Official HEAT 2015-16 Regular Season Thread - Vol. II

3ballbomber · Post #341 » by **3ballbomber** » Thu Feb 4, 2016 11:39 pm

QUIZ wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/jonathantjarks/status/695248154782904321[/tweet]

My own observation, out of our 4 man core of Wade, Bosh, Whiteside, and Dragic.

Bosh and Dragic seem to fit together and have positive net ratings when sharing the floor... Wade and Whiteside on the other hand...

Tough decisions ahead.

Replace Wade, Deng, and Whiteside with Ryan Anderson, Ariza, and JJ Redick.

How much better would we be as a team?

The question you have to ask yourself, is the duo of Bosh and Goran good enough to build around.

The front offices thinks so considering the fact that those two are the only guys with long term big money deals while Wade and Hassan are in contract years.

I think it's pretty clear who we're commited to and who we're not.

I think he is drunk :beer:

Considering how well we've been playing since all the adjustments it was never about pieces not fitting....it was in fact the system that was hurting the players and the team. It was essentially a coaching issue. Spo has adjusted not only w/ the quicker offense but players have adjusted within it and the results speak for themselves.

I refuse to ever believe that players such as Dragic, Wade, Bosh, Deng cannot play together as a unit. Those are 4 absolute selfless players!

We're only starting to really find our way. We were in absolute shambles and disarray prior to the adjustments. how about we continue to stay patient and see how much we can develop as a squad w/ the changes we've made. I personally love what i'm seeing out there simply because something had to change and changes were indeed made. Hopefully Spo can continue to make more adjustments to fine tune the team. We aren't out of the woods just yet but it's a great start.

As much as i have criticized Spo i gotta give him props for acknowledging, making the adjustments and then seeing the results. We can only go up from here i believe.

Post #342 » by **QUIZ** » Fri Feb 5, 2016 12:28 am

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DwyaneWade/status/695343106170880000[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DwyaneWade/status/695345034443423748[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DwyaneWade/status/695345328824778752[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DwyaneWade/status/695348698717376512[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DwyaneWade/status/695350114689245184[/tweet]

dancing2thabeet · Post #343 » by **dancing2thabeet** » Fri Feb 5, 2016 1:06 am

gom · Post #344 » by **gom** » Fri Feb 5, 2016 1:13 am

As of Feb 3, 2016:

Road Wins Minus Home Losses (ties broken by these sorting criteria: road-wins, overall record, match ups = in that order)

Cleveland (16-3=13)
Toronto (15-6=9)
Atlanta (13-8=5)
Boston (14-10=4)
Miami (12-9=3)
Indiana (11-8=3)
Detroit (11-8=3)
Chicago (11-9=2)
Charlotte (7-8= -1)
Milwaukee (7-8 = -1)
New York (9-12= -3)
Orlando (8-11 = -3)
Washington (11-16= -5)
Brooklyn (4-20 = -16)
Philadelphia (0-23 = -23)

Golden State (23-0 = 23)
San Antonio (14-0 = 14)
Oklahoma City (14-5 = 9)
Clippers (15-8 = 7)
Dallas (13-9 = 4)
Memphis (10-7 = 3)
Portland (9-10 = -1)
Houston (10-12 = -2)
Utah (7 - 10 = -3)
Sacramento (8 - 13 = -5)
Denver (9-15 = -6)
New Orleans (5-11 = -6)
Minnesota (8-18 = -10)
Phoenix (4-14 = -10)
Lakers (4-18 = -14)

50 games in! Does everyone remember the narrative about how the number of home games at the beginning of the schedule made it easier for us? Well we are even now: 25 home & 25 road.

And this is entirely unscientific, but if shows how we've cut into the perceived advantages of our schedule. Here is an extremely rough projection of how the season would shape out if the same percentages road/home held: (they won't)

Did you all have enough numbers today?

Post #345 » by **QUIZ** » Fri Feb 5, 2016 1:27 am

Bosh has struggled from 3 in 2016. Up until December 29 he was shooting 40.6% from 3. Since then he's shooting 30% from 3. Though his scoring has picked up by about 2ppg and his TS% has still been relatively high, 56.5% as opposed to 58.3% prior to 2016.

Bishop45 · Post #346 » by **Bishop45** » Fri Feb 5, 2016 1:34 am

QUIZ wrote:Bosh has struggled from 3 in 2016. Up until December 29 he was shooting 40.6% from 3. Since then he's shooting 30% from 3. Though his scoring has picked up by about 2ppg and his TS% has still been relatively high, 56.5% as opposed to 58.3% prior to 2016.

Jan. injuries, my guess

Post #347 » by **QUIZ** » Fri Feb 5, 2016 1:44 am

Bishop45 wrote:
QUIZ wrote:Bosh has struggled from 3 in 2016. Up until December 29 he was shooting 40.6% from 3. Since then he's shooting 30% from 3. Though his scoring has picked up by about 2ppg and his TS% has still been relatively high, 56.5% as opposed to 58.3% prior to 2016.

Jan. injuries, my guess

It's more than that, even with Goran back he's been struggling. He seems like he's out of rhythm.

