2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[Illmatic12]

What's everyone's love affair with Jones when Donatas is better and shoots the 3-ball better as well. I'd hope to sign him instead. Not drafting Portis really sucks now

DMo is better, he also likely isn't available.

The Rockets won't extend Howard, DMo, AND Jones - they will keep DMo who played well for them last year and can play both PF and C. Jones is a PF only, and there isn't much room for him to grow into a larger role on the team. Doesn't mean he isn't talented, the fit just isn't right.

[Ruzious]

What's everyone's love affair with Jones when Donatas is better and shoots the 3-ball better as well. I'd hope to sign him instead. Not drafting Portis really sucks now

DMo is better, he also likely isn't available.

The Rockets won't extend Howard, DMo, AND Jones - they will keep DMo who played well for them last year and can play both PF and C. Jones is a PF only, and there isn't much room for him to grow into a larger role on the team. Doesn't mean he isn't talented, the fit just isn't right.

I've always thought Donatas was on the soft side and seemed to avoid physical play. But he is a skilled 7 footer. I'd prefer Jones - who appears to be much stronger.

[nate33]

What's everyone's love affair with Jones when Donatas is better and shoots the 3-ball better as well. I'd hope to sign him instead. Not drafting Portis really sucks now

DMo is better, he also likely isn't available.

The Rockets won't extend Howard, DMo, AND Jones - they will keep DMo who played well for them last year and can play both PF and C. Jones is a PF only, and there isn't much room for him to grow into a larger role on the team. Doesn't mean he isn't talented, the fit just isn't right.

This. I like DMo a bit more because of his ability to slide over to the 5, but I'm assuming Houston likes him for that same reason. Houston has Capella to play the 4 and a slew of wings who can also handle spot duty at the 4. They may be less inclined to pay big money to keep Jones so Jones is the guy I'd target.

[pcbothwel]

What's everyone's love affair with Jones when Donatas is better and shoots the 3-ball better as well. I'd hope to sign him instead. Not drafting Portis really sucks now

DMo is better, he also likely isn't available.

The Rockets won't extend Howard, DMo, AND Jones - they will keep DMo who played well for them last year and can play both PF and C. Jones is a PF only, and there isn't much room for him to grow into a larger role on the team. Doesn't mean he isn't talented, the fit just isn't right.

When I compare the two over their first three years (top link) and last year (Bottom Link), I see that Jones has been a more efficient scorer, better rebounder, Blocked more shots, better defender, and turned it over less... What am I missing?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&y1=2015&p1=motiedo01&y2=2015&p2=joneste01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2015&p1=motiedo01&y2=2015&p2=joneste01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

[Illmatic12]

What's everyone's love affair with Jones when Donatas is better and shoots the 3-ball better as well. I'd hope to sign him instead. Not drafting Portis really sucks now

DMo is better, he also likely isn't available.

The Rockets won't extend Howard, DMo, AND Jones - they will keep DMo who played well for them last year and can play both PF and C. Jones is a PF only, and there isn't much room for him to grow into a larger role on the team. Doesn't mean he isn't talented, the fit just isn't right.

When I compare the two over their first three years (top link) and last year (Bottom Link), I see that Jones has been a more efficient scorer, better rebounder, Blocked more shots, better defender, and turned it over less... What am I missing?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&y1=2015&p1=motiedo01&y2=2015&p2=joneste01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2015&p1=motiedo01&y2=2015&p2=joneste01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

That's a fair question, and it's why I targeted Jones as a guy who could be a steal for us (because the general perception, and feeling among Rockets fans is that Motiejunas is the higher upside guy more worth keeping - maybe that isn't the case)

Rather than using stats, I would say it's more of a stylistic thing. DMo has been injured a lot, but when healthy he's shown the ability to hold his own against top big men. He's got a more patient, high IQ game in the low post vs Jones and his size gives him advantages defensively. TJones is more of an 'x-factor'/tweener guy who succeeds by taking advantage of mismatches, whereas DMo is your classic high IQ 7-footer who can score, pass out of the post, and defend his position solidly. Given Howard's health issues, Houston would rather hold on to the 7-footer who can hold down their C position for the future.

I think Jones has less value to Houston simply because he's a PF whereas DMo is a PF/C - yet Jones could very well end up being the more valuable player on another team, if he's developed in the right system. That's why he's a perfect target imo, his value is being artificially deflated by his current team situation. I could see him turning into someone like Paul Millsap in a few years, all the tools are there for him to be that type of player.


