Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[nate33]

I don't see any reason to keep Grunfeld until the trade deadline. What would be the point? I don't want him making decisions for the team anymore. Tommy Sheppard can manage things until a full-time replacement is found.

It seems to me that EG has been pretty good at extracting value out of outgoing veterans (Jamison, A.Miller, Hinrich) so I don't really have too much of a problem with EG handling those types of transactions. It's the one thing he's actually pretty good at. But if Tommy Sheppard can manage it, that's fine too.

We're not talking about anything elaborate. We're just exchanging competent expiring-contract veterans like Sessions, Dudley and Nene for the best picks and/or rookie contract players we can get in return.

[milellie111]

Dudley has been as good as advertised:

http://www.pressboxdc.com/2016/01/27/jared-dudley-has-been-as-advertised-for-wizards

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Dudley has been as good as advertised:

http://www.pressboxdc.com/2016/01/27/jared-dudley-has-been-as-advertised-for-wizards

Hey, milly old pal. Welcome back. Like sunshine on a cloudy day. Gravy on chicken fried steak. Whipped cream and a cherry on an ice cream sunday after church.

[Kanyewest]

I was talking with one of my friends at work this week about Ernie's draft history with the Wizards and we were questioning how many of his draft picks have ever earned a contract extension with the Wizards and we could only come up with two names (given that Beal, Porter, etc still could be re-signed in the future they don't count) and that realization was deeply disappointing.

The two guys were Wall who if he didn't earn an extension it would have been an even bigger problem since he was the first pick and Blatche who was then amnestied.

Its pathetic that with over a decade of drafting for this team and the only drafting successes he's had are top three picks. Maybe Oubre will change that but how the f*** we haven't at least gotten one other long-term starter in the draft is beyond me.

Obviously Wittman needs to go but (as we've been saying for five years) it doesn't matter who coaches this team as long as Ernie remains the GM our chances of real success are extremely limited.

Technically, he extended Young and Seraphin to their qualifying offers.

[AFM]

At this point, the only way EG gets fired is if he's caught in an embarrassing scandal. To that effect, whoever is interested in helping out should PM me. I've got this idea, that involves, binoculars, a high speed photography lens, a craigslist gay hooker, and EG's home address. Don't want to say much else.

[TGW]

Dudley has been as good as advertised:

http://www.pressboxdc.com/2016/01/27/jared-dudley-has-been-as-advertised-for-wizards

Hey, milly old pal. Welcome back. Like sunshine on a cloudy day. Gravy on chicken fried steak. Whipped cream and a cherry on an ice cream sunday after church.

LOL he actually posted a fluff piece on Jared Dudley written by a monumental network writer. He's really grasping for straws at this point.

[FAH1223]

Someone had to say it. Enough.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BulletsForever/status/693102299456081920[/tweet]

It's been time since 2009.

I was talking with one of my friends at work this week about Ernie's draft history with the Wizards and we were questioning how many of his draft picks have ever earned a contract extension with the Wizards and we could only come up with two names (given that Beal, Porter, etc still could be re-signed in the future they don't count) and that realization was deeply disappointing.

The two guys were Wall who if he didn't earn an extension it would have been an even bigger problem since he was the first pick and Blatche who was then amnestied.

Its pathetic that with over a decade of drafting for this team and the only drafting successes he's had are top three picks. Maybe Oubre will change that but how the f*** we haven't at least gotten one other long-term starter in the draft is beyond me.

Obviously Wittman needs to go but (as we've been saying for five years) it doesn't matter who coaches this team as long as Ernie remains the GM our chances of real success are extremely limited.

He had 2 first round picks in 2011 and drafted the two guys who were busts. While so many useful players were around.

[payitforward]

Sorry -- I missed this while traveling (2 weeks in the Southwest -- recommended).

...Since your curious as to why I didn't ask - I'll ask - Do you think Philly has done things the right way?

After diLeo made disastrous moves (e.g. gave up a lot for Andrew Bynum), Hinkie was hired as GM in May 2013. The sixers had few assets. They traded Holiday to NO for Noel and a top-5 protected R1 pick the next year. I'd call that an outstanding move, wouldn't you? At #11 they got MC-W who became RotY.

They swung for the fences the following year w/ Embid. A risky move, but for an over the top talent. Hasn't played yet. W/ the NO pick they got Dario Saric who hasn't come over yet. 21 and very highly rated. W/ 5 (!) R2 picks, they stashed 2 more young Euros. Ok, it's weird! But, if Embid *does* pan out, and Saric comes over (not to mention the other 2 guys) we may look back on this as a great draft.

Last year they got Okafor and Richaun Holmes, and (again) they stashed 3 gifted young Euros: Hernangomez, Gudaitis & Mitrovic. Ok, it's more like playing the stock market than managing an NBA team! But, it's still an open question what happens when they start using some of those assets to build the roster. So, I'd say the answer to your question is "I don't know." I have no idea whether Philly has done or is doing things "the right way."

