1/23 Hawks at Suns

[Jamaaliver]

Because he's trying to value 3pt shooting. The problem is they don't have the talent to do that.

Bud either needs to adjust his scheme based on the strength of his personnel...

Or just get new personnel.

[MaceCase]

A jumper =/= a FGA unless dunks and layups are now being considered as jumpers of which Shaq then had the sweetest stroke in league history.

I don't know what this means. Who said anything about a jumper?

You brought up a really good point, but your premise was based on misinformation.

Horford needs to limit his range to the midrange game, which he's so good at, and he also needs to start attacking the basket. Him focusing so much on mastering the 3 has ruined him. It's Josh Smith all over again.

To be fair to Al, what I don't know is if this is all CMB dealings. Maybe he's made Horford do this. It's part of his "system". So what I don't know is if Al is camping out doing 3s because that is what he's been told is his job now.

BINGO!!!


It was poor strategy to have Horford play AWAY from his strength in the mid-range.

Al has been a guy who has averaged close to 70% of his offense off of jumpers dating back to Woody. I think some just had the unsubstantiated hope he'd play better at PF, were gravely disappointed but instead of accepting that Al is who is, decided to throw the blame at Bud.

Al is taking 3 pt shots at an amazing rate, he never did that last year or any year. So you can quote 70% numbers all you want. 15 footers aren't the same as 25 footers.

Moving the most efficient scorer on this team further away from the basket is dumb. Moving the team's best big man away from the paint is dumb.

But Al at least rebounded much better at the PF spot....but all that jump shooting from deep is counter productive.

So there's a whole string of posts specifically discussing Al taking jumpers, including me,.......but you want to jump in and say that it's not a discussion on jumpers....Alright.

Contextually challenged fail aside, it's still disingenuous that you're attempting to prop up his career percentage of attempts outside of 15 feet.

Under Mike Woodson, dating to 9 years ago, Al took 23%, 23%, and 21% of his shots outside of 15ft.

But let's look at it for the 6 seasons after that though:

Larry Drew-
10-11: 41%
11-12*: 31% (11 games)
12-13: 37%
Mike Budenholzer
13-14*: 41% (29 games)
14-15: 42%
15-16**: 49% (45 games)

This is what they call a "trend" in the business. As with most players their first 3 years in the league tend to be a larger outlier for their careers than the rest of it but Al has been pretty steady for the past half decade+. His 3PA have been steadily decreasing by the month so he is likely to end the season right in that 40-42% range again, like always. Perhaps slightly higher

but

This is the great change that Bud is imposing on him?

Alright, stats aside (though I will bring up more) if we're going by eye test from WATCHING THE GAMES then I see a soft player when it comes to Al. An ever softer player of which I had already thought couldn't get any softer. It's mentioned multiple times in this thread how often Al would get into the paint and kick it out to the perimeter and you know why? Because he's soft, he doesn't want the contact as evidenced by a somehow even more abysmal FT rate lower than his already abysmal FT rate. As also evidenced by how him taking threes is allegedly affecting his ability to rebound at a career worst on the defensive end. He got blocked all of 36 times last year, this year he's been blocked 25 times already, he's playing timid in the paint. On a boxout in the closing seconds he's playing patty cake with Tyson Chandler (a guy he outweighs) while Chandler decided to get a forearm into him and clear him out effortlessly for a putback. Talk about Bud making him the new Pero? Pero had over 2x the 3 point attempt rate that Al currently has yet more than 3x the FT rate. Al is in danger of doubling up his total free throw attempts in 3 point attempts, but it has to be Bud, right? So easy to see, right?

But that's mostly viewing the stats to confirm what my eyes are seeing though, which is why I often try to avoid using that bias. People should try the same with trying to paint Bud as the boogie man.

[PandaKidd]

I think you just misunderstood what we are saying. DONT TAKE THAT THE WRONG WAY. Take a breath.

Under Mike Woodson, dating to 9 years ago, Al took 23%, 23%, and 21% of his shots outside of 15ft.

