Don't Be Hurtin' Lin - The Jeremy Lin Thread 2

BlackOutBuzz · Post #1801 » by **BlackOutBuzz** » Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:01 pm

bws94 wrote:
BlackOutBuzz wrote:The problem for Lin is the money divide between starter and backup. If a team believes he can come in and be their guy, as a starter, then there's no reason to believe he CAN'T net 8 figures annually given the current cap landscape. However most backups make, well, what Lin got paid this year. So it comes down to the starter/backup distinction.

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What about Lin as Ginobili-lite 6th man? That's kind of how he's used on the Hornets now. That's how he was used in Houston in the 2nd season and how other clubs may see him as well. So maybe it isn't starter or backup because Lin isn't really either one and is really a backup in terms of literally backing up Kemba and Batum when either is out. But he's more than a 2nd unit guy, he's not that exclusively.

Well the problem with that is, like Lin, Manu just took a discount. He's only making $2.9M this year after signing for the Room Exception in the offseason.

There are some sixth man types that make a good bit more, though. Andre Iguodala and Tyreke Evans come to mind. Both make about $10M and are older contracts, so they would've gotten quite a bit more had they signed them more recently.

Conversely, defending sixth man of the year Lou Williams just signed for about $7M annually, which is also around what Kevin Martin, Calderon, Stuckey, Corey Joseph, and even JJ Redick make (not a sixth man, but you get the point).

Then we start getting into MLE (about $5.4M) and lower range: Gerald Green, Jamal Crawford, Vince Carter, both Mavs and Bulls backup point guards (2 each), Livingston, JR Smith, Sefalosha, Mills, Barton, Brian Roberts (ok, bad example) hell...Jason Terry signed for the minimum.

I'm not putting Lin in any particular category per se, just saying it's tough to gauge what's fair.

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RealHusky · Post #1802 » by **RealHusky** » Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:18 pm

JDR720 wrote:
RealHusky wrote:
JDR720 wrote:no team will give lin 12-15 million.

he'll get around 8

Good thing you are not a NBA GM or Lin's agent. I was looking at Lin's value purely based on performance and he would be taking a huge discount at $8M per year.

well i cant possibly see his value go from 2 million to 15 million even with the cap going way up. he isn't some young guy you're paying based on potential, he is/will be a 28 year old PG who averages around 12/4/3 for his career.

feel free to name some teams that would pay him that much

I have said before the season Lin is worth every bit as much as a guy who is like Dragic. I said that before he even started playing for the Hornets. Lin is worth more because he is younger and also plays much better defense. Lin could easily starting for a team like Miami as well.

So far this season, here are the stats:

Dragic

GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
37 32.5 5.0-10.7 .466 0.9-2.8 .327 1.4-1.9 .722 3.3 5.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.5 12.3

PER rating of 13.75

Lin

GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
39 26.7 4.1-9.5 .427 1.0-3.1 .311 3.1-3.9 .778 3.3 3.0 0.7 0.7 2.3 1.8 12.2

Per rating of 15.15

So basically, Lin played less mins (6 mins less per game), scored about the same (12.2 vs. 12.3), similar in FG% (.466 vs. .427), 3P%.

Lin is better than Dragin in FT% (.778 vs. .722), better in blocks (0.7 vs. 0.2)

Dragic is better at assists per game (5.0 vs. 3.3) - please keep in mind Dragics plays PG full time and Lin only 1/3 of time. If Lin is the full time PG, Lin's assists I suspect would be much better than Dragic. I would expect Lin to average 6 to 8 assists a game if he is the full time PG. Also, Lin is great at PnR but Hornets really don't have a big that can do PnR effectively. By not having a PnR big, Lin's abilities are being undermined somewhat in that regard.

Dragic has slight better steals (1.0 vs. 0.7) playing 6 more mins. Again, I think Lin would easily beat that if he is playing 32.5 mins per game. Dragic has higher turnovers per game (2.5 vs. 1.8) but Lin probably will have similar turns if he is full time PG and playing 6 more mins.

Per also does not lie, Lin is 15.15 vs. Dragic's 13.75. Lin is simply more effective player when on the court.

