The Curse of 33-2

[Jamaaliver]

One prominent poster recently made a passing, yet very insightful comment:

At the end of the day, that 33-2 run might end up being the biggest curse on this franchise, because all its done is given us a false sense of hope. Not the fans, I'm talking about the actual decision makers who are about to lock in long term with this core.

Here

He, essentially, theorized that a negative consequence of that stellar run last January led us to believe that our current team, despite the fact it was never truly intended to be the final draft of its original architect, was strong enough to contend for a title. That it was necessary to lock in as many players as possible and battle the Cleveland LeBrons for the next few years.

This was a common line of thinking for fans, and understandably so. Maintaining the course at all costs was necessary.

And yet, three months into the following season we stand at a crossroads. Trying to determine whether more patience or a few more tweaks to the existing collection of players can return us to last year's glory. Despite all the team's struggles...the Hawks currently jostle between 3rd and 5th place on any given day. They have, however, already matched last season's loss total. Earning 22 defeats (and some pretty terrible ones at that) before the All Star break this year.

One fansided article in particular puts our predicament into context:

That the Hawks were touched by collaborative brilliance last season is something of a curse. They were more than the sum of their parts, a tsunami of above average talent all cresting at the same time. This creates the illusion that it could be recaptured at any moment...And that illusion is comfortable until the beginning of February, because there are always multiple paths leading away from each moment. Once that trade deadline passes, all the Hawks have is waiting and hoping for things to click.

The looming trade deadline erases optimism and replaces it with honesty and pragmatism. The Atlanta Hawks are 28-22, currently holding the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. They are good enough to make the playoffs, will probably be working with home court advantage when they get there. And yet, there is not a single likely playoff opponent — from the Charlotte Hornets to the Cleveland Cavaliers — that they could feel certain of beating...the magic the Hawks had last year is the only thing with the real potential to separate them from the pack, and that mystical moment has passed.

Here

So, collectively, where do we stand in regards to what the Hawks should be doing this trade deadline?

• Are we sellers? Moving our primary pieces while we can still get value in return?
• Are we looking for pieces to contribute now? or are we prepping for a complete rebuild?
  
• Should we hold the core together just in case?
• We planning on maxing out all the major pieces moving forward, or do we foresee a need to move on from some of the older, more expensive mainstays of years past?
  
• What general direction should this team be going in at the trade deadline?

[Jamaaliver]

The way I see it, we have three very good trade chips for a contender seeking immediate help or a rising young team in need of vets.

1. AL Horford (for 3 months)
2. J Teague (for 18 months)
3. P Millsap (for 18 months)

I believe we should package any two of these for top value. We've failed to get a top player in the draft. We've failed to get a top player in free agency. It's time to move aggressively and get a top player via trade.

In all likeliness, Teague and Millsap, due to their contracts situations, could be moved for a top 25 player in his twenties. Blake Griffin is the perfect example of the caliber player to pursue. Though, I hear his name mentioned more in line with DeMarcus Cousins or Kevin Durant. An elite player traded for another elite player.

Ideally, a prime player under contract and a solid playoff showing might convince Horford to come back next season at either a mini-max (slightly more annually salary than Millsap is currently getting) or on a one-and-one LeBron style contract that has become popular of late.

If there is no chance to get a top player in trade, move Millsap and Teague individually for a plethora of young up and coming players (and the necessary contracts to match thing up).

Millsap to ORL for Victor Oladipo, Channing Frye (and the contract to Tobias Harris )*
Teague to HOU for Capela, Motiejunas, and a first round pick swap*.

But with Tiago, Horford, Korver and Dennis...we still have a solid enough group to compete for a playoff spot. We just need some young, cheap players to grow in the farm system. (An approach made necessary by numerous missteps with 1st round picks over the last 4 years.)

I still view Horford as the franchise cornerstone. Though, even I acknowledge he can't be paid $25 million+ for the type of production he provides. I'd go after Joakim this summer on a modest deal to reunite the two former Gators. Acquire a veteran PG to platoon/mentor Dennis. Move Korver to the bench.

We can bide our time as a second tier team, but with actual youngsters to develop, we prep ourselves for the day we combine those assets for a star...or for the day one of our young guns actually becomes a star.

Also...most importantly. We still have enough cap space to pursue free agents this summer, plus feature a solid collection of young players to lean on.

NOTE: These are just examples of the kind of deals I'd go for. Accepting a bad contract in exchange for a top young talent. Or taking solid prospects across the board.

Motiejunas in this offense could be enormously productive. Oladipo in our development program could become a Jimmy Butler-caliber SG flanked by vets. Capela is a capable young backup center who could prove valuable in future trades.

[ATL Boy]

I absolutely still stand by my comments.

