Horford won't sign a Contract Extension before next summer

[PandaKidd]

You argue that we let Josh walk for nothing, and we should have traded him (for the record I wanted him gone when DF traded Joe and Marv but I understand why he didn't). The only offer for Josh was Milwaukee for Udrih and Udoh which meant we wouldn't have the capspace to sign Millsap. As for the draft pick in that deal it was a a protected 1st pick so chances are we would not have gotten it and it would have become a 2nd. Sometimes the best trade is no trade.
Now we should have let Millsap walk for Tiago?
Tiago can hardly stay on the floor in limited minutes off the bench and you want him starting? So are you saying we should have paid DMC in lieu of Millsap? You saw how we looked when Millsap fouled out of the Bucks game.

see this is the problem you guys argue we would be worse THIS year, and the answer from Jamaal and i is, YES WE WOULD BE (potentially).

Let Millsap and DMC walk.

Promote Bazemore
Start AH at PF
Start TS
Sign a Vet Center to back up TS(Edy is 3rd string)

Spend 20 million on other options outside of Holliday. Maybe sign other options , other pieces, and DRAFT SOMEONE AT 15. Prob would have taken Portis, he gets playing time and we DEVELOP HIM (you know , the thing EVERYONE says the Hawks are good at doing).

That way, we get a year of looking at AH as the starting 4, to decide if hes worth the big contract. we get to develop whoever the 15th pick is. We get to see whatever the wings are we spent money on if they were wort hit.

IMO we are delaying the inevitable if we keep this same team together, a treadmill team with not a ton of upside.

[jayu70]

I guess you guys who wanted to trade Millsap, DMC and Korver and tank the season after Horford went out with his shoulder injury in Bud's first year. What's we do in that 2nd year? A little adversity and just blow it up and start over.
It's about shiny new unknown toys as opposed to knowing what you have and trying to improve upon it.
Have at it guys, I know where you stand so no use debating anymore.

[jayu70]

The problem is who would we be able to realistically persuade to come here, that will be worth losing Al over?

Good question. Keep in mind that Free Agency isn't the only way to acquire players or utilize cap space.

Our biggest acquisition last summer was a trade where we helped a good team conduct a salary dump.

We need to be doing that more often. I'd gladly take Marcin Gortat at $12 million, Kevin Martin @ $7 million.

Those types of deals signed under the old CBA amounts are complete steals in this new age.

uh. Gortat is signed through the 2018/2019 season topping out at $13.5 million and he's already 31 years. Martin gives you shooting and not much else and he's 32. So we've let Al walk for this...OK.

[Jamaaliver]

You argue that we let Josh walk for nothing, and we should have traded him (for the record I wanted him gone when DF traded Joe and Marv but I understand why he didn't). The only offer for Josh was Milwaukee for Udrih and Udoh which meant we wouldn't have the cap space to sign Millsap.

^This isn't true. And this isn't what I was referring to.

Teams have been calling the Atlanta Hawks all week to register trade interest in swingman Josh Smith, according to sources close to the situation.

But new Hawks general manager Danny Ferry apparently isn't ready to part with Smith right away.

Boston, Houston and the Los Angeles Lakers -- with Pau Gasol as the prime piece being offered in L.A.'s case -- have joined Orlando this week in making their interest in Smith known.

Summer 2012

^This is what I'm referring to.

After 2012, Smoove was coming off of the most productive period of his career picking up the slack as Horford and JJ missed time with injuries. But the team, despite Smoove approaching 20ppg & 10rpg, was still only a mediocre amalgamation.

Ferry decided immediately upon his hire to discard Marvin and JJ. But he then offered Josh a contract extension. After Josh turned it down, Ferry refused to trade him going into his final year under contract. Smoove then immediately tanked his value by being Smoove.

We got minimal returns for Marvin, JJ or Smoove. We're headed towards potentially the same with Horford and Teague. That's an entire starting five that could leave for almost nothing in return. Unacceptable.

[Jamaaliver]

Now we should have let Millsap walk for Tiago?
Tiago can hardly stay on the floor in limited minutes off the bench and you want him starting? So are you saying we should have paid DMC in lieu of Millsap? You saw how we looked when Millsap fouled out of the Bucks game.

And I also saw our season fall apart when we lost Horford to injury for a second time. Millsap put up consistent, All-Star caliber numbers...and the team still managed the worst record in years.

But this isn't an either or scenario.

