DeAndre Jordan... Clutch Free Throw Shooter?!

[Wammy Giveaway]

DeAndre Jordan is one of the worst free throw shooters in NBA history - we get that. In his career, he is shooting 41.7% at the stripe. Last season, he only made 39.7% of his free throws. His career worst is 37.5% in the 2009-10 season, but he only started 12 of his 82 games. He didn't become a full time starter until the lockout season. In respect to this, his 0.397 free throw percentage marks his second worst of his four seasons as a permanent starter.

As a bad free throw shooter, opposing coaches will purposely employ the Hack-A-Shaq on him. As I explained in another post, the Hack-A-Shaq in theory is supposed to force misses, stall time, and get quick looks at drives, 3-point shots, or drawing fouls for free throws using their best free throw shooters. On the contrary, the Hack-A-Shaq has only worked against the teams employing the strategy - yet Doc clearly refuses to take DeAndre out. According to Business Insider writer Cork Gaines, the Clippers are now 14-0 when DeAndre takes at least 15 free throws, Hack-A-Shaq or no Hack-A-Shaq. If you even deploy the strategy at least once, the Clippers could automatically win that game. Or do they...

Despite shooting such horrid numbers at the free throw line, there is a glimmer of hope. Turns out that whenever the Clippers are in a pressure-tight situation and DeAndre is tasked to make free throws, intentional or otherwise, he'll makes them.

It's back to Basketball-Reference for some in-depth research. Here are the filters:

1. 4th quarter and overtime. I chose the 4th quarter because of the two minute mark. More on this later.
2. 6 point score cover: when the Clippers are behind by no less than 3 PTS, tied, or above by no more than 3 PTS.
3. All games into account. There's regular season, and there's playoffs. An asterisk denotes a playoff game.

The time frame for this research is from 2013-2015, when Doc Rivers took over as coach.

First, when the Clippers are in the lead, no more than 3 PTS:

Code: Select all

2013-14
11/1/2013   SAC   4th   02:39.0   LAC up 3 (100-97)    Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 4 (101-97)    Win

11/6/2013   ORL   4th   07:38.0   LAC up 1 (79-78)     Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 2 (80-78)
11/6/2013   ORL   4th   07:38.0   LAC up 2 (80-78)     Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 2 (80-78)     Loss

11/16/2013  BRK   4th   04:25.0   LAC up 2 (92-90)     Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 3 (93-90)
11/16/2013  BRK   4th   04:25.0   LAC up 3 (93-90)     Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 3 (93-90)     Win

11/29/2013  SAC   4th   02:16.0   LAC up 3 (92-89)     Miss free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 3 (92-89)
11/29/2013  SAC   4th   02:16.0   LAC up 3 (92-89)     Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 3 (92-89)     Win

1/15/2014   DAL   4th   00:03.0   LAC up 1 (128-127)   Miss free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 1 (128-127)
1/15/2014   DAL   4th   00:03.0   LAC up 1 (128-127)   Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 2 (129-127)   Win

1/29/2014   WAS   4th   02:21.0   LAC up 3 (102-99)    Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 4 (103-99)    Win

2/23/2014   OKC   4th   06:40.0   LAC up 1 (105-104)   Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 2 (106-104)
2/23/2014   OKC   4th   06:40.0   LAC up 2 (106-104)   Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 3 (107-104)   Win

2014-15
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   06:52.0   LAC up 2 (101-99)    Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 3 (102-99)
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   06:52.0   LAC up 3 (102-99)    Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 3 (102-99)
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   06:03.0   LAC up 2 (103-101)   Miss free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 2 (103-101)
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   06:03.0   LAC up 2 (103-101)   Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 2 (103-101)
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   05:46.0   LAC up 2 (103-101)   Miss free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 2 (103-101)
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   05:46.0   LAC up 2 (103-101)   Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 3 (104-101)
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   05:24.0   LAC up 3 (104-101)   Miss free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 3 (104-101)
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   05:24.0   LAC up 3 (104-101)   Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 3 (104-101)
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   04:53.0   LAC up 3 (104-101)   Miss free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 3 (104-101)
2/19/2015   SAS   4th   04:53.0   LAC up 3 (104-101)   Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 4 (105-101)   Win

3/1/2015    CHI   4th   04:05.0   LAC up 3 (83-80)     Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 4 (84-80)     Win

