Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II

[contract]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ethanjskolnick/status/691490190767067137[/tweet]

it's strange that he never announced his retirement.

I think long term fans deserve more and to not be strung along. If you ain't comin' back say you're done b*tch

It's his life. Maybe he wants to keep his options open.

[3ballbomber]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ethanjskolnick/status/691490190767067137[/tweet]

it's strange that he never announced his retirement.

I think long term fans deserve more and to not be strung along. If you ain't comin' back say you're done b*tch

It's his life. Maybe he wants to keep his options open.

you might be right. but i think it's safe to assume he's not coming back now at 40. so that b*tch a*s should just tell his fans

[goodboy]

"Allen for three..... BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANG!!!!"

[gom]

Looking at the schedules of the other team and our own, I have us in 8th place still at the all star game:

4. Chicago 30-22
5. Boston 29-26
6. Indiana 28-25
7. Detroit 28-26
8. Miami 27-26
9. Charlotte 26-27
10. New York 26-29
11. Washington 24-27
12. Orlando 23-29
13. Milwaukee 23-31

Chicago (25-19) (7 away, 1 home, 2 games with teams above 0.500, 1 bad team) (my guess = 4.75 = 5-3, 30-22) (30 games remaining)
(currently 25 home, 19 away, will be 26 home, 26 away, 15 home and 15 away remaining)

Lakers (a)
Clippers (a)
Utah (a) B2B
Sacramento (a)
Denver (a)
Minnesota (a) B2B
Charlotte (a)
Atlanta (h)

Boston (25-21) (4 away, 5 home games, 3 games with teams above 0.500, 0 bad team though ORL is 1-9 lately) (my guess=4.35 = 4-5, 29-26) (27 games remaining) (currently 22 home, 24 away) (will be 27 home, 28 away) (remaining 14 home, 13 away)

Denver (h)
Orlando (h)
Orlando (a)
NYK (a)
Detroit (h) B2B
Cleveland (a)
Sacramento (h)
Milwaukee (a)
Clippers (h) B2B

Detroit (24-21) (4 away, 5 home, 5 games with teams above 0.500, 2 bad teams) (my guess = 4.1 4-5, 28-26) (28 games remaining)
(currently 21 home, 24 away) (will be 26 home and 28 away) (remaining 15 home, 13 away)

Philadelphia (h)
Cleveland (h)
Toronto (a) B2B
Brooklyn (a)
Boston (a)
NYK (h) B2B
Pacers (a)
Toronto (h)
Denver (h)

Miami (24-21) (5 away, 3 home games, 5 games with teams above 0.500, 1 bad team that beat us already) (my guess = 3.05 -> 3-5, 27-26) (29 games remaining) (currently 24 home, 21 away) (will be 27 home, 26 away) (remaining 14 home, 15 away)

Brooklyn (a) B2B
Milwaukee (a)
Atlanta (h)
Houston (a)
Dallas (a) B2B
Charlotte (a)
Clippers (h)
San Antonio (h)


Indiana (23-21) (2 away games, 7 home games, 5 games with teams above 0.500, 2 bad teams) (my guess = 4.65 = 5-4, 28-25) (29 games remaining) (currently 19 home, 25 away) (will be 26 home, 27 away) (remaining 15 home, 14 away)

Clippers (h)
Atlanta (h)
Denver (h)
Cleveland (h)
Brooklyn (a)
Atlanta (a)
Detroit (h) B2B
Lakers (h)
Charlotte (h)

New York (22-24) (2 away, 7 home, 6 games with teams above 0.500, 1 bad team) (my guess = 4.15 = 4-5, 26-29) (27 games remaining)
(currently 22 home, 24 away) (will be 29 home, 26 away) (remaining 12 home, 15 away)

OKC (h)
Toronto (a)
Phoenix (h) B2B
Golden State (h)
Boston (h)
Detroit (a)
Memphis (h) B2B
Denver (h)
Washington (h)

Charlotte (22-23) (4 away, 4 home, 4 games with teams above 0.500, 1 bad team) (my guess = 3.6 rounds to 4, 4-4, 26-27) (29 games remaining) (currently 24 home, 21 away) (will be 28 home, 25 away) (remaining 13 home, 16 away)

Utah (a)
Portland (a)
Lakers (a)
Cleveland (h)
Miami (h)
Washington (h) BTB
Chicago (h)
Indiana (a)


Washington (20-22) (6 away, 3 home, 4 games with teams above 0.500, 1 bad team game) (my guess = 3.9. 4-5, 24-27) (31 games remaining) (currently 24 home, 18 away) (will be 27 home, 24 away) (remaining 14 home, 17 away)