If we stay the course, without making any moves, then (when we're writhing in mediocrity in a few years) we'll be able to point to two very important moments in the past 12 months to blame. One is the 33-2 run (not a moment, but more of a 2 month span), and the other is the firing of Danny Ferry.

Coach Bud is too emotionally connected to these players, I don't like that at all. Ferry had a vision for this team, and it's a shame that he didn't have a chance to complete it (he should've never been fired, but based on the ESPN article this past fall, it seemed like a power play on Bud's part to get him fired, in an attempt to take more control - I don't really blame Bud though, we as humans inherently desire control and power, and he successfully got it).


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[xccelerate]

It might of been an illusion of sorts but I'm still very fond of our 33-2 run. We've never had that length nor level of dominance since I've been Hawks fan.

He, essentially, theorized that a negative consequence of that stellar run last January led us to believe the team we currently had, despite the fact it was never truly intended to be the final draft of its original architect, was strong enough to contend for a title. That it was necessary to lock in as many players as possible and battle the Cleveland LeBrons for the next few years.

I actually believe what caused this was the Danny Ferry debacle. Danny Ferry was the original architect and we never saw his final draft. Coach Bud (as seen w/how he dealt with Adreian, last year's pick, and this offseason) and new ownership's fear of regression were what locked down players.

Our first order of business should be to get a new GM instead of a coach Bud puppet that can set up a system where we can draft and develop players like Utah. This develop underutilized players into starters format isn't going to net us a superstar nor make us into championship contenders.

[Jamaaliver]

I actually believe what caused this was the Danny Ferry debacle. Danny Ferry was the original architect and we never saw his final draft. Coach Bud (as seen w/how he dealt with Adreian, last year's pick, and this offseason) and new ownership's fear of regression were what locked down players.

Our first order of business should be to get a new GM instead of a coach Bud puppet that can set up a system where we can draft and develop players like Utah. This develop underutilized players into starters format isn't going to net us a superstar nor make us into championship contenders.

I do wonder what direction DF would have gone in had he stayed.

As late as Summer 2014, his last summer as acting GM, Ferry was dumping salary in an attempt to upgrade the roster with Pau or Luol. He clearly didn't view this roster as complete then. I don't know if he could alter too much after the greatest season in Atlanta history.

I doubt he dumps Adreian mid-season for nothing. That move weakened our front court depth and served no real benefit to us. I don't believe he wastes a top 20 pick on Tim Hardaway Jr.

Would he have found a way to keep Demarre and Millsap? Would that have mattered?

I honestly don't know. But the worst thing that could have happened is more or less what did happen: Wes and Bud attempting to continue Ferry's vision of this roster...by maintaining the status quo. Leaving us in limbo. Not bad enough to tank...not good enough to contend. Not young enough to grow in the short term.

I maintain that Teague, #15 pick in the draft (and Horford?) would have made excellent trade package in pursuit of a top player or draft pick.


Revisionist History Trade of my dreams: Imagine if last summer we offered the Knicks a trade of Horford, Teague and #15 for the #4 pick. NYK gets two All Stars in their primes for less than $20 million combined to play along side Carmelo. They still can afford R Lopez and Afflalo. they become instant contenders in the East. We get #4, draft Porzingis...and then bring back a core of Millsap, Demarre, Korver, Dennis and Tiago. Knicks get a team talented enough to go toe-to-toe with CLE. Hawks stay a competitive playoff team...but get a young star to build around moving forward. A trade like that would have been lampooned at the time but would have made both teams better moving forward. Knicks fans can't complain with all stars. Hawks fans get to stay a competitive, veteran team...but finally get a franchise star for the future.

it'd never happen today, probably wouldn't fit under the salary cap, and would be a career defining gamble but imagine where we are today had we pulled something like that off...

[Geaux_Hawks]

I absolutely still stand by my comments.

If we stay the course, without making any moves, then (when we're writhing in mediocrity in a few years) we'll be able to point to two very important moments in the past 12 months to blame. One is the 33-2 run (not a moment, but more of a 2 month span), and the other is the firing of Danny Ferry.

Coach Bud is too emotionally connected to these players, I don't like that at all. Ferry had a vision for this team, and it's a shame that he didn't have a chance to complete it (he should've never been fired, but based on the ESPN article this past fall, it seemed like a power play on Bud's part to get him fired, in an attempt to take more control - I don't really blame Bud though, we as humans inherently desire control and power, and he successfully got it).


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I like this mold of thinking. Bud needs to have some of his power taken away or the team will suffer mightily. Not having quality players in the pipeline has killed our growth and development as a franchise. Ferry was on the right track with this team. Ferry took us from salary cap hell and gave us flexibility in being able to acquire talent. As Stated, Bud is emotionally attached to these players. He needs someone to drop the hammer when needed.