With Tiago at center and Horford at PF, it leaves us $20 million in cap space to improve the whole roster.

That $20 million could be used in a number of directions.

uh. Gortat is signed through the 2018/2019 season topping out at $13.5 million and he's already 31 years. Martin gives you shooting and not much else and he's 32. So we've let Al walk for this...OK.

Again, I don't want AL to walk for nothing.

But if you can pay an employee $12 million less for the same production...that leaves you additional funds to fix your overall roster at other positions.

We could be looking at Horford taking up almost 1/3 of the salary cap to produce 15 points and 7 rebounds....

That's a terrifying thought. It's literally the Joe Johnson scenario all over again.

[jayu70]

You argue that we let Josh walk for nothing, and we should have traded him (for the record I wanted him gone when DF traded Joe and Marv but I understand why he didn't). The only offer for Josh was Milwaukee for Udrih and Udoh which meant we wouldn't have the cap space to sign Millsap.

This isn't true. And this isn't what I was referring to.

Teams have been calling the Atlanta Hawks all week to register trade interest in swingman Josh Smith, according to sources close to the situation.

And one of those teams, sources said, is the Orlando Magic, who know that Smith ranks as one of Dwight Howard's closest friends.

But new Hawks general manager Danny Ferry apparently isn't ready to part with Smith right away.

Boston, Houston and the Los Angeles Lakers -- with Pau Gasol as the prime piece being offered in L.A.'s case -- have joined Orlando this week in making their interest in Smith known.

Summer 2012

^This is what I'm referring to.

After 2012, Smoove was coming off of the most productive period of his career picking up the slack as Horford and JJ missed time with injuries. But the team, despite Smoove approaching 20 & 10, was still only a mediocre amalgamation.

Ferry decided immediately upon his hire to discard Marvin and JJ. he then offered Josh a contract extension. After Josh turned it down, Ferry refused to trade him going into his final year under contract. Smoove then immediately tanked his value by being Smoove.

We got minimal returns for Marvin, JJ or Smoove. We're headed towards potentially the same with Horford and Teague. That's an entire starting five that could leave for almost nothing in return. Unacceptable.

Do you know that the Hawks were also attempting to trade FOR Dwight Howard that same year or try to get him as a free agent in the off season, that is why DF kept Josh.

The Hawks' chances of trading for Dwight Howard either in the offseason or during the regular season could become a lot greater if the difficult trade deal the Orlando Magic and Brooklyn Nets are attempting isn't able to go through.
On Monday, there were reports that the deal could include as many as four teams and 14 players, some of whom would even have to renegotiate their contracts. If there is a situation where this deal falls through, the Hawks will be among the few teams still interested in dealing with the Howard saga.

Josh Robbins ✔@JoshuaBRobbins
Danny Ferry to @JeffSchultzAJC: “We had discussions with Orl about Dwight Howard. They were apprehensive to trade him within the division.”

Why shouldn't we also be reluctant to deal within the division. Joe went to Nets, Marvin out West.

The other 2012 deal was to LAL for Pau:

One such offer reported a few days ago involved Pau Gasol. On Sunday, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that the reason the deal fell apart was due to the pricetag the Lakers are putting on Pau Gasol.

In addition to Johnson, the Hawks have been open to moving forward Josh Smith though they've resisted offers so far. Apparently the Hawks balked at a potential deal with the Lakers for Pau Gasol because L.A. wanted another major piece to go along with Smith. That would leave the Hawks with less than six players under contract, less talent, and no short-term cap relief because of the $38 million and two years remaining on Gasol's contract

IIRC they wanted Teague and 1st round pick thrown in.

If you want to fault Ferry for trying to get Dwight that's fine but if he didn't he would be faulted for also not trying.

[Jamaaliver]

Do you know that the Hawks were also attempting to trade FOR Dwight Howard that same year or try to get him as a free agent in the off season, that is why DF kept Josh.

If you want to fault Ferry for trying to get Dwight that's fine but if he didn't he would be faulted for also not trying.

But this is EXACTLY what I fault Ferry for. Trying to build ROME in a day by piecing together a Super Team in Free Agency.

He sacrificed other opportunities in pursuit of a dream scenario where Dwight Howard and Chris Paul unite in ATL to bring in a title. And it never even came close to fruition.

This is literally the beef I have with Ferry. Instead of a steady approach and building a team that could grow for years, he tried to take a shortcut. And got us right back on the treadmill.