Also: Re Portis since he was mentioned above - don't know why people think Portis is a center when he's clearly a PF at the NBA level. He's basically a less athletic, lower-ceiling version of Jones, maybe he's a better rebounder/hustle guy but that's about it. He doesn't block shots or possess the defensive ceiling to guard centers or be a paint anchor.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Whiteside and Terrance Jones would put Wizards at championship level.


"Trade down and draft Demarcus Cousins plus a pick" 2010
"Kirk Cousins will be a starting QB" (even over Griffin) 2012
Dejuan Blair is as good as ever. 2015

[closg00]

Jimmer was the MVP in the D-League all-star game, is there any chance of Jimmer coming back and being useful in limited NBA minutes as a shooter?

[dckingsfan]

Jimmer was the MVP in the D-League all-star game, is there any chance of Jimmer coming back and being useful in limited NBA minutes as a shooter?

I don't think so... I think he is even more a defensive liability than Neal (IMO).

[dckingsfan]

So, I guess the question is how to turn our current position from lemons to lemonade. Do you renew Sessions or go a different way wiht the backup PG? Do you max out Beal? Do you roll the dice and bring over Satoransky. Or both? Do you let Porter/Oubre grow into their rolls or move one? Can you move Humphries or Gooden or just accept that they are your PFs (or at least backups)? Do you (can you) get a rim protector behind Gortat.

When I see the current state - I just don't think that EG can get it done in an efficient manner. Guess I am a pessimist.

Code: Select all

Player            2016-17
John Wall       $16,957,900
Marcin Gortat   $12,000,000
Otto Porter      $5,893,981
Kris Humphries   $4,600,000
Drew Gooden      $3,600,000
Kelly Oubre      $2,006,640
12th Pick        $1,931,900
Martell Webster    $830,000
Team Totals     $47,820,421


Code: Select all

PG    Wall   
SG      
SF    Porter      Oubre
PF    Humphries   Gooden
C     Gortat   


[closg00]

So, I guess the question is how to turn our current position from lemons to lemonade. Do you renew Sessions or go a different way wiht the backup PG? Do you max out Beal? Do you roll the dice and bring over Satoransky. Or both? Do you let Porter/Oubre grow into their rolls or move one? Can you move Humphries or Gooden or just accept that they are your PFs (or at least backups)? Do you (can you) get a rim protector behind Gortat.

When I see the current state - I just don't think that EG can get it done in an efficient manner. Guess I am a pessimist.

Code: Select all

Player            2016-17
John Wall       $16,957,900
Marcin Gortat   $12,000,000
Otto Porter      $5,893,981
Kris Humphries   $4,600,000
Drew Gooden      $3,600,000
Kelly Oubre      $2,006,640
12th Pick        $1,931,900
Martell Webster    $830,000
Team Totals     $47,820,421


Code: Select all

PG    Wall   
SG      
SF    Porter      Oubre
PF    Humphries   Gooden
C     Gortat   


How could one EVER be an optimist as-long as EG is running this operation?

[pcbothwel]

I'm in Whiteside camp as I think it gives us the most flexibility. You can keep Gortat as backup in the near term because his age, Whitesides foul trouble and poor free throw shooting, and their contrasting strengths as Centers.

Draft:
At 12, you take one of the 4/5's that will be there out of:
Ellenson
Rabb
Zimmerman
Brice Johnson
Deyonta Davis

FA:
I think you can sign Sato and Sessions to a total of about 7M in salary for 2016
The remaining 4.5-5M is used to retain Hump, sign Dudley, or trade for another 4 with our 2017 1st.
The room exception can be used to bring in depth like Nene
Im sure a vet like Alan Anderson would also be interesting for the vet min.

Roster:

Whiteside $22,500,000
John Wall  $16,957,900
Marcin Gortat  $12,000,000
Bradley Beal $14,734,954
Otto Porter  $5,893,981
Sato $3,500,000
Sessions $3,500,000
Kelly Oubre  $2,006,640
12th Pick  $1,931,900
Martell $830,000
Cap Hold $1,500,000
Total $85,355,375
Cap Room $4,644,625

John Wall  - Sessions
Bradley Beal - Sato - Anderson
Otto Porter  - Kelly Oubre  - Anderson
Hump - 12th Pick  - Nene
Whiteside- Marcin Gortat  - Nene

That is a deep team with a core of youth, yet experience. Wall, Beal, Otto, and Whiteside will be 22-26 and you have backups like Sato, Oubre, and our draft pick that will also be young. That leaves you the possibility to make another move during the year or in 2017 by trading Gortat, young player, and future 1st for another piece.

