Don't Be Hurtin' Lin - The Jeremy Lin Thread 2

[HornetJail]

nobody said you will get value back, it is better than nothing, just one of scenarios that might end up

When we're talking about a top 15 wing player in the entire league, that is awfully pedantic.

[phillycheese]

nobody said you will get value back, it is better than nothing, just one of scenarios that might end up

When we're talking about a top 15 wing player in the entire league, that is awfully pedantic.

If said top 15 wing player is unwilling to sign, and another team that is willing to sign him to the max in order to beat out other suitors will be willing to give up a second rounder perhaps. Better than losing him for nothing. Player benefits because he gets the max. Signing team benefits because they get the player and beat out the other suitors.

[spaceballer]

nobody said you will get value back, it is better than nothing, just one of scenarios that might end up

When we're talking about a top 15 wing player in the entire league, that is awfully pedantic.

If said top 15 wing player is unwilling to sign, and another team that is willing to sign him to the max in order to beat out other suitors will be willing to give up a second rounder perhaps. Better than losing him for nothing. Player benefits because he gets the max. Signing team benefits because they get the player and beat out the other suitors.

First of all, shouldn't this discussion be in the Batum thread?

Second, under the current CBA, a sign and trade from the Hornets would not offer Batum the same max (bird right raises and extra year) that he can get for staying with the Hornets. The Hornets are not allowed to offer the same terms in a sign-and-trade that they can offer if he stays. A sign-and-trade would just be the same (non-bird) max that he can get from a team that has sufficient cap space. The Hornets possessing the bird rights allows them to do a sign-and-trade for a NON-bird max, not for a bird max. If Batum wants the Bird Max, he will have to stay in Charlotte.

Third, since the Hornets wish to pursue Batum's services, they have no reason to offer to facilitate his signing with another team, unless they're sure they're going to lose him even if they don't participate in the sign-and-trade.

Fourth, since the Hornets are not currently operating over the cap, they don't really have a need for a TPE (or unwanted contracts from the other team, since they can just let Batum walk and work out their own contracts with free agents using the renounced cap-hold salary space) and thus lack impetus to pursue such a deal rather than just have him walk and free up the cap hold. Nor would the team that is stealing Batum away from Charlotte want to do a sign-and-trade if they already have sufficient cap space to offer Batum a max. The other team would have to be a preferred destination for Batum that is willing to give up assets because, if they don't, Batum will leave both the Hornets and that other team for a yet a third team that has sufficient cap space. Or perhaps the other team has to choose between signing Batum with cap space, or using that cap space on someone else and then offloading an unwanted contract+assets to the Hornets in order to acquire Batum in a sign-and-trade and operate over the cap (choosing the former if the Hornets decline to play ball).

Batum in a sign-and-trade is technically possible, but the odds of it are very low, and would require a bizarre concatenation of circumstances.

The prospect is pretty much zero. Sign-and-trades have lost considerable value as an option in this current CBA compared to the previous one. Even the Lakers didn't get any assets back in a sign-and-trade and just let Howard walk to the Rockets. Because it didn't really make sense for all the parties involved. Or like how Lebron walked from the Heat to the Cavs, instead of the Heat getting something back in a sign-and-trade. (Lebron going from the Cavs to the Heat in a sign-and-trade was in the previous CBA, not the current one where Lebron walked with no sign-and-trade back to the CAvs. Different rules).

Batum doesn't really care, because he can't get more money in a sign-and-trade (no bird raises or bird max allowed in sign-and-trades in the current CBA, unlike the previous one). He'll only care if it's the only way he can get onto a team. The other team won't really care because they have the free cap space to sign him directly to a non-bird max (otherwise, they're not a threat to steal Batum away, unless Batum hates the Hornets and will still sign for less money to leave, in which case why would the other team need to pay more and give up assets to do it?). And the Hornets have the least interest in a sign-and-trade, since they don't wish to facilitate his leaving, and won't get much of value back, perhaps less of value than just letting Batum walk and freeing up the caphold.

