2017 Salary Situation

[bluerap23]

I started to think about what the current roster would cost for 2017, and then realized it was going to cost WAY too much for Rogers. I've made a few assumptions about escalating salaries and replaced a number of starters such as Smoak, Revere, etc with min. salary guys to try and make it more manageable. I made Jose and Edwin into very generous people. Long story short - this team is really going to have an impossible time keeping the core together beyond 2016.

Tulowitzki, Troy $20,000,000
Martin, Russell $20,000,000
Bautista, Jose $15,000,000
Dickey, R.A. Replacement $12,000,000
Estrada, Marco $14,500,000
Encarnacion, Edwin $15,000,000
Happ, J.A. $13,000,000
Donaldson, Josh $18,000,000
Cecil, Brett $5,000,000
Backup Catcher $2,000,000
Loup, Aaron $2,000,000
Hutchison, Drew $3,400,000
Stroman, Marcus $3,000,000
Pillar, Kevin $507,500
Sanchez, Aaron $507,500
Pompey, Dalton $507,500
Osuna, Roberto $507,500
Travis, Devon $507,500
Carrera, Ezequiel $507,500
Colabello, Chris $2,700,000
Dominguez, Matt $507,500
Dragmire, Brady $507,500
Goins, Ryan $507,500
Jenkins, Chad $507,500
Jimenez, A.J. $507,500
Schultz, Bo $507,500
Tepera, Ryan $507,500
Kawasaki, Munenori $507,500
TOTAL - TOR $152,705,000.00

[North_of_Border]

I think they might trade Martin if Pentecost is ready. Jays let Yan Gomes and d'Arnaud go. I hope they keep Pentecost. He is one of the best all around Catching propects in the league.

Tulo should be dealt by then and "both" if not only 1 of Bautista/Edwin will not be back.

The 2017 roster, minus Martin, Tulo and atleast 1 of Bautista/Edwin should be manageable.

I know that sounds like a weak roster then, but there will be other moves. People will replace these guys that leave. A lot can happen by 2017

[Schad]

I think they might trade Martin if Pentecost is ready. Jays let Yan Gomes and d'Arnaud go. I hope they keep Pentecost. He is one of the best all around Catching propects in the league.

Tulo should be dealt by then and "both" if not only 1 of Bautista/Edwin will not be back.

The 2017 roster, minus Martin, Tulo and atleast 1 of Bautista/Edwin should be manageable.

I know that sounds like a weak roster then, but there will be other moves. People will replace these guys that leave. A lot can happen by 2017

Pentecost didn't play all of last year, hasn't advanced above rookie ball, and it's currently unknown whether he'll even be ready to play to begin this season. There are also doubts about how his labrum surgery will affect his ability to catch, and his progress as a hitter. In all likelihood, he's years away, if he makes it at all.

[Lateral Quicks]

Barring a major infusion of cash by Rogers, the team's window is 2016. If Rogers was smart, they'd recognize this and do what was necessary to put this team over the top this year. If they want to be sellers after 2016 to bring the payroll down to compensate, just about everyone would be OK with that.

I don't think either EE or Bautista are here past 2016. If they don't reach agreement with Donaldson for a long-term contract, you can probably add him to the list. Martin and Tulo will probably stick because we don't have anyone in the system to assume those positions, and their large contracts make it less likely we'll be able to move them for value in return.

So... I expect the 2017 team to look nothing at all like the 2016 team. If Rogers wanted to they could keep this group together to 2018 for $175M or so... but they won't.

[dagger]

A better question is whether we should keep this core together beyond 2016. I mean, you have a bunch of aging hitters, too many to cover off 1B and DH. Jose is having more and more trouble playing in the outfield. Yet you have Pompey and Anthony Alford in the system ,and one of those two might prove to be a solid two way player,l if a different type of hitter. And there a couple of young pitchers who might be ready enough by 2017 to give us a cheap replacement for Dickey.

