Bradley Beal - Part III

[nate33]

He's doing better this season because he's taking more shots and making a significantly higher percentage of his 2's (making the same % of his 3's). He's basically the same as last season in assists, rebounds, steals, but his to's have increased. I'm not sure he's ever going to improve on this year's shooting stats, so if he's ever going to be a max quality player, I think stats such as assists, rebounds, and steals have to start increasing.

I think part of the issue with his rebounds and assists is with his role on the team. When Wall is on the floor, he handles the rock 90% of the time. If Beal is going to get more assists, they're going to have to come from Wall - and overall, I think it's unwise to take the ball out of Wall's hands.

We know Beal can generate assists at a higher rate when his role changes. When Wall was hurt in the playoffs, Beal averaged 8 assists per game. I think this applies to rebounds as well. Wittman puts such an emphasis on running that he usually asks both Wall and Beal to get out in transition unless the ball is coming right to them on the defensive glass. When Beal plays at the 3 or the 4 during small ball lineups, he seems to rebound very well because he no longer has the responsibility to get out in transition.

Overall, I don't worry too much about the rebounds and assists. I want him to make shots and keep the turnovers low.

[dobrojim]

But Chris Miller says he is our 2nd best player. We MUST keep him!

half serious - half facetious.

it's a tough call.

[Ruzious]

He's doing better this season because he's taking more shots and making a significantly higher percentage of his 2's (making the same % of his 3's). He's basically the same as last season in assists, rebounds, steals, but his to's have increased. I'm not sure he's ever going to improve on this year's shooting stats, so if he's ever going to be a max quality player, I think stats such as assists, rebounds, and steals have to start increasing.

I think part of the issue with his rebounds and assists is with his role on the team. When Wall is on the floor, he handles the rock 90% of the time. If Beal is going to get more assists, they're going to have to come from Wall - and overall, I think it's unwise to take the ball out of Wall's hands.

We know Beal can generate assists at a higher rate when his role changes. When Wall was hurt in the playoffs, Beal averaged 8 assists per game. I think this applies to rebounds as well. Wittman puts such an emphasis on running that he usually asks both Wall and Beal to get out in transition unless the ball is coming right to them on the defensive glass. When Beal plays at the 3 or the 4 during small ball lineups, he seems to rebound very well because he no longer has the responsibility to get out in transition.

Overall, I don't worry too much about the rebounds and assists. I want him to make shots and keep the turnovers low.

I don't agree wit the logic there. There's nothing limiting Beal or any other Wiz player from improving on their numbers. There are plenty more points, rebounds, steals, and even assists to go around. All it takes is improved play. Lebron James is a ball hog, but that didn't stop Dwyane Wade from putting up HOF numbers all along the box score.

[vincecarter4pres]

Do you think your organization will match a max offer sheet this off-season? Cause it's a mortal lock some team will give him one no matter what his final numbers look like.

[nate33]

Do you think your organization will match a max offer sheet this off-season? Cause it's a mortal lock some team will give him one no matter what his final numbers look like.

Yes. The organization will definitely match.

[payitforward]

Do you think your organization will match a max offer sheet this off-season? Cause it's a mortal lock some team will give him one no matter what his final numbers look like.

Yes. The organization will definitely match.

Also... I love your handle.

[dckingsfan]

Do you think your organization will match a max offer sheet this off-season? Cause it's a mortal lock some team will give him one no matter what his final numbers look like.

Is Ernie Grunfeld our GM?

[Darko Miliminutes]

Something a lot seem to forgetting. When it's a tough game against a tough team with great half court Defense, It's Beal that gets it done. Pierce was of course a major factor for last seasons playoffs, along with Beal. The year before that, it was all Beal in the playoffs.

When opposing D's clamped down in the playoffs, it's been Beal that makes the smart poised play, and Beal that that made the poised tough shots. Be careful with your lack of desire to pay the kid...many others gladly will.

[Ruzious]

Something a lot seem to forgetting. When it's a tough game against a tough team with great half court Defense, It's Beal that gets it done. Pierce was of course a major factor for last seasons playoffs, along with Beal. The year before that, it was all Beal in the playoffs.

When opposing D's clamped down in the playoffs, it's been Beal that makes the smart poised play, and Beal that that made the poised tough shots. Be careful with your lack of desire to pay the kid...many others gladly will.

What tough teams has Washington beat in the playoffs? Toronto is reliant on Kyle Lowry who was playing injured in the playoffs. The year before, they beat an ordinary Bulls team. That's it.