If anything Batum probably doesn't want a sign-and-trade, since it would potentially weaken his new team by requiring them to give up assets, and he won't get more money out of it anyway, unless there's no other way for him to join that team.

[TinmanZBoy]

tl;tr...give you and1 though

[spaceballer]

At this moment, I think neither Hornets nor Lin could commit on next season this early. There are so many uncertainties that we are not sure yet.

First of all, since this team was never fully healthy for this season, we really don't know how far this roster can go. Will Batum/MKG fit together, how AI will work in the team, could this roster get into playoff or not. That will all impact on what the team will adjust next summer.

So to Hornets team, first priority of course is to keep Batum. Good thing is we have Batum's bird right, so how much more the team would pay Batum over 20M will not impact on other FA signing, so we could just consider 20M cap space for him. (That's the cap hold for him, and anything higher than that the team could afford to pay over the cap.)

Then next thing is what do we do with AI, if we let him walk, we still need a replacement big. Cody is nice but I don't think he is good enough for full time starter center yet, we still need a rim protector. Whether Hornets sign one from FA, or trade one, we really don't know what kind of price range that will be, and whom will get trade out.

Then is the time to evaluate the development of Lamb/MKG (offensive side)/Kemba (how stable his shooting is), that's the time for the team to decide how big a hole of this back up PG/SG is. Since these players are all on contract and unless any of them got traded, or Batum did not come back, to be honest, there might not be much space left need to be filled. Same with the cap sapce. (I'm not sure how much the big will cost.)

I know Lin is important for this team, but if Kemba holds his shooting efficiency, and Batum stay, Lamb continue to improve his defense, I don't really think this team need (and afford) a 10M combo guard as a back up. It would be more important to get a rim protector that could help to balance the court.

If, Batum/MKG could not work well together well, and the team could not even get into playoff, i'd think there is no point trying to get most of the old player back to continue with current construction, bigger trade might happen, then the whole team could look differently, that will also impact on whether the team will need Lin more or not, and also whether there are bigger cap space opens up or not.

Based on my current calculation, the team has roughly 24M left to get a big, resign Lin and Marvin(or equivalent), fill up the roster, sign the first round pick, unless we trade some bigger salary out like Hawes. So the cap space could be a little big tight.

Agreed. There are so many variables that no one really knows what the picture will look like till the end of the season, and maybe not even then. So much of the speculation doesn't matter much at this point. We'll just have to see how the rest of the season goes and then evaluate things after the picture is more clear when the free agent market develops after the draft.

It's not like anyone has ever been able to accurately predict what happens with Jeremy in the off-season anyway. No one foresaw him signing with the Hornets. No one thought the Knicks would let him go and not match any figure. Who knows what will happen in the summer.

And you're correct that neither side is ready to commit at this point. As a matter of fact, when asked recently by a reporter if he had finally found a basketball home with the Hornets, Jeremy said "no." Or, as he more diplomatically put it, "not yet," and that he'll wait till he gets a big long term contract before he's ready to call any team home. He's bounced around enough that he knows the NBA is a business. Whatever the situation, he's always been professional and will play his heart out for the team. But he's already said that the Hornets are not his basketball home and future, or at least "not yet", since he doesn't know where he'll end up this summer. The Hornets may have other needs to fill with their cap space and may not want to bring him back.

He's never been able to predict where he'll end up (didn't know GSW would cut him, didn't know the Knicks would let him go, didn't know he would get traded to the Lakers, didn't even consider Charlotte as an option till very late in the free agency process). Nor have any fans ever guessed right. If people say he'll stay with the Hornets, he may be gone. If people say he won't stay with the Hornets, he just might retire in Charlotte.

[bigbob]

I think Lin is definitely gone after this season. Lin is a great player, has done way more than what the hornets expected out of him.. but in the end, they won't be able to justify spending so much money on a backup PG. When lin opts out this season (assuming the clause is there) then hornets won't match any offer he gets from another team that is much more than the MLE. Its a shame, but Lin needs to do whats best for his career and hornets need to do what they think is best for their organization. I have a feeling though, lin will be looking for a long term contract after this season, 4-5 years with as big a contract as possible, on a contending team.