Toronto (a)
Denver (h)
Houston (a)
OKC (a)
Golden State (h)
Philadelphia (h)
Charlotte (a) B2B
New York (a)
Milwaukee (a)


Orlando (20-23) (5 away, 4 home, 8 games with teams above 0.500, 0 bad teams) (my guess = 2.7=3: 3-6, 23-29) (30 games remaining)
(currently 23 home, 20 away) (will be 27 home, 25 away) (remaining 14 home, 16 away)

Milwaukee (a) B2B
Boston (a)
Boston (h)
San Antonio (a) B2B
OKC (a)
Clippers (h)
Atlanta (h)
Atlanta (a) B2B
San Antonio (h)



Milwaukee (19-27) (4 away, 4 home, 3 games with teams above 0.500, 0 bad teams) (my guess = 3.75 = 4: 4-4, 23-31) (28 games remaining) (currently 19 home, 27 away) (will be 23 home, 31 away) (remaining 18 home, 10 away)

Orlando (h)
Memphis (a)
Miami (h) B2B
Sacramento (a)
Portland (a) B2B
Utah (a)
Boston (h)
Washington (h)


Instead of calculating the result of each game, I divided the games into types of opponents and games, summed the game of each group and multiplied by the corresponding percentages to arrive at a guess. I used different percentages for each team after examining their home/away and against 0.500 versus sub 0.500.

For example, I used this for Chicago:

Terrible Teams (less than 0.333) = Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Lakers, Phoenix, & Wolves. (h=90%, a=75%)
Teams below 0.500 (as of today) (h=80%, a=65%)
Teams above 0.500 (as of today) (h=65%, a=50%)
Great Teams (above 0.666) = OKC, GS, San Antonio, Cleveland (h=50%, a=30%)
B2B removes 25% of a chance from the afflicted team (a) or 15% if at home.

I used this for Miami:

Terrible Teams (less than 0.333) = Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Lakers, Phoenix, & Wolves. (h=80%, a=55%)
Teams below 0.500 (as of today) (h=65%, a=50%)
Teams above 0.500 (as of today) (h=50%, a=35%)
Great Teams (above 0.666) = OKC, GS, San Antonio, Cleveland (h=30%, a=20%)
B2B removes 25% of a chance from the afflicted team (a), or 15% for (h).

Injuries were not taken into account.

[Chalm Down]

Ah, I missed these posts. Good work, Gom

[gom]

Ah, I missed these posts. Good work, Gom

Here's hoping I'm wrong and we can beat the projected 3-5. Let's start by beating Brooklyn tonight!

[gom]

Road Wins minus Home Losses

Cleveland: 14-3 = 11
Toronto: 14-6 = 8
Atlanta: 12-7 = 5
Indiana: 10-6 = 4
Boston: 13-10 = 3
Detrioit: 10-7 = 3
Chicago: 9-9 = 0
Miami: 9-9 = 0
New York: 9-9 = 0
Milwaukee: 7-7 = 0
Charlotte: 6-8 = -2
Orlando: 8-11 = -3
Washington: 10-14 = -4
Brooklyn: 4-17 = -13
Philadelphia: 3-17 = -14

Golden State: 20-0 = 20
San Antonio: 14-0 = 14
Oklahoma City: 12-5 = 7
Clippers: 13-7 = 6
Dallas: 12-8 = 4
Memphis: 9-7 = 2
Houston: 10-11 = -1
Portland: 9-10 = -1
Utah: 7-10 = -3
Sacramento: 8-12 = -4
New Orleans: 5-10 = -5
Denver: 8-15 = -7
Phoenix: 4-13 = -9
Minnesota: 7-17 = -10
Lakers: 4-15 = -11

[TroubleS0me]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SynergySST/status/691781248566583296[/tweet]

[TroubleS0me]

Ah, I missed these posts. Good work, Gom

Here's hoping I'm wrong and we can beat the projected 3-5. Let's start by beating Brooklyn tonight!

we gotta get that Bucks game too & @ least a split between the Rockets & Mavs(1-1). The Hawks game & Hornets is 50/50. & maybe the clippers
&
damn the Magic got a tougher schedule than us.

[3ballbomber]

Until we get our full squad back we are going to struggle. Don't let that Bulls win fool you, we will still be very much inconsistent even w/ a healthy team. I'd be completely surprised if we have made a 100% turn around.

[heat4life]

Until we get our full squad back we are going to struggle. Don't let that Bulls win fool you, we will still be very much inconsistent even w/ a healthy team. I'd be completely surprised if we have made a 100% turn around.