Dragic is making $15.65M per year while Lin is making $2M. Looking at these numbers, how can anyone with a clue of basketball knowledge tell someone with a straight face that Lin is only worth $8M when Lin also is now a much better defender than Dragic and younger?

Post #1803 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:23 pm

You are doing a great job of arguing that Dragic is overpaid, not that Lin deserves what Dragic is getting.

RealHusky · Post #1804 » by **RealHusky** » Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:26 pm

yosemiteben wrote:You are doing a great job of arguing that Dragic is overpaid, not that Lin deserves what Dragic is getting.

He is not the only one with that salary. I don't have the time to look up stats of all other PGs, but $12M to $15M value to me is about right for Lin based on production.

It is funny some Hornets fans think Batum is a max player. Really?

uballer · Post #1805 » by **uballer** » Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:34 pm

RealHusky wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:You are doing a great job of arguing that Dragic is overpaid, not that Lin deserves what Dragic is getting.

He is not the only one with that salary. I don't have the time to look up stats of all other PGs, but $12M to $15M value to me is about right for Lin based on production.

It is funny some Hornets fans think Batum is a max player. Really?

It is indeed funny to think Batum should get 25m and Lin 7-8m.

bws94 · Post #1806 » by **bws94** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:03 am

yosemiteben wrote:You are doing a great job of arguing that Dragic is overpaid, not that Lin deserves what Dragic is getting.

Dragic had a great season before getting paid. Things haven't worked out for some reason in Miami. I think Dragic is better overall. However, Lin can still get better.

bws94 · Post #1807 » by **bws94** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:04 am

RealHusky wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:You are doing a great job of arguing that Dragic is overpaid, not that Lin deserves what Dragic is getting.

He is not the only one with that salary. I don't have the time to look up stats of all other PGs, but $12M to $15M value to me is about right for Lin based on production.

It is funny some Hornets fans think Batum is a max player. Really?

At one time in the season, he was playing close to one. He got injured, hasn't been the same since.

RealHusky · Post #1808 » by **RealHusky** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:08 am

bws94 wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:You are doing a great job of arguing that Dragic is overpaid, not that Lin deserves what Dragic is getting.

Dragic had a great season before getting paid. Things haven't worked out for some reason in Miami. I think Dragic is better overall. However, Lin can still get better.

I would trust Lin closing out games more than Dragic. I don't know how you can justify Dragic being better when he is less athletic than Lin and Lin is now a better defender. Dragic is not better lol.

Liver_Pooty · Post #1809 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:14 am

Lol at Lin getting paid 15 million a year

HornetJail · Post #1810 » by **HornetJail** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:36 am

I need to stay away from this thread. Based on what we've seen this season, giving Lin anything more than $8M is incomprehensible.

jtsmith · Post #1811 » by **jtsmith** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:39 am

No nba team will be giving lin 15m per year.

I'd like to see him in a 32/4 years kind of deal. He needs to settle down in one place.

tonman · Post #1812 » by **tonman** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:40 am

Liver_Pooty wrote:Lol at Lin getting paid 15 million a year

Lin ain't getting 15M a year (even though he made 15M (not cap) a couple of years a go) but Batum better not be making 25M or I will go Lol on that too.

BatumtheGlue · Post #1813 » by **BatumtheGlue** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:42 am

Batum 18-21
Lin 7-9
That will be ideal for me.

tonman · Post #1814 » by **tonman** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:43 am

MotorKeepsGoing wrote:I need to stay away from this thread. Based on what we've seen this season, giving Lin anything more than $8M is incomprehensible.

depends on role. if you're going to relegate him to 20 mpg or less, of course not. if you're going to play him upwards of 30 mpg and have him on the court during crunch time, uh you better think about it or make it his worthwhile.

he's already made 8M per year on a contract. that's low for a "starting PG" in the league. yes he's not the starting PG but you get the point. you only want a backup PG, well there's Brian Roberts.

