Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[LyricalRico]

I don't see that helping Cleveland at all. They give up the best player in the deal, and it doesn't change any of their roster dynamics to help them matchup better with teams like GS that go small.

?

Beal is a quality SG with upside and a history of performing well in the playoffs. With him on the roster, they can play Lebron at the 4 a lot more because Beal, Smith and Shumpert can handle the rotation at SG and SF.
.

Beal is a SG that is not (right now) a big enough upgrade over the JR/Shumpert rotation they have to justify giving up Love. He doesnt solve their defending problems, Lebron doesnt want to be a full time PF (even though he should be) and they still have a starting C issue. If Love is going out, it has to be to plug holes, not strengthen areas where they are fine (SG)

Exactly what I was thinking in my original post (although I didn't explicitly state it). The upgrade to Beal over JR/Shump isn't large enough to justify the downgrade of Love to Nene.

[Dark Faze]

I don't want Love. Awful defender--just miserable

[TheSecretWeapon]

I don't want Love. Awful defender--just miserable

If this ever was true, it hasn't been several seasons. In the various defensive impact metrics I look at, Love rates as average to a little better than average.

[Dark Faze]

I don't really care for the metrics to be honest. His advanced stats are fine--but find a Cavs fan that has a positive opinion on his contributions on either side of the court. Tough to do.

Edit: Even Lowe himself has mentioned that the Cavs should consider giving him no more than 20 minutes a game in a potential rematch due to his horrendous PNR defense.

The eye test confirms him as a poor defender, has done so for many years.

[nuposse04]

I don't want Love. Awful defender--just miserable

If this ever was true, it hasn't been several seasons. In the various defensive impact metrics I look at, Love rates as average to a little better than average.

Certainly doesn't match the eye test. I'd be curious to see what the sports vu data says, and also how do the cavs use Love defensively. If the opposing player has a PF like Bosh, are they sticking Love on him or are they hiding him on somebody else? How often do the cavs switch? I can't imagine Kyrie and JR are great defenders either so that must lead to some dribble penetration which makes it difficult for him. Just watching him play though you can see how slow he is to reach though, not a physical presence and sometimes his effort is just non existent.

I think Love's offensive production can be elite in the right situation and outweighs his defensive flaws, but I'm not convinced he can deliver that offensive production consistently against good playoff defenses. He has to prove that this season IMO (hopefully doesn't get his arm ripped out again!).

[TheSecretWeapon]

Ah yeah, nothing like the good ol' "screw the numbers, I know what I see" argument.

Fan opinion doesn't mean much of anything to me. Fans are wrong even more often than GMs and the folks presented in the media as analysts. It wasn't long ago that fans of the Wizards were calling Brendan Haywood "Brenda", claiming that he sucked, and pining for the toughness of Etan Thomas -- in the midst of Haywood having a dominant defensive season. And, I KNOW Haywood was dominating defensively because the metrics provided that information, and the debate over his value led me to an in-depth defensive tracking project, which confirmed what the other metrics were saying, and explained why the team was so much better defensively when Haywood was playing instead of Thomas in identical roles -- despite Thomas passing the so-called "eye test."

I respect Zach Lowe, and very much pay attention to his analysis. He could be right about limiting Love's playing time against a team like Golden State. Love does seem to struggle at times against quicker matchups, especially in screen/roll. I've heard Lowe call Love a "minus" defensively, but I haven't heard him explain the reasoning. What I know is that on the scoreboard, the Cavs are about the same defensively whether Love is on the floor or not. This was true when he was in Minnesota as well. He can be exploited in certain matchups and certain sets, but that's true of basically everyone in the NBA -- except maybe Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard.

[nuposse04]

Ah yeah, nothing like the good ol' "screw the numbers, I know what I see" argument.