[bluerap23]

How much more do you think a playoff team makes each season?

I think there is a strong argument to try and extend the window for 3 years after 2016. If you extend Bautista and EE for 3 years this team can continue to compete well. The majority of the roster remains under control. I can definitely see Bautista and EE hitting for 3 more seasons. If things fall apart then you start rebuilding. But I'm sure Shapiro is thinking differently. His MO has been to move again players for youth.

[dagger]

I don't see the same guys playing at their recent level well into their late 30s. It's a recipe for diminishing returns. The perennial teams are not shy about turning over the roster to make room for elite young talent. If you believe like I do that Anthony Alford might be an elite talent, you don't suppress his rise by keeping Jose Bautista in the outfield where he is clearly in decline. You move Jose to 1B or DH, and we have enough of those as it is, so in 2017, something has to give.

[torontoaces04]

Edwin replacement - Rowdy Tellez
Joey Bats replacement - Anthony Alford.

We're good boys!

[COY0607]

about a 0% chance BOTH Edwin and Bautista are back- in fact, depending on the season goes, neither might be back

and everything is almost set for Tulo to be traded again, if Jays get off to a slow start and Travis and Goins play as expected

Also, who knows if we get a Dickey replacement for $12M- maybe Osuna or Sanchez (or one of the young leftover arms) are starting by that point

basically, if there is no postseason- stars are aligned for a full re-build starting next winter

[bluerap23]

I started to think about what the current roster would cost for 2017, and then realized it was going to cost WAY too much for Rogers. I've made a few assumptions about escalating salaries and replaced a number of starters such as Smoak, Revere, etc with min. salary guys to try and make it more manageable. I made Jose and Edwin into very generous people. Long story short - this team is really going to have an impossible time keeping the core together beyond 2016.

Tulowitzki, Troy $20,000,000
Martin, Russell $20,000,000
Bautista, Jose $15,000,000
Dickey, R.A. Replacement $12,000,000
Estrada, Marco $14,500,000
Encarnacion, Edwin $15,000,000
Happ, J.A. $13,000,000
Donaldson, Josh $18,000,000
Cecil, Brett $5,000,000
Backup Catcher $2,000,000
Loup, Aaron $2,000,000
Hutchison, Drew $3,400,000
Stroman, Marcus $3,000,000
Pillar, Kevin $507,500
Sanchez, Aaron $507,500
Pompey, Dalton $507,500
Osuna, Roberto $507,500
Travis, Devon $507,500
Carrera, Ezequiel $507,500
Colabello, Chris $2,700,000
Dominguez, Matt $507,500
Dragmire, Brady $507,500
Goins, Ryan $507,500
Jenkins, Chad $507,500
Jimenez, A.J. $507,500
Schultz, Bo $507,500
Tepera, Ryan $507,500
Kawasaki, Munenori $507,500
TOTAL - TOR $152,705,000.00

Tulowitzki, Troy $20,000,000
Martin, Russell $20,000,000
Bautista, Jose $15,000,000
Estrada, Marco $14,500,000
Encarnacion, Edwin $15,000,000
Happ, J.A. $13,000,000
Donaldson, Josh $18,000,000
Loup, Aaron $2,000,000
Hutchison, Drew $3,400,000
Stroman, Marcus $3,000,000
Pillar, Kevin $507,500
Sanchez, Aaron $507,500
Pompey, Dalton $507,500
Osuna, Roberto $507,500
Travis, Devon $507,500
Carrera, Ezequiel $507,500
Colabello, Chris $2,700,000
Dominguez, Matt $507,500
Dragmire, Brady $507,500
Goins, Ryan $507,500
Jenkins, Chad $507,500
Jimenez, A.J. $507,500
Schultz, Bo $507,500
Tepera, Ryan $507,500
Kawasaki, Munenori $507,500
TOTAL - TOR $133,705,000.00[/quote]

Tweaked some numbers to play around with it. I pulled the extra starting pitcher (dickey replacement), backup catcher (I figure you can get by with a minimum guy) and Cecil because I think he is going to go for way more than 5 million based on what has happened in this off-season. I really think they will pass on him. Still doesn't make sense to resign both JB and EE, unless the budget is in the 160 range.

