Is a 27-20 record exactly what we should have expected?

[Jamaaliver]

So...this team is now 27-20 on the year. This is a somewhat significant number.

Last season, we had a wonderful, historic run in December and January, going 33-2 over that 62 day span.

...the rest of the season was less impressive as we went 27-20 during the other 3 and half months.

27-20....

This is the realistic standard set for this roster. A win% of about .574.

That 33-2 run was clearly an outlier. As it was never done in NBA History and seems unlikely to occur again....for this squad, anyway.

What we are today is the standard for this collection of players.

In Bud's first season, BEFORE AL WENT DOWN WITH A PEC INJURY, we were 16-13. Which works out to a win % of roughly .552. Which falls in this same range.

Again...this seems to be the standard. This is the range at which we have played for most of Bud's tenure when at full strength.


Questions:

Do we now believe this is more or less the cap on this squad? 48-50 wins and a series win in the post-season?

Is this acceptable moving forward? Are we comfortable being a team that wins close to 50 games every year with a modest post-season showing coming at the end?

What can we do to jump up to the next level?

Should we commit to the core of this team knowing we might not ever be much more? Does it matter that this team's window is maybe 3 years before Horford, Korver and Millsap will all be past their primes?

Conclusions?
Predictions?
Concerns?

[Jamaaliver]

We neglected to compile a mid-season review thread for the team. So I'll include some of the more prominent ones here, just to gain some clarity on outside opinion of our squad:

from ESPN Insider (via Peachtree Hoops)

Tom Haberstroh had this to say about an "underachieving" Hawks team to this point:

But the reality is the Hawks have underachieved so far. No one reasonably expected another 60-win season, but the Hawks are on target to finish a startling 13 wins off their 2014-15 total. Amazingly, their 47 percent rebound rate gives them the worst rebounding outfit since the 2013-14 Lakers squad that went 27-55. That has to change if they want to hang with a monster Cleveland team.

Here

[Jamaaliver]

from Associated Press (via USA Today)

...they've struggled to maintain the form that made them one of the NBA's most surprising teams last season. The Hawks reached the midway point of the season at 24-17 — nine wins worse than their mark at this time in 2015.

"The word that I think's been coming up is a little consistency, or lack of consistency," coach Mike Budenholzer said.

Without Korver providing the sort of outside threat that requires constant attention, defenses are able to sag off the arc, clog up the passing lanes and focus on disrupting the point guard duo of Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder.

Outside of Korver, transition defense has been a problem at times. The Hawks are giving up 100.6 points a game, a jump from last year's 97.1...More subtly, the Hawks are going through a period of adjustment, as they try to deal with opponents who take them much more seriously and have painstakingly dissected the style that made Atlanta so unstoppable not so long ago.

Hawkshoop midseason recap
Soaring Down South Midseason Review

[observer1995]

I bet you’re going to get your wish of the Hawks going to rebuild mode, and you’re going to find out after that that doing so will change……..nothing in this sorry sports state.

A look into the future after the Hawks blow it up after this season:

3 seasons from now:

The Hawks go 51-31, and lose in 6 in the 2nd round, to continue what is their norm. They have one semi-star player, but that's it. After 3 seasons of similar play, they blow it up again. And 3 seasons after that.

This time the rebuild fails, and they go 28-54. Fans start to realize that nobody in this state is ever going to become a legit power in sports (as while Georgia football has broken their SEC Championship winning drought, they have also not sniffed a national title and the Braves rebuild flopped horribly) and start giving up on hoping for more than being good, but not great.

[Jamaaliver]

I bet you’re going to get your wish of the Hawks going to rebuild mode, and you’re going to find out after that that doing so will change……..nothing in this sorry sports state.

[ATL Boy]

as while Georgia football has broken their SEC Championship winning drought, they have also not sniffed a national title and the Braves rebuild flopped horribly) and start giving up on hoping for more than being good, but not great.

Lol at the prospect of a team winning the SEC Championship but not sniffing the national title game.

[ATL Boy]

As for the actual discussion, there is certainly room to improve for this team. If Korver gets back to shooting 3's in the mid 40% range (hopefully yesterday's game against the Clips was a sign of things to come) then this team gets dangerous.

I will keep saying that the main difference between last year and this year is Korver's drop-off. Last year, teams had to focus so much on Korver that it opened everything up. Then you take into account how galvanizing it is to the rest of the team when Korver's hitting his 3's, while at the same time demoralizing for the opponents. If Korver stays a 36% 3 point shooter, however, then this team's potential is capped significantly.