Fan opinion doesn't mean much of anything to me. Fans are wrong even more often than GMs and the folks presented in the media as analysts. It wasn't long ago that fans of the Wizards were calling Brendan Haywood "Brenda", claiming that he sucked, and pining for the toughness of Etan Thomas -- in the midst of Haywood having a dominant defensive season. And, I KNOW Haywood was dominating defensively because the metrics provided that information, and the debate over his value led me to an in-depth defensive tracking project, which confirmed what the other metrics were saying, and explained why the team was so much better defensively when Haywood was playing instead of Thomas in identical roles -- despite Thomas passing the so-called "eye test."

I respect Zach Lowe, and very much pay attention to his analysis. He could be right about limiting Love's playing time against a team like Golden State. Love does seem to struggle at times against quicker matchups, especially in screen/roll. I've heard Lowe call Love a "minus" defensively, but I haven't heard him explain the reasoning. What I know is that on the scoreboard, the Cavs are about the same defensively whether Love is on the floor or not. This was true when he was in Minnesota as well. He can be exploited in certain matchups and certain sets, but that's true of basically everyone in the NBA -- except maybe Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard.

I've always thought defense might be the most difficult spectrum of basketball to analyze cause there seemed to be a lot of variables that go into ones ability to play sound defense (especially pending the inadequacies of teammates).

I decided to go and see how players 6'7 and taller and +225 LBs rated on nba.com player tracking:

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/defense/#!/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PCT_PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&StarterBench=Starters&Weight=GT%20225&Height=GT%206-7

specifically guys who have started.

Of the 141 guys that qualified, Kevin Love had the 23rd Worst dfg% upon the guys he was guarding and the 25th worst defensive differential % in that guys shot about 5% better when love was guarding them.

Now of course we got argue which system has more credibility but I think there is value in this data. At least it shows on a very individual level Kevin love does stuggle, the team may not be too much worse because of him... but that could be attributable to defense of the other players around him, no? On the flip side perhaps he had to cover for a player who got beat on defense... but as a big you are suppose to be a line of defense, especially at the rim, he certainly isn't that.

In any case, no way Cavs give us Love for the right to overpay Beal.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

The Cavs don't use Kevin Love correctly. His skillset overlaps with Lebron and Kyrie. Trade Beal and Gortat for Love then sign Whiteside this offseason. Wall Bazemore Otto Love Whiteside

At this point, that's a lot to give up for Love.

...and I would do anything for Love.

But I won't do that.

Am I the only one that got the Meatloaf reference?

Thanks bro.

I just might be dating myself with that one.

[Dark Faze]

its useless to talk about on/off numbers in regards to defense without talking about the quality of players replacing you

[stevemcqueen1]

I would be trying to buy low on Kevin Love. I think Cleveland could be in a mood to move him quickly and would have to sell low.

My offers would be like Nene + Oubre and a first rounder for Love, or Nene + Gortat and a first for Love + Mozgov.

[Ruzious]

its useless to talk about on/off numbers in regards to defense without talking about the quality of players replacing you

Thompson and Sideshow V are the players generally replacing Love, and they're good defenders.

[stevemcqueen1]

The coup in a Kevin Love trade would be getting him without giving up Beal and also retaining a starting caliber C.

Cleveland is in a bit of a fix cap-wise and Kevin Love is starting to become a problem child for them. That's why I like a PF & C swap for both teams. Mozgov is a UFA this summer, so getting Gortat means they're set with a high quality and affordable option at C while we at least get a credible body in return. And they get out from Love's deal and get Nene's expiring. And for the duration of the season, Nene + Gortat + Thompson is a pretty good rotation of bigs.

Meanwhile we hope the change of scenery is good for Love. His surliness and apathy in Cleveland has been a little scary. But going from #3 to the #1 scoring option and playing with a pass first PG might reinvigorate him. And if it did, we'd be coming out of the deal with the best player. Plus fix our PF situation with a long term option. I'm not crazy about losing our super affordable center in the process. But it's worth it for the general upgrade in player.

I'd be praying that Mozgov took to DC though, enough so that we'd want to keep him this summer and that he'd want to stay.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Ah yeah, nothing like the good ol' "screw the numbers, I know what I see" argument.