CB was 46% from 3 in December.

Bishop45 · Post #348 » by **Bishop45** » Fri Feb 5, 2016 1:46 am

idk, haven't thought much about it

eddieheatfan · Post #349 » by **eddieheatfan** » Fri Feb 5, 2016 4:34 am

dancing2thabeet wrote:

no,i dont think that bosh should be there at all

dancing2thabeet · Post #350 » by **dancing2thabeet** » Fri Feb 5, 2016 11:37 am

Yeah, his numbers aren't eyepopping as they were a month ago and his release might be a tad too slow for 3pt contest. Still, he was a Raptor in his younger days and the ASG is in Toronto so I guess it makes sense? Also, token big guy.

Hope I'm wrong and he kills it.

Post #351 » by **QUIZ** » Sun Feb 7, 2016 12:29 am

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EthanJSkolnick/status/696075125238669313[/tweet]

TroubleS0me · Post #352 » by **TroubleS0me** » Sun Feb 7, 2016 2:42 am

QUIZ wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/EthanJSkolnick/status/696075125238669313[/tweet]

thought Wade was leading the team there but i guess his FT% & 3PT % a played role

Bosh 's FG% is down compared to other years in "clutch" time

http://bkref.com/tiny/N8Nrc

gom · Post #353 » by **gom** » Sun Feb 7, 2016 4:45 am

A couple weeks ago I posted a projection of performance of Eastern Conference teams until the all star break. There are some interesting things happening, so I thought it might be good to make an observation here.

First, here were the projections:

Chicago (25-19 at the time, 27-23 now) (expected: 5-3) (so far: 2-4) - Bulls underperformed on their road trip and now have lost Jimmy Butler. Away game at Charlotte & home game with Atlanta remaining.

Boston (25-21 then, 30-22 now) (expected: 4-5) (so far: 5-1) - Boston has been on a roll. Their remaining games are Sacramento (home), Milwaukee (a), & Clippers at home on a back to back.

Detroit (24-21 then, 27-25 now) (expected: 4-5) (so far: 4-3) - Detroit has been pretty solid. They have home games against Toronto and Denver remaining.

Miami (24-21 then, 29-22 now) (expected: 3-5) (so far: 5-1) - We've been very strong over a tough run. We have two difficult home games against the Clippers and Spurs left.

Indiana (23-21 then, 27-24 now) (expected: 5-4) (so far: 4-3) - Two home games against the Lakers and Charlotte left. They should do really well with them.

New York (22-24 then, 23-30 now) (expected: 4-5) (so far: 1-6) - New York has folded up its tent and gone home. Very poor performance. Home games versus Denver and Washington give some hope.

Charlotte (22-23 then, 25-26 now) (expected: 4-4) (so far: 3-3) - Home game against Chicago and tough road game against Pacers will test the Hornets. Charlotte is holding firm.

Washington (20-22 then, 22-27 now) (expected: 4-5) (so far: 2-5) - Two away games (New York & Milwaukee) will be a lot easier than the OKC, Golden State, and back to back games they just faced. Washington's resiliency is being tested.

Orlando (20-23 then, 21-28 now) (expected: 3-6) (so far: 1-5) Two games with Atlanta and one with San Antonio will likely add more losses. Orlando is really falling since beginning of January.

It is pretty clear to me that the East has broken into 4 tiers now:

Tier 1: Toronto & Cleveland.
Tier 2: Chicago, Miami, Boston, Indiana, Detroit, Charlotte, and Atlanta.
Tier 3: Washington, Orlando, New York, Milwaukee
Tier 4: Philadelphia & Brooklyn

It wasn't long ago that Washington, Orlando, New York, and Milwaukee had a chance to break into Tier 2. Only Charlotte has kept pace though. The others have slipped away.

Teams in Tier 2 are going to scramble to stay in the hunt. Trades can really make a difference now, allowing a team to break free from the others. Even if a team cannot break into Tier 1, there is enough space to get some breathing room above Tier 2. Some teams in Tier 3 (Washington, Orlando, & Milwaukee especially) might be willing to dump assets. Sacramento, New Orleans, Phoenix, and others in the West are in the same boat.

It's time for a big decision in Miami. Will we make a trade to attempt to improve or will Riley stay pat?

Burnie Riley · Post #354 » by **Burnie Riley** » Sun Feb 7, 2016 4:49 pm

It's really dissappointing that Gerald can't buy a bucket lately, and I understand some of the frustration and hate I've seen for him in the game threads... but this is insane:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/EthanJSkolnick/status/696076670957129729[/tweet]
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*15&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Skolnick then tried to say that it's because he's playing with Bosh wade and Winslow because he hates him. His defense has been great. And his struggles with shooting could bring him back next season for cheap. And if he can keep playing D and his shot comes back, then we will all be very happy.

jereseja · Post #355 » by **jereseja** » Sun Feb 7, 2016 6:42 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Manny_Navarro/status/696402371014832129[/tweet]

twix2500 · Post #356 » by **twix2500** » Sun Feb 7, 2016 10:07 pm

So that's it no Birdman(fake injury), McBob (?)and TJ(real in jury) for the rest of the season? Does Spo really think he starting Stat for the rest of the season?