[KM6]

I think Lin is definitely gone after this season. Lin is a great player, has done way more than what the hornets expected out of him.. but in the end, they won't be able to justify spending so much money on a backup PG. When lin opts out this season (assuming the clause is there) then hornets won't match any offer he gets from another team that is much more than the MLE. Its a shame, but Lin needs to do whats best for his career and hornets need to do what they think is best for their organization. I have a feeling though, lin will be looking for a long term contract after this season, 4-5 years with as big a contract as possible, on a contending team.

It's nice to have a Lin thread hijacked by other subjects once in a while. But I tend to agree with you. Lin should be looking for a long term contract entering into his prime, and looking to start somewhere. Hornets top priority is getting a rim protector.

[spaceballer]

Its hard to really get a read on what to expect with salaries next summer with the big salary cap jump coming. Based on what Lin is giving us know, he feels like a MLE level player, something in the 5-7 mil range. What will that translate to in the summer, I'm not really sure. I'd love to have him back, but I'd have a really hard time with anything over 7-8 mil a season for anything longer than 3 years. Something similar to what Lamb received 3/21 seems about right to me. Its the golden age of point guards. It would not be that difficult to find a quality backup point guard/combo guard for 7-8 mil per season or less.

I think it's clear he's probably worth more than the the MLE of $5.6M.

Also, while it's a golden age of point guards, you still need one of them to agree to sign for a backup role of limited minutes on a non-contender in a small market (doubly so if the Hornets fail to make the playoffs). That means throwing money at them.

Look at the backup PG woes that the Bulls have had. Heck, look at Charlotte having to rely on the playmaking of BRob last season to run the bench offense. The Sixers had to trade a pair of draft picks just to get any semblance of PG play, so it's not like you can just pick up a random PG without wasting assets and have someone serviceable even in this golden age of PGs. And you can't even get that much on the Nets now that Jarret Jack went down. The Rockets picked up Lawson to much fanfare only to have those hopes collapse when they had trouble playing him off-ball next to Harden. This season, the Mavs had to promise a 4yr contract to a past his prime currently 31yr old JJ Barea for $16M in order to have an undersized backup PG (and he may have been their starting PG if Brooklyn hadn't bought out Deron Williams).

Lin checks off a lot of boxes.

-Big PG that isn't undersized. (ask the Bulls how their undersized backup PGs like Aaron Brooks or Nate Robinson before that can get bullied by bigger players who go at them)

-Can play on-ball or off-ball. (ask the Rockets about the problems with having Lawson on the court with Harden at the beginning of the year because Lawson couldn't play off ball to a playmaking wing like Harden or Batum. Or how horribly the Rockets bench offense failed when they tried to have Beverley run the bench that first year because PatBev is a defensive off-ball complement to Harden and lacked playmaking floor general skills to run an offense on-ball that first year off the bench.) Jeremy can switch back and forth so that he can be on-ball to draw attention or as a decoy and then give it up to a teammate to make a play, or he can play off-ball and then catch the ball and make a play with it on-ball if his teammate needed to cough up the ball-handling duties because of being double teamed and pressured by opposing gameplan.

-Can play both positions of PG and SG. This is especially useful in small ball lineups or any "positionless" basketball trend. Or if there's an injury at either position, this added versatility gives more options to pick up the slack as well as for in-game adjustments. And I do mean he can play both positions and isn't the usual "combo" guard. Many "combo" guards are just undersized SGs and play that way. But Lin has the playmaking ability to orchestrate an offense as a PG and get his teammates assists, but also the size to defend some SGs as well as SG abilities like off-ball movement (VERY improved this season under Cliff) and catch-and-shoots or scoring at the rim.

-Can generate offense for himself as well as for teammates. He's not a point guard that is only an assist threat, but not a threat to shoot himself like Rubio or Rondo before him, whose shot can be ignored by the defense. Nor is he only a "scoring" guard who can rack up baskets for himself but that can't generate good assists/shots for his teammates at the rim or uncontested 3pters for his teammates by being a floor general. Put him next to a good PnR finisher (which the Hornets lack right now), and you'll see magic happen. Heck, I'd even settle for him to have an above the rim guy he can do alley-oops with, which he's also good at but we hardly ever see on this team.