3/2/2015    MIN   4th   02:13.0   LAC up 3 (102-99)    Miss free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 3 (102-99)
3/2/2015    MIN   4th   02:13.0   LAC up 3 (102-99)    Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 3 (102-99)    Win

3/17/2015   CHO   4th   02:50.0   LAC up 3 (93-90)     Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC up 4 (94-90)     Win

4/11/2015   MEM   4th   07:01.0   LAC up 1 (76-75)     Made free throw 1 of 1   LAC up 2 (77-75)     Win

Record: 11-1
FTA: 13-27 (0.481)

Second, when the Clippers are tied:

Code: Select all

2013-14
11/29/2013  SAC   OT    02:40.0   LAC tied (98-98)     Miss free throw 1 of 1   LAC tied (98-98)     Win

2/12/2014   POR   4th   03:26.0   LAC tied (113-113)   Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC up 1 (114-113)   Win

Record: 2-0 (Small sample size)
FTA: 1-1 (0.500)

Lastly, when the Clippers are behind by no more than 3:

Code: Select all

2013-14

11/6/2013   ORL   4th   00:26.0   LAC down 3 (89-92)   Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC down 2 (90-92)
11/6/2013   ORL   4th   00:26.0   LAC down 2 (90-92)   Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 2 (90-92)   Loss

11/23/2013  SAC   4th   06:01.0   LAC down 1 (84-85)   Made free throw 1 of 1   LAC tied (85-85)     Win

12/25/2013  GSW   4th   04:06.0   LAC down 2 (94-96)   Miss free throw 1 of 2   LAC down 2 (94-96)
12/25/2013  GSW   4th   04:06.0   LAC down 2 (94-96)   Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 1 (95-96)   Loss

1/3/2014    DAL   4th   03:08.0   LAC down 3 (107-110) Made free throw 1 of 1   LAC down 2 (108-110) Win

2/3/2014    DEN   4th   08:51.0   LAC down 3 (88-91)   Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC down 2 (89-91)
2/3/2014    DEN   4th   08:51.0   LAC down 2 (89-91)   Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 1 (90-91)
2/3/2014    DEN   4th   01:51.0   LAC down 2 (107-109) Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC down 1 (108-109)
2/3/2014    DEN   4th   01:51.0   LAC down 1 (108-109) Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC tied (109-109)   Loss

2/5/2014    MIA   4th   04:31.0   LAC down 3 (98-101)  Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 2 (99-101)  Loss

2/12/2014   POR   4th   03:26.0   LAC down 1 (112-113) Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC tied (113-113)   Win

4/19/2014*  GSW   4th   03:04.0   LAC down 3 (97-100)  Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC down 2 (98-100)
4/19/2014*  GSW   4th   03:04.0   LAC down 2 (98-100)  Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 1 (99-100)  Loss

2014-15

12/17/2014  IND   4th   05:20.0   LAC down 3 (90-93)   Made free throw 1 of 1   LAC down 2 (91-93)
12/17/2014  IND   4th   03:34.0   LAC down 1 (92-93)   Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC tied (93-93)     Win

3/31/2015   GSW   4th   01:26.0   LAC down 3 (100-103) Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC down 2 (101-103)
3/31/2015   GSW   4th   01:26.0   LAC down 2 (101-103) Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 1 (102-103) Loss

4/13/2015   DEN   4th   02:49.0   LAC down 1 (96-97)   Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC tied (97-97)     Win

4/22/2015*  SAS   4th   04:01.0   LAC down 3 (85-88)   Made free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 2 (86-88)
4/22/2015*  SAS   4th   03:17.0   LAC down 3 (87-90)   Made free throw 1 of 2   LAC down 2 (88-90)
4/22/2015*  SAS   4th   03:17.0   LAC down 2 (88-90)   Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 2 (88-90)
4/22/2015*  SAS   4th   02:50.0   LAC down 2 (88-90)   Miss free throw 1 of 2   LAC down 2 (88-90)
4/22/2015*  SAS   4th   02:50.0   LAC down 2 (88-90)   Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 2 (88-90)   Loss

5/2/2015*   SAS   4th   05:58.0   LAC down 3 (92-95)   Miss free throw 2 of 2   LAC down 3 (92-95)   Win

Record: 6-7
FTA: 19-25 (0.760)

Notes:
1. DeAndre Jordan may secretly be a clutch free throw shooter. He misses free throws a lot supposedly because the game is not on the line yet. But whenever the game gets too close for comfort, with the margins I applied, when the free throws do determine a win or a loss, he makes them. In theory, the Clippers should be winning games under this method, but instead, they have a losing record: 6-7, three of them from playoff games.