I really think Ferry would have drafted some decent players last year, instead of trading the pick for essentially nothing.

[Jamaaliver]

Ferry was on the right track with this team.

I really think Ferry would have drafted some decent players last year, instead of trading the pick for essentially nothing.

IDK. the whole reason we're lacking young players in the pipeline...is because of Ferry's mismanagement of 1st round draft picks.

From the Adreian pick, the Bebe selection...trading Bebe for cap space.

Danny ferry had four first round draft picks under his reign. Most in the top 18. Only one of those even became a rotation player.

It's tough to give him the benefit of the doubt based on his first round drafting track record.

[Geaux_Hawks]

Ferry was on the right track with this team.

I really think Ferry would have drafted some decent players last year, instead of trading the pick for essentially nothing.

IDK. the whole reason we're lacking young players in the pipeline...is because of Ferry's mismanagement of 1st round draft picks.

From the Adreian pick, the Bebe selection...trading Bebe for cap space.

Danny ferry had four first round draft picks under his reign. Most in the top 18. Only one of those even became a rotation player.

It's tough to give him the benefit of the doubt based on his first round drafting track record.

The only situation I think was mismanaged was the Payne pick.

I really wanted Gary Harris or Nurkic(Denver FO looks like drafting savants), but IDK why we went with Payne. Bebe was a good selection. We just moved him for cap space that we never really used. John Jenkins would have probably turned into a quality player if his injuries didn't hamper him.

Regardless, I don't think Coach Bud needs to be in charge of selecting players.

[Jamaaliver]

The only situation I think was mismanaged was the Payne pick.

I really wanted Gary Harris or Nurkic(Denver FO looks like drafting savants), but IDK why we went with Payne. Bebe was a good selection. We just moved him for cap space that we never really used. John Jenkins would have probably turned into a quality player if his injuries didn't hamper him.

Regardless, I don't think Coach Bud needs to be in charge of selecting players.

Every bit of this...is reasonable and fair.

[ATL Boy]

Coach Bud on 92.9: "We really feel good about the group we have, and we want to continue building with them."

I don't like the sound of that at all, and I wouldn't really be surprised if Bud decides to just stick with this group while maxing out Horford and not making any major trades (especially if we close out the pre-AS break strong, which I think we will).

This just adds to the point that Bud is too close to these players.

One of my favorite movies is Moneyball, which talks about Billie Bean and the incredible year of the 2002 Oakland A's. One of the more memorable parts of that movie for me is when Bean says that he tries to not develop a relationship with any of his players, knowing that that would make it all the harder to trade them or cut them. This is the mentality a GM needs to have, and it's directly conflicting if a head coach is in that position, because the job of the coach is to develop that connection with his players.


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[Hawk Eye]

Coach Bud on 92.9: "We really feel good about the group we have, and we want to continue building with them."

I don't like the sound of that at all, and I wouldn't really be surprised if Bud decides to just stick with this group while maxing out Horford and not making any major trades (especially if we close out the pre-AS break strong, which I think we will).

This just adds to the point that Bud is too close to these players.

One of my favorite movies is Moneyball, which talks about Billie Bean and the incredible year of the 2002 Oakland A's. One of the more memorable parts of that movie for me is when Bean says that he tries to not develop a relationship with any of his players, knowing that that would make it all the harder to trade them or cut them. This is the mentality a GM needs to have, and it's directly conflicting if a head coach is in that position, because the job of the coach is to develop that connection with his players.


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I think we will close out strong as well. Having already won the last two, we still have IND, ORL b2b, and then CHI to finish off before the AS break begins. I think we either lose one of the back to backs against Orlando OR we lose one out of IND/CHI. Ultimately, I think this leads to us standing pat at the trade deadline as Bud will think we have "found it" and no moves will be made.

[Jamaaliver]

Coach Bud on 92.9: "We really feel good about the group we have, and we want to continue building with them."

[jayu70]

I'm not sure what Bud is expected to say but exactly what he said. He's not gonna tip his hand and slight the players.

[PandaKidd]

Chris Vivlamore ‏@CVivlamoreAJC 35s35 seconds ago

Quote from Kyle Korver in story to be posted later: "We have to understand that last year is last year and this year is this year."

[Jamaaliver]

Chris Vivlamore ‏@CVivlamoreAJC 35s35 seconds ago

Quote from Kyle Korver in story to be posted later: "We have to understand that last year is last year and this year is this year."

Bingo!!!

It was foolish for us, the players or the Front Office to just assume this team was guaranteed a top 2 seed or a return visit to the ECF.

Bringing back the same squad was a mistake. All those flaws we saw last post season are the same flaws we're seeing this season.

The rebounding issues, the poor shooting, the inconsistent play, the ineffective offense, the late game struggles, playing down to inferior opponents.