Sports is a results based business. And the results have been mixed. (Bad in 2014, GREAT in 2015, mediocre in 2016.)

I can't emphasize this enough, had we simply drafted well the last few years and had this same core, we'd be in a much more palatable situation.

If you have Gorgui Dieng or Rudy Gobert or Festus Ezeli on a rookie contract right now, you don't even need to consider paying Horford $25+ million for mediocre production.

The same way Teague is now expendable because of Dennis, the only first round pick we actually nailed.

[jayu70]

What Super Team? Dwight alone doesn't make you a Super Team.
Try to get a star the fan base is clamoring for since Dominique - bad bad Ferry.
You want steady approach, this is exactly what we are doing, we have vets (on short term deals) with our youngster. We have a player development program in place where you can see the merits of it. How is trading Millsap, Horford and Korver and Teague for picks and young players building slow and steady? That's a complete rebuild. You need vets to bring the young players along.
You are correct that our drafting could be better.

[Jamaaliver]

What Super Team? Dwight alone doesn't make you a Super Team.
Try to get a star the fan base is clamoring for since Dominique - bad bad Ferry.

I'm...at a loss.

It was understood that in summer 2013, Ferry was pursuing Chris Paul and Dwight Howard to ATL in Free Agency. That was Ferry's motivation in moving all salary as soon as he got the job. He kept Smoove, it's understood, in an attempt to help lure Dwight here. he also acquired Anthony Morrow and signed Lou Williams. All guys Howard had a close relationship with.

Read on Twitter

CP3 never even tested Free Agency, extending with LAC. Dwight was courted by a number of teams and eliminated Hawks as a suitor pretty early in the process.

This is fairly well known history in Hawks lore. We were even fined by the NBA for tampering when a sales rep mentioned a potential CP3 and D12 signing in a sales e-mail.

You want steady approach, this is exactly what we are doing, we have vets (on short term deals) with our youngster. We have a player development program in place where you can see the merits of it. How is trading Millsap, Horford and Korver and Teague for picks and young players building slow and steady? That's a complete rebuild. You need vets to bring the young players along.

Because, you can't over pay on older players who have nowhere else to go in their development. Case in point:

Khris Middleton playing for $16 million per year is perfect because he's entering his prime, is already (arguably) his team's best player, and will still be a phenomenal talent at contract's end.

Millsap for $20 million is less ideal because his window is shorter, he's at the end of his prime.

But neither player is a franchise player. Neither can singlehandedly carry a team into contention. We see MIL struggling this year with 24 year old Khris as the man. We saw it here with 28 year old Millsap as the man while Horford was injured. Even now, Millsap has been phenomenal, but we're still a middle of the pack team. Just like how Josh Smith was the man at 26, but the team was middle of the pack.

And because of Millsap's age, we likely won't see him IMPROVE by the end of his contract. Sadly, we're looking at a Korver like decline kicking in over the next couple of years.

[Jamaaliver]

How is trading Millsap, Horford and Korver and Teague for picks and young players building slow and steady? That's a complete rebuild. You need vets to bring the young players along.

You do need vets to produce. no question here. But you need the contribution of young, cheap, high-ceiling players to complement their efforts.

As the vets get old and expensive, they are moved for value and replaced by the younger players as they enter their primes. The perfect illustration for how this SHOULD work is Teague and Dennis.

Teague came up behind Mike Bibby, Kirk Hinrich and Jamal Crawford. As those guys left, he became a starter, got a raise, improved his play and became an All Star. During the last couple of years, Dennis has improved (on a cheap rookie contract). He is now ready for the role of starter. We move Teague for value (ideally at a position of need) and allow Schroder the opportunity to start for a few years.

Succession for every player. none of those guys are franchise cornerstones to build around, but all were productive starters at some point.

The issue with Horford and Millsap is cost. You can't tie up half your salary cap in two declining, mildly productive players. If Millsap or Horford could be counted on for 25 & 10, yeah...you keep and build around that phenomenal production. If they were the two best players on a true contender...maybe you keep them both together for a title run.

But tying up that much money (when cheaper alternatives have been available for years - Tiago, Festus Ezeli, Gobert, Gorgui Dieng) and just being mediocre...limits what moves your franchise can make moving forward.

Korver is an example of what happens when you commit to a player past his best years. You get a steep drop-off. And then have no reliable young, cheap replacement to take his spot.

If we re-sign Horford, keep Millsap and re-sign Teague...we'll become the Memphis Grizzlies in about three years.