[polo007]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RGriffinStar/status/688505330259595264[/tweet]

Free agency will be a big issue. The eight pending free agents at the end of 2016 include Bautista, Encarnacion, Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak, and pitchers R.A. Dickey, Drew Storen, Brett Cecil and Jesse Chavez. That’s an estimated $59 million in guaranteed salary that could disappear from the books. If the Jays wait until November before dealing with their free agents, it will already be too late.

The Blue Jays ended the 2015 campaign with a payroll of $135.7 million, the 10th highest in baseball and the largest in the team’s 39 seasons. Yes, that looks good on them but, as Forbes reported in December, MLB’s gross revenues increased by $500 million in 2015, to an estimated $9.5 billion. Nobody is losing money.

The Jays, by winning the AL East and battling the Royals to Game 6 of the AL Championship Series, reportedly generated $50 million in unexpected revenues. Where is that money headed? The payroll for the 25-player opening day roster in 2016 projects to $138 million. If winning generated that much extra revenue in 2015, why not try it again?

Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins received word at the winter meetings from Encarnacion’s agent that if the club waits until after opening day to try to extend his contract, Encarnacion will go through the free-agent process. Other important contracts that need to be addressed by the Jays include Bautista, Storen and Cecil. They will talk to them all in the spring.

Then there’s the AL MVP. Can the Jays convince Josh Donaldson to sign a long-term contract and avoid future free agency? Donaldson is headed to arbitration next month and will earn just under $12 million in 2016, with two more arbitration years after that. The Jays need to lock up at least some of their stars as a show of good faith to fans and as a sign to other players that they are intent on remaining contenders.

If the Jays make no serious effort in the next six months to extend their own free agents and if the club is struggling in the standings by the all-star break it all changes. With the trade deadline looming, what will be the message to Jays players that are already locked up long-term? Tulowitzki is signed through 2020, with a total of $98 million guaranteed. Catcher Russ Martin is signed through 2019 and is owed $75 million. And the two men who convinced the Montrealer to come to Toronto, Anthopoulos and former president Paul Beeston, are gone. If the Jays aren’t contending, do they ask out?

But, hey, all is not payroll doom and gloom. The Jays still have at least 14 solid major-leaguers who will be under club control for three to six years of major-league service. In addition to Tulowitzki, Martin and Donaldson, the list includes Marcus Stroman, Kevin Pillar, Aaron Sanchez, Happ, Roberto Osuna, Chris Colabello, Devon Travis, Ryan Goins, Dalton Pompey, Drew Hutchison and Aaron Loup.

[The_Hater]

The situation isn't that bad as I expect only one of JB and EE to be retained. And only one of them should be really.

I'm still cautiously optimistic that Rogers will increase the payroll more than expected if the Jays have another playoff run type season in 2016. Of course the poor Canadian dollar has been working against that probability too. That would help significantly.

[Lateral Quicks]

I'd like to see them extend Cecil. Quality lefty specialists are hard to come by, and Cecil is one of the best in the league. We saw how important he was by his absence in much of the playoffs last year. If he would accept something like a 3 year deal at around $7-8M per I'd do it. That's fair I think because he's only schedule to make something like $3.5M this year IIRC/

There's just no way Bautista and EE are both back, and that may not be a bad thing consider how most players perform as they enter their mid to late 30s. Nor will Dickey be. back. The rotation will be something like Stroman/Estrada/Happ/Sanchez/[Osuna/Hutchison/Greene/Chavez/young starter acquired via trade]. If they plan to compete they can use some of the Dickey/EE/
Bautista money to sign another quality starter.

[dagger]

Jesse Chavez won his arbitration, will get $4m this season.