-Can run the transition game as well as execute half-court sets. So if the game speeds up, he can shine with his fastbreaks (either with his football passes the length of the court, or using his speed to take the ball coast to coast himself as he's done several times in the past). If the game slows down, he can execute in half-court sets with pick-and-rolls or quarter back a play drawn up by the coach.

-Can play BOTH sides of the court. Both offense and defense. He's not a one-way player.

-Can play both inside and outside. He can penetrate and finish at the rim. And he can shoot from beyond the arc (despite his current shooting woes, which I trust he'll fix once he gets his new shot mechanics down. His 3pt percentage has gone up every year except this uncharacteristic one. And he holds the 3pt record for the Sixers' arena with 9 made threes.)

-He's in his prime. Not a prospect that's still struggling to develop and adjust to the NBA, nor an over the hill vet in twilight years.

-Good locker room presence and general attitude, coach-able to a fault. So it's not like he's someone floating around just because he's a headcase and cheap and available for a reason.

-Can carry a team, and has in the past. So if someone goes down with injuries and you need him to step up, he can. Has played in lots of big pressure moments.

-Someone that the opposing defense has to game-plan for. Opposing players and coaches have talked about gameplanning to stop him. So, if nothing else, that respect for his offensive ability eases the burden on other players and gives them easier shots and freedom to run plays.

And that's before considering his fan appeal and marketability.

Yes, it's a golden age of PGs, but it'll be hard to find someone who checks all the boxes of the things Jeremy brings. Though in fairness, they may bring their own strengths. And perhaps they won't have some of the flaws that Jeremy is still working on (he can definitely stand to improve his handles).

Any choice will have their own strengths and flaws. Jeremy included. But he sure does check a lot of boxes.

[bws94]

I think Lin is definitely gone after this season. Lin is a great player, has done way more than what the hornets expected out of him.. but in the end, they won't be able to justify spending so much money on a backup PG. When lin opts out this season (assuming the clause is there) then hornets won't match any offer he gets from another team that is much more than the MLE. Its a shame, but Lin needs to do whats best for his career and hornets need to do what they think is best for their organization. I have a feeling though, lin will be looking for a long term contract after this season, 4-5 years with as big a contract as possible, on a contending team.

Who started for Batum when he couldn't go for a few games? Seems to me Lin is more than a backup PG otherwise Lamb would have started for Batum. In fact, he doesn't play PG as much as he does "another PnR facilitator" on the team. Lin's role is closer to 6th man as it has developed.

I don't think we know what is on Lin's mind. As far as I can read, he's thinking of this season and wanting to improve his shot and further improve his D. Those are the points he was stressing in the latest interview I've read. Don't know about next season. Lin hasn't felt he peaked this season. I think offensively, Lin has a lot more to show than he has thus far.

[bws94]

Lin may be in his prime age wise, but still not at the rate of development of guys that got a lot of playing time earlier in their careers. Lin is still working on some things. He started playing big minutes at age 23, not 20/21 like a lot of other players. Although, physically, I don't know. He looks a lot quicker in his 2012/2013 highlights. Hopefully when he's healthier he'll regain that first step because it doesn't look as explosive this season as past seasons.

[TTNN]

the Hornets don't operate over the cap...

"Haven't", not don't.

MJ is getting the ASG and has made the success of this team a priority. I don't expect him to be super stingy about going over the cap. We'll see.

there is another scenario nobody has mentioned is to sign and trade Nic

This summer most team will have cap space why they need to sign and trade? They could just straight sign with Batum without give up anything.

[spaceballer]

I think Lin likes Charlotte, Cliff, and this team, even if he's frustrated with his performance this season (specifically his low shooting %'s).

I agree.

I expect him to want to stick around and to take a discount to do it. I wouldn't be shocked if he exercises his player option - I think his initial deal made it clear that money wasn't the priority and I doubt that has changed.

