posted on the RealGM statistical analyses thread a while back.

[fklt]

If he doesn't see room for them, I think he'll take a high risk/high reward swing for a stash-away Euro pick or someone he can put in the D-League for a full season to develop.

I also believe that trading the pick makes sense as we don't need youth and don't have spare time for youth right now. but if we don't, high risk/high reward stash away Euro pick makes the most sense.

they have usually bigger bang for the buck, because most teams who wants immediate results do not go for them. it's not glorious to wait 2 years for the new and shiny exciting youth, so fans hate them. but teams like SAS do this all the time.
not having the need to scrape minutes for their development, as they will be playing competitively already, is a big win in our case.