[observer1995]

as while Georgia football has broken their SEC Championship winning drought, they have also not sniffed a national title and the Braves rebuild flopped horribly) and start giving up on hoping for more than being good, but not great.

Lol at the prospect of a team winning the SEC Championship but not sniffing the national title game.

I’m not joking. Georgia will win the SECCG again soon but not play in a national title game. I’ll bump this when it happens. They will either be 10-2 when they do or 11-1 and lose in the semifinal (I don’t consider being in a semifinal a national title game).

[jayu70]

As for the actual discussion, there is certainly room to improve for this team. If Korver gets back to shooting 3's in the mid 40% range (hopefully yesterday's game against the Clips was a sign of things to come) then this team gets dangerous.

I will keep saying that the main difference between last year and this year is Korver's drop-off. Last year, teams had to focus so much on Korver that it opened everything up. Then you take into account how galvanizing it is to the rest of the team when Korver's hitting his 3's, while at the same time demoralizing for the opponents. If Korver stays a 36% 3 point shooter, however, then this team's potential is capped significantly.

Good News: Korver is changing his shooting stroke back.

Korver says part of the issue is that he was trying to change his shot mechanic.

"My challenge was is that I was trying to – and I don't want to over-talk about it – I was trying to develop a different shot, kind of," Korver said after the Hawks' Jan. 9 win over Chicago.

"It went the wrong way on me," Korver added with an exasperated laugh. "I can't even explain the frustration and everything. So I have scratched that and I'm going back to what I've done the last few years."

For the season, Korver has made 87 of 228 attempts (38.2 percent).

http://www.nba.com/hawks/features/korver-scraps-new-shooting-motion-effort-find-old-form

I also think the inconsistency of Jeff and Al are huge. Millsap has been the only one who has played with any level of consistently. With Al and Jeff you just never know.

[ATL Boy]

as while Georgia football has broken their SEC Championship winning drought, they have also not sniffed a national title and the Braves rebuild flopped horribly) and start giving up on hoping for more than being good, but not great.

Lol at the prospect of a team winning the SEC Championship but not sniffing the national title game.

I’m not joking. Georgia will win the SECCG again soon but not play in a national title game. I’ll bump this when it happens. They will either be 10-2 when they do or 11-1 and lose in the semifinal (I don’t consider being in a semifinal a national title game).

Your words were "they have also not sniffed the national title game." Getting to the semi-final would most definitely be sniffing the national title game.

[Jamaaliver]

Mark Bradley of AJC's thoughts:

[The Hawks] aren’t the same...but it’s not just the record. It’s how they look. There’s none of that soaring stuff that moved us to wax rhapsodic during their undefeated January 2015. They’re no longer the team that carried pace-and-space to idyllic extremes. They’re just another halfway decent club.

That’s not to say they should pull a Braves and quit on the season. They’re leading the Southeast Division. They're also now 15-8 at home. They were 35-6 last season. [And] here’s the thing: Everything the Hawks do now is a grind. They lack the separation gear of last winter.

This is a new year without DeMarre Carroll and Danny Ferry, with Horford turning into a 3-point shooter and [thus] becoming a substandard rebounder.

The die was cast on this season when Carroll signed with Toronto, and everything since has been a tepid variation on last season’s stirring theme.

Just a pretty good team slogging through its year after.

HERE


Bradley again from the previous week:

[The Hawks] were never going to go 17-0 in a month again, but this January has been tepid. They’re 5-5 having played one game against a team currently above .500.

Paul Millsap and Al Horford: Still really good. DeMarre Carroll: Still gone to Toronto. Kyle Korver: Not as good and, at 34, won’t be again. As for Jeff Teague …

His points are down by 1.4 per game. Assists are down by 1.5. Shooting percentage has slipped from 46.0 to 41.5. If you’re into advanced analytics, his PER is 16.62, down from 20.64 last season and his lowest rating since 2011-2012, his first season as a starter.


The Hawks miss Carroll. (At the moment, so do the Raptors; he’s recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery.) Tiago Splitter has been of marginal use. (The Hawks rank last among NBA teams in rebound percentage and differential.)

The post-Ferry personnel decisions of Budenholzer and Wes Wilcox have been uninspiring. A deft move now could change everything. The trade deadline is Feb. 18.

Here

[New_Hawks_Era]

Lol at the prospect of a team winning the SEC Championship but not sniffing the national title game.

I’m not joking. Georgia will win the SECCG again soon but not play in a national title game. I’ll bump this when it happens. They will either be 10-2 when they do or 11-1 and lose in the semifinal (I don’t consider being in a semifinal a national title game).

Your words were "they have also not sniffed the national title game." Getting to the semi-final would most definitely be sniffing the national title game.