Fwiw, I think Orlando is a decent roster but certainly not even close to a championship contender.

Agreed, decent -- and very young, with 8 guys who are 23 or younger (which gives them a good shot to keep improving) -- but far from a title contender.

Considering how bad they've been for years, I'm not at all impressed with what they've done.

?? In the shortened 2011-12 season, they went 37-29: the equivalent of a 45 win regular season. It was the impending Dwight Howard nightmare that made them start rebuilding the next off season -- two years after we began our rebuild. I'd say Orlando has done pretty well in a little more than 3 years.

They started by firing Otis Smith, the GM who traded for Gilbert Arenas among other things! Their new GM (a Presti assistant previously) managed a trade that cost them very little and brought them Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Moe Harkless plus some picks. Then, in the 2012 draft, w/ Sullinger and Fournier still available, he picked Nicholson. I think most people would agree that was a mistake. But, late in R2 he nabbed Kyle O'Quinn, a terrific pick. In 2013, he picked Oladipo. The team didn't have its high R2 pick. In 2014 he picked Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton. Again the high R2 pick had been traded away by the previous regime. In 2015 he chose Hezonja. It'll take a while, obviously, to see how that turns out.

In the meantime, he's acquired a couple of other promising young guys at low cost -- Fournier & Napier. Vucevic & Harris are signed at good value contracts.

From blowing up the entire team to being 1/2 game behind us in 3 1/2 seasons, in other words. Not great maybe -- but not bad either. OTOH they've gone 1-9 in their last 10 games, so who knows what's going on there.

Re BPA, with players picked after one year of college basketball, are you looking for someone you project to be the BPA in 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, sometime after their first contract? I think Portis will be the BPA between him and Oubre in their first 3 years, but in their 4th year it could easily start changing, and Oubre becomes the better player long-term. I don't know if that falls under calling Portis the BPA or Oubre the BPA - as far as how people generally use the term.

BPA is not an analytical term, it's a term of judgement -- and it's used to contrast w/ picking "for need." So, whatever a GM thinks is the right way to consider the factors, that's up to him. I.e. if you pick BPA, you pick whoever you think that is. On balance. All things considered.

I'm perfectly happy with us picking Oubre, btw -- as I've expressed many times starting the moment we made the move. The fact that Portis turned out to drop doesn't affect that. We couldn't have known that would happen, and for that matter maybe if we didn't trade w/ Atlanta someone else would have and then taken Portis. We might have been choosing between Dekker and Grant who knows?

[Ruzious]

PIF, using the Wizards as the standard for rating Orlando's success... Seth Meyers had a good segment on SNL called "Really?"

Basically, I think our differences at looking at these teams are in team building. I think you need to build teams rather than collect assets. Orlando is built with no interior defense. They have players up front like Vucevic and Harris who are talented, but they're not going to win anything of substance combining those types of players, imo. And that's with an excellent defensive coach in Scott Skiles.

[Earth2Ted]

It's getting close to asking WHEN not IF both EG and Wittman are going. We might need a date prediction thread. Just sayin.

Gotta be right after seasons end and we are out of the playoffs. That's when he fired McPhee and Oates iirc. Which seems to be working out pretty good for the caps btw.

[payitforward]

IRC, many liked the Singleton pick at the time. Reading through our own 2011 draft thread, people were right about Vesley but few wanted Leonard given that he shot under 30% from 3.

Singleton was rated pretty highly- ahead of Kawai Leonard by Draftexpress. http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2011/. Obviously it turned out to be a poor pick but these picks are easier to make once the results are in.

That being said, while every GM makes mistakes in the draft, there haven't been really any good picks by EG, I think his best mid to late first round pick was Trevor Booker. Unless Oubre turns out to be a stud, the Wizards would be wise to go in a different direction given EG's draft history.

Kawai Leonard wouldn't be half as good as he is if he wasn't coached up by the Spurs coaching staff. I wholeheartedly believe that.

I read stuff like this all the time. Or the exact opposite -- "the only reason whatsisname looks so good is because he's getting time on the court, a chance to do his stuff, on account of he's on a bad team."

The two statements are equivalent. What's so hard about just understanding that a player plays well because he's a good player? Has the talent, puts in the time, learns the skills, is motivated to be the best he can be. Duh.

[payitforward]

PIF, using the Wizards as the standard for rating Orlando's success... Seth Meyers had a good segment on SNL called "Really?"

Basically, I think our differences at looking at these teams are in team building. I think you need to build teams rather than collect assets. Orlando is built with no interior defense. They have players up front like Vucevic and Harris who are talented, but they're not going to win anything of substance combining those types of players, imo. And that's with an excellent defensive coach in Scott Skiles.

-- you are right, I did set the bar a little low didn't I? In the end, tho, we'll get to see how good a job they've done -- and anyway, who cares, right? We both want to see *us* do a good job. Saying goodbye to Ernie would be the place to start!