I'm not sure I agree with this. I would be shocked if he exercised his option. I don't think that was ever a realistic scenario barring an injury. I think the option year was put in as injury insurance.

Also, he witnessed first hand how this single discount year deal works. His former teammate Ed Davis did that last year with the Lakers. Took a below market year at virtually vet min to showcase his value. The Lakers and their fans liked him and wanted to bring him back after that single discount year. And Ed Davis liked the Lakers and the LA market. But, in the end, Davis signed elsewhere with Portland because he took the largest deal available in order to recoup the lost earnings from the discount year, despite liking the Lakers and the city and despite the Lakers and fans wanting him back.

If he's following the plan that he saw his teammate Ed Davis execute last year with the single discount Laker year, he'll have to take the largest deal out there. Especially since this is his career and he's in his prime right now. This contract will cover his prime production and prime earning years.

Jeremy has already stated that he won't consider the Hornets his basketball home unless he gets a big long contract. So I'm not sure if he'll take a discount to stay here since he's already given a discount this year, especially if there are opportunities out there to either start or to be a backup on a contending team with a chance to win a ring (if he's going to take a discount at all, those may be more attractive options to do so, especially if the Hornets fail to make the playoffs). He's already given the Hornets a discount year to kick the tires, so if they don't feel he's valuable enough to pay for and want him to take another discount instead of paying him after they've benefited from a single discounted year, then that tells him how much they value or don't value him.

Further, signing at a discount for long term in Charlotte won't amplify his endorsements to offset the discount. First, because it's a small market. Second, because he won't have a featured role as a starter to rack up minutes and points and assists, nor a central role in the offense. So this wouldn't increase his secondary revenue stream of endorsements to make a long-term discount more palatable. Third, because he's signed with Adidas (not sure when the contract runs out), so Michael Jordan can't even give him a big Jumpman contract or anything.

Yes, money doesn't matter to him this season. I'm not sure that holds true next season with the cap jump and the fact that this coming contract will cover his prime years, as well as having to recoup the lost earnings from this single discounted year. After this coming multi-year contract, he may be on the other side of 30. He's the same age as Batum. I think he'll go for the highest bidder, because he may not get a bigger contract after he's past his prime.

And if this is going to be his prime years production contract, he'll need to bank away money so that he can put a good chunk of it into his foundation. Since he wants working at his foundation to be his post-basketball career (assuming he's not going to be a pastor post-basketball like he wanted earlier in his career). Building schools and orphanages like the ones he's traveled to and supported around the world cost money. He'll need to squirrel away a good chunk of it into his foundation if that's going to be his post-basketball career like he says.

Then again, no one really knows what the market will look like this summer with the cap jump and what needs and openings happen in other teams, especially when every team has money, or what needs and holes the Hornets prioritize filling. Backup PG may not be one of those. And there's always Brian Roberts who is also a free agent this summer and will almost certainly be willing to come back for less to run the bench offense.

It's too early to really make any predictions. The Hornets may draft a rookie PG that they want to groom and fills the hole, or maybe they'll find something in trade at the trade deadline (Steph Curry getting homesick and demanding a trade from Golden State next month to eat his mom's cooking?). Or maybe Roberts explodes into an all-star.

[spaceballer]

Cody Zeller, Kemba Walker, and Jeremy Lin as seen through the eyes of a 7yr old.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ChristyCroley/status/689620213109780480[/tweet]
https://twitter.com/ChristyCroley/status/689620213109780480

[BatumtheGlue]

While i agree with most of you guys said, i found it a lil' bit funny that you guys seem to "know" what is in his mind, lol. Or maybe some of you are his entourage in real life?

If he resign with the Hornets for a reasonable contract then i"ll be happy, that will be a good thing for both sides.

[13th Man]

Lin may be in his prime age wise, but still not at the rate of development of guys that got a lot of playing time earlier in their careers. Lin is still working on some things. He started playing big minutes at age 23, not 20/21 like a lot of other players. Although, physically, I don't know. He looks a lot quicker in his 2012/2013 highlights. Hopefully when he's healthier he'll regain that first step because it doesn't look as explosive this season as past seasons.