Nothing to be fooled about. Miami beat a good Bulls team on the road missing two starters. Give the team credit.

[J-House]

I'm aware that Winslow's offensive game is not there yet but there are times where he could have a lane to the basket but just chooses to pass it off. If his shot isn't dropping he should drive in and Atleast try to draw a foul like he did in SL.

[KingDavid]

Until we get our full squad back we are going to struggle. Don't let that Bulls win fool you, we will still be very much inconsistent even w/ a healthy team. I'd be completely surprised if we have made a 100% turn around.

Nothing to be fooled about. Miami beat a good Bulls team on the road missing two starters. Give the team credit.

Bulls were missing two starters as well. Rose got injured in game. Dunleavy is their sf, iirc. Noah is out for the season, hinrich is out with injury. And their backup pg is out too.

They got just as nasty an injury bug as us, if not worse.

[heat4life]

Until we get our full squad back we are going to struggle. Don't let that Bulls win fool you, we will still be very much inconsistent even w/ a healthy team. I'd be completely surprised if we have made a 100% turn around.

Nothing to be fooled about. Miami beat a good Bulls team on the road missing two starters. Give the team credit.

Bulls were missing two starters as well. Rose got injured in game. Dunleavy is their sf, iirc. Noah is out for the season, hinrich is out with injury. And their backup pg is out too.

They got just as nasty an injury bug as us, if not worse.

Noah has been as useful to them as McRoberts has been to us. I'll take the Rose 1/2 a game as significant for them but missing Dragic and Whiteside has more impact to the HEAT than Dunleavy Jr does to them. Plus Wade put a great performance with two bad shoulders, Green has a bruised knee, Deng has an eye injury and we can go on. These are not excuses at all but do not understate what we've been dealing with over the last week or two. This team IS really banged up and starting to get a bit healthy. They went to Chicago limping a bit, fought a close contest and won it like good teams do. They deserve some credit. Let's see if it translates into more wins as they get healthy moving forward.

[KingDavid]

Nothing to be fooled about. Miami beat a good Bulls team on the road missing two starters. Give the team credit.

Bulls were missing two starters as well. Rose got injured in game. Dunleavy is their sf, iirc. Noah is out for the season, hinrich is out with injury. And their backup pg is out too.

They got just as nasty an injury bug as us, if not worse.

Noah has been as useful to them as McRoberts has been to us. I'll take the Rose 1/2 a game as significant for them but missing Dragic and Whiteside has more impact to the HEAT than Dunleavy Jr does to them. Plus Wade put a great performance with two bad shoulders, Green has a bruised knee, Deng has an eye injury and we can go on. These are not excuses at all but do not understate what we've been dealing with over the last week or two. This team IS really banged up and starting to get a bit healthy. They went to Chicago limping a bit, fought a close contest and won it like good teams do. They deserve some credit. Let's see if it translates into more wins as they get healthy moving forward.

I didn't mean mention their injuries with the intention of undermining our win. I just wanted to mention that they're hurt too.

I should have prefaced my statement giving us praise for how Winslow locked up Jimmy Butler and had a pretty damn solid stat line 8/9/4/2. His court vision is underrated. I see a lot of flashes of his offensive iq. The cuts, the passing, etc. Once his handles improve...yikes.

I'm not a believer in our defense being elite, but if we lock teams down like we did last night on a more consistent basis, I'll buy in.

[heat4life]

Bulls were missing two starters as well. Rose got injured in game. Dunleavy is their sf, iirc. Noah is out for the season, hinrich is out with injury. And their backup pg is out too.

They got just as nasty an injury bug as us, if not worse.

Noah has been as useful to them as McRoberts has been to us. I'll take the Rose 1/2 a game as significant for them but missing Dragic and Whiteside has more impact to the HEAT than Dunleavy Jr does to them. Plus Wade put a great performance with two bad shoulders, Green has a bruised knee, Deng has an eye injury and we can go on. These are not excuses at all but do not understate what we've been dealing with over the last week or two. This team IS really banged up and starting to get a bit healthy. They went to Chicago limping a bit, fought a close contest and won it like good teams do. They deserve some credit. Let's see if it translates into more wins as they get healthy moving forward.

I didn't mean mention their injuries with the intention of undermining our win. I just wanted to mention that they're hurt too.

I should have prefaced my statement giving us praise for how Winslow locked up Jimmy Butler and had a pretty damn solid stat line 8/9/4/2. His court vision is underrated. I see a lot of flashes of his offensive iq. The cuts, the passing, etc. Once his handles improve...yikes.