But let's look at it for the 6 seasons after that though:

Larry Drew-
10-11: 41%
11-12*: 31% (11 games)
12-13: 37%
Mike Budenholzer
13-14*: 41% (29 games)
14-15: 42%
15-16**: 49% (45 games)

So........you would agree that his shots outside 15ft have gone up? correct? Now we feel its part of the "scheme" of Budenholzer. you feel its not?

132 3pt Attempts THIS YEAR vs 36 ALL OF LAST YEAR. Just, yes or no, do you feel that is affecting his play? Cause i look at his heat chart, his shot chart, and its so much more spread out this year than last. I totally get you, Al was NEVER "A LOW POST PLAYER" but he at least attempted low post moves. Now, I cant remember the last time i saw him post up. I have to believe its scheme, Bud, and like you said:

This is the great change that Bud is imposing on him?

Do you think Al started bombing away from 3pt range on his own decision?

Alright, stats aside (though I will bring up more) if we're going by eye test from WATCHING THE GAMES then I see a soft player when it comes to Al. An ever softer player of which I had already thought couldn't get any softer. It's mentioned multiple times in this thread how often Al would get into the paint and kick it out to the perimeter and you know why? Because he's soft, he doesn't want the contact as evidenced by a somehow even more abysmal FT rate lower than his already abysmal FT rate. As also evidenced by how him taking threes is allegedly affecting his ability to rebound at a career worst on the defensive end. He got blocked all of 36 times last year, this year he's been blocked 25 times already, he's playing timid in the paint. On a boxout in the closing seconds he's playing patty cake with Tyson Chandler (a guy he outweighs) while Chandler decided to get a forearm into him and clear him out effortlessly for a putback. Talk about Bud making him the new Pero? Pero had over 2x the 3 point attempt rate that Al currently has yet more than 3x the FT rate.

THANK YOU. See Mase, sometimes I think you avoid taking a position like this, youd rather pick other people apart or youre too scared to voice something this opinionated for fear Jamaal might dig it up 4 years from now. This is great, you ACTUALLY took a position, and im not being facetious. You believe that Al is SOFT, and that AL doesnt WANT to play inside. That is something we can discuss further.

Al is in danger of doubling up his total free throw attempts in 3 point attempts, but it has to be Bud, right? So easy to see, right?

Do you think Bud is happy with Horford, or just accepts who he is?

[Rip2137]

This is a....weird argument.

The vast majority of A Horfords scoring has been either assist at the basket or jumpers. He has no post game. He has never had a post game.

That 15 foot number is arbitrary. 10 foot shots are jumpers more often than not. Al can't post up most small forwards in the NBA. He has no real back to the basket game and i don't get why people still try to say otherwise.

What he has been is a elite midrange shooter. This year he has been a average three point shooter, taking himself away from his elite positioning.

As for this being on Bud. You notice how every once in while Al refuses to take the three? That's the coach pulling the plug on Als freedom on the court. Bud didn't move Al, al worked on his three and wanted to add it to the offense and bud has obliged. But every once in a while bud pulls the plug. Same with Dennis.

[PandaKidd]

Ive had season tickets for 6 years now. I know Al has never been that post player who backs guys down. BUT, he USED to have the ATTACK the basket mentality, he used to shot fake and drive occasionally. Yes, HE WOULD call for the ball on the block occasionally. Im not asking him to be Demarcus Cousins or Dwight Howard.

Hes shooting triple (through 45 games) from 3 than he did last season. There HAS to be an issue with that.

[Jamaaliver]

Yeah, it's hard to believe that AL Horford has suddenly gone rogue and is taking a full third of his shot attempts from three point range without the coach's approval.

AL was always limited, but he's been consistent for years in what he does best.

Our Center becoming 3-pt happy more in line with Bud's philosophy of every player on the court being a threat to help stretch the court.