It's no KD, but it aint bad and its very feasible.

[gravytrain24]

Unless EG swings a trade for him, i don't think he comes here. He will get a contract offer that of a starter that will be ridiculous and he wants to start, which wouldn't be able to happy here unless you get rid of Gortat, which won't happen.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I'm in Whiteside camp as I think it gives us the most flexibility. You can keep Gortat as backup in the near term because his age, Whitesides foul trouble and poor free throw shooting, and their contrasting strengths as Centers.

Draft:
At 12, you take one of the 4/5's that will be there out of:
Ellenson
Rabb
Zimmerman
Brice Johnson
Deyonta Davis

FA:
I think you can sign Sato and Sessions to a total of about 7M in salary for 2016
The remaining 4.5-5M is used to retain Hump, sign Dudley, or trade for another 4 with our 2017 1st.
The room exception can be used to bring in depth like Nene
Im sure a vet like Alan Anderson would also be interesting for the vet min.

Roster:

Whiteside $22,500,000
John Wall  $16,957,900
Marcin Gortat  $12,000,000
Bradley Beal $14,734,954
Otto Porter  $5,893,981
Sato $3,500,000
Sessions $3,500,000
Kelly Oubre  $2,006,640
12th Pick  $1,931,900
Martell $830,000
Cap Hold $1,500,000
Total $85,355,375
Cap Room $4,644,625

John Wall  - Sessions
Bradley Beal - Sato - Anderson
Otto Porter  - Kelly Oubre  - Anderson
Hump - 12th Pick  - Nene
Whiteside- Marcin Gortat  - Nene

That is a deep team with a core of youth, yet experience. Wall, Beal, Otto, and Whiteside will be 22-26 and you have backups like Sato, Oubre, and our draft pick that will also be young. That leaves you the possibility to make another move during the year or in 2017 by trading Gortat, young player, and future 1st for another piece.

It's no KD, but it aint bad and its very feasible.

Don't like it. That's a dramatic overpay for someone who's only good on one end of the court. I'm not sure how either of those lineups score consistently enough.

There is no way Hump is a starting caliber 4, a position that may be passing the 1 as the most important in basketball.

[LyricalRico]

Unless EG swings a trade for him, i don't think he comes here. He will get a contract offer that of a starter that will be ridiculous and he wants to start, which wouldn't be able to happy here unless you get rid of Gortat, which won't happen.

Agreed, too much for a purely defensive player on a team without great scoring. (Although if we got KD, I wonder if Miami would agree to a Whiteside S&T where they get Gortat? Could work if they don't want to break the bank for Whiteside. Weren't they the other team that was in on Gortat in 2014?)

But as a Plan B to KD, no I don't like Whiteside on a max contract.

[Hidden Eye]

I'm in Whiteside camp as I think it gives us the most flexibility. You can keep Gortat as backup in the near term because his age, Whitesides foul trouble and poor free throw shooting, and their contrasting strengths as Centers.

Draft:
At 12, you take one of the 4/5's that will be there out of:
Ellenson
Rabb
Zimmerman
Brice Johnson
Deyonta Davis

FA:
I think you can sign Sato and Sessions to a total of about 7M in salary for 2016
The remaining 4.5-5M is used to retain Hump, sign Dudley, or trade for another 4 with our 2017 1st.
The room exception can be used to bring in depth like Nene
Im sure a vet like Alan Anderson would also be interesting for the vet min.

Roster:

Whiteside $22,500,000
John Wall  $16,957,900
Marcin Gortat  $12,000,000
Bradley Beal $14,734,954
Otto Porter  $5,893,981
Sato $3,500,000
Sessions $3,500,000
Kelly Oubre  $2,006,640
12th Pick  $1,931,900
Martell $830,000
Cap Hold $1,500,000
Total $85,355,375
Cap Room $4,644,625

John Wall  - Sessions
Bradley Beal - Sato - Anderson
Otto Porter  - Kelly Oubre  - Anderson
Hump - 12th Pick  - Nene
Whiteside- Marcin Gortat  - Nene

That is a deep team with a core of youth, yet experience. Wall, Beal, Otto, and Whiteside will be 22-26 and you have backups like Sato, Oubre, and our draft pick that will also be young. That leaves you the possibility to make another move during the year or in 2017 by trading Gortat, young player, and future 1st for another piece.

It's no KD, but it aint bad and its very feasible.

Don't like it. That's a dramatic overpay for someone who's only good on one end of the court. I'm not sure how either of those lineups score consistently enough.