[Kanyewest]

Something a lot seem to forgetting. When it's a tough game against a tough team with great half court Defense, It's Beal that gets it done. Pierce was of course a major factor for last seasons playoffs, along with Beal. The year before that, it was all Beal in the playoffs.

When opposing D's clamped down in the playoffs, it's been Beal that makes the smart poised play, and Beal that that made the poised tough shots. Be careful with your lack of desire to pay the kid...many others gladly will.

What tough teams has Washington beat in the playoffs? Toronto is reliant on Kyle Lowry who was playing injured in the playoffs. The year before, they beat an ordinary Bulls team. That's it.

Beal was also alright against the Pacers, although not as good as he was against the Bulls. The Hawks also played decent defense in the regular season, although they were imploding in the postseason. Either way, you could argue that Beal was the Wizards' best player in those second round matchups, especially because Wall struggled against the Pacers and Wall got injured against the Hawks.

The big question right now is if the Wizards are even good enough to get into the playoffs. Would a team feel comfortable in giving a max contract to a player that only shows up in the playoffs and doesn't contribute much in the regular season? And he's also injury prone.

But it looks there are a number of teams with cap space who may be willing to sign Beal. It wouldn't be the first time that Beal was overpaid. Plus if the Wizards make the playoffs, recency bias could play out as teams could just be looking at how well Beal played in the playoffs.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Something a lot seem to forgetting. When it's a tough game against a tough team with great half court Defense, It's Beal that gets it done. Pierce was of course a major factor for last seasons playoffs, along with Beal. The year before that, it was all Beal in the playoffs.

When opposing D's clamped down in the playoffs, it's been Beal that makes the smart poised play, and Beal that that made the poised tough shots. Be careful with your lack of desire to pay the kid...many others gladly will.

Beal was better in the playoffs than he had been in the regular season, but we shouldn't overstate how good he was.

[payitforward]

In the 335 minutes Beal has played since his return, I have his productivity per 40 minutes just slightly higher than that of Klay Thompson (i.e. on the whole season so far).

Beal's scoring is better than Thompson's: he's producing 26.75 pts per 40 minutes vs. Thompson's 26 (again, tho, that's on the season), and Beal's TS% for this stretch is .62 vs. Thompson's .59 (through 50 games).

The rest of their on-court numbers per 40 minutes are pretty close overall: Thompson's rebounding a little better, Beal gets more assists. Thompson steals a little less and turns it over a little more. Beal fouls more.

It's worth noting that Thompson is 26, almost 3.5 years older than Bradley Beal. His first 3 seasons were no better than Beal's first 3. He broke out last year.

It's a little too early to give up on Bradley Beal. There are rookies in the league older than Beal! (Actually, I just made that up but I bet it's true anyway)

Then again... it's also too early to give him a max contract, but we'll be forced to I think.

[nuposse04]

In the 335 minutes Beal has played since his return, I have his productivity per 40 minutes just slightly higher than that of Klay Thompson (i.e. on the whole season so far).

Beal's scoring is better than Thompson's: he's producing 26.75 pts per 40 minutes vs. Thompson's 26 (again, tho, that's on the season), and Beal's TS% for this stretch is .62 vs. Thompson's .59 (through 50 games).

The rest of their on-court numbers per 40 minutes are pretty close overall: Thompson's rebounding a little better, Beal gets more assists. Thompson steals a little less and turns it over a little more. Beal fouls more.

It's worth noting that Thompson is 26, almost 3.5 years older than Bradley Beal. His first 3 seasons were no better than Beal's first 3. He broke out last year.

It's a little too early to give up on Bradley Beal. There are rookies in the league older than Beal! (Actually, I just made that up but I bet it's true anyway)

Then again... it's also too early to give him a max contract, but we'll be forced to I think.

Our best hope might be that systemic regime change may provide an environment for him which justifies said max contract. I think rebounding could be ameliorated if we had a system that didn't tell them to run all the damn time.

Beal playing well and us missing the playoffs cause of our bench's faults and EG's failed player acquisitions could be the best thing that happens for Beal and the team... so long as it leads to change we can believe in.

[payitforward]

(Just looked at the 2015 draft list: 19 of the 50 guys chosen are older than Beal -- including 4 chosen in R1. Another 3 guys who went in R1 were born w/in a few months after Brad. Wow.)

[Kanyewest]

In the 335 minutes Beal has played since his return, I have his productivity per 40 minutes just slightly higher than that of Klay Thompson (i.e. on the whole season so far).