Thank you sir and the world isn't in full apocalypse like the observer seems to have drawn out. Good grief!

[Yungsta404]

Yes, outside of that hot run we have been fairly mediocre. That playoff run last year showed everything I needed to know about this team. We are nothing more than a mid-tier playoff team that can beat the lower tier playoff teams, some mid-tier teams depending on the match up but will get exposed by the elites.

I know everyone wants a rebuild (including me) but its not happening. We arent bad enough to consider a blow up. We have new owners who just invested alot of money in this franchise and from a business perspective its better to remain a 4-5th seedish team every year than to blow it up and potentially be a team like the Kings or the Pistons and suck for the next 5-10 years before you are a playoff team again

I dont think anyone ever intentionally blows up a consistent playoff team.

[Jamaaliver]

True story...I don't support a full blown rebuild. As Yungsta mentions, we're still a competitive team.

What I want is to maximize the assets we have in pursuit of a stronger, (slightly) younger team with a longer window.

I've said it before, had we simply drafted better and hit on guys like Festus, Gobert, R Hood, Portis...our current situation would be more amenable. But the fact we have little young talent and assets that NOW have limited trade value is what's so infuriating.

A strong GM with foresight should have been able to see we still lacked the elite talent necessary to be a perennial contender. Simply trying to run out a lineup identical to the team that was successful last year was a mistake.

Tanking, IMO, would be an overcorrection.

To me, it becomes necessary to trade Millsap and Teague. Re-sign Horford. (But not to a max).

Proceed from there.

[observer1995]

To me, it becomes necessary to trade Millsap and Teague. Re-sign Horford. (But not to a max).

Horford is very likely walking if he’s not offered the max according to what little we’ve seen on FA. I think the likelihood he’s not in Atlanta next season is rising.

[azuresou1]

I think this team needs a shakeup. Like Mark Bradley notes, it's evident in how this team looks. This is a decent team that's just showing up for work.

Teague looks checked out and is probably just waiting to get traded. Al is probably looking forward to free agency. They seem like stand up guys and they're still doing what they need to do on the court, but they're not playing with that passion and confidence like last season. Honestly it's just human nature and I don't blame them.

At the current rate without a trade I think we probably get bounced out in the second round; we could even lose to a young and hungry upstart team like the Pistons or Celtics.

[azuresou1]

As for what I would do:

- I'd find a buyer for Teague. Ideally we get a starting caliber SF like Hayward back, but more realistically we get a good young prospect and an okay young-ish bench guy.
- Bring in a vocal leader, even if it's a bench vet. We need active leadership on this team. Everyone on this team is too damn nice. I WANNA SEE SOME NASTY
- Consolidate some depth. Guys like Shelvin Mack and Mike Muscala could be seeing more minutes on other teams, and we'd be better off with more talent
- Alternately, have more fluid rotations. If someone's not performing, replace them with someone else. We have such a versatile team, and last season during our streak, EVERYONE was seeing minutes.

[New_Hawks_Era]

Yeah what happened with Muscula? His playing time decrease has been large, I've noticed that Coach Bud is a strange fruit when it comes to delving out minutes to his roster.

[MaceCase]

Teague looks checked out and is probably just waiting to get traded. Al is probably looking forward to free agency. They seem like stand up guys and they're still doing what they need to do on the court, but they're not playing with that passion and confidence like last season. Honestly it's just human nature and I don't blame them.

- Bring in a vocal leader, even if it's a bench vet. We need active leadership on this team. Everyone on this team is too damn nice. I WANNA SEE SOME NASTY

Team lost a lot of heart when DeMarre and even Pero left. Al is a paper tiger, Jeffrey you can't tell if he even likes playing basketball, and then Dennis and Kenneth are young guys you put in the "they're too stupid to be scared" category as they are more reckless than fearless. That leaves Paul who is ferocious on the court but quiet off of it, Kyle whose body can't keep up with his mouth, and laid back Thabo.

Given that these are the type of descriptions that we've seen through three regimes now, I'm of the mind to move on from the members who've been present through most of them as it doesn't matter if you're good or bad, a stink will still stick to you if you're around it long enough.

[Geaux_Hawks]

Simply put, we need to get younger and more talented. I would send Teague to Utah for the Burke boys and whatever else. Alec could really develop into a solid player. Trey would be a solid backup.

Horford is a tricky situation, but someone would be willing to give up some decent value for him. I feel like Portland may be willing to compete in playoffs by giving us Crabbe, vonleh, and a pick.

Regardless, Teague and Horford just need to moved. Tiago can step into the starting lineup and I'm sure we will get some kind of wing to give minutes to.