[closg00]

Ernie keeps his job and here's why. Ted wants Ernie to make the KD play, when that fails, he trusts Ernie to deploy their plan B. This is Ted's comfort zone.

[milellie111]

Ernie keeps his job and here's why. Ted wants Ernie to make the KD play, when that fails, he trusts Ernie to deploy their plan B. This is Ted's comfort zone.

This is a playoff team even without Durant when healthy. We've gotten some bad breaks with both Beal and Porter missing time. Not many teams can withstand a major blow of two starters going out. Sure, getting a superstar like Durant would be great, but I'm pretty sure management will still be focused and pleased with the development of the current young core of players. It's not even the middle of the season and the Wizards are only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot.

[nuposse04]

Ernie keeps his job and here's why. Ted wants Ernie to make the KD play, when that fails, he trusts Ernie to deploy their plan B. This is Ted's comfort zone.

This is a playoff team even without Durant when healthy. We've gotten some bad breaks with both Beal and Porter missing time. Not many teams can withstand a major blow of two starters going out. Sure, getting a superstar like Durant would be great, but I'm pretty sure management will still be focused and pleased with the development of the current young core of players. It's not even the middle of the season and the Wizards are only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot.

Well you've kinda outed your inability to perform elementary math with this statement. >.>

[milellie111]

Ernie keeps his job and here's why. Ted wants Ernie to make the KD play, when that fails, he trusts Ernie to deploy their plan B. This is Ted's comfort zone.

This is a playoff team even without Durant when healthy. We've gotten some bad breaks with both Beal and Porter missing time. Not many teams can withstand a major blow of two starters going out. Sure, getting a superstar like Durant would be great, but I'm pretty sure management will still be focused and pleased with the development of the current young core of players. It's not even the middle of the season and the Wizards are only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot.

Well you've kinda outed your inability to perform elementary math with this statement. >.>

To clarify, I meant to say past the all star break.

[payitforward]

This is a playoff team even without Durant when healthy. We've gotten some bad breaks with both Beal and Porter missing time. Not many teams can withstand a major blow of two starters going out. Sure, getting a superstar like Durant would be great, but I'm pretty sure management will still be focused and pleased with the development of the current young core of players. It's not even the middle of the season and the Wizards are only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot.

Well you've kinda outed your inability to perform elementary math with this statement. >.>

To clarify, I meant to say past the all star break.

To clarify further, you don't know what you're talking about. What's our record in games in which Porter and Beal started?

"Not many teams can withstand a major blow of" having Ernie Grunfeld as their GM. In fact, no team I can think of.

[payitforward]

Responding to LyricalRico in the Alan Anderson thread, I asked him something that really should be asked here:

Tell me something, if there is no especially impressive "late season run," and if we don't make the playoffs -- do you think it's time for Ernie to go?

I ask, respectfully, because two years ago you did write that if he didn't make the playoffs his term as our GM should end. And we made the playoffs 2 years in a row.

Is that enough? I.e. sort of like our team of 10 years ago, make a couple of playoff appearances then fade?

Not wanting to argue here -- just interested in your take, given you have been Ernie's most stalwart supporter on this Board.

[LyricalRico]

Responding to LyricalRico in the Alan Anderson thread, I asked him something that really should be asked here:

Tell me something, if there is no especially impressive "late season run," and if we don't make the playoffs -- do you think it's time for Ernie to go?

I ask, respectfully, because two years ago you did write that if he didn't make the playoffs his term as our GM should end. And we made the playoffs 2 years in a row.

Is that enough? I.e. sort of like our team of 10 years ago, make a couple of playoff appearances then fade?

Not wanting to argue here -- just interested in your take, given you have been Ernie's most stalwart supporter on this Board.

I just was about to put my quote/repsonse here, too. Great minds, and all that. Anyway, here goes:

Certainly a fair question, and one I have been thinking about. Missing the playoffs after the steps they've made the last two seasons would be a huge disappointment. And even squeaking into the playoffs to be first round fodder, while better than nothing, would still fall well short of expectations. But I actually don't think it hinges as much on playoffs as it does winning the Durant sweepstakes. Because if we miss the playoffs this year but end up with Durant over the summer, then the overall plan was still a success IMO.

However, if they regress as a team AND they don't get Durant this summer, then a multi-year team building plan has failed and there should be consequences. (I posted in another thread that the OKC cap situation and the new 1+1 superstar contract trend could push the Durant sweepstakes to 2017, but Ernie put all his eggs in the 2016 basket so IMO we have to judge him by that.) Plus if you're going to make a change, the amount of cap space the team would have this summer makes the timing ideal for taking things in a new direction.

So if we wind up this summer with no Durant and a team that has taken a step back, even I couldn't justify not going with a fresh start in the front office. So KD, do the right thing!

[closg00]

Hands11 hasn't left your side Rico, he's got Ernie's back.
http://www.bulletsforever.com/2016/1/25/10826852/grade-the-health-of-the-wizards-franchise