I was critical for years of Josh doing this same thing. I am now critical of AL doing it. The difference, is we know Josh has done it against the will of multiple coaches.

That seems out of character of AL. Leads me to believe the coach and player are complicit in this added wrinkle to his game.

[Jamaaliver]

Doing some digging, sounds as if both player and coach are responsible:

It started the day we finished playing, It's a point of emphasis that I made. I want to be better. If you work on things and you give effort, Coach (Mike Budenholzer) is going to support it. I have gotten a chance to work on those shots. I never want to shoot a shot if I haven't worked on it. I feel comfortable with it. I understand that I have to be near the paint, (working) pick-and-rolls, working around the basket, but I want to be able to have the ability that if I need to shoot those shots, to take them.

"It helps our team, The ability to have your 5-man stretch out and every now and then shoot a shot like that, it keeps the defense honest and stretches the floor.

Through the summer and through 12 days of camp, Al has shown a comfort level with all threes, including the ones above the break, I think he just has a confidence and a belief that he can make them. We want him to take them when he is open. I think that was probably a big hurdle, just to feel good and feel confident shooting threes...

Here

[PandaKidd]

So hes averaging 13 Shot Attempts a game.....

3 of his attempts are 3pt shots (up from .5 last year)
10 of his attempts are from inside the arc
Majority of his shots are from AT THE RIM

So, if you look at LAST season, you can see he attempted 410 shots (the majority) from 16ft>3pt range. Is it safe to assume since we are slightly past the halfway point we can double the numbers and see what they look like?

If this pace holds true (which i understand it could not) he will be :
AT RIM :335 vs 360
3>10ft :244 vs 162
10>16ft: 142 vs 110
16>3pt: 410 vs 276
3PT: 45 vs 264

What this tells me , and call me crazy, is that hes moving out further from the basket. Hes shooting LESS high percentage shots in favor of 3 pointers. His 16ft and in numbers are WAY down except for the "at the rim" but his midrange jumper hes not depending on as much and shoot far more from 3?

Is this a trend you want your Center taking? Asking a serious question. I understand the type of player he is, Im just saying to me, the numbers for the last 2 years points to him to try playing more like LAST year and dominating the midrange and improving on THAT. The numbers dont really support him shooting from 3pt range right? I mean his not shooting a terrible percentage. Again hes not a GUARD. For a team that is so deficient in rebounding, taking the biggest player you have furhter away from the basket cant be a smart move can it?

[Jamaaliver]

The first year he watched how the team played and the spacing of the offense and the opportunities in the offense started to plant the notion that this could be helpful to us. Last year, he started to do it some. Now, he spent the whole summer working on it and gaining confidence. I think he’s there...

We feel good when Al is getting his shots, where he is getting them and how much space he is getting...

Obviously, he didn’t make them the other night in Charlotte but he and I visited about it. They are good shots. We want him to shoot them. He looks very confident and comfortable. It’s a way for us to be harder to guard. We still want to get to the basket. We still want to collapse the defense and get to the free-throw line. When you have more space, you can do that.

It’s been a process. All summer I’ve worked on it some but now that the season is here, now that we have games, you get a better feel for it. I think the biggest thing for me is coach is confident in allowing me to do it. I feel good shooting it so it’s something I’ll keep working on.

If you look at our offense, there are times when (the opposition) is giving me that shot, that top-of-the-key 3. Then there are some other times when I have to read (the defense) and make sure I pick-and-pop or that I just roll. It’s just making sure I have balance.

Here


In my estimation, Horford has lost that balance. Yielding too often to the temptation of long jumpers. Whether 20 feet or 24 feet...he needs to operate closer to the basket.

[PandaKidd]

We still want to get to the basket. We still want to collapse the defense and get to the free-throw line. When you have more space, you can do that.