I'm not a believer in our defense being elite, but if we lock teams down like we did last night on a more consistent basis, I'll buy in.

I agree, I don't bite that we are elite defensively either but we could be if only our vets - namely Wade, Green and Deng - can sustain that same energy every game while on that end of the court. I just think that it is so difficult for this team to score that it is almost draining and it reflects on their defensive effort. We are "boom-or-bust" on offense, not reliable. Spo recognizes this and he mentioned as much a few weeks ago (after our win against Dallas maybe?); when we are dialed-in on defense, we have a big chance to beat anybody.

EDIT: Also, let me add that our reliance on our youth has been detrimental at times and not their fault at all. Our vets - other than Wade, Bosh and Dragic lately - have been inconsistent. Gerald Green should be our go-to guy off the bench and Deng with the starters. We should not be expecting Winslow to play like a vet night in and night out (although he does his best to make you believe he is). Same with McRoberts as our main rotation big to lessen Hassan's dependency when he is struggling. Chalmers was supposed to be our main backcourt backup, we threw TJ in there.

I am not saying that Winslow, Whiteside or TJ don't deserve it or are not capable but they are young, inexperienced and it was expected they would struggle along the way. Our veteran depth was a bit deceiving with Amare, Haslem and Birdman being useless for most of the season.

[RexBoyWonder]

I'm aware that Winslow's offensive game is not there yet but there are times where he could have a lane to the basket but just chooses to pass it off. If his shot isn't dropping he should drive in and Atleast try to draw a foul like he did in SL.

I bet He's being told to play carful and avoid mistakes. Which is usually sound advice for a rook, But with a high IQ guy like him and with our need to replace Deng, I wish he was given more freedom to play aggressively and live with some expected mistakes.

[3ballbomber]

Until we get our full squad back we are going to struggle. Don't let that Bulls win fool you, we will still be very much inconsistent even w/ a healthy team. I'd be completely surprised if we have made a 100% turn around.

Nothing to be fooled about. Miami beat a good Bulls team on the road missing two starters. Give the team credit.

I'm not looking for surprising single wins, in what ever situation. I'm looking for long term consistency wich we have not achieved even when we were fully healthy.

We had nothing to lose in the Bulls game and no real pressure to win w/ 2 of our starters missing. Have we suddenly grown nuts when teams start showing fight? are we no longer going to lay dead? Has Spo suddenly found a way to inspire & motivate the team? We still relied heavily on Wade, wich was one of our issues to begin with.

As i've stated.......i'd be really surprised if we've made 100% turn around. We still have lingering issues that may still come back to bite us in the a*s. Fans usually change their thoughts with each win or loss - i'm not overreacting to anything right now until i see consistency in this team. No way i get excited w/ one win out of our last 5. We've won 3 in our last 10

[BIRDMAN BIRDMAN]

This quote from Wade sums up my thoughts perfectly

“This is me playing healthy,” Wade said. “Every time I do something, I can hit a free throw, and it’s vintage nowadays.”

Sick of people saying Vintage Wade this, vintage that actin' like he's Grizzlies Iverson or something. That ain't no vintage **** Wade, that's just Dwyane **** Wade

[heat4life]

Until we get our full squad back we are going to struggle. Don't let that Bulls win fool you, we will still be very much inconsistent even w/ a healthy team. I'd be completely surprised if we have made a 100% turn around.

Nothing to be fooled about. Miami beat a good Bulls team on the road missing two starters. Give the team credit.

I'm not looking for surprising single wins, in what ever situation. I'm looking for long term consistency wich we have not achieved even when we were fully healthy.

We had nothing to lose in the Bulls game and no real pressure to win w/ 2 of our starters missing. Have we suddenly grown nuts when teams start showing fight? are we no longer going to lay dead? Has Spo suddenly found a way to inspire & motivate the team? We still relied heavily on Wade, wich was one of our issues to begin with.

As i've stated.......i'd be really surprised if we've made 100% turn around. We still have lingering issues that may still come back to bite us in the a*s. Fans usually change their thoughts with each win or loss - i'm not overreacting to anything right now until i see consistency in this team. No way i get excited w/ one win out of our last 5. We've won 3 in our last 10

We won 3 out of 10 mostly because of injuries. This team is not consistent and I agree but they are not as bad as they have been over the last two weeks when the injury bug hit. Your point is understandable to a degree but I just won't discredit a good win because of what they've been experiencing lately. Miami has come through before with games like the one against the Bulls. The inconsistencies have been against the Nets of the world and it was actually encouraging that they didn't lay down and lost last night even though the showing was not perfect. Still, we got a road win. Let's see if we can build on this.