Go back and look at our struggles with BRK, WAS & CLE. Our weaknesses were exposed. We simply didn't do enough to shore them up.

[Jamaaliver]

Macon sportswriter attempts to diagnose the Hawks struggles this season:

Last year, the Hawks won 60 games. They lost only 22 the entire season. Here we are approaching mid-February, and the Hawks already have 24 losses, and they are just six games above .500.

So what's been the difference?

Well, DeMarre Caroll and Pero Antic are gone from last year's team.

Al Horford has had a weird year. His rebounds have decreased the past four years, from 10.2 per game in 2012-13 to 6.9 rebounds per game this season. Surprisingly, Horford has taken 159 3-point shots this season, making 33 percent of them. Horford shot 65 3-pointers in the first eight years of his career. Is that necessary to stretch the floor, or has it been part of the problem?

Kyle Korver has not had as good a season. He shot 49 percent from 3-point territory last season and has only shot 38 percent from the outside this year. Is Korver getting old in a hurry?

Jeff Teague has been inconsistent, which has started a number of trade rumors about the veteran point guard. Teague has one year left on his contract after this season, so if the Hawks are going to trade him now might be the time.

The Eastern Conference is better this season, so that's another reason the Hawks have not been as successful.

This is just a very strange team to figure out. The last thing any franchise wants to do is to go backward, but maybe the 60-win season a year ago was the best the Hawks will ever do in one year.

Here

[Jamaaliver]

AJC Columnist (and former Hawks Beat Writer) Mike Cunningham offers his two cents on the current malaise of the Hawks. He advocates blowing the whole thing up and moving on:

My take: Budenholzer doesn’t have much choice. The Hawks aren’t good enough to topple the Cavs, who seem to have sorted themselves out under new coach Tyronn Lue...

But more important ...is the fact that Bud’s decisions aren’t just about now. Committing to this Hawks group now means committing to it for the long haul. I think that’s too risky under the circumstances, and there’s enough value with potential trade pieces that the Hawks can expect a good haul for the ensuing retool.

Don’t forget that the Hawks’ “magic” of last season was based on four veteran players having career years: Teague, Korver Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll. Carroll is in Toronto now. And while the steep decline that one statistical model projected for Millsap hasn’t materialized—he’s been at least as good this year as last—Horford has slipped a bit, Teague has fallen off significantly and Korver has cratered.

Signing Horford to a maximum five-year, $144.5 million deal is risky because of his age and injury history.

...these aren’t easy decisions. The reality is that the 2016 Hawks aren’t a contender and keeping together a core of declining-or-leveling veterans with no superstar among them isn’t a good long-term strategy.

Here


Coming from one of the guys who's watched this team up close for almost a decade...who still (likely) has sources inside the organization, this really caught my attention. Everything he says makes sense.

We'll know in 7 days which way Coach Bud is leaning.

I learned 3 years ago, the heard way, that big change and bold moves are never easy. I waited with bated breath for us to trade Josh Smith all week...and then nothing.

I won't believe anyone in this Front Office is willing to make a big trade until I see it. because time and time again...they haven't.

[PandaKidd]

I was talking with a PTH writer on twitter that thinks if we lose AH its game over this offseason. I dont think i necessarily believe that if we handle the other positions of need.

Lets say AH leaves, and we sign Mozgov? Is that a possibility?

What if we trade Teague for Oladipo this year ?

I just dont think losing AH is a death sentence. I think losing him for nothing would hurt, but I can stomach it if we move teague THIS year or Korver this year for something.

[Jamaaliver]

I was talking with a PTH writer on twitter that thinks if we lose AH its game over this offseason. I dont think i necessarily believe that if we handle the other positions of need.

Lets say AH leaves, and we sign Mozgov? Is that a possibility?

What if we trade Teague for Oladipo this year ?

I just dont think losing AH is a death sentence. I think losing him for nothing would hurt, but I can stomach it if we move teague THIS year or Korver this year for something.

I think one thing we've seen time and again with this team (and the previous version) is that no one player is irreplaceable. For years I heard the team would fall apart without JJ. Without Smoove. And yet...the franchise recovred.

With an offseason to make roster moves, any single player can be replaced and we still keep chugging along as a 44-48 win team.

Again, if we had a Gorgui Dieng or Gobert, or Nurkic in the wings learning the system for years...we wouldn't even miss a beat with the loss of AL.

NOTE: If it's Kris Willis at PeachTreeHoops...$#%@ that guy. He's the worst.

(Sorry for my foul language, but that young man's behavior and attitude are unprofessional and inappropriate. )

[PandaKidd]

haha I actually talk to Willis a lot, he seems to be on the more optimistic side. This was Rowland.

The guy i cant stand is that SOARING DOWN SOUTH clown Broom. If you disagree with anything he says he blocks you from twitter.