2. The first 10 minutes into the 4th quarter, opponents can force DeAndre Jordan to the line, pray for misses, then score to close the gap, or assume the lead. Once the two minute warning is announced, all off-ball fouls come with a technical foul and automatic made free throw by their best free throw shooter. Between the three and two minute marks is where DeAndre falters a little bit. One minute left to go, the Hack-A-Shaq nightmare is almost over with, you want the game to be over so bad, it hampers your focus. Enough to the point he actually misses shots. In the last minute of legal Hack-A-Shaqs in the 4th quarter only, he is 5-12 from the line (0.417). And yet Doc leaves him out there because he is so glued to the perfect 14-0 stat. Records are meant to be broken.

3. Small sample size alert: Hack-A-Shaq serves a bigger purpose in the playoffs than in the regular season. The combined record of wins and losses in the regular season is 16-5, making 41 out of 48 in those 21 games. In the playoffs, Jordan makes exactly what everybody wanted him to make: 50-50, or 4-8 from the line. But the Clippers have a 1-2 losing record when Jordan is tasked to free throws in the postseason.

What does all this say about Hack-A-Shaq, if anything? After having seen these stats, are you willing to allow this strategy to continue, even if it means the game gets boring? What's more important: wins or entertainment?

[BlzMwt]

Notes:
1. DeAndre Jordan may secretly be a clutch free throw shooter. He misses free throws a lot supposedly because the game is not on the line yet. But whenever the game gets too close for comfort, with the margins I applied, when the free throws do determine a win or a loss, he makes them. In theory, the Clippers should be winning games under this method, but instead, they have a losing record: 6-7, three of them from playoff games.

it's probably a secret to him as well

[madmaxmedia]

At the end of the day, if we are 14-0 when he takes 15+ free throws, then everything else goes out the window. Let them hack him. I'm assuming that intentional fouling was done in a majority of those 14 games, since DeAndre otherwise isn't going to normally take that many FT's over the course of a game. That playoff record does make me wonder though. I don't think Doc keeps him in because of the 14-0 record, but more as a show of confidence in DJ- not only in his belief that DJ can make (some) FT's but of his importance to the team at both ends of the court.

I don't know if DeAndre is secretly a clutch FT shooter, but hey if his FT% in clutch situations gets a bit closer to 50% then it's that much better for us.I can imagine him maybe focusing a little better, although that can hurt players too, it just depends.

When an opposing team starts intentionally fouling, they end up with very few transition opportunities for easier baskets. I think the main reason we have a great record when he shoots a lot of FT, is it slows the opposing offense down (as long as DeAndre is making just a reasonable amount of free throws by his standards.) There are also a couple of other potential mitigating factors. It gives Blake and CP3 rest, who are disproportionately important to the team. Also, there was a 538 article that mentioned the Clippers have a better-than-average offensive rebound % off free throw misses. Whether that holds out over the long run I don't know, but if say Blake gets a rebound around the basket off a missed FT, you know what's happening next- a high percentage shot opportunity.

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/FlyByKnite/status/688202607379136512[/tweet]

[nickhx2]

jvg is making a dumb comment but is 52% really something to defend DJ on? lol

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TheVertical/status/753023015760330752[/tweet]

[og15]

He should go work with Rick Barry to perfect his underhand

[mkwest]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3ayTzyVjDQ[/youtube]

Working with Bob Thate (who happens to be in a neck brace) and trying some right-handers as well.

[nickhx2]

quite pleased that he's finally working with thate. his mechanics looked a bit shaky the first few shots before he was corrected. i like that he has smoother body movement now with softer hands and arms as well.

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/tomhaberstroh/status/756177193001226240[/tweet][tweet]https://twitter.com/DanWoikeSports/status/756203640176508928[/tweet][tweet]https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFoster/status/756205223488593921[/tweet]