When your guards play this poor, and you have no slasher, who is "driving to the basket" ?? I dont get it. Even PM plays from the perimeter but he attacks the rim. I havent looked, is PM averaging more FTA than AH? hes got to be

[Jamaaliver]

When your guards play this poor, and you have no slasher, who is "driving to the basket" ?? I dont get it. Even PM plays from the perimeter but he attacks the rim. I havent looked, is PM averaging more FTA than AH? hes got to be

Bingo. We need a competent rim attacker. Last season, Demarre became a specialist at attacking the hoop without the ball on backdoor cuts. He made a living on those types of buckets in the playoffs.

Bazemore and THJ have yet to duplicate that part of Carroll's game. Ironically, we had a scoring guard with bad defense who could create his own offense and draw fouls at an elite level. Lou Williams had his flaws and clearly wasn't a proper fit in this system. But his skillset fits into our current needs. THJ has essentially been a less capable, less accomplished version of Lou.

Millsap is indeed shooting almost 4 times as many FTAs per game. 5.8 for Paul vs only 1.6 FTAs for AL.

The last two seasons AL has migrated further away from the hoop for an increasing number of shot attempts and as a result, he's attempted the fewest number of FTAs of his career. He set a career low last season. And it's been even worse this year.

Moving AL further out from the hoops has been counter-productive. For the team and the player.

[Rip2137]

Its also throwing Kyle off rhythm. With Al put further he is having yo cut off curls alot more. If you notice Kyle is shooting more threes from the standstill versus off the move this year. Honestly i think the bad far outweighs the good with Al floating to the perimeter.

ALTHOUGH, with all that said, if our two point guards could consistently not take turns (or together) playing like crap, we would have at least 8 more wins right now. The Al thing is a problem, but not THE problem.

[MaceCase]

So........you would agree that his shots outside 15ft have gone up? correct? Now we feel its part of the "scheme" of Budenholzer. you feel its not?

I would agree that a ~7% fluctuation in his game over a 45 games sample is not nearly half as dramatic as you and Jaamal are attempting to frame it as. Dropping totals because they look bigger or using outliers to skew the percentages are nice but despite adding an entirely new aspect to his game Al still looks to be within his typical trend.

Do you think Bud is happy with Horford, or just accepts who he is?

As opposed to what though? Do you think George Karl is happy with DeMarcus Cousins? You're All Star center wants to tweak his game within reason while still fitting into your system, you're not exactly going to bench him and for what? Splitter? Musky?

[PandaKidd]

But its not an outlier really. Like I said if you take 45 games or half a season and look at his shots....

He will have taken
50 less shots 10-16ft
200ish less shots from 16-3pt line
200ish times MORE shots from 3pt land.

I totally understand things cna change but like you said in the business, this is called a trend, is it not?

He's shooting LESS from closer to the basket. He is shooting drastically more from outside the 3pt range.

As far as my happy comment, I think it's pretty evident that Budenholzer prefers a shooting big and Al has obliged.

[Jamaaliver]

But its not an outlier really. Like I said if you take 45 games or half a season and look at his shots....

I totally understand things can change but like you said in the business, this is called a trend, is it not?

I think it's a lost cause, PK. I have no doubt at some point we'll hear AL and Bud discuss it further and add more clarity.

We might need to simply need to stick a pin in it and re-visit.

[PandaKidd]

Will revisit later

[Jamaaliver]

Regarding our debate on how much moving Horford away from the basket has hurt him under Bud...

AJC mentions that Hawks are missing open shots at a much higher rate this season than last. Same thing that happened in the post-season last year.

Mike Cunningham asserts one way to correct this decline is to decrease Horford's dependence on three point attempts, a growing sentiment among Hawks observers:

The Hawks also could abandon their attempts to make Al Horford a 3-point shooter. Horford has been among the best mid-range shooters for most of his career and still is, but now he’s launching 4.6 three-point attempts per 100 possessions and making just 33 percent. Better that those shots come from within his sweet spots at 15 to 20 feet.

Those are two obvious ways I see that the Hawks might become a better offensive team with their current personnel. I’m sure there are others...

In the end, though, the Hawks just have to make more open shots.

Here