TinmanZBoy · Post #1815 » by **TinmanZBoy** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:51 am

the fact is both Lin and Dragic both were UFA last summer, one got a 85millions/5 years, the other got 4.3millions/2 years...
batum will get paid this off season, it's not far fetched if Batum earn 2-3 times more than Lin next season.....
top guys in their position will get paid, much much more than middling guys... that's how UFA works
versatile two way wings will get paid big money, be it Batum or somebody else.... not so much for PGs though, which is the most stacked position in NBA...

bws94 · Post #1816 » by **bws94** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:53 am

RealHusky wrote:
bws94 wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:You are doing a great job of arguing that Dragic is overpaid, not that Lin deserves what Dragic is getting.

Dragic had a great season before getting paid. Things haven't worked out for some reason in Miami. I think Dragic is better overall. However, Lin can still get better.

I would trust Lin closing out games more than Dragic. I don't know how you can justify Dragic being better when he is less athletic than Lin and Lin is now a better defender. Dragic is not better lol.

What's to lol about? Dragic's big year he shot better. I think he shoots better. I think Dragic has more secure ball handling though neither Lin nor Dragic have great ball handling, he drives and finishes at the basket almost as well as Lin. Dragic is capable of putting up big 4th quarters just as well as Lin has and on and on. I like Lin a lot but I always try to be balanced in how I approach his game vs. other PGs.

I like Lin in the 4Q but I must say that this season he hasn't shown the Hornets fans what he's capable of. He had one OT against the Kings where he did, but he hasn't been Mr 4Q that much for the Hornets as he was for the Knicks or Rockets. I hope he steps it up and looks more to make plays and scores in the 4th sometime soon this season.

Braggins · Post #1817 » by **Braggins** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:56 am

Dragic was way better than Lin when he was at his peak form, which was not long ago at all.

KM6 · Post #1818 » by **KM6** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:09 am

Braggins wrote:Dragic was way better than Lin when he was at his peak form, which was not long ago at all.

Dragic's stats were way better than Lin's stats when he was playing for Phoenix which has a fast paced offense that suits his play-style, and he was the top scoring option and ball handler. While in the same year, Jeremy was playing for Houston where he was at best second fiddle to James Harden where he never handles the ball, and constantly being freezed out by teammates, getting yo-yo minutes because of McHale, and getting pulled off court whenever he gets hot shooting.

Jeremy had never had the opportunity the way Dragic had ever since Linsanity, so it's hard to compare them by stats alone. If Lin is lucky enough to get a starting gig somewhere and gets to control the ball and have the right team around him, then we can truly see how good he is or he is not. But his journey in the NBA had never been easy, so anything can happen.

Braggins · Post #1819 » by **Braggins** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:18 am

KM6 wrote:
Braggins wrote:Dragic was way better than Lin when he was at his peak form, which was not long ago at all.

Dragic's stats were way better than Lin's stats when he was playing for Phoenix which has a fast paced offense that suits his play-style, and he was the top scoring option and ball handler. While in the same year, Jeremy was playing for Houston where he was at best second fiddle to James Harden where he never handles the ball, and constantly being freezed out by teammates, getting yo-yo minutes because of McHale, and getting pulled off court whenever he gets hot shooting.

Jeremy had never had the opportunity the way Dragic had ever since Linsanity, so it's hard to compare them by stats alone. If Lin is lucky enough to get a starting gig somewhere and gets to control the ball and have the right team around him, then we can truly see how good he is or he is not. But his journey in the NBA had never been easy, so anything can happen.

RealHusky · Post #1820 » by **RealHusky** » Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:24 am

Braggins wrote:Dragic was way better than Lin when he was at his peak form, which was not long ago at all.

Pass along whatever you been smoking. Let's not based this discussion based on what kind of contract they both got last year. There are a ton of bias against Lin last year. Had Dragic played for the Lakers in the similar role, I don't expect his numbers to be any better than Lin.

Instead of your opinion, try watch them play sometimes. Also, look at the stats above this season for both players. Unless you don't give a crap about actual production, then you can believe whatever you like.

Lin deserved to be paid after this season. Hopefully it will be at Charlotte but I expect him to have other options if Hornets don't pay up and put money to someone like Batum who is at best a 3rd or 4th option on a good team. $12M would be fair with $8M being at a huge discount.