A good team that a good run, but is now mired in mediocrity and locked in to a core not good enough to compete.

Taking a year off to reload is more ideal. If we'd taken the 2013 season as a rebuild year...we'd be better off today. When constructing a team, you can't (shouldn't) focus only on the short term at the expense of the long term.

[jayu70]

Sigh!!
Us being middle of the pack isn't because of Millsap, it's because Jeff or Al haven't elevated their games and played with any consistency.
It's not so much that he will improve is that he won't DECLINE on a long contract. You do know that Millsap is only signed for 1 more year right, (player opt in year 3) I think he will opt out. You are talking as if Millsap is signed for the next 5 years. (Yet you want Gortat(31) who is signed until 2018).
LMA is 30 (same as Millsap) and signed a big deal, is he scheduled for a decline as well. What about Chris Bosh?
Just like you cannot predict at what rate young players will develop you can't determined the rate at which 'older' players will decline.

You keep mentioning guys like Crowder and Middleton because of what they are today - at the time of the trade they both were 2nd round picks that were throw ins as part of a bigger deal, playing limited minutes with their former teams. They worked on their games which afforded them the opportunity to get paid.

[jayu70]

You are not reloading your team trading your ENTIRE starting lineup - it's a a complete BLOWUP and REBUILD. That's not taking a 1 year step back. You point to Miami as them taking a one year step back after LBJ left but they still had their core players and resigned them to a boat load of money. Beside they were trying to make the playoffs - injuries were why they were in the lottery. They traded for a 29 year old Dragic and then resigned him to a 5 year deal.
Call it what it is and we can agree.
With that I'm done.

Not really:
Comparing a soon to be 35 year old (2 months) Kyle Korver coming off 2 off season surgeries to a soon to be 31 year old Millsap is laughable.

[Jamaaliver]

Sigh!!
Us being middle of the pack isn't because of Millsap, it's because Jeff or Al haven't elevated their games and played with any consistency.

Jayu...we've been middle of the pack for 7 straight years. You're allowing 62 days of stellar basketball to change what we've been since 2008. Average.

We were middle of the pack with Smoove.

Now we're middle of the pack with Millsap.

You are talking as if Millsap is signed for the next 5 years. (Yet you want Gortat(31) who is signed until 2018).LMA is 30 (same as Millsap) and signed a big deal, is he scheduled for a decline as well. What about Chris Bosh? Just like you cannot predict at what rate young players will develop you can't determined the rate at which 'older' players will decline.

Decline is somewhat muted for [some] stars and superstars. Even Korver maintained a year longer of top notch production than I imagined. But the decline came all the same.


Would I sign up for 10 time All Star, 2 time NBA Champion, future Hall of Famer Chris Bosh at 31?

...probably. But even then it'd be with the understanding that the window is short. And he'd be a much worse player at the end of the contract than the beginning.

What we're facing with Millsap and Horford is the same as what we faced regarding Joe Johnson back in 2010. it sounds like you may not be old enough able to remember that period well. But the exact same arguments and debates were had 6 years ago.

Within a year or two, most would agree the team and the fans regretted committing the years and money for modest production.



Time will tell, my man. But I've seen this movie before. Committing to older players with modest production on huge contracts rarely works out well in the long run.


NOTE: Gortat as a spare piece on a contract half of a potential $25 million deal for Horford is just an idea. I wouldn't commit long term nor would I make him a centerpiece. I'm not against older players, I just acknowledge that by the end of that last contract...they will be more burden than asset.


Just Look at Kobe. Carmelo will be their soon. Deron Williams was there just last year. Even Pat Riley won't commit long-term big money to future Hall Of Famer Dwayne Wade.

If Millsap is playing as poorly as I fear by the end of the 2017 season...he'll gladly take another $20 million from Atlanta.

[jayu70]

Sigh!!
Us being middle of the pack isn't because of Millsap, it's because Jeff or Al haven't elevated their games and played with any consistency.

Jayu...we've been middle of the pack for 7 straight years. You're allowing 62 days of stellar basketball to change what we've been since 2008. Average.

We were middle of the pack with Smoove.

Now we're middle of the pack with Millsap.

You are talking as if Millsap is signed for the next 5 years. (Yet you want Gortat(31) who is signed until 2018).LMA is 30 (same as Millsap) and signed a big deal, is he scheduled for a decline as well. What about Chris Bosh? Just like you cannot predict at what rate young players will develop you can't determined the rate at which 'older' players will decline.