Beal's scoring is better than Thompson's: he's producing 26.75 pts per 40 minutes vs. Thompson's 26 (again, tho, that's on the season), and Beal's TS% for this stretch is .62 vs. Thompson's .59 (through 50 games).

The rest of their on-court numbers per 40 minutes are pretty close overall: Thompson's rebounding a little better, Beal gets more assists. Thompson steals a little less and turns it over a little more. Beal fouls more.

It's worth noting that Thompson is 26, almost 3.5 years older than Bradley Beal. His first 3 seasons were no better than Beal's first 3. He broke out last year.

It's a little too early to give up on Bradley Beal. There are rookies in the league older than Beal! (Actually, I just made that up but I bet it's true anyway)

Then again... it's also too early to give him a max contract, but we'll be forced to I think.

Klay Thompson received a max contract extension with Golden State in 2014. Beal's return has been solid since his return but the sample size is still small.

I would say Thompson was not only more efficient but more importantly much healthier than Bradley Beal in their 3rd seasons. Thompson only missed one game during his first 3 seasons.

Another factor to take into account is that Golden State has been much more competitive than the Wizards. While you can certainly argue that the Warriors had more talent around Klay than Beal, the problem that remains is that how do the Wizards end up acquiring more talent if Beal is to remain on their books as a max contract.

Overall, you do make some good points that Beal is on track to earn a big payday. I think human nature will judge Beal by his recent performance rather than how he performed as a whole in the regular season. If the Wizards make the playoffs, Beal can most likely tear it up and look like a great player especially for teams who do not watch the Wizards on a day to day basis.

Beal may very well have been maxed out already by Washington this offseason. He hasn't for the following reasons- signing Beal to an extensions would have shrunk their cap space to sign Kevin Durant or another major free agent. Plus I believe Beal can only sign a 4 year extension whereas the Wizards can offer him a 5 year deal if the Wizards decide to re-sign him in the 2017 offseason.

At the end of the day, I can certainly understand the rational for moving on from Beal but I suspect that EG will re-sign Beal to a max contract. Even if the Wizards had a better gm, I don't think that Leonsis would let Beal walk.

Of course, there is a small chance that the Wizards could move Beal at the trade deadline but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[nate33]

Beal is continuing to play very well.

He had a rotten start in the first half of the Utah game, going 1-6 IIRC, but he finished strong in the second half to end up with a nice stat line: 16 points, 3 boards, 3 assists, .571TS% in 24 minutes.

He posted 17 points, 1 board and 3 assists in 26 minutes against Detroit, with a TS% of .751. (He continues to blow his free throws, shooting 1 for 3 including a patented miss on a technical FT.)

Since his return from injury, he has been extremely efficient offensively, with a TS% of .621. However, he is doing it by shooting an unsustainable .582 from 2-point range while averaging just 4.2 FTA's per 36 minutes. I'm not sure if he can keep that up.

[Illmatic12]

Beal is continuing to play very well.

He had a rotten start in the first half of the Utah game, going 1-6 IIRC, but he finished strong in the second half to end up with a nice stat line: 16 points, 3 boards, 3 assists, .571TS% in 24 minutes.

He posted 17 points, 1 board and 3 assists in 26 minutes against Detroit, with a TS% of .751. He continues to blow his free throws, shooting 1 for 3 including a patented miss on a technical FT.

Since his return from injury, he has been extremely efficient offensively, with a TS% of .621. However, he is doing it by shooting an unsustainable .582 from 2-point range while averaging just 4.2 FTA's per 36 minutes. I'm not sure if he can keep that up.

'2-point range' include shots at the rim.. you realize Beal isn't only shooting jumpers, right?




Beal is taking the majority of his shots at the rim or from 3pt range (both at career highs in attempts). As long as he keeps up that shot distribution he can be efficient. Of course not 62% TS efficient, but it's clear imo he's made changes in his game that can be lasting. I'd like to see him take even more three pointers, but the way he's playing now shows that he's on a very good trajectory at 22yo.

[nate33]

Beal is continuing to play very well.

He had a rotten start in the first half of the Utah game, going 1-6 IIRC, but he finished strong in the second half to end up with a nice stat line: 16 points, 3 boards, 3 assists, .571TS% in 24 minutes.

He posted 17 points, 1 board and 3 assists in 26 minutes against Detroit, with a TS% of .751. He continues to blow his free throws, shooting 1 for 3 including a patented miss on a technical FT.