Fan opinion doesn't mean much of anything to me. Fans are wrong even more often than GMs and the folks presented in the media as analysts. It wasn't long ago that fans of the Wizards were calling Brendan Haywood "Brenda", claiming that he sucked, and pining for the toughness of Etan Thomas -- in the midst of Haywood having a dominant defensive season. And, I KNOW Haywood was dominating defensively because the metrics provided that information, and the debate over his value led me to an in-depth defensive tracking project, which confirmed what the other metrics were saying, and explained why the team was so much better defensively when Haywood was playing instead of Thomas in identical roles -- despite Thomas passing the so-called "eye test."

I respect Zach Lowe, and very much pay attention to his analysis. He could be right about limiting Love's playing time against a team like Golden State. Love does seem to struggle at times against quicker matchups, especially in screen/roll. I've heard Lowe call Love a "minus" defensively, but I haven't heard him explain the reasoning. What I know is that on the scoreboard, the Cavs are about the same defensively whether Love is on the floor or not. This was true when he was in Minnesota as well. He can be exploited in certain matchups and certain sets, but that's true of basically everyone in the NBA -- except maybe Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard.

I've always thought defense might be the most difficult spectrum of basketball to analyze cause there seemed to be a lot of variables that go into ones ability to play sound defense (especially pending the inadequacies of teammates).

I decided to go and see how players 6'7 and taller and +225 LBs rated on nba.com player tracking:

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/defense/#!/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PCT_PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&StarterBench=Starters&Weight=GT%20225&Height=GT%206-7

specifically guys who have started.

Of the 141 guys that qualified, Kevin Love had the 23rd Worst dfg% upon the guys he was guarding and the 25th worst defensive differential % in that guys shot about 5% better when love was guarding them.

Now of course we got argue which system has more credibility but I think there is value in this data. At least it shows on a very individual level Kevin love does stuggle, the team may not be too much worse because of him... but that could be attributable to defense of the other players around him, no? On the flip side perhaps he had to cover for a player who got beat on defense... but as a big you are suppose to be a line of defense, especially at the rim, he certainly isn't that.

In any case, no way Cavs give us Love for the right to overpay Beal.

Good post. I've spent time with this data, and it's interesting. I have some issues with it, like that it doesn't really account for who's guarding who -- it relies on proximity. So, the closest defender to the guy shooting is considered the defender, whether he is or not. Similar issues with Synergy data as well.

That said, even assuming this information is correct, SOMETHING happens when Love is on the floor that his teams are about the same defensively whether he's in the game or not. (This next part is directed more at the folks I saw on Twitter, not you nuposse.) If he's so awful defensively that he's apparently unacceptable in trade anywhere in the NBA, and he's apparently unplayable in Cleveland, why is the on/off defensive difference in Cleveland this season only 2 points so far? The Cleveland defense with Love on the floor would rank 9th best in the NBA this season.

IF Love is so awful defensively, how come Cleveland was 3.0 points per 100 possessions better defensively last season when he was on the floor? They were about league average with him, but were among the league's worst defenses when he was out of the game. The same question could be asked about each of his seasons -- despite changing teams and teammates. He's been on terrible defensive teams and decent defensive teams and (so far this season) one good defensive team, and throughout all that, his teams have been about the same defensively whether he's on the floor or not. In fact, for his career, his teams have allowed 108.0 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and 108.1 when he's been off the floor.

My reading of the data -- and the watching of the games -- leads me to the conclusion that Love isn't an impact defender one way or the other. He's about average defensively: good in some situations, not as good in others. But, his overall impact on the game is significantly positive because he's been very good on offense.

[stevemcqueen1]

Would Wizards fans do Nene + Gortat + Oubre for Love + Mozgov?

[LyricalRico]

Would Wizards fans do Nene + Gortat + Oubre for Love + Mozgov?

Holy crap yes! Ain't gonna happen, though.