Just my opinion but I think he should lay off building his upper body too much (and I'm a personal trainer lol). he already has the size for a pg, one of his main strengths lies in his quickness which he needs to try to get back. Perhaps some of it is lost due to aging as well but he shouldn't be losing quickness at 27 especially for an Asian lol. His game and his position is not based on power, if this was boxing, I'd rather see him maintain the Oscar De La Hoya body type than that of Marvin Hagler. Guys like Andrew Wiggins could probably benefit from bulking up since he needs to bang inside but Lin not so much. Sure, he looks better physically now but I saw videos of him shoulder pressing 80lb dumbells which is impressive and all but don't think that's the most important attribute to have as a pg

[13th Man]

Wow Spaceballer just broke out with a series of quality posts! I know he's a vet poster but was used to him being a copy/paste guy here

[Roy Tarpley]

Another possibility is that, given the success of the high octane offense that D'Antoni helped popularize, he gets hired by another team to coach. And then Lin tries to go there. For example, if the Sixers make D'Antoni their coach, and they give up on their Smith/Canaan/McConnell/Marshall PG merry-go-round, they could sign Lin for relatively cheap. Isn't Ish from NC? He could backup Kemba here.

[fatlever]

Lin not in the top 15 in jersey sales. Come on Lin fans, buy some Hornets Lin jerseys already! Just kidding.

I put my value for Lin on this roster next season at 7/8 mil. What numbers do you guys think is fair and expected?

I'd offer Lin something in the range of 3/21 to 3/24 (maybe with a player option for 3rd year), for Lin to continue a similar role as backup PG, secondary playmaker and combo guard in the 20-30 mpg range. If Lin turned down that deal, at the end of the day, if I was the Hornets, I would feel OK with my offer and just accept to move in a different direction and look to fill a different need.

[13th Man]

Lin not in the top 15 in jersey sales. Come on Lin fans, buy some Hornets Lin jerseys already! Just kidding.

I put my value for Lin on this roster next season at 7/8 mil. What numbers do you guys think is fair and expected?

I'd offer Lin something in the range of 3/21 to 3/24 (maybe with a player option for 3rd year), for Lin to continue a similar role as backup PG, secondary playmaker and combo guard in the 20-30 mpg range. If Lin turned down that deal, at the end of the day, if I was the Hornets, I would feel OK with my offer and just accept to move in a different direction and look to fill a different need.

Based off the current salaries, I think that's a fair assessment of his value on this team. After this year with the new CBA, we don't really know how big of an impact it will make on players salaries. On other teams Lin could be valued more and on some, less.

I know this is a Hornets forum so you guys are strictly concerned about what's best for the Hornets, but the reality of the situation is that he will have other options and at that time Lin will have to decide what's best for him, not what's best for the Hornets. If he ends up leaving, it could be what's best for both parties based on fit.

[Roy Tarpley]

Lin not in the top 15 in jersey sales. Come on Lin fans, buy some Hornets Lin jerseys already! Just kidding.

I put my value for Lin on this roster next season at 7/8 mil. What numbers do you guys think is fair and expected?

I'd offer Lin something in the range of 3/21 to 3/24 (maybe with a player option for 3rd year), for Lin to continue a similar role as backup PG, secondary playmaker and combo guard in the 20-30 mpg range. If Lin turned down that deal, at the end of the day, if I was the Hornets, I would feel OK with my offer and just accept to move in a different direction and look to fill a different need.

I think your numbers sound about right. And I think Lin's current role on the team is good too (i.e., 6th man, closing 5, spot starter, 28-30 min/game). Aside from his current injury and shooting woes, the one other problem is that he hasn't been able to make this team better. I thought he'd be PNRing with Zeller, alley-ooping with Lamb, running a fast tempo offense with Clifford's greenlight but he looks stuck in the mud. No PNR options, no alley-oop options, this team doesn't seem to be a natural fit for Lin's style, nor has he been able to impose his style on the Hornets. It's not good for either side.