Hypothetical: Would you take the guaranteed #3 pick?

[Westbreezy]

Thought this would be a fun little experiment for Laker nation...

Let's say we finish this year with the standings the way they currently are which means we have the 2nd to worst record.

If we were somehow given the ability to either take the guaranteed #3 pick or to just play the lottery odds as they are, what would you do?

We have a 44.2% chance of losing our pick outright, and a 17.1% chance of getting the 3rd pick so basically there is a 38.7% chance that we get the 1st or 2nd pick. What do you do?

Spoiler:

I personally don't take the #3 pick option, I play the lottery with the odds as they are. IMO its a 2 player draft with Simmons and Ingram and ill take the odds that we hopefully land within the 55.8% chance of keeping our pick knowing the massive reward that comes with getting the #1 or #2. Having said that, I would absolutely hate having to do all this "pick watch" stuff next year if we lose the pick this year.

[Marionettetc]

Yep, wouldn't even think about it. It's basically a coin flip to even keep the pick.

Amassing any talent is the important thing here, not hoping we get the number 1 pick.

[LApwnd]

Im a gambler by nature and fact that everyone after simmons/ingram are mehhh to me, im taking the gamble for top 2 over guaranteed 3rd

[PKABOOICU]

give me the 3rd pick

[TylersLakers]

I'll take the 3rd. Dish it off for something proven or draft Jaylen Brown. Any day of the week.

[Dr Aki]

yes

[Mirjalovic]

We will win the lottery for sure.


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[Crooked-I]

I'll take the 3rd. Dish it off for something proven or draft Jaylen Brown. Any day of the week.

I like Kris Dunn if we don't resign Clarkson.

[aaron_gray]

I would forfeit the pick just to force Mitch and Byron to develop existing players and implement an effective system. The draft, the "big fish" free agent along with Kobe's retirement appear to exist as comprehensive solutions for all of the franchise's problems. Before anything else, Byron needs to establish a culture of responsibility (especially on defense) and encourage player development amongst the plethora of young players on the roster, many of whom will walk in free agency because the franchise cast them aside.

[Spens1]

would take that third pick and hope one of the top two teams decide they don't want Ingham or Simmons

Skal ain't terrible though, could do something next to Randle

[Sofa King]

Depends on who you have at #3, but I would roll the dice to try to get Ingram or Simmons.

[Lakers24gm]

Thing is with this draft is drafting Simmons kind of makes trading Randle a must right? Or do you keep both and try to play one at the 3? With Ingram he fits a need right away at the 3. So with the 3rd pick you can get someone with upside like Bender who is really starting to get some hype to watch out for him. Or Jaylen Brown who is athletic freak but needs more consistency. Hield will be a lottery pick you can book that shooting is whats in in the NBA and he can flat out shoot. So guaranteeing we get the 3rd pick atleast makes this season worth something but gambling for Simmons or Ingram could pay off bigger in long run such a tough decision.

[Pointgod]

Gamble on getting the first or second

[Speedlot]

3rd pick easily. I don't expect to keep the pick this year really.

[dockingsched]

Depends on who you have at #3, but I would roll the dice to try to get Ingram or Simmons.

Same, gotta risk for the game changer. i haven't the college ranks too closely but is it fair to say that simmons and ingram have separated themselves from the rest of the pack?

[Michael Lucky]

Problem is over the last couple years we've all seen our sure top 2 picks all of a sudden fall to 3. First it was Embiid then it was Okafor. Wouldn't be all that shocked if something similar somehow happened again.

2014 started out as Wiggins, Parker, Randle being the sure top 3 picks.
Middle of the season it then Parker, Wiggins, Exum in that order.
End of the season all of a sudden it was Embiid, Parker, then Wiggins with Exum closely in 4rth place.

Draft time comes and we have Wiggins, Parker, then Embiid being picked.

2015 Started with Okafor being the sure number 1 with Turner and Mudiay finisihing up the top 3.

Middle of the season you still had Okafor as the clear number 1 with Towns starting to make the top 3 with Mudiay.

Towards the end of the season you now had Towns, Okafor, Russell, then Mudiay finishing your top 4.

Draft time comes and Towns goes 1, Russell goes 2, Okafor 3, and Mudiay doesn't get picked until 6th.

[Mirjalovic]

Problem is over the last couple years we've all seen our sure top 2 picks all of a sudden fall to 3. First it was Embiid then it was Okafor. Wouldn't be all that shocked if something similar somehow happened again.

2014 started out as Wiggins, Parker, Randle being the sure top 3 picks.
Middle of the season it then Parker, Wiggins, Exum in that order.
End of the season all of a sudden it was Embiid, Parker, then Wiggins with Exum closely in 4rth place.

Draft time comes and we have Wiggins, Parker, then Embiid being picked.

2015 Started with Okafor being the sure number 1 with Turner and Mudiay finisihing up the top 3.

Middle of the season you still had Okafor as the clear number 1 with Towns starting to make the top 3 with Mudiay.

Towards the end of the season you now had Towns, Okafor, Russell, then Mudiay finishing your top 4.

Draft time comes and Towns goes 1, Russell goes 2, Okafor 3, and Mudiay doesn't get picked until 6th.

this year too, Labissere's stock already fall severely.

[Spens1]

Thing is with this draft is drafting Simmons kind of makes trading Randle a must right? Or do you keep both and try to play one at the 3? With Ingram he fits a need right away at the 3. So with the 3rd pick you can get someone with upside like Bender who is really starting to get some hype to watch out for him. Or Jaylen Brown who is athletic freak but needs more consistency. Hield will be a lottery pick you can book that shooting is whats in in the NBA and he can flat out shoot. So guaranteeing we get the 3rd pick atleast makes this season worth something but gambling for Simmons or Ingram could pay off bigger in long run such a tough decision.

Simmons most likely would be a 3 in the league, pretty sure for the boomers he has played Small Forward most of the time

[LApwnd]

I want Ingram.....might not be the better prospect now but his fit is much better with this core...1 yr younger than Simmons and already a respectable offensive game.....all of Simmons offensive highlights are him driving to the basket, no different than what we saw with Randle and look how much problem randle has once he gets into the paint.

[moonpie]

I would probably take the gurantee and go with Kris Dunn at 3.