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Post #357 » by **heat4life** » Mon Feb 8, 2016 1:41 pm

twix2500 wrote:So that's it no Birdman(fake injury), McBob (?)and TJ(real in jury) for the rest of the season? Does Spo really think he starting Stat for the rest of the season?

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"I got this dawg!"

Post #358 » by **QUIZ** » Mon Feb 8, 2016 2:34 pm

I feel like our 3pt shooting woes are also on Spo. Would having better shooters help? Yeah, but we don't run a system where 3pt shooting is encouraged.

Charlotte for example was one of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the league last year and now they're top 5 in 3pt attempts(don't quote me on that)

The nature of the 3pt shot is that it's technically less likely to go in than a 2pt shot but over a larger sample because of the extra point that it nets you eventually things will balance themselves out.

A 33% 3 is less likely to go in than a 45% 2 but over a large sample a 33% 3 is the equivalent of a 50% 2.

It's for this reason that you can't let 3pt misses discourage you from shooting 3 pointers. Yeah it's less likely to go in than a layup but eventually things will balance themselves out.

Unfortunately our coach doesn't think that way. That's the analytics approach and it's not just the coach but even our best players(Wade, Goran, Deng) don't believe in analytics.

So to them it's just about whether or not a shot goes in. They don't care about points per possession of midrange J's vs 3pt shots. They just focus on getting the ball in the hoop.

A way of thinking that is frankly 20 years past it's time.

We need to move forward. We started this small ball trend where we spread the floor to give our wings space. Running inverted offenses where our wings post up and our bigs shoot 3's. Don't shy away from it now.

Heat_Fan_87 · Post #359 » by **Heat_Fan_87** » Mon Feb 8, 2016 2:46 pm

QUIZ wrote:I feel like our 3pt shooting woes are also on Spo. Would having better shooters help? Yeah, but we don't run a system where 3pt shooting is encouraged.

Charlotte for example was one of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the league last year and now they're top 5 in 3pt attempts(don't quote me on that)

The nature of the 3pt shot is that it's technically less likely to go in than a 2pt shot but over a larger sample because of the extra point that it nets you eventually things will balance themselves out.

A 33% 3 is less likely to go in than a 45% 2 but over a large sample a 33% 3 is the equivalent of a 50% 2.

It's for this reason that you can't let 3pt misses discourage you from shooting 3 pointers. Yeah it's less likely to go in than a layup but eventually things will balance themselves out.

Unfortunately our coach doesn't think that way. That's the analytics approach and it's not just the coach but even our best players(Wade, Goran, Deng) don't believe in analytics.

So to them it's just about whether or not a shot goes in. They don't care about points per possession of midrange J's vs 3pt shots. They just focus on getting the ball in the hoop.

A way of thinking that is frankly 20 years past it's time.

We need to move forward. We started this small ball trend where we spread the floor to give our wings space. Running inverted offenses where our wings post up and our bigs shoot 3's. Don't shy away from it now.

So you want guys that are not good 3pt shooters to just jack up shots? That makes little sense to me. Spo has a system where is our players make their shots, we usually win. Not sure what more you can ask for.

Charlotte jakcs up a ton of 3's but they are avg in terms of makes...tight at 16th. We are 28th. That strategy seems to me that we would lose far more often. IF we had players that were 3pt threats then sure, we would be taking more 3's.

Look back to the big 3 years, in 2012-2013 we were # 6 in attempts and 2 in %.

We need shooters bad.

twix2500 · Post #360 » by **twix2500** » Mon Feb 8, 2016 2:49 pm

QUIZ wrote:I feel like our 3pt shooting woes are also on Spo. Would having better shooters help? Yeah, but we don't run a system where 3pt shooting is encouraged.

Charlotte for example was one of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the league last year and now they're top 5 in 3pt attempts(don't quote me on that)

The nature of the 3pt shot is that it's technically less likely to go in than a 2pt shot but over a larger sample because of the extra point that it nets you eventually things will balance themselves out.

A 33% 3 is less likely to go in than a 45% 2 but over a large sample a 33% 3 is the equivalent of a 50% 2.

It's for this reason that you can't let 3pt misses discourage you from shooting 3 pointers. Yeah it's less likely to go in than a layup but eventually things will balance themselves out.

Unfortunately our coach doesn't think that way. That's the analytics approach and it's not just the coach but even our best players(Wade, Goran, Deng) don't believe in analytics.

So to them it's just about whether or not a shot goes in. They don't care about points per possession of midrange J's vs 3pt shots. They just focus on getting the ball in the hoop.

A way of thinking that is frankly 20 years past it's time.

We need to move forward. We started this small ball trend where we spread the floor to give our wings space. Running inverted offenses where our wings post up and our bigs shoot 3's. Don't shy away from it now.

It was incourage early in the season, rightfully so it's discourage. Thats why we been winning lately. Efficient offense top notch defense

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