Since his return from injury, he has been extremely efficient offensively, with a TS% of .621. However, he is doing it by shooting an unsustainable .582 from 2-point range while averaging just 4.2 FTA's per 36 minutes. I'm not sure if he can keep that up.

'2-point range' include shots at the rim.. you realize Beal isn't only shooting jumpers, right?




Beal is taking the majority of his shots at the rim or from 3pt range (both at career highs in attempts). As long as he keeps up that shot distribution he can be efficient. Of course not 62% TS efficient, but it's clear imo he's made changes in his game that can be lasting. I'd like to see him take even more three pointers, but the way he's playing now shows that he's on a very good trajectory at 22yo.

Yeah, but Beal had a career 2P% of .435 up until his injury in December this season. Suddenly, in the past 15 games, his 2P% has climbed to .582. That massive improvement isn't solely attributable to a slight uptick in the number of shots at the rim. Yeah, upping his rim attempts from roughly 20% of his shots to 22.5% of his shots has helped a little, but the real difference is that his FG% from 3-10 feet has improved from roughly .340 to .424, and his midrange jumpers have improved from roughly .360 to .420. This isn't primarily an improvement in shot selection, it's a significant improvement in making shots. And he's doing it all despite a significant reduction in his percentage of assisted baskets.

Don't get me wrong. I hope it continues. And I've seen him do some things, like develop a floater, that makes me believe it might continue. But I'm not sold yet.

*Note: Those shooting percentages from at the rim, 3-10 feet, and midrange are from the yearly numbers you posted. I suspect if we could break out the last 15 games, we'd see dramatically higher numbers, which again makes me suspicious if it's sustainable. It looks like a hot streak to me.

[Ruzious]

I think a good part of the improvement is that he's coming in fresh off the bench - playing against either reserves or starters that are winded. The decrease in minutes does make a major difference, imo - especially with most teams trying to increase their pace.

[Illmatic12]

Beal is continuing to play very well.

He had a rotten start in the first half of the Utah game, going 1-6 IIRC, but he finished strong in the second half to end up with a nice stat line: 16 points, 3 boards, 3 assists, .571TS% in 24 minutes.

He posted 17 points, 1 board and 3 assists in 26 minutes against Detroit, with a TS% of .751. He continues to blow his free throws, shooting 1 for 3 including a patented miss on a technical FT.

Since his return from injury, he has been extremely efficient offensively, with a TS% of .621. However, he is doing it by shooting an unsustainable .582 from 2-point range while averaging just 4.2 FTA's per 36 minutes. I'm not sure if he can keep that up.

'2-point range' include shots at the rim.. you realize Beal isn't only shooting jumpers, right?




Beal is taking the majority of his shots at the rim or from 3pt range (both at career highs in attempts). As long as he keeps up that shot distribution he can be efficient. Of course not 62% TS efficient, but it's clear imo he's made changes in his game that can be lasting. I'd like to see him take even more three pointers, but the way he's playing now shows that he's on a very good trajectory at 22yo.

Yeah, but Beal had a career 2P% of .435 up until his injury in December this season. Suddenly, in the past 15 games, his 2P% has climbed to .582. That massive improvement isn't solely attributable to a slight uptick in the number of shots at the rim. Yeah, upping his rim attempts from roughly 20% of his shots to 22.5% of his shots has helped a little, but the real difference is that his FG% from 3-10 feet has improved from roughly .340 to .424, and his midrange jumpers have improved from roughly .360 to .420. This isn't primarily an improvement in shot selection, it's a significant improvement in making shots. And he's doing it all despite a significant reduction in his percentage of assisted baskets.

Don't get me wrong. I hope it continues. And I've seen him do some things, like develop a floater, that makes me believe it might continue. But I'm not sold yet.

*Note: Those shooting percentages from at the rim, 3-10 feet, and midrange are from the yearly numbers you posted. I suspect if we could break out the last 15 games, we'd see dramatically higher numbers, which again makes me suspicious if it's sustainable. It looks like a hot streak to me.

Beal always had a picture-perfect shooting form, he just didn't always have his legs under him. Seems to me that he's simply gotten stronger with age and more repetition. His legs are stronger, and he goes up stronger around the rim or when taking contact on drives. Like you mentioned, he's added a floater and with each passing game I'm noticing a variety of hesitation moves he uses to create space.

His last ~15 games are probably a hot streak with 60+ TS% shooting, but every good shooter goes through those unconscious streaks - that can't possibly be painted as a negative. It wouldn't be surprising that he's gotten stronger and matured as a player. After all, players don't peak at 21yo and Brad came into the league as a growing teenager.