Decline is somewhat muted for [some] stars and superstars. Even Korver maintained a year longer of top notch production than I imagined. But the decline came all the same.


Would I sign up for 10 time All Star, 2 time NBA Champion, future Hall of Famer Chris Bosh at 31?

...probably. But even then it'd be with the understanding that the window is short. And he'd be a much worse player at the end of the contract than the beginning.

What we're facing with Millsap and Horford is the same as what we faced regarding Joe Johnson back in 2010. it sounds like you may not be old enough able to remember that period well. But the exact same arguments and debates were had 6 years ago.

Within a year or two, most would agree the team and the fans regretted committing the years and money for modest production.



Time will tell, my man. But I've seen this movie before. Committing to older players with modest production on huge contracts rarely works out well in the long run.


NOTE: Gortat as a spare piece on a contract half of a potential $25 million deal for Horford is just an idea. I wouldn't commit long term nor would I make him a centerpiece. I'm not against older players, I just acknowledge that by the end of that last contract...they will be more burden than asset.


Just Look at Kobe. Carmelo will be their soon. Deron Williams was there just last year. Even Pat Riley won't commit long-term big money to future Hall Of Famer Dwayne Wade.

If Millsap is playing as poorly as I fear by the end of the 2017 season...he'll gladly take another $20 million from Atlanta.

I'm old enough to remember 13 wins and 26 wins and before.
The difference with Joe is he was a paid Batman at the time when he was a Robin. Those are not the expectations for Millsap and Horford - big difference. The new TV deal is skewing the numbers historically and causing the term 'MAX' deal to cause panic and that must be taken into account 2 years from now with the expected rise to the CAP. Look how many players around the league a 'MAX' money players but not 'MAX' court players. You can't look at the raw MAX numbers in a vacuum, they have to be in relation to expected rising CAP in 2017. (If it doesn't rise as expected then a whole lot of teams a screwed ). You are also assuming that Horford will sign for a full 5 years, maybe he does what Sap did and would prefer a 2+1 deal, even with his injury history.

Kobe is 37 years, Melo is 31 (also coming off knee surgery). knock on wood - Millsap has had no injury requiring surgery.
Again comparing a 35 year old injured Kyle to a 32 year old Millsap is just........

[Jamaaliver]

Kobe is 37 years, Melo is 31 (also coming off knee surgery). knock on wood - Millsap has had no injury requiring surgery.
Again comparing a 35 year old injured Kyle to a 32 year old Millsap is just........

But if Millsap will be 34 by his final year under contract...it's comparable.

At this point, you simply have to ask...will I get us closer to a title. Paying huge dollar amounts of mediocre production becomes difficult to justify.

Also...Millsap is still just a Robin.

18 & 9 don't make you Superman, Batman, Flash, Wolverine...maybe Green Arrow. [SMILING FACE WITH SMILING EYES]


At this point, let's stick a pin in it. Recap 2017.

I hope to God we're not stuck in the middle yet again. Content with mediocrity...


Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums

[Jamaaliver]

You keep mentioning guys like Crowder and Middleton because of what they are today - at the time of the trade they both were 2nd round picks that were throw ins as part of a bigger deal, playing limited minutes with their former teams.

That's where 'savvy' part comes in...


Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums

[observer1995]

Recap 2017:

Your wanted retool happens after this season. It results in....more of nothing. Atlanta continuing to be the bridesmaid but not the bride, like they are in all sports. You give up on Atlanta sports being anything more than what they are.

[Jamaaliver]

Recap 2017:

Your wanted retool happens after this season. It results in....more of nothing. Atlanta continuing to be the bridesmaid but not the bride, like they are in all sports. You give up on Atlanta sports being anything more than what they are.

Then why even root for them? Why join a Hawks blog?

Why not just jump on the GSW bandwagon?

If no team here ever has a chance...what's the point?

[Jamaaliver]

•The Hawks aren’t entirely sure that Al Horford will re-sign in free agency this summer, and they’re making it a priority to re-sign fellow soon-to-be free agent Kent Bazemore, too, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports says in the latest edition of his “The Vertical” podcast (scroll ahead to 48-minute mark).

Podcast

[Jamaaliver]

A conflicting report from everything we've seen elsewhere:

Read on Twitter

I'm really starting to believe that not only does AL not get traded...but that he'll also get re-signed this summer.