There is no way Hump is a starting caliber 4, a position that may be passing the 1 as the most important in basketball.

Yeah you have to see if Gortat is ok playing backup, that does alter the kind of roster the Wizards can have. Porter is going to improve next season there shouldn't be any too many problems scoring. I wouldn't keep Nene for that kind of roster, get a young PF who doesn't have serious injury issues.

[payitforward]

Unless EG swings a trade for him, i don't think he comes here. He will get a contract offer that of a starter that will be ridiculous and he wants to start, which wouldn't be able to happy here unless you get rid of Gortat, which won't happen.

Agreed, too much for a purely defensive player on a team without great scoring. (Although if we got KD, I wonder if Miami would agree to a Whiteside S&T where they get Gortat? Could work if they don't want to break the bank for Whiteside. Weren't they the other team that was in on Gortat in 2014?)

But as a Plan B to KD, no I don't like Whiteside on a max contract.

Me neither, too much risk.

But no way is he "a purely defensive player." He scores 17.3 points every 40 minutes -- on almost 62% shooting! He takes 11.7 shots and makes 7.2 of them, i.e. only 4.5 misses -- and he gets 4.3 of those misses back for his team by way of offensive rebounds!

Still, w/ 11+ defensive boards and 5.5 blocks every 40 minutes as well, you are right that he's a heck of a defensive presence.

In short, he's an elite Center in terms of production. If you could be sure of his temperament, you would for sure give him a max contract, and I imagine someone will.

[payitforward]

...That's a dramatic overpay for (Whiteside) someone who's only good on one end of the court....

I'm trying to figure out where this "only good on one end of the court" stuff is coming from. Whiteside scores at exactly the same rate as Gortat but more efficiently, and he's a better offensive rebounder. I.e. if anything he's the better offensive player of the two.

[queridiculo]

There's a good chance Washington can swing a sign and trade with the Heat if they manage to come to an agreement with Whiteside.

The Heat have serious salary committed to Bosh and Wade still has a couple of years left in those knees. Add Gortat to the mix and you have a team that can still compete in the East.

Miami isn't going to find a center near as productive as Gortat in free agency and certainly not at the salary Gortat is earning.

A bit of risk paying Whiteside that much money, but it beats sitting on your hands hoping a savior is going to drop into your lap.

[pcbothwel]

Don't like it. That's a dramatic overpay for someone who's only good on one end of the court. I'm not sure how either of those lineups score consistently enough.

There is no way Hump is a starting caliber 4, a position that may be passing the 1 as the most important in basketball.

Yeah you have to see if Gortat is ok playing backup, that does alter the kind of roster the Wizards can have. Porter is going to improve next season there shouldn't be any too many problems scoring. I wouldn't keep Nene for that kind of roster, get a young PF who doesn't have serious injury issues.

Hump: I dont disagree on Hump, He was a placeholder as we can use his salary (4.6M) to either sign a FA, retain him, or trade along with pick/young player to get starting 4. Becuase of the various options, I just put his name in there.

Nene: Wait, you think you can get a more effective player than Nene for 2M? Nene's injury risk is mitigated as he becomes the 4th big off the bench and you really only need him for 50-60 games and 5-10 minutes per game. He would arguably be the the best 4th big in the league. On top of that, you dont want to draft some 19-20 y/o bigman and then back him up with another young player with no experience.

[Hidden Eye]

Don't like it. That's a dramatic overpay for someone who's only good on one end of the court. I'm not sure how either of those lineups score consistently enough.

There is no way Hump is a starting caliber 4, a position that may be passing the 1 as the most important in basketball.

Yeah you have to see if Gortat is ok playing backup, that does alter the kind of roster the Wizards can have. Porter is going to improve next season there shouldn't be any too many problems scoring. I wouldn't keep Nene for that kind of roster, get a young PF who doesn't have serious injury issues.

Hump: I dont disagree on Hump, He was a placeholder as we can use his salary (4.6M) to either sign a FA, retain him, or trade along with pick/young player to get starting 4. Becuase of the various options, I just put his name in there.

Nene: Wait, you think you can get a more effective player than Nene for 2M? Nene's injury risk is mitigated as he becomes the 4th big off the bench and you really only need him for 50-60 games and 5-10 minutes per game. He would arguably be the the best 4th big in the league. On top of that, you dont want to draft some 19-20 y/o bigman and then back him up with another young player with no experience.

Hump is serviceable but he needs to be more reliable on offense. For Nene he us a UFA this year and still would be pricey for a third stringer. Really wouldn't get the most usage out of him if he's 3rd guy.