[dckingsfan]

Would Wizards fans do Nene + Gortat + Oubre for Love + Mozgov?

Holy crap yes! Ain't gonna happen, though.

But Mosgov would be out of here at the end of the season

I would doubt EG would go for it as it would limit the KD2DC push?

[Ruzious]

Would Wizards fans do Nene + Gortat + Oubre for Love + Mozgov?

Holy crap yes! Ain't gonna happen, though.

But Mosgov would be out of here at the end of the season

I would doubt EG would go for it as it would limit the KD2DC push?

It might be a good thing that Mozgov's a free agent - the way he's slid badly this season. But yeah, we'd need to get a center, and Love costs I think something like 9 mil more than Gortat, so we probably couldn't afford a max free agent. I'd actually rather do a Beal for Love trade in the offseason if it's possible, but like Nate said, the CBA might not allow that kind of sign and trade.

[stevemcqueen1]

Would Wizards fans do Nene + Gortat + Oubre for Love + Mozgov?

Holy crap yes! Ain't gonna happen, though.

But Mosgov would be out of here at the end of the season

I would doubt EG would go for it as it would limit the KD2DC push?

Yeah it takes us from a very good situation at center to a very poor one. My justification is that, if Love gets back closer to what he was in Minny by changing situations, then it'd be worth it to upgrade from Gortat to Love. If not, well, we weren't going to compete for a title off of Gortat's back anyway. It's a good gamble IMO.

Hopefully Ernie would be realistic about our tiny chance of signing Durant and wouldn't pass up an opportunity to buy low on a player like Kevin Love because of it. A team that keeps Wall, Otto, and Beal and brings in Love wouldn't prioritize signing KD either. Center would be the big priority.

[deneem4]

Holy crap yes! Ain't gonna happen, though.

But Mosgov would be out of here at the end of the season

I would doubt EG would go for it as it would limit the KD2DC push?

Yeah it takes us from a very good situation at center to a very poor one. My justification is that, if Love gets back closer to what he was in Minny by changing situations, then it'd be worth it to upgrade from Gortat to Love. If not, well, we weren't going to compete for a title off of Gortat's back anyway. It's a good gamble IMO.

Hopefully Ernie would be realistic about our tiny chance of signing Durant and wouldn't pass up an opportunity to buy low on a player like Kevin Love because of it. A team that keeps Wall, Otto, and Beal and brings in Love wouldn't prioritize signing KD either. Center would be the big priority.

Pipe dream
But this is the perfect year to get a center...
Dwight
Or maybe whiteside sign and trade + picks for cousins

Dwight

[fishercob]

Would Wizards fans do Nene + Gortat + Oubre for Love + Mozgov?

I don't think Cleveland needs Gortat.

I think they need a big that can switch on to perimeter players and versatile wings who can play with Lebron and allow him to move to the 4 in big stretches, as well as to the 5 against Golden State's death lineup. Cleveland's best and only counter to Draymond at the 5 is Lebron.

Nene would help them. He can switched better than any of their bigs.

Dudley would help them. He's an ideal role player, smart defender, and the 4th best 3 point shooter in the league this year. He'd off open looks from that Kyrie/Lebron pick and roll.

As much as I'd like Cleveland to take Beal, they don't need him -- and his impending payday this summer is probably really unattractive to them given their tax situation.

The guy who would really help them and they should want is Otto Porter. His smarts and defensive versatility, his board work and shooting would be a great fit there. Plus, they can put off paying him for a year, and by then the cap will have gone up another 20%.

Nene + Dudley + Porter for Love and Mozgov worked under the CBA and saves CLeveland a big chunk on their luxtax bill. I don't love losing Otto, but Love is the better player and who knows what kind of deal we'd be forced into making to keep Otto in a year-plus. ANd perhaps there's some hope that Oubre could learn fast.

As far as the Durant pipe dream goes, if KD decides to sign here, we can just renounce Beal's cap hold